An econometric analysis of the European Commission's merger decisions

Using a sample of 96 mergers notified to the European Commission and logit regression techniques, we analyse the Commission's decision process. We find that the probability of a phase-2 investigation and of a prohibition of the merger increases with the parties' market shares. The probabilities increase also when the Commission finds high entry barriers or that the post-merger market structure is conducive to collusion. We do not find significant effects of “political” variables, such as the nationality of the merging firms.     

Do Court Decisions Drive the Federal Trade Commission’s Enforcement Policy on Merger Settlements?

Mergers are generally conglomerate in nature with only minor (if any) horizontal overlaps. Under U.S. law, an enforcement agency may challenge any anticompetitive aspect of the merger and the consequent delay associated with litigation would impose costs on the firm. These costs may give the enforcement agency “leverage” to extract a settlement even when the firm would prevail in court. This paper explores whether the FTC’s decisions to challenge transactions approximate the case law. We find that the representative enforcement regimes of the FTC and the courts are remarkably similar, although the FTC credits efficiencies, while courts consider buyer sophistication as a mitigating factor.     

Merger simulation using average market share: An application to the Optimus-TMN mobile merger case

This paper develops a new merger simulation methodology based on the analysis of the performance change of a hypothetical firm with average market share. It applies the methodology to the Optimus-TMN mobile telecom merger case in Portugal, within the context of the December 2006 decision by the Portuguese Competition Authority to authorize the merger between their respective parent companies, Sonaecom and Portugal Telecom. The results suggest that the Optimus-TMN merger would have resulted in 3.8% higher prices and 14.9% lower marginal costs, and would have been welfare-enhancing. These findings attest to the importance of the “efficiency defense” hypothesis of mergers. They suggest that competition authorities are warranted in allowing further consolidation in the telecom sector, but that consolidation should be accompanied by strict retail price-cap regulation.     

Price-Performance Competition and the Merger Guidelines

While analysis of competition among differentiatedproducts has evolved under the revisions to theMerger Guidelines since 1982, it remains adhoc. This paper argues that price and performancecompetition among differentiated products is the rulerather than the exception and proposes methods toexplicitly analyze both forms of competition. Themethods address price and performance competition indemand and supply, explicitly incorporatingcompetitive responses as called for by the 1992 Guidelines. Empirical implementation is discussed for a specificmarket.     

Empirical Analysis of Merger Enforcement Under the 1992 Merger Guidelines

This paper presents an analysis of merger enforcement at the Federal Trade Commission under the 1992 Merger Guidelines. The econometric analysis suggests that enforcement decisions are best predicted with the Herfindahl index when the relevant theory is collusion and the number of significant rivals when the relevant theory is unilateral effects. Evidence such as “hot” documents, customer complaints, and historical events suggestive of past competitive problems also increase the chance of a challenge. Mirror image considerations suggestive of continued post-merger competition (“cold” documents, customer support, and procompetitive events) reduce the probability of challenge in one specification. This article is based on non-public data obtained from Federal Trade Commission internal files. The Commission’s General Counsel has authorized publication of such data in aggregated form under Commission Rule 4.11(g), 16 C.F.R. 4.11(g). I would like to thank David Scheffman, Paul Pautler, Elizabeth Callison, and Jeffrey Fischer for helpful comments on the project and Anthony Alcorn, Brian Cross, Fulvio Cajina, Paul Golaszewski, Wendy Hanson, Janet Ireland, Karl Kindler, Michael Madigan, Madeleine McChesney, Joseph Remy, and especially Matthew Tschetter for research assistance in assembling the data. Of course, the analyses and conclusions set forth in this paper remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Trade Commission, any individual Commissioner, or any Commission Bureau.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2007–2008

This paper covers the activities of the Economic Analysis Group (EAG) of the Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice, during 2007–2008. It describes the economic analysis undertaken by EAG in several important investigations, and in other activities as an advocate for competition. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Antitrust Division.     

Non-competition Goals and Their Impact on South African Merger Control: An Empirical Analysis

Review of Industrial Organization - Merger control regimes in various jurisdictions—especially in Africa—feature non-competition objectives in addition to conventional goals, such as...     

Ex ante or ex post competition policy? A progress report

When intervening in markets, say to block a merger, competition authorities are constrained by the limited information they have about the social desirability of the available alternatives. Compared to ex ante control, ex post control is based on the more accurate information that becomes available in the intervening period, but entails temporary losses to social welfare and reversal costs incurred to unscramble the eggs. Through a toy model, we identify situations in which the competition authority finds it optimal to commit to forego the option of ex post review in order to avoid chilling ex ante socially beneficial mergers. On the other hand, the case for ex post review is strengthened if post-merger market conducts can signal the merged firm's private information about the consequences of the merger.     

On the Consistency of Merger Policy

This paper presents a way to get around the information problem facing outside analysts who want to scrutinize competition authorities' decisions. A formal model of how decisions are taken is applied to infer information that is available to the authorities but not to the outside analyst. If the information thus inferred from several decisions is incompatible, it is claimed that the policy executed by the competition authorities is inconsistent. A case study is presented of two recent decisions by the Norwegian Competition Authority on proposed mergers in the Norwegian insurance industry, indicating they most likely were mutually inconsistent.     

Applying “Merger Guidelines” market definition to (de)regulatory policy: Pros and cons

Since initially presented in the 1982 Department of Justice Horizontal Merger Guidelines, market definition has been adopted nearly worldwide as a framework to see if a merger would substantially lessen competition. This framework is useful for addressing the similarly counterfactual question of whether forbearance from regulation would lead to an increase in prices. In this context, however, the usefulness of a merger-based market definition is limited. Because the alternative to forbearance is regulation, and since some regulated rates may be below competitive levels, finding that deregulation would lead to market power as defined for mergers need not justify continued regulation. Forbearance in telecommunications highlights market definition questions regarding gross vs. marginal substitutes, dynamic efficiencies, and service bundling. It also reveals ambiguities in the meaning of “geographic market.” Market definition also has limited applicability if regulation exists not to prevent high prices but the abuse of dominance through predatory pricing.     

Innovation and Merger Decisions in the Pharmaceutical Industry

There is increasing public policy concern about the potentialeffects of mergers on innovation. This paper provides acomparative analysis of approaches to innovational competitiontaken by the E.U. and U.S. merger authorities in a sample of threerecent, major, pharmaceutical mergers. The European Commission'sapproach appears lighter handed and places more explicit emphasison effects in downstream markets. The uncertainties in the analysisof dynamic effects of mergers on innovation, even in pharmaceuticals,suggest the need for a cautious approach and for careful framingof any merger remedies where R & D projects and components, ratherthan approved drugs, are involved.     

An equilibrium approach to international merger policy

I treat international merger policy as a repeated veto game. I show that there exists a unique efficient equilibrium within a particular class of trigger strategy equilibria. I then consider a series of comparative statics and extensions: (a) if for some exogenous reason one of the countries becomes more lenient towards mergers, than the other country becomes more lenient as well; (b) merger remedies increase the probability that a merger is approved and increase total welfare; (c) the effects of a merger wave are magnified by the equilibrium approval policy.     

基于企业生命周期理论的现金股利分配实证研究

本文在回顾西方股利政策理论的基础上,基于生命周期理论对股利政策的影响因素进行实证分析。我们以留存收益资产比作为企业生命周期的代理变量,选取沪市528家A股上市公司作为样本,采用2000—2008年间的数据,运用Logit模型、Tobit模型分别考察留存收益资产比和一些控制变量对上市公司是否支付现金股利、股利支付率的影响。研究发现,我国上市公司是否支付现金股利呈现生命周期特征,而现金股利支付率则不具有生命周期特征;在选取的控制变量中,增长率变量与股利发放显著负相关,从增长率这一角度看,暗合生命周期特征,资产收益率和公司规模变量与股利发放显著正相关。根据研究结论,本文建议证监会分行业制定公司的现金股利分配政策。     

Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry

We simulate the price effects of several hypothetical mergers in the shelf-stable bottled juice industry. In doing so, we highlight the effects of consumer stockpiling on demand elasticity estimates and subsequent merger simulations. This task is complicated by a large number of choice alternatives within the bottled juice category. To address this challenge we employ a demand model based on the Distance Metric (DM) approach of Pinkse et al. (Econometrica 70:1111–1153, 2002). We find that merger simulations that do not account for consumer stockpiling behavior underestimate the permanent price changes that are likely to occur due to a merger.      

The European Commission's approach to mergers involving software-based platforms: Towards a better understanding of platform power

The European Commission’s digital single market policies are increasingly concerned with the impact of so-called ‘platforms’ on competition in the internal market. Whereas the European Commission acknowledges the contributions of platform companies to innovation, it also sees actual and potential damages occurring from their powerful position. As such, the European Commission aims to strengthen the enforcement of its competition law rules in this area. The main research question is how the European Commission has been evaluating the competitive effects of platforms under merger control and whether its approach is adequate to address the manifold concerns related to platforms and competition. Based on a case study analysis, we conclude that the European Commission (1) recognises the platform circumstance, their essential intermediary role in the digital industry and the importance of maintaining fair competition; (2) its analysis has been slowly evolving becoming more granular; (3) platforms’ behaviour and not their size per se is most often the central concern; (4) the proposed Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act packages tackle platform concerns identified in the European Commission’s ex-ante analysis, signalling that its analysis seems to have inspired their creation.     

对网络舆情的实证分析——以三组天涯论坛跟帖评论为例

随着网络的日益普及,民众的意见表达多了一种重要的渠道,关注网络舆情成为了解民意的一个重要途径。网络舆情到底有什么特点?其作用又是什么?本文运用内容分析法,对天涯论坛的三组跟帖评论进行实证分析,从议题选择、意见分类、表达方式三方面对网络舆情进行考察。     

Employers' Online Search: An Empirical Analysis

Drawing on job postings at an online job board, we find that employers who have to fill their vacancies immediately specify fewer job requirements, provide more details about the job application process, and are quicker to withdraw their vacancies from the job board than employers with job openings that do not have to be filled immediately. These findings offer new insights into the role of vacancy costs in determining how employers search for workers online.     

Policy analysis and advocacy for livestock-based development: The gap between household-level analysis and higher-level models

The dichotomy in approaches to policy analysis for developing countries’ livestock sectors is presented. Substantial experience and information generated from a large number of household-level studies is not being utilised by macro- and aggregate models which fail to recognise heterogeneity, dynamics and fundamental drivers of change in livestock systems. Household-level studies are not standardised and rarely identify and characterise key drivers and mechanisms for exploiting heterogeneity in policy analysis. The paper provides an overview of a set of six papers contained in a special edition which define and address this gap in analytical approaches and identify aspects of the way forward. Evidence is presented of inconsistencies and practicalities which emphasise the gap, but all papers present evidence of integrative progress and list opportunities for accelerating it. Constraints on the subject matter are outlined and a challenge to livestock policy analysts is made.     

中国上市公司经理层治理评价与实证研究

本文在对国内外经理层治理评价研究进行述评的基础上,构建了中国公司经理层治理评价系统,并对中国上市公司经理层的治理状况进行了指数化评价。评价结果显示,经理层治理状况总体偏低,且行业间和各主、子因素指数间的得分有较大差异。通过对经理层治理评价指数与公司绩效关系的实证分析发现,经理层治理水平的提高,有利于改善企业的绩效。最后,我们提出了完善中国上市公司经理层治理的一些建议。