Home and regional biases and border effects in Armington type models

We discuss biases in preferences and their trade effects in terms of impacts on non-neutral trade flows motivated by recent literature on both home bias and the border effect. These terms take on multiple definitions in the literature and are often used interchangeably even though they differ. The border effect refers to a higher proclivity to trade behind rather than across national borders and is usually defined by the coefficients of regional dummies from an estimated gravity model. It can be present both in data and in counterfactual model solutions. Sometimes the reduced form of the gravity model used is asserted to reflect an Armington type model. For the border effect to occur as a model outcome, a structural model with at least 2 home regions and 1 country abroad is needed. In contrast to current literature, we offer a characterization of various forms of preference bias in trade models and measures of their associated trade effects based on a concept we term trade neutrality. These effects go beyond conventional border effects, and can be both across and within borders. Home bias is typically specified as an Armington preference for domestic over comparable foreign products in a trade model where goods are heterogeneous across countries. It is reflected in both model structure and parameterization, but defined in several different ways in the literature. We assess the contribution of each form of bias to the set of possible trade effects using a calibrated model with 3 Canadian regions, the U.S., and the rest of the world using 2001 data. We also evaluate how much of the conventional border effect is accounted for when model biases are modified in various ways.     

Emissions Trading and Profitability: The Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry

The purpose of this paper is to develop models with and without potential emissions trading and to compare industry profits under the two regimes. The model in which emissions trading is permitted is a nonparametric industry frontier model in the spirit of Färe et al. (1992). It is relative to this model that industry profit is computed. This profit is compared to the profit without emissions trading to give an estimate of the potential gains that can be realised by allowing for emissions trading. The model, which is applied to data for the Swedish pulp and paper industry, suggests that this industry would have had up to 6% (1%) higher profits in 1989 (1990) if emissions trading had been used instead of individual permits to achieve the same total emissions target. Currently there is no permit trading in this industry so our results only model the potential gains that can be made.     

商业模式价值逻辑的要素、框架及演化研究：回顾与展望

当前，在商业模式领域，研究视角多元化是一个突出特征，学者们积极发掘新视角来认识商业模式。随着“价值”概念导入商业模式领域，基于价值视角的商业模式研究开始兴起，众多学者积极从价值角度解读商业模式，意图揭示商业模式背后的价值逻辑,价值主张、价值创造、价值分配、价值传递、价值获取等相关概念频繁地出现在商业模式研究中。通过对现有研究进行系统梳理，阐释商业模式领域关于价值、价值主张、价值创造及价值传递等相关概念的特定内涵，分析不同概念间逻辑关系，并在此基础上，提炼商业模式价值逻辑框架、演化动因及方式，从而促进对商业模式价值逻辑思维的理解与关注，特别是对商业模式研究新进入者起到一定引导作用，为企业管理实践提供有益启示。     

A new Keynesian framework and wage and price dynamics in the USA

This paper investigates theoretical implications from a new Keynesian model focusing on the labor market, by imposing them as testable restrictions in an estimated vector error correction model on US data from 1982Q3 to 2016Q1. By this, I conduct an important, but rarely addressed, step in assessing the empirical relevance of a theoretical new Keynesian model. Another advantage of this approach is that the cycle and trend components of the data are separated when imposing the testable restrictions, such that there is no need to filter the data series prior to estimation. The results show that most of the properties pertaining to the theoretical model cannot be rejected when imposed as restrictions. The new Keynesian model on the labor market is thus found to be empirically relevant. Furthermore, the estimated econometric model explains a large degree of the wage and price dynamics in the USA, such that the paper also provides an estimated macroeconometric model.     

Information and Communication Technology as Technical Change in Matching and Production

In this paper, we integrate two workhorse models in economics: The monopolistic competition model of Dixit and Stiglitz and the search unemployment model of Pissarides. Information and communication technology (ICT) is interpreted as a (i) technical progress in the matching function of the Pissarides labor market search model, where it is increasing the probability of filling a vacancy, and (ii) technical change in the production function of the Dixit-Stiglitz goods market model where it is increasing fixed costs and decreasing variable costs. All effects together, modeled as a permanent once-and-for-all ICT and internet shock, increase the vacancy/unemployment ratio, decrease the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate, and increase wages.     

新商业模式的二元性:合法性与异质性

商业模式的成型和成功,依赖于商业模式的二元性,即合法性与异质性。基于3721网络实名商业模式的案例分析发现,商业模式内外部合法性是商业模式现实成型的基础,而商业模式在竞争中取胜则需要焦点企业创建和维持商业模式的异质性。新商业模式功能的实现需要大量利益相关者共同努力,而在此过程中,作为一个新知识体系的商业模式,存在被竞争对手学习、模仿的可能,这必将削弱新商业模式的异质性。但是,基于商业模式的活动元理论,活动元的设计与配置是新商业模式二元性的决定因素。     

Housing cycles and efficiency

This paper has four objectives. First, a small model of the UK housing market is constructed, including equations for house prices, housing starts, construction costs and interest rates. The model is used in an analysis of housing market cycles, employing techniques developed for the analysis of general business cycles. Second, the model is used to consider housing market efficiency. Third, the model is extended to examine the relationship between house prices and property transactions. Finally, the role of monetary policy in the generation of housing cycles and stability is discussed.     

Evaluating inflation persistence considering model uncertainty and structural break

There is little consensus about the historical change in inflation persistence. One of the reasons is that researchers cannot choose a uniform model structure due to model uncertainty. In this study, a model to investigate inflation persistence is proposed. Unlike previous studies, I try to overcome model uncertainty by being agnostic about the structure of the model. Estimation results indicate that inflation has become less persistent over time, implying that inflation persistence is related to the way how monetary policy is conducted.     

Habit persistence and stagnation

Using a money-in-the-utility function model that incorporates habit formation in consumption, we consider the question of how allowing for habit formation affects the possibility of a persistent shortage of consumption. We then contrast the model without habits with a model with habits. The main findings of our analysis are that i) when the degree of habit formation is important, a high degree of habit persistence opens up the possibility of a shortage of consumption, and ii) in the steady state with stagnation, the equilibrium consumption in the model with habit formation is smaller than the corresponding consumption without habits.     

IS model: A general model of forecasting and its applications in science and the economy

Expanding the work of Marchetti and Modis on Lotka-Volterra competition systems, a general model of Interaction Systems (IS) is introduced to describe the dynamics of multiple member interactions among different populations concerning not only biological systems but other types of systems as well. The new IS model provides us with a general framework of analysis and forecasting, where all parameters, variables, and interactions have real meaning, by using basic knowledge of each system.The proposed model can be applied to many different fields covering economic, business, social, physical, and other phenomena giving us both numerical estimates and qualitative insights of the system's dynamics. This is illustrated in two case studies. In the first case, the IS model is applied to elementary chemical reactions in order to quantify the reactions' kinetics. The result is the well known rate law of chemical reactions kinetics thus providing evidence of the proposed model's validity. In the second case, the IS model is applied to the global economy. The resulting model is tested against real global GDP data. The new IS model gave reliable estimates and proved to be considerably more accurate as compared to a similar forecast of global GDP based on the logistic growth model. Furthermore, the new model presented a basic framework of understanding the nature of major economic shifts, including the recent global recession of 2009, by studying the dynamic relationship between demand and supply.     

Population growth and economic growth

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize the exponential growth of population as the source of several complications for economic growth and human welfare. Stabilization of population by reducing fertility is conducive for improving the quality of population and also advances the longterm management of the population growth and work force utilization. The perspective of longterm economic management involves populatio n planning, control of environmental pollution, conservation of scarce resources, exploration of resources, realization of technological possibilities in agriculture and industry and in farm and factory, and achievement of economic growth and its equitable distribution.     

交通信号灯与拍卖机制——对市场与制度关系的一个案例研究

肖特的交通博弈模型表明,当还不具备足够的技术条件有效降低交易成本的情况下,更为可行的制度可以成为价格机制的替代,然而其模型并不足以证明制度与市场价格机制的替代关系。现代技术条件使得十字路口价格机制的实现成为可能,因此也表明了制度与市场价格机制并非简单的替代关系。模型的发展演变反映了奥地利学派的自发市场秩序观更为具有解释力。     

商业模式与企业战略的关系与相互作用

商业模式是企业战略制定的结果、实施的依据,两者会共享某些要素。企业战略的本质特点是时序的、纵向的行动和过程,而商业模式的本质特点则是空间的、横向的方式和状态,两者之间具有交融关系。不同竞争优势来源之间具有互补性和关联性,它们与商业模式在关键要素构成和价值创造方面具有一致性。商业模式对竞争优势来源等企业战略具有系统整合作用,而企业战略和创新理论对商业模式具有理论支撑作用。     

Directed search, unemployment and public policy

Abstract .  We examine the effects of public policy parameters in a simple directed search model of the labour market, and contrast them with those in standard random matching models with Nash bargaining. Both finite and limit versions of the directed search model are considered, and the value of the limit model as an approximation of the finite one is assessed. As with the random matching model, job creation is the key channel through which the policy parameters affect the equilibrium of the directed search model. Both comparative static effects of the policy parameters and optimal configurations are identified.     

数字化商业模式研究回顾与展望

在数字经济时代，利用数字技术特性设计和实现能够充分发挥数字化潜能、具有数字化特征的商业模式是企业最重要的能力之一，有利于企业在高度不确定性数字环境中发展壮大。在此背景下，数字化商业模式实践的大量涌现引发了愈来愈多的理论关注，但作为新兴研究议题，数字化商业模式研究尚存在概念不清、研究分散等问题。鉴于此，首先对数字化商业模式进行溯源，解析数字化商业模式概念和类型；其次，对数字化商业模式内在机制、前因后果等文献进行细致梳理，构建数字化商业模式理论框架；最后，基于上述文献梳理，展望数字化商业模式未来研究方向。研究结论可为推进数字化商业模式研究进展、启发数字化商业模式创新实践提供参考。     

信息化程度及地理分布对区域创新投入产出效应的影响

基于知识传递的创新扩散理论,利用2006—2008年广东省21个地级市的相关数据进行探索性分析,构建包含信息化水平要素的创新投入与产出的计量模型。结果表明,广东省21个地级市创新产出之间存在空间关联,考虑空间因素的计量结果得到一定改善;创新资本积累是区域创新产出增长的核心动力,创新人力投入和信息化水平的提高对区域创新产出的促进作用不显著,但引入信息化水平要素后降低了空间关联系数的显著性并使模型效果得到改善。     

On trees and logs

In this paper we contrast the main workhorse model in asset pricing theory, the Lucas (1978) tree model (LT-Model), to a benchmark model in financial equilibrium theory, the real assets model (RA-Model). It is commonly believed that the two models entail similar conclusions since the LT-Model is a special case of the RA-Model. But this is simply wrong: implications of these models can be strikingly at odds. Indeed, under the widely used log-linear specification of households’ preferences, we show that for a large set of initial endowments the LT-Model—even with potentially complete financial markets—admits only peculiar financial equilibria in which the stock market is completely degenerate, in that all stocks offer the same investment opportunity—and yet, allocation is Pareto optimal. We investigate why the LT-Model is so much at variance with the RA-Model, and uncover new results on uniqueness of financial equilibria and introduction of portfolio constraints obtaining in the LT-Model, but not in the RA-Model.     

Return-to-normal expectations and investment demand functions

This paper analyzes an adjustment-cost model of optimal investment behavior under return-to-normal expectations. The model yields two implications that are of interest for the interpretation of empirical work on investment behavior. One is that the model rationalizes the proposition that only permanent, as distinct from temporary, changes in expected prices will have a strong sustained effect on investment. A second is that the model provides an explanation for the humped-shaped nature of the lag distributions that have been estimated in the empirical literature.     

Knowledge, economic geography, and growth in a two-group island economy

This paper proposes a two-group urban model with endogenous capital and knowledge accumulation in an isolated island economy. The model examines the dynamic interdependence among knowledge utilization, creativity, transportation conditions, savings behavior, location choice, and residential pattern in a just two-group island economy. Although it is constructed with some strict assumptions, the model is quite general in the sense that the well-known models, such as the Solow-Swan model, the Kaldor-Pasinetti two-group model, and the Alonso model, can be considered, from a structural point of view, as its special cases. The knowledge accumulation in our model is based upon Arrow's learning-by-doing model. It is proved that the system may have a unique or multiple equilibria and each equilibrium may be stable or unstable, depending upon knowledge utilization and creation characteristics of the two groups. We also examine the impact of changes in the population and knowledge creation efficiency of two groups on long-run growth, wealth distribution, and residential structure.     

Intertemporal Choice,Saving and Investment,and Interest Rate: Contributions from a Neglected Hayekian Model

Hayek’s ‘Utility analysis and interest’ expounds a graphical model of intertemporal choice that has not received the attention it deserves. This model is important in that it can be used as a basic macroeconomic model and can therefore perform for the Austrian School the role that the Solow model plays for the standard neo-classical paradigm. This article provides an in-depth presentation of the Hayekian model, and then applies the model to key theoretical issues in macroeconomics; namely, the effects upon intertemporal equilibrium and upon the interest rate of a change in time preference, of the implementation of a technical development and of an increase in the supply of labor.