Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets

Market efficiency and unbiasedness are tested in four agricultural commodity futures markets - live cattle, hogs, corn, and soybean meal - using cointegration and error correction models with GQARCH-in-mean processes. Results indicate each market is unbiased in the long run, although cattle, hogs and corn futures markets exhibit short-run inefficiencies and pricing biases. Models for cattle and corn outperform futures prices in out-of-sample forecasting. Results also suggest short-run time-varying risk premiums in cattle and hog futures markets.     

Market orientation and performance in the biotechnology industry: An exploratory empirical analysis

The purpose ofthis study was to conduct an exploratory investigation into the link between market orientation and business performance in the biotechnology sector. Based on the nature and character of the biotechnology industry, a multi-faceted scale of market orientation was derived from a preuiously tested and refined measure of the construct. Data were generated from 62 biotechnolog firms and a variety of market orientation-performance relationships were investigated, alongside other potential effects on the different dimensions of business performance. The findings indicate that market orientation is positively and signficanttly associated with three of the four performance measures examined. Implications of our findings for biotechnology industry managers are discussed and limitations of the study as well as future research directions are addressed.     

An empirical analysis of the European Union's impact on Spanish economic performance

This paper investigates, for the first time, whether there is a relationship between international trade and international travel flows using time series econometric techniques. Using data for Australia and four important travel and trading partners, the USA, the UK, NZ and Japan, the paper tests three specific hypotheses: that business travel leads to international trade; that international trade leads to international travel; and that international travel, other than business travel, leads to international trade. Using cointegration and Granger-causality approaches the paper finds support for prior beliefs that there is a relationship between international travel and international trade, and suggests that this may be a fruitful area for further research.     

Market deregulation,trade liberalization and productive efficiency in Bangladesh agriculture: an empirical analysis

The impact of trade liberalization and of market deregulation in general, on the performance of agriculture remains contentious and empirical issue in the literature. Following the random coefficient frontier modelling framework, this paper attempts to contribute to this debate by computing the farm-specific productive efficiency indices in Bangladesh agriculture before and after reform. It also examines the impact of some farm-specific and policy variables on productive efficiency. The empirical results show that there are wide variations in productive efficiency across farms and regions and the average efficiency of all regions increased modestly by 8 percentage points from the pre-reform to post-reform period. The efficiency differentials are largely explained by farm size, infrastructure, households' off-farm income and the reduction of government anti-agricultural bias in relation to trade and domestic policies. The implication of these results suggests the need for further policy reform to augment productive efficiency.     

Market efficiency and continuous information arrival: evidence from prediction markets

Two regularities in financial economics are that prices underreact to news events and that they display short term momentum. This article tests for the presence of these regularities in prediction markets offered by the betting exchange Betfair on the 2008 Ryder Cup Golf Competition. Betfair offered in play prediction markets on the individual match play pairings and on the Cup result, with trading being virtually continuous in all markets. Modelled probabilities of the Cup result were updated continuously using trades in the individual match play pairings. These probabilities were then compared with the probabilities of the Cup result implied by odds in that market. The odds in the market for the Cup result underreact to both good and bad news that is provided by changes in the odds in the markets for the individual pairings. Further, these modelled probabilities Granger cause changes in the probabilities of the Cup result implied by odds in the market on that outcome. In addition, economically and statistically significant evidence of momentum is found in the odds in the market on the Cup result.     

Peer influence in network markets: a theoretical and empirical analysis

Network externalities spur the growth of networks and the adoption of network goods in two ways. First, they make it more attractive to join a network the larger its installed base. Second, they create incentives for network members to actively recruit new members. Despite indications that the latter “peer effect” can be more important for network growth than the installed-base effect, it has so far been largely ignored in the literature. We address this gap using game-theoretical models. When all early adopters can band together to exert peer influence—an assumption that fits, e.g., the case of firms supporting a technical standard—we find that the peer effect induces additional growth of the network by a factor. When, in contrast, individuals exert peer influence in small groups of size n, the increase in network size is by an additive constant—which, for small networks, can amount to a large relative increase. The difference between small, local, personal networks and large, global, anonymous networks arises endogenously from our analysis. Fundamentally, the first type of networks is “tie-reinforcing,” the other, “tie-creating”. We use survey data from users of the Internet services, Skype and eBay, to illustrate the main logic of our theoretical results. As predicted by the model, we find that the peer effect matters strongly for the network of Skype users—which effectively consists of numerous small sub-networks—but not for that of eBay users. Since many network goods give rise to small, local networks, our findings bear relevance to the economics of network goods and related social networks in general.     

Temporary employment and segmentation in the Spanish labour market: An empirical analysis through the study of wage differentials

We aim to add empirical evidence to the already studied field of wage differentials between temporary and permanent workers in Spain. Our goal is to find out which determinants of wage differentials are relevant when explaining such differences. Furthermore, the endogeneity of such feature (the type of contract) is controlled for. The same exercise is done with two data sets: the ECHP and the Structure of Earnings Survey. Results show that wage differentials between temporary and permanent workers are explained by the differences in the distribution of personal and job characteristics in both groups, but not by differences in the rewards for those characteristics. These results remain mostly unchanged during the second part of the 1990s, using information from five waves of the ECHP, and are robust to different changes in the econometric specification.JEL Classification: J31, J41The authors would like to thank the participants in the 3rd Summer School of Labour Economics (organised by IZA in Amersee, Munich), in a seminar in the University of Alcalá and in another seminar in the European University Institute in Florence and especially Alison Booth, Luis Toharia, Juan F. Jimeno, Juan José Dolado and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Florentino Felgueroso kindly helped us with the handling of data. The usual disclaimer applies. The ECHP is being used on behalf of the contract reference ECHP/15/00 between the University of Alcalá and EUROSTAT.     

Stability analysis and efficiency determinants: empirical evidence

Efficiency determinants analysis is a main contemporary component in the productive efficiency literature. Two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) procedure supposed a turning point in the methodology as the significance of a certain exogenous factor can provide policymakers with accurate information for future strategic decisions, but a deeper scrutiny into the importance of each factor remains unsettled. This article provides a novelty theoretical extension and empirical application for the two-stage DEA bootstrap procedure. We define the stability coefficient (SC) whose magnitude reveals the effect of each exogenous factor in the efficiency estimates. We present empirical evidence to examine the hypothesis that the efficiency of the 17 Spanish tourism regions for the average period data 2005–2013 is determined by a group of contextual variables, illustrating how the SCs strengthen knowledge concerning the significance of each potential attractor. The results help us to classify the significant attractors into strong and weak, accordingly enhancing the public or private decision process, and henceforth avoiding the wastefulness of decision-making units spending.     

Demand for ISO 14001 adoption in the global supply chain: An empirical analysis focusing on environmentally conscious markets

This paper analyzes the environmental preferences and pressures of customers in environmentally conscious markets influencing the number of adoptions of ISO 14001—the international standard certified by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) concerning an Environmental Management System (EMS)—in a country. Customers in different countries have different priorities and ideas with regard to the environment and its management, and therefore it is possible that environmental preferences and pressures of customers in environmentally conscious markets are greater, although many earlier studies suggest that foreign customers generally form a significant stakeholder group encouraging the adoption of ISO 14001. A random-effects Tobit estimation using a sample of 155 countries over eight years supports the view that the environmental preferences and pressures of customers in environmentally conscious markets (including Finland, Japan, Germany and Denmark) are more likely to encourage domestic along with foreign suppliers to adopt ISO 14001. As it is easier for firms in environmentally conscious markets to adopt ISO 14001 because of their better economic performance, they have already adopted certification and consequently require their domestic and foreign suppliers to do likewise in the global supply chain. For this reason, suppliers wishing to access environmentally conscious markets can obtain an advantage with ISO 14001 certification.     

Informational efficiency: ranking markets

Summary. The paper studies informational properties of three types of imperfectly competitive markets: a one-signal speculative market (OSS market) in which agents have only private information about the fundamental value (v) of the risky asset traded, a two-signal speculative market (TSS market) in which agents have private information about both v and the asset supply, and a market in which agents are endowed with both information about v and shares of the risky asset traded. In this last market (JA market), agents have joint activities: they trade for both speculative and hedging purposes. It is shown that (i) the JA market and the OSS market are the most and the least efficient, respectively, and (ii) the levels of informational efficiency in the three markets are inversely correlated with the intensities with which traders use their private information about the fundamental value of the asset. Received May 28, 1999; revised version: May 28, 1999     

The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets: An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing

Most recent empirical studies on creditworthiness and country risk have dealt with the international bank loan market, and have ignored the bond market in their effort to analyze the process of determination of default risk premia. In this paper data on both bank loans to the LDCs and on bonds issued by LDCs are used to analyze empirically several aspects related to developing countries' foreign borrowing and country risk. The paper analyzes three basic problems. First, some of the more important implications of modern models of LDCs foreign borrowing are tested. In particular the supposed positive effect of the level of indebtedness on the risk premium is investigated. Second, the pricing of bonds and bank loans are explicitly compared, in order to test whether, as sometimes has been argued, these two markets are significantly different. And third, data on yields on LDC bonds in the secondary market are analyzed to investigate the extent to which the market anticipated the debt crisis, and how it reacted to it.The main results obtained can be summarized as follows: First, both the bank loans and bonds data confirm some of the more important implications of foreign borrowing models. Specifically, the positive effect of higher debt ratios on the risk premium is confirmed. Second, it is found that the pricing of bonds and bank loans has somewhat differed. And third, it is found that the market anticipated by only a few weeks — and only partially — the world debt crisis of 1982. Finally, some policy implications that emerge from these findings are discussed.     

Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach

This paper proposes an alternative way of testing FOREX efficiency for developing countries. The FOREX market will be efficient if fully reflects all available information. If this holds, the actual exchange rate will not deviate significantly from its equilibrium rate. Moreover, the spot rate should deviate from its equilibrium rate by only transitory components (i.e. it should follow a white noise process). This test is applied to three Central and Eastern European Countries — members of the EU. Considering an LSTAR model we find no evidence of nonlinear adjustment in the misalignment series. So, linear unit root tests imply that the Poland/Euro FOREX market is efficient, the Czech/Euro FOREX market is not, while the Slovak/Euro FOREX market is quasi-efficient.     

The relationship between research funding and academic consulting: An empirical investigation in the Spanish context

This paper investigates the relationship between sources of funding for research activity and the engagement of scientists in a specific type of knowledge transfer, that is, academic consulting. We rely on a sample of 2603 individual scientists from five Spanish universities, who have been awarded public funding or have been principal investigators in activities contracted by external agents, over the period 1999–2004. We find that externally contracted research is positively related to the amount of monetary income from consulting contracts, but that international competitive funding has a negative effect. Our results show that this negative effect is positively moderated by the size of contract funding: the effect of international competitive funding becomes positive for moderate and high levels of contract funding. By investigating the relationship between academic consulting and different types of research funding, our paper sheds light on the conditions that favor academic consulting.     

An empirical investigation of the effect of borrowing constraints on Spanish consumption

Abstract. This work analyses the relevance of borrowing constraints on the intertemporal behaviour of Spanish non-durable consumption. We estimate Euler equations with cohort data extracted from the “Encuesta Continua de Presupuestos Familiares” (ECPF) for the period 1985–1993. The results are robust to the use of different estimators to eliminate fixed individual effects, to different specifications of the model, to the effect of uncertainty and to the presence of habits in consumption. Our results allow us to conclude that non-durable consumption of a considerable fraction of the Spanish population is affected by borrowing constraints. At the same time, and in accordance with similar results for other countries, we confirm that borrowing constraints are especially important for the young. The author acknowledges the grant received from the Conselleria de Cultura, Educación y Ciencia de la Generalitat Valènciana, as part of its grant's programme for stays in foreign universities and the financial support by DGICYT grants SEC99-0820 and SEC 2002-00667. The author also acknowledges the hospitality of the Department of Economics at University College London (UCL) and of the Departamento de Análisis Económico de la Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia. This work has been presented in the XXV Simposio de Análisis Económico, held in Bellaterra (Spain) in December 2000. Finally, the author acknowledges comments by J. E. Boscá and two anonymous referees that have contributed to improving the final version of the paper.     

Household financial vulnerability: An empirical analysis

Using survey data, we investigate household financial distress. Specifically, we propose an indicator of financial vulnerability to jointly analyse different features of household financial distress, analysing its socio-demographic and economic determinants. A total number of 3102 Italian households make up the sample.The empirical analysis highlights that for the median level of the financial vulnerability index households already exhibit some important symptoms of financial vulnerability, such as problems in getting to the end of the month or an inability to face unexpected expenses. As regards the determinants of the financial vulnerability index, three findings need to be pointed out. First, the level of debt servicing is positively related to financial vulnerability and the effect is stronger for households holding unsecured debt, i.e. consumer credit. Second, financial vulnerability also increases for impulsive individuals, who may adopt impatient, short-sighted behaviour patterns which make it difficult for them to be fully aware of the consequences of their financial and spending decisions. Third, a higher level of education helps to reduce financial fragility.     

The effects of the subprime crisis on the Latin American financial markets: An empirical assessment

The aim of this article is to answer the following question: can the considerable rise in the volatility of the LAC stock markets in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 crisis be explained by the worsening financial environment in the US markets? To this end, we rely on a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model, in which “crisis” and “non-crisis” periods are identified endogenously. Using daily data from January 2004 to April 2009, our findings do not validate the “financial decoupling” hypothesis since we show that the financial stress in the US markets is transmitted to the LAC's stock market volatility, especially in Mexico.     

Networks in markets and the propensity of companies to collaborate: An empirical test of three mechanisms

We propose and test hypotheses about three endogenous mechanisms that may be driving the observed network structure of producers’ markets. We use data that we have collected on collaborative network ties among producers. Estimates of Exponential Random Graphs Models (ERGM) support our hypotheses.     

Dynamic price dependence of Canadian and international art markets: an empirical analysis

Although the market for Canadian paintings is now of substantial magnitude, with several works having recently been sold for well over a million dollars, it remains true that with very few exceptions, the works of Canadian painters are bought and sold only in Canada and seem to be held only by Canadian collectors. This market can thus be viewed as largely local, and it is therefore not clear whether there should be any linkage between price movements for Canadian art and those for the mainstream international market in old master, impressionist, and modern art. This article investigates the presence and nature of such time series dependence econometrically, both in terms of long-term trends as reflected in the co-integrating relationship between Canadian and the international market, and in terms of short-run co-movements as represented in correlations. The possibility that the local market ??follows?? the international one is also considered through an analysis of Granger causality. For Canadian art prices, we use a new hedonic index that has been computed using an updated version of the dataset of Hodgson and Vorkink (Can J Econ 37:629?C655, 2004), while for the international prices, we use an index provided by Mei and Moses (Am Econ Rev 92:1656?C1668, 2002).