An econometric analysis of the European Commission's merger decisions

Using a sample of 96 mergers notified to the European Commission and logit regression techniques, we analyse the Commission's decision process. We find that the probability of a phase-2 investigation and of a prohibition of the merger increases with the parties' market shares. The probabilities increase also when the Commission finds high entry barriers or that the post-merger market structure is conducive to collusion. We do not find significant effects of “political” variables, such as the nationality of the merging firms.     

Do Court Decisions Drive the Federal Trade Commission’s Enforcement Policy on Merger Settlements?

Mergers are generally conglomerate in nature with only minor (if any) horizontal overlaps. Under U.S. law, an enforcement agency may challenge any anticompetitive aspect of the merger and the consequent delay associated with litigation would impose costs on the firm. These costs may give the enforcement agency “leverage” to extract a settlement even when the firm would prevail in court. This paper explores whether the FTC’s decisions to challenge transactions approximate the case law. We find that the representative enforcement regimes of the FTC and the courts are remarkably similar, although the FTC credits efficiencies, while courts consider buyer sophistication as a mitigating factor.     

Merger simulation using average market share: An application to the Optimus-TMN mobile merger case

This paper develops a new merger simulation methodology based on the analysis of the performance change of a hypothetical firm with average market share. It applies the methodology to the Optimus-TMN mobile telecom merger case in Portugal, within the context of the December 2006 decision by the Portuguese Competition Authority to authorize the merger between their respective parent companies, Sonaecom and Portugal Telecom. The results suggest that the Optimus-TMN merger would have resulted in 3.8% higher prices and 14.9% lower marginal costs, and would have been welfare-enhancing. These findings attest to the importance of the “efficiency defense” hypothesis of mergers. They suggest that competition authorities are warranted in allowing further consolidation in the telecom sector, but that consolidation should be accompanied by strict retail price-cap regulation.     

Price-Performance Competition and the Merger Guidelines

While analysis of competition among differentiatedproducts has evolved under the revisions to theMerger Guidelines since 1982, it remains adhoc. This paper argues that price and performancecompetition among differentiated products is the rulerather than the exception and proposes methods toexplicitly analyze both forms of competition. Themethods address price and performance competition indemand and supply, explicitly incorporatingcompetitive responses as called for by the 1992 Guidelines. Empirical implementation is discussed for a specificmarket.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2007–2008

This paper covers the activities of the Economic Analysis Group (EAG) of the Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice, during 2007–2008. It describes the economic analysis undertaken by EAG in several important investigations, and in other activities as an advocate for competition. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Antitrust Division.     

Non-competition Goals and Their Impact on South African Merger Control: An Empirical Analysis

Review of Industrial Organization - Merger control regimes in various jurisdictions—especially in Africa—feature non-competition objectives in addition to conventional goals, such as...     

Ex ante or ex post competition policy? A progress report

When intervening in markets, say to block a merger, competition authorities are constrained by the limited information they have about the social desirability of the available alternatives. Compared to ex ante control, ex post control is based on the more accurate information that becomes available in the intervening period, but entails temporary losses to social welfare and reversal costs incurred to unscramble the eggs. Through a toy model, we identify situations in which the competition authority finds it optimal to commit to forego the option of ex post review in order to avoid chilling ex ante socially beneficial mergers. On the other hand, the case for ex post review is strengthened if post-merger market conducts can signal the merged firm's private information about the consequences of the merger.     

Applying “Merger Guidelines” market definition to (de)regulatory policy: Pros and cons

Since initially presented in the 1982 Department of Justice Horizontal Merger Guidelines, market definition has been adopted nearly worldwide as a framework to see if a merger would substantially lessen competition. This framework is useful for addressing the similarly counterfactual question of whether forbearance from regulation would lead to an increase in prices. In this context, however, the usefulness of a merger-based market definition is limited. Because the alternative to forbearance is regulation, and since some regulated rates may be below competitive levels, finding that deregulation would lead to market power as defined for mergers need not justify continued regulation. Forbearance in telecommunications highlights market definition questions regarding gross vs. marginal substitutes, dynamic efficiencies, and service bundling. It also reveals ambiguities in the meaning of “geographic market.” Market definition also has limited applicability if regulation exists not to prevent high prices but the abuse of dominance through predatory pricing.     

Innovation and Merger Decisions in the Pharmaceutical Industry

There is increasing public policy concern about the potentialeffects of mergers on innovation. This paper provides acomparative analysis of approaches to innovational competitiontaken by the E.U. and U.S. merger authorities in a sample of threerecent, major, pharmaceutical mergers. The European Commission'sapproach appears lighter handed and places more explicit emphasison effects in downstream markets. The uncertainties in the analysisof dynamic effects of mergers on innovation, even in pharmaceuticals,suggest the need for a cautious approach and for careful framingof any merger remedies where R & D projects and components, ratherthan approved drugs, are involved.     

基于企业生命周期理论的现金股利分配实证研究

本文在回顾西方股利政策理论的基础上,基于生命周期理论对股利政策的影响因素进行实证分析。我们以留存收益资产比作为企业生命周期的代理变量,选取沪市528家A股上市公司作为样本,采用2000—2008年间的数据,运用Logit模型、Tobit模型分别考察留存收益资产比和一些控制变量对上市公司是否支付现金股利、股利支付率的影响。研究发现,我国上市公司是否支付现金股利呈现生命周期特征,而现金股利支付率则不具有生命周期特征;在选取的控制变量中,增长率变量与股利发放显著负相关,从增长率这一角度看,暗合生命周期特征,资产收益率和公司规模变量与股利发放显著正相关。根据研究结论,本文建议证监会分行业制定公司的现金股利分配政策。     

Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry

We simulate the price effects of several hypothetical mergers in the shelf-stable bottled juice industry. In doing so, we highlight the effects of consumer stockpiling on demand elasticity estimates and subsequent merger simulations. This task is complicated by a large number of choice alternatives within the bottled juice category. To address this challenge we employ a demand model based on the Distance Metric (DM) approach of Pinkse et al. (Econometrica 70:1111–1153, 2002). We find that merger simulations that do not account for consumer stockpiling behavior underestimate the permanent price changes that are likely to occur due to a merger.      

中国上市公司经理层治理评价与实证研究

本文在对国内外经理层治理评价研究进行述评的基础上,构建了中国公司经理层治理评价系统,并对中国上市公司经理层的治理状况进行了指数化评价。评价结果显示,经理层治理状况总体偏低,且行业间和各主、子因素指数间的得分有较大差异。通过对经理层治理评价指数与公司绩效关系的实证分析发现,经理层治理水平的提高,有利于改善企业的绩效。最后,我们提出了完善中国上市公司经理层治理的一些建议。     

An Empirical Analysis of UK Credit Card Pricing

Previous studies show that the credit card market is imperfectly competitive. Using a reduced form hedonic model, the current paper demonstrates a relationship between credit card interest rates and product differentiation characteristics. The characteristics capture issuers’ attempts to: (1) screen/separate customers with different default risk characteristics and (2) better meet heterogeneous customer preferences. The results are consistent with risk-based pricing and monopolistic competition in the credit card market.     

煤炭行业需加强产业政策的研究

文章指出了进行煤炭产业政策研究的必要性 ,分析了当前煤炭产业政策存在的问题 ,提出了当前煤炭产业政策研究的方向、内容和意义     

人力资本价值转化模型实证分析

本文认为人力资本包含了个体资本、群体知识资本、个体社会资本三个方面，并且建立了人力资本各要素的因果关系及其向组织知识资本转化的模型。利用企业问卷调查得到的数据，本文运用结构化方程分析方法和Amos软件，对模型进行了参数估计和分析总结，以此揭示人力资本在组织中积累和转化为组织知识资本的机理，从而为企业的知识管理提供借鉴。     

Risk assessment in the international food safety policy arena. Can the multilateral institutions encourage unbiased outcomes?

Two institutions provide multilateral venues for countries to discuss food safety measures at the international level: the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) and the World Trade Organization. Both institutions encourage their Members to base food safety standards on scientific evidence.     

企业横向兼并理论及模型研究综述

首先分析了企业横向兼并战略产生的背景,然后分别从外生兼并行为、内生兼并行为和动态兼并行为角度系统地介绍同质产品市场企业兼并动机与效应、异质产品市场企业兼并动机与效应以及网络外部性产品市场企业兼并动机与效应等各种理论研究模型,并评述了各种理论研究模型的结果与存在的局限性。     

当前宏观经济形势及政策取向分析

本文以总供给和总需求关系为理论框架 ,分析了 2 0 0 3年以来我国经济运行的趋势与特点 ,认为投资过度扩张和工业增长过快导致GDP增长速度偏高 ,消费价格涨势逐渐明显 ,经济增长质量出现下降。因此 ,2 0 0 4年的宏观经济政策 ,应当由对付通货紧缩转向防止通货膨胀 ,通过控制投资和工业过度扩张 ,适度调控经济增长速度 ,促进经济结构的协调 ,并加快经济增长方式的转变。