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1.
Estimating the causal effect of fertility on economic wellbeing: data requirements, identifying assumptions and estimation methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This article aims to answer to what extent fertility has a causal effect on households’ economic wellbeing—an issue that has received considerable interest in development studies and policy analysis. However, only recently has this literature begun to give importance to adequate modelling for estimation of causal effects. We discuss several strategies for causal inference, stressing that their validity must be judged on the assumptions we can plausibly formulate in a given application, which in turn depends on the richness of available data. We contrast methods relying on the unconfoundedness assumption, which include regressions and propensity score matching, with instrumental variable methods. This discussion has a general importance, representing a set of guidelines that are useful for choosing an appropriate strategy of analysis. The discussion is valid for both cross-sectional or panel data. 相似文献
2.
Ludo Waltman Nees Jan van Eck Rommert Dekker Uzay Kaymak 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2011,21(5):737-756
We are concerned with evolutionary algorithms that are employed for economic modeling purposes. We focus in particular on
evolutionary algorithms that use a binary encoding of strategies. These algorithms, commonly referred to as genetic algorithms,
are popular in agent-based computational economics research. In many studies, however, there is no clear reason for the use
of a binary encoding of strategies. We therefore examine to what extent the use of such an encoding may influence the results
produced by an evolutionary algorithm. It turns out that the use of a binary encoding can have quite significant effects.
Since these effects do not have a meaningful economic interpretation, they should be regarded as artifacts. Our findings indicate
that in general the use of a binary encoding is undesirable. They also highlight the importance of employing evolutionary
algorithms with a sensible economic interpretation. 相似文献
3.
M. Ray Perryman 《Journal of economic issues》2013,47(2):375-381
Thorstein Veblen's class analysis implicitly was a critique of the class analysis of some Marxists, who reduced the interdependence of economic base and ideological superstructure to a causal link from the former to the latter. Veblen's emphasis on the directive to take culture into account occurs later in Antonio Gramsci's theoretical innovations: namely, class struggle for cultural hegemony and the importance of the organic intellectual as ferment for class emergence. Gramsci was experiencing the mass movement of fascism, and the (now) classic analysis of social classes became an urgently needed extension to explain class evolution. Today, capitalism is in deep crisis once again. This paper argues that the drivers of the next revolutionary upheaval will, once more, be the social classes — particularly, the newly emerging ones. We graft ideas of Veblen onto concepts suggested by Gramsci to enhance the theoretical toolbox necessary to understand contemporary global class dynamics. 相似文献
4.
The incentives to conduct basic or applied research play a central role for economic growth. How does increasing early innovation appropriability affect basic research, applied research, innovation and growth? In a common law system an explicitly dynamic macroeconomic analysis is appropriate. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of patent protection by incorporating a two-stage cumulative innovation structure into a quality-ladder growth model with endogenous skill acquisition. We focus on two issues: (a) the over-protection versus the under-protection of intellectual property rights in basic research; (b) the evolution of jurisprudence shaping the bargaining power of the upstream innovators. We show that the dynamic general equilibrium interactions may seriously mislead the empirical assessment of the growth effects of IPR policy: stronger protection of upstream innovation always looks bad in the short- and possibly medium-run. We also provide a simple “rule of thumb” indicator of the basic researcher bargaining power. 相似文献
5.
What are the effects of strengthening developing countries’ protection for intellectual property rights on economic growth and income inequality in the global economy? To analyze this question, we develop a two-country R&;D-based growth model with wealth heterogeneity. In this growth-theoretic framework, we show that strengthening patent protection in either country increases economic growth and income inequality in both countries. Furthermore, we derive the Nash equilibrium level of patent breadth and find that it is sub-optimally low relative to globally optimal patent breadth due to the positive externality effects that are captured by a spillover parameter. 相似文献
6.
Nevin Cavusoglu 《Economic Modelling》2012,29(6):2362-2370
Many papers have analyzed the factors affecting economic growth. However, these have concentrated on direct effects and ignored indirect effects through other variables in the model. This study investigates direct and indirect effects of various factors on growth with a causal growth model using LISREL (LInear Structural RELations) for a sample of 105 countries over the period of 1975–2002. Results suggest that ignoring the indirect effects of productivity growth, geography and economic development on economic growth may lead to a considerable underestimation of their ‘true’ total effects on growth. While the importance of the indirect effects of productivity growth and geography relative to their direct effects changes with the estimated model, the relative importance of the indirect effect of economic development on growth is found to be robust to different model specifications. 相似文献
7.
This paper examines the long-run equilibrium and the existence and direction of a causal relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness for India. Our main contribution to the literature on Indian studies lies in the investigation of the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and using single country data. The results suggest that there is evidence on the long-run and causal relationships between carbon emissions, financial development, income, energy use and trade openness. Financial development has a long-run positive impact on carbon emissions, implying that financial development improves environmental degradation. Moreover, Granger causality test indicates a long-run unidirectional causality running from financial development to carbon emissions and energy use. The evidence suggests that financial system should take into account the environment aspect in their current operations. The results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision-makers in order to develop energy policies for India that contribute to the curbing of carbon emissions while preserving economic growth. 相似文献
8.
Kais Saidi 《International economic journal》2013,27(3):483-497
ABSTRACTThis essay empirically studies the effects and causal links between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development (FD) and economic growth. The sample consists of the main economies of low-income countries and the study covers the period 1990–2015. The results of the estimate show that, under certain specific economic conditions, FDI affects positively the level of long-term economic growth; it thus makes it possible to improve the economic situation of these countries. Using Johansen’s cointegration technique, the results find that FD; FDI and GDP growth are cointegrated, that shows the pursuit of the long-term equilibrium relationship between them. The error correction model confirms the existence of a double causal relationship between FDI and GDP growth, and between FD and FDI and between GDP growth and FD. 相似文献
9.
《Journal of Comparative Economics》2022,50(4):1103-1122
This paper examines the causal effects of competition on governments’ incentives in decentralizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs). By using the shocks to product market competition caused by China's trade liberalization, we find that competition substantially improves SOEs’ decentralization. Furthermore, we also provide evidence of the incentive to exploit local information and roll out an alternative interpretation that government divests itself of SOEs because they become burdensome. Finally, we find that the effect of competition on decentralization is augmented when governments are geographically distant from their SOEs or when SOEs are located in regions characterized by low social trust, high dialect diversity, or heavy pressure for economic growth. 相似文献
10.
《Games and Economic Behavior》2010,68(2):481-502
Are initial competitive advantages self-reinforcing, so that markets exhibit an endogenous tendency to be dominated by only a few firms? Although this question is of great economic importance, no systematic empirical study has yet addressed it. Therefore, we examine experimentally whether firms with an initial cost advantage are more likely to invest in marginal cost reductions than firms with higher initial costs. We find that the initial competitive advantages are indeed self-reinforcing, but subjects in the role of firms overinvest relative to the Nash equilibrium. However, the pattern of overinvestment even strengthens the tendency towards self-reinforcing cost advantages relative to the theoretical prediction. Further, as predicted by the Nash equilibrium, mean-preserving spreads of the initial cost distribution have no effects on aggregate investments. Finally, investment spillovers reduce investment, and investment is higher than the joint-profit maximizing benchmark for the case without spillovers and lower for the case with spillovers. 相似文献
11.
Daniel Halbheer Ernst Fehr Lorenz Goette Armin Schmutzler 《Games and Economic Behavior》2009,67(2):481-502
Are initial competitive advantages self-reinforcing, so that markets exhibit an endogenous tendency to be dominated by only a few firms? Although this question is of great economic importance, no systematic empirical study has yet addressed it. Therefore, we examine experimentally whether firms with an initial cost advantage are more likely to invest in marginal cost reductions than firms with higher initial costs. We find that the initial competitive advantages are indeed self-reinforcing, but subjects in the role of firms overinvest relative to the Nash equilibrium. However, the pattern of overinvestment even strengthens the tendency towards self-reinforcing cost advantages relative to the theoretical prediction. Further, as predicted by the Nash equilibrium, mean-preserving spreads of the initial cost distribution have no effects on aggregate investments. Finally, investment spillovers reduce investment, and investment is higher than the joint-profit maximizing benchmark for the case without spillovers and lower for the case with spillovers. 相似文献
12.
In this study, we examine the effects of capital taxation on innovation and economic growth in an R&D-based growth model. We find that capital taxation has drastically different effects in the short run and in the long run. An increase in the capital income tax rate has both a consumption effect and a tax-shifting effect on the equilibrium growth rates of technology and output. In the short run, the consumption effect dominates the tax-shifting effect causing an initial negative effect of capital taxation on the equilibrium growth rates. However, in the long run, the tax-shifting effect becomes the dominant force yielding an overall positive effect of capital taxation on steady-state economic growth. These contrasting effects of capital taxation at different time horizons may provide a theoretical explanation for the mixed evidence in the empirical literature on capital taxation and economic growth. 相似文献
13.
The paper argues that: 1. Contrary to the claims of the theory of monopoly capital, the level of competition has had a tendency to increase under capitalism due to the lowering of the costs of transport and communications, the development and dispersion of the techniques of business calculation and the increase in the quantity and the quality of business information. 2. The theory of monopoly capital is based on a questionable causal interpretation of a static equilibrium relation. 3. The empirical evidence of declining profitability cannot be explained by an increased degree of monopoly. 相似文献
14.
Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects. 相似文献
15.
《Review of Development Economics》2018,22(2):507-539
This paper develops a general equilibrium model that incorporates specific features pertaining to developing countries: a large informal sector and rural–urban migration. A calibrated version of the model is used to study the effects of energy tax changes and a reduction in agricultural‐sector energy subsidies on labor market outcomes. The results indicate that the incidence of energy taxes is partly shifted on to the rural sector through rural–urban migration. The results thus highlight the importance of modeling the features particular to developing countries and the economic general equilibrium effects when assessing the impact of environmental taxation in those countries. 相似文献
16.
Abstract We examine how structural systems can yield observed variables instrumental in identifying and estimating causal effects. We provide an exhaustive characterization of potentially identifying conditional exogeneity relationships and demonstrate how structural relations determine exogeneity and exclusion restrictions that yield moment conditions supporting identification. This provides a comprehensive framework for constructing instruments and covariates. We introduce notions of conditioning and conditional extended instrumental variables (XIVs). These permit identification but need not be traditional instruments, as they may be endogenous. We distinguish between observed XIVs and proxies for unobserved XIVs. A main message is the importance of sufficiently specifying causal relations governing the unobservables. 相似文献
17.
We study the effects of an economic policy in an endogenous growth general equilibrium framework where production of consumption
goods requires two resource inputs: a polluting non-renewable resource and a non-polluting labour resource. The use of the
former contributes to the accumulation of pollution in the atmosphere, which affects welfare. There is a specific research
sector associated with each of those resources. We provide a full welfare analysis, and we describe the equilibrium paths
in a decentralized economy. We go on to study the effects of three associated economic policy tools: a tax on the polluting
resource, and two research subsidies. We show that the optimal environmental policy has two main effects; it delays the extraction
of the resource and with it the level of polluting emissions and it reallocates research efforts, decreasing the amount put
into “grey” research to the benefit of “green” research. We also show that the environmental policy is grey-biased in the
short-term, and green-biased in the long-term. Finally, we compute the optimal values for these tools.
相似文献
18.
We explore whether national economic prosperity enhances mutual generalized trust. This is done using a panel data of multiple waves of the World Values Surveys, whereby national income levels are instrumented for using exogenous oil price shocks. We find significant and substantial effects of national income on the level of trust in the economy. In particular, a 1% increase in national income tends to cause an average increase of 1 percentage point (or more) in the likelihood that a person becomes trustful. We also identify crime and corruption as potential mechanisms that may lead to the reported causal effect and explore heterogeneous effects across individuals. 相似文献
19.
ABSTRACTWe investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio. 相似文献
20.
Matthias Kelm 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1997,7(2):97-130
A general Darwinian framework is employed to arrive at an interpretation of Schumpeter's work that brings out clearly its
specific evolutionary aspects. Schumpeter's theory of economic evolution is seen to be still highly relevant to evolutionary
economics, because it sheds light on some fundamental issues: the relationship between evolutionary theory and equilibrium
analysis, the usefulness of Darwinian theory for economics, and the precise nature of the evolutionary forces at work in economic
systems. 相似文献