Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia

The demographic transition—a change from high to low ratesof mortality and fertility—has been more dramatic in EastAsia during the twentieth century than in any other region orhistorical period. By introducing demographic variables intoan empirical model of economic growth, this article shows thatthis transition has contributed substantially to East Asia'sso-called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part becauseEast Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-agepopulation growing at a much faster rate than its dependentpopulation during 1965–90, thereby expanding the per capitaproductive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect wasnot inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countrieshad social, economic, and political institutions and policiesthat allowed them to realize the growth potential created bythe transition. The empirical analyses indicate that populationgrowth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth;this effect operates only when the dependent and working-agepopulations are growing at different rates. These results implythat future demographic change will tend to depress growth ratesin East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growthin Southeast and South Asia.     

经济全球化视角下的“夹层效应”——从结构性矛盾看欧洲主权债务危机

本文从经济全球化视角,对欧盟内部和亚洲发展中国家的劳动生产率、劳动工资和单位劳动成本进行了研究。研究表明,当前不对称国际经济体系中特有的夹层效应是欧洲债务危机爆发的深层原因,即希腊等夹层国面临着劳动力全球化下底层国家即亚洲新兴经济体的低成本竞争和上层发达国家劳动生产率的强烈冲击,导致单位劳动成本上升和产品竞争力丧失,这种结构性矛盾与不平衡最终引发了本次危机。根据研究结果,本文认为结构性改革是化解危机的根本途径。     

韩国应对亚洲金融危机的经验及启示

20世纪70-80年代,经济崛起中的东亚经济体遵循金融深化的发展思路,纷纷开始了金融自由化进程。然而,1997年亚洲金融危机的爆发使得东亚经济体遭遇重创,韩国经济也陷入战后以来最严峻的时期。为应对危机,韩国政府果断地对金融体系进行改革,逐渐走出了危机的阴霭。韩国与我国有着相近的文化、历史背景及经济增长道路,经济社会的可比因素较多,韩国面临的一些经济金融困境对我国是难得的“前车之鉴”。分析韩国1997年金融危机爆发的原因、影响及应对策略,无疑会给我国正在推进的金融体制改革提供有益的借鉴。     

东亚汇率波动联动性的原因分析——基于区域经济一体化角度的思考

近年来,东亚外向型经济体呈现出汇率波动联动性加强并导致实际的汇率制度变动一致的趋势。本文从东亚日益加深的区域经济一体化的角度出发,分析了各经济体的汇率变化受其重要贸易伙伴经济与政策因素影响,如日美汇率结构波动甚至包括邻国(地区)的汇率与货币政策。这说明经济结构相似、经济周期趋同的东亚各经济体需要一致的汇率制度。本文认为,在目前东亚区域汇率合作机制时机尚未成熟时,各经济体同时采取宽带浮动的一篮子盯住较为现实。而在当前金融动荡的形势下,各国汇率政策协调极为重要。     

“10＋3”框架下东亚区域货币合作可行性分析与战略选择——基于经济冲击对称性视角

东亚各国目前在货币领域的合作严重滞后于贸易合作,2008年全球金融危机的爆发使东亚货币合作面临着前所未有的挑战。根据传统的OCA标准,目前东亚各国内部经济条件差异较大,而且这种差异有逐步扩大的趋势,因此进行深层次货币合作的成本较高。基于经济冲击对称性的实证分析进一步表明,中日韩二三国货币冲击的对称性较高,但是在供给冲击和需求冲击方面存在非对称性,而且这种非对称性在短期更为明显。与日韩相比,中国与东盟之间经济冲击的对称程度相对较高,具备一定的合作优势。因此中国应以贸易合作为基础,加强同东亚主要经济体的经贸往来,共同引领东亚货币合作向更高层次迈进。     

丝绸之路经济带金融合作：进展、前景与策略

自丝绸之路经济带提出以来,加强区域金融合作已成为中国与中亚国家对话协作的重要议题。中国与中亚国家不仅具有地理毗邻、资源互补、贸易频繁与协商顺畅等优势,而且拥有强烈的金融合作愿望与需求。目前,中国与中亚国家之间的金融合作已取得了丰硕成果,但是也存在一些潜在挑战。对此,中国与中亚国家需要不断改善金融合作外部环境、完善金融基础设施建设、推进人民币结算与构建区域性金融市场,为丝绸之路经济带金融合作创造良好条件。     

Did China avoid the ‘Asian flu’? The contagion effect test with dynamic correlation coefficients

Many economists believe that China avoided the so-called Asian flu due to its strong balance of payments position and substantial foreign reserves. This study introduces an improved method for testing financial-crisis contagion and shows that crisis-contagion effects were significant among Thailand and the Chinese economic area (i.e. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The main contribution of this study is its use of a two-step procedure to identify the crisis dates for testing for contagion and data pertaining to a growing triangular economic area during the Asian financial crisis. This result suggests that if investors ignore the economic and financial information within regional markets, they will face an increase in uncertainty vis-à-vis investment returns.     

固定汇率、经济危机与流动性陷阱——从历史视角看希腊危机

欧洲中央银行宽松的货币政策,对债务危机与金融危机交织在一起业已跌入流动性陷阱的南欧各国经济没有起到任何作用。追溯20世纪30年代的全球经济大萧条、1997年东南亚金融危机以及2002年阿根廷债务危机可以发现,僵化的汇率制度只是经济危机的导火索,失衡的财政支出和经济结构才是危机根源。当前,欧元区各国经济复苏只能在紧缩财政支出、改革经济结构和财政预算的基础上,通过货币财政政策合作解决。     

International financial integration in Asian bond markets

With the development of international financial market, the degree of international financial integration increased significantly during the late 1980s and 1990s. A key factor underlying this process was the increased globalization of investments seeking a higher rate of return and the opportunity to diversify risk internationally. In this paper, we investigate the degree of international financial integration in Asia by examining the relationships amongst Asian bond markets by employing the advanced econometric technique of cointegration of error correction vectors. In other words, we propose the answers to the following questions. Firstly, what is the degree of international financial integration in Asian bond markets? Secondly, does this degree of integration significantly change after the 1997 Asian financial crisis?This study has a strong implication for investors, in particular, from the perspective of Australian or US investors, whether they do benefit from investing in Asian bond markets. In addition, understanding the extent of financial integration and monitoring its progress in the region is important for Asian central banks. In addition, increased international financial integration promotes financial development and hence enhances economic performance in the region.     

货币错配与经济金融稳定:亚太经验比较分析

中国的汇率制度改革使得在盯住汇率制度下积聚的巨大货币错配风险逐渐暴露出来.货币错配是否会影响经济金融稳定,本文通过对亚洲金融危机、日本经济衰退以及本世纪以来亚洲新兴市场国家的累积的新风险进行梳理、比较与分析,得出净外币负债型货币错配与净外币资产型货币错配在一定的条件下都会影响经济金融稳定.     

How do oil supply and demand shocks affect Asian stock markets?

This paper examines how oil market shocks affect Asian stock prices using the structural vector autoregression (VAR) approach. Global oil supply and demand shocks are disentangled using sign restrictions and elasticity bounds. Oil price increases are bad news only if the source is from oil-market-specific demand shifts. Northeast Asian stock markets are more resilient as investors’ expectation of continued economic growth outweighs the adverse effect of higher oil prices. Increased global economic activity also stimulates stock prices. Global oil shocks are more important in explaining variability in Asian stock returns compared with the United States, suggesting different dynamics in Asia.     

WHICH CAPITALISM? LESSONS FORM THE EAST ASIAN CRISIS

As a result of the Asian crisis, relationship-based economic systems are now under attack for corruption and inefficiency. Yet, until recently, they were held up as an alternative (and in some respects superior) form of capitalism to the arm's-length, market-based, Anglo-Saxon systems of the U.S. and the U.K. What went wrong? This paper suggests that relationship-based systems work well when contracts are poorly enforced and capital is scarce. Power relationships substitute for contracts, and can achieve better outcomes than a primitive contractual system. But a relationship-based system suppresses the price system and the signals it provides. As a result, relationship-based systems are likely to misallocate capital when presented with large external capital inflows. Since the external capital comes from arm's length investors who typically have few contractual rights or little power in a relationship system, and since these investors are aware of the potential for misallocation, they rationally choose to maintain control over borrowers by keeping their claims short term. Thus, the contact between the two systems creates a fragile hybrid that, while mutually beneficial to relationship borrowers and arm's length investors in normal times, is excessively prone to shocks. Where do we go from here? The authors suggest that while there may be some short-term benefits for emerging economies from reverting to the pure relationship-based system, in the long run such economies will be held back unless they develop the greater disclosure, contract enforcement, and competition of the arm's-length system. The current Asian crisis may be the most opportune moment for these economies to effect the transition between systems.     

Labor Markets and Adjustment in Open Asian Economies: The Republic of Korea and Malaysia

This article deals with the adjustment following external shocksin two open Asian economies: the Republic of Korea and Malaysia.There were important differences in the economic structure ofthe two countries as well as significant differences in theway external events produced "crises" that interrupted theirdynamic economic growth. Detailed analyses of economic cyclesin the two decades preceding 1987–88 show that the behaviorof factor markets, particularly the markets for labor and foreignexchange, helped Korea to adjust quickly to the shocks but inMalaysia actually caused the crisis to deepen. For economies heavily dependent on exports, the unit cost oflabor in dollars is of central importance as an index of thecompetitiveness of exports and hence of their ability to mounta sustained recovery after a difficult period. Accordingly,the heart of the analysis is the determination of the unit costof labor and the factors affecting its change throughout thecycles. Concentration on this critical variable helps to spotlightthe crucial differences in the factor markets of the two economies.     

论东亚汇率协调机制的现实选择

在当今国际经济一体化迅速发展的世界经济体系中,汇率无论是对单个国家经济还是对国际经济整体而言,都是影响巨大的经济变量。但是它能否在比较长的时期内保持在较为合理的水平上,则取决于合理的汇率安排。所以,东亚国家和地区应积极、有步骤地加强成员之间的政策协调和货币合作,逐步推进建立东亚单一货币区的进程。     

Measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR approach

Exchange rate shocks have mixed effects on economic activity in both theory and empirical VAR models. In this paper, we extend the empirical literature by considering the implications of a positive shock to the U.S. dollar in a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model for the U.S. and three large Asian economies: Korea, Japan and China. The FAVAR framework allows us to represent a country’s aggregate economic activity by a latent factor, generated from a broad set of underlying observable economic indicators. To control for global conditions, we also include in the FAVAR a “global conditions index,” which is another latent factor generated from the economic indicators of major trading partners. We find that a dollar appreciation shock reduces economic activity and inflation not only for the U.S. economy, but also for all three Asian economies. This result, which is robust to a number of alternative specifications, suggests that in spite of their disparate economic structures and policy regimes, the dollar appreciation shock affects the Asian economies primarily through its impact on U.S. aggregate demand; and this demand channel dominates the expenditure-switching channel that affects a country’s export competitiveness.     

Financial liberalisation,crisis, and restructuring: A comparative study of bank performance and bank governance in South East Asia

This paper examines the impact of changes in bank governance on bank performance for a sample of commercial banks operating in SE Asia between 1990 and 2003. We identify bank governance in terms of bank ownership and measure bank performance as rank order alternative profit efficiency, technical change, and productivity. The period was characterised by financial deregulation, the Asian crisis and bank restructuring programmes. To resolve financial distress, SE Asian authorities implemented inter alia bank privatisation programmes and widened access for foreign ownership. Our results tend to support bank privatisation and the repeal of state ownership on economic grounds. We suggest the potential benefits of foreign ownership may take longer to be realised. For domestic private-owned banks, the challenge is improving bank efficiency.     

Crises, Cronyism, and Credit

This paper examines the effects of several potential explanatory factors related to the 1997–1998 East Asian crisis. We find that a crisis can improve a poorly functioning credit system by making domestic lending rates more responsive to market-based returns. We report that the responsiveness of short-term lending rates is directly related to the level of transparency in the economy. Thus, countries with greater transparency (less corruption) are more likely to make credit decisions based on market-wide forces rather than succumb to the influence of special interest groups. Nations with greater transparency also experience significantly shorter and less severe economic downturns.     

The Effects of Regional Integration in Central Asia

Since gaining independence, Central Asian countries have created and joined many regional economic organizations. It is not clear whether these organizations, especially the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), have boosted integration of this region. In this paper, I conclude that exports of Central Asian countries have benefited from integration but EurAsEC has failed to live up to the expectations of its member states. This is due mainly to the different levels of economic development, defective industrial structures, and poor marketization in EurAsEC member states. At present, an initial market-based trade integration network has formed in Central Asia and has had excellent accomplishments, but the governments of Central Asian countries have still not realized the network's function and advantage.     

Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post‐Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through

Macro‐economic consequences of large currency depreciations among the crisis‐hit Asian economies varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar after the Asian currency crisis of 1997–98 in most crisis‐hit countries except Indonesia where high inflation followed a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. The high inflation meant a loss of price competitive advantage, a key for economic recovery from a crisis. This paper examines the pass‐through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian economies using a vector autoregression analysis. The main results are as follows: (i) the degree of exchange rate pass‐through to import prices was quite high in the crisis‐hit economies; (ii) the pass‐through to Consumer Price Index (CPI) was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia; and (iii) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks were positive, large, and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy, coupled with the high degree of CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the inflation‐depreciation spiral in the wake of the currency crisis.