资产价格泡沫的货币政策应对问题

近年来，物价稳定而资产价格频繁波动是许多国家遇到的一个新问题。货币政策是否应该对泡沫进行干预这一问题成为理论界的研究热点。本文就此问题展开论述，并提出应对资产价格泡沫的策略以供参考。     

论我国货币政策对资产价格泡沫的干预

中央银行的货币政策是否应该干预资产价格泡沫的问题在中国政府部门及众多学者已基本达成共识,即关注而不盯住。利用Taylor规则的拓展方式考察了中国货币政策对股市与房市的干预程度,说明央行在对待股市与房市的政策上存在不对称性,并进一步对"关注而不盯住"的货币政策应如何确定利率水平,以及如何选择积极的货币政策或适应性货币政策的给出参考模型     

资产价格波动、金融稳定与货币政策选择

从内生角度来看,资产价格波动可能通过金融创新、银行信贷与流动性、微观主体行为等途径,引起金融不稳定和宏观经济波动。货币政策应适当关注资产价格及其波动,并选择合适的刺破资产价格泡沫的工具。目前,我国正处于经济持续发展、人民币不断升值和城市化不断推进的特殊时期,这意味着我国资产价格波动愈发频繁,应建立资产价格泡沫预警指标体系,为货币政策的制定和实施提供参考。尤其是为了防止房地产价格泡沫产生带来的危害,应考虑将房地产价格纳入CPI体系,为货币政策的制定和实施提供参考。     

货币政策应对资产价格波动的文献研究

资产价格与货币政策之间的关系日益引起学术界的重视。资产价格波动通过财富效应、托宾Q值效应、资产负债表效应等渠道对经济活动产生影响。一些学者坚持认为货币政策无需对资产价格波动做出反应,另一些学者主张货币政策应该考虑资产价格。基于对国内外相关文献的回顾,本文梳理了资产价格波动影响货币政策途径的相关理论,介绍了在"货币政策应否考虑资产价格"这一问题上的不同理论及主张,并在此基础上予以简要评价。     

我国调控房地产价格的货币政策分析

美国由于对资产价格做出的货币政策滞后给经济带来了很大负面影响,我国也应该认识到积极的财政政策和货币政策会带来资产价格泡沫隐患,尤其是房地产泡沫问题应该受到关注。现阶段货币政策调控房地产市场面临着放松调控将导致房地产泡沫卷土重来,过度调控会阻碍经济的持续发展,微观主体预期对货币政策有效性构成挑战,基层中央银行落实政策难到住等问题。完善我国货币政策调控体系就要增强货币政策的连续性、一致性和透明度,防止心理预期的变化引起房地产价格的震荡,还要加强一般性货币政策与选择性货币政策之间的配合以及货币政策与其他调控政策的配合。     

我国货币政策是否响应股市泡沫的实证分析

本文针对我国的实际情况,对Taylor规则进行了扩展,用以探讨货币政策是否对股市泡沫进行响应.结果表明,我国的货币政策未将股市泡沫纳入视野,中央银行对1996-2005年期间股市泡沫的急剧膨胀及随后的泡沫破裂,都采取了容忍和观望的态度.     

资产价格泡沫主要在楼市

就当前的经济形势来看,尽管实体经济还没有完全回暖,但资产价格短期内快速膨胀。对于当前资产价格快速上涨,我们应作以区分。     

新的资产泡沫正在形成

现行经济刺激政策长期持续下去后果到底如何,目前尚不清楚,但眼前的一切开始越来越像一个新的泡沫。在经济前景尚未完全清晰的背景下,资产价格的直线快速上升。使得人们不免担心市场在货币政策的推动下再次酝酿资产泡沫的风险,     

货币政策应对资产价格波动的对策思考

资本市场的发展对货币政策的传导机制产生了重大的影响,这种影响对货币政策的最终目标提出了新的挑战,并成为货币政策操作中的一个难题。因此,货币政策在实施过程中要考虑资本市场的反应并有必要监控资产价格的变动情况。同时,货币政策理论需要对这些新的领域加强研究。     

当前适度宽松货币政策之冷思考

百年不遇的国际金融危机沉重打击了世界经济,也给中国经济发展带来了严重影响,危机面前,中国政府积极应对。但是,全球形势瞬息万变,中国经济回稳的基础尚不巩固,宏观经济未来走势仍有较大不确定性。首先分析当前适度宽松货币政策的必要性,然后从银行风险、通货膨胀压力、资产泡沫滋生风险来探讨当前货币政策的潜在风险,最后提出了防范以上潜在风险的措施。     

An explosion time characterization of asset price bubbles

In a standard continuous time asset pricing model, this paper provides an explosion time characterization of asset price bubbles that extends the existing characterization theorems in the literature from diffusion processes to general semimartingales (which can include jumps). This characterization has a nice economic interpretation, not emphasized in the existing literature.     

The impact of monetary policy on oil price persistence: An application of the smooth regime-switching model

This paper employs the smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the persistence of oil price changes, and chooses monetary policy variables as transition variables of the model to assess their roles in the persistence effects. The empirical results show that oil price changes displayed asymmetric adjustments within different regimes and were more sensitive to the movement of interest rates than inflation rate. In addition, high inflation rate would give rise to low oil price persistence, and expansionary monetary policy would bring about higher oil price persistence. Moreover, when the short- and long-term interest rates were over their threshold values, the persistence effects of oil price changes were opposite. In the present relatively low US interest rates, adopting either an inflation-targeting policy or/and a debt-financing policy to stimulate economic growth, the timing is appropriate and the effect will be positive and expected because of low persistence of oil price changes.     

The impact of monetary and tax policy on income inequality in Japan

This paper assesses the effects of the most recent monetary policy behaviour of the Bank of Japan (in particular, zero interest rate policy and negative interest rate policy) and Japanese tax policy on income inequality in this country during the period of 2002Q1 to 2017Q3. The vector error correction model (VECM) that develops in this research shows that increase in money stock (m1) through Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) policies of the BOJ significantly increases the income inequality. On the contrary, Japanese tax policy was effective in reducing the income inequality. Variance decomposition results show that increasing of income inequality by monetary policy is larger when comparing to decreasing effects of tax policy on income inequality. Cointegration and VECM results show that monetary policy has both short-run and long-run impacts but for tax policy paper could not find any significant short-run impact on income inequality. In addition, paper found that technological progress only in long-run can reduce the income inequality by increasing the marginal productivity of labour with positive impacts on employment and wages.     

Fiscal policy,monetary policy and external imbalances: Cross-country evidence from Africa's three largest economies

This paper determines which of the three policy approaches: fiscal, monetary and exchange rate can better address external imbalances in the three largest African economies, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. To this end, use is made of the panel vector autoregressive model to assess the dynamic effects of shocks emanating from the three policy approaches. The findings of the paper indicate that unlike in many emerging and developed economies the current accounts of these three economies react to fiscal, monetary and exchange rate shocks. More particular, the results of the empirical analysis show that the appreciations of the currencies in the three economies lead to current account surpluses. This is mainly attributed to the fact that most African economies have a high propensity to import with limited productive capacity for exports.     

Consumer credit and monetary policy in Malaysia

What is the impact of monetary policy on the Malaysian consumer? The study addresses this issue by empirically investigating the consequences of interest rate shocks on consumer credit in Malaysia. The study relies on the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition analysis based on the structural Vector Auto‐regression methodology. Apart from analysing the responses of aggregate consumer loans (ACL) to interest rate changes, further disaggregation is made in efforts to arrive at more detailed findings. In particular, the ACL data are categorized into loans for purchase of residential property, loans for personal uses, loans for credit cards, loans for purchase of consumer durables, loans for purchase of passenger cars and loans for purchase of securities. Through this disaggregation, the study shows the relative sensitivity of the various types of consumer loans to interest rate shocks.     

国债规模:在财政与金融之间寻求平衡

本文从财政政策和货币政策协调配合角度,探讨了国债在金融体系中的特殊地位和作用,着重分析了国债市场作为核心金融市场在提供市场流动性方面的不可替代的作用.本文的政策含义就是,为了给我国的金融市场运行创造一个良好的基础,我们的国债政策应当超越单纯财政的财政眼光.     

Optimal monetary policy in a currency area

This paper investigates how monetary policy should be conducted in a two-region general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness. This framework delivers a simple welfare criterion based on the utility of the consumers that can be used to evaluate monetary policy in a currency area. If the two regions share the same degree of nominal rigidity, the terms of trade are completely insulated from monetary policy and the optimal outcome is obtained by targeting a weighted average of the regional inflation rates. These weights coincide with the economic sizes of the region. If the degrees of rigidity are different, the optimal plan implies a high degree of inertia in the inflation rate. But an inflation targeting policy in which higher weight is given to the inflation in the region with higher degree of nominal rigidity is nearly optimal.     

货币政策对我国上市银行风险承担的影响研究

2008年金融危机后货币政策对银行风险承担的影响属于经济学界的新兴研究热点。基于2007—2012年14家上市银行的数据,运用GMM动态面板估计方法实证检验了货币政策对我国上市银行风险承担的影响并分析了非国有银行的风险承担行为。实证结果表明,宽松的货币政策会激励银行的风险承担,非国有银行对货币政策变动的反应更为敏感。此外激励效果的产生依赖于银行的资产负债表特征和宏观经济形势。     

Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy

Industrial countries moving from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes experience dramatic rises in the variability of the real exchange rate. This evidence, forcefully documented by Mussa [Nominal exchange regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence and implications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1986) 117], is a puzzle because it is hard to reconcile with the assumption of flexible prices. This paper lays out a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that combines nominal price rigidity with a systematic behavior of monetary policy able to approximate a continuum of exchange rate regimes. A version of the model with complete exchange rate pass-through is broadly consistent with Mussa’s findings. Most importantly, this holds independently of the underlying source of fluctuations in the economy, stressing the role of the nominal exchange rate regime per se in affecting the variability of the real exchange rate. However, only a model featuring incomplete exchange rate pass-through can account for a broader range of exchange rate statistics. Finally there exist ranges of values for either the degree of openness or the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods for which the baseline model is also consistent with the empirical insensitivity of output volatility to the type of exchange rate regime, as documented by Baxter and Stockman [Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (1989) 377].