Balance sheet effects of foreign currency debt and real exchange rate on corporate investment: evidence from Turkey

I analyze the balance sheet channels of depreciation of the Turkish non-financial corporations for 2003–2015. Having constructed a novel, hand-collected firm-level dataset on the composition and term structure of foreign currency assets and liabilities, I show that foreign currency debt and mismatch has a significant negative balance sheet effect on capital investment following a depreciation. The results remain same even after controlling for foreign currency assets and exports. This implies that the contractionary net worth effect of depreciation dominates its expansionary competitiveness effect. The result is more pronounced for the firms with short-term foreign currency exposures.     

Exchange rate volatility and economic performance in Peru: a firm level analysis

This paper analyzes the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the performance of the Peruvian economy using financial information from 163 non-financial listed firms. We find evidence that, for firms holding dollar-denominated debt, investment decisions are negatively affected by real exchange rate depreciation. The reasons behind this result are: (i) the high degree of liability dollarization and currency mismatch that create the conditions for a balance sheet effect and a financial stress in the aftermath of a currency depreciation; (ii) the strong bank-lending channel that follows and reinforces the balance sheet effect; (iii) the domestic demand shrinkage that affects severely firms’ sales; and (iv) the relatively small and poorly diversified export sector.     

Corporate foreign currency borrowing and investment: The case of Hungary

The paper investigates the impact of foreign currency lending on investment. Using Hungarian firm level data, we test whether foreign currency lending contributed to larger investment before the crisis and whether the depreciation during the Great Recession resulted in lower investment rate for firms with foreign currency loans. Results of OLS and matching estimations show that before the crisis FX lending increased investment rates and during the crisis the investment rate of firms with FX loans declined more because of the balance sheet effects triggered by the depreciation. These effects were found to be more pronounced for liquidity constrained firms.     

‘Dollar’ debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?

During the 1990s, the performance of several emerging economies was linked to their access to foreign capital. Colombia was no exception, experiencing a boom and bust cycle associated with an initial period of real exchange rate appreciation followed by a sharp depreciation. Although several studies have discussed the recent underperformance of the Colombian economy, few attempts have been made at analyzing firm-level data. We rely on information for a large sample of firms during 1995–2001 and examine the determinants of foreign indebtedness and the effects on firm performance of holding dollar debt amid real depreciations (i.e. the so-called ‘balance sheet effect’). In our data set, matching does seem to take place to the extent that firms in more open sectors and exporting firms have higher shares of dollar debt. Our estimations also reveal a negative balance sheet effect on firms’ profitability, while the effect on investment is generally not significant.     

Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile

By studying the behavior of foreign currency borrowing, maturity, sales and the investment decisions of firms listed in the Chilean Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2001, this paper assesses whether in the aftermath of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s the depreciation of the local currency (Chilean peso) affected these firms’ real and financial decisions. At issue is the contrast between a negative net-worth effect and a potential expansionary competitiveness effect for the tradable sector. We find that there exists little evidence that devaluations cause a positive impact on investment and sales for firms with dollar denominated debt. The maturity structure of Chilean firms is mainly explained by the size of the companies. Large firms will have a debt structure biased to higher maturities. Analyzing dollar denominated debt composition the evidence shows that larger firms maintained a higher proportion of dollar denominated debt reflecting the development of the financial sector in Chile.     

Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis

In this paper, we study the interaction between macroeconomic environment and firms’ balance sheet effects in Brazil during the 1990's. We start by assessing the influence of macroeconomic conditions on firms’ debt composition in Brazil. We found that larger firms tend to change debt currency composition more in response to a change in the exchange rate risk. We then proceed to investigate if and how exchange rate balance sheet effects affected the firms’ investment decisions. We test directly the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment, but the results were not statistically significant. We then pursue an alternative investigation strategy, inspired by the credit channel literature. According to this perspective, Tobin's q can provide an adequate control for the competitiveness effect on investment. Our results provide supporting evidence for imperfect capital markets, but not for a balance sheet effect in Brazil. The main effect we found is that firms in industries with higher proportion of imported inputs tend to invest less when the exchange rate is depreciated.     

Financial dollarization and debt deflation under a currency board

In the late currency board years, Argentina faced a real exchange rate adjustment through price deflation amidst growing devaluation expectations. Using a firm-level panel database to analyze the incidence of these factors on the currency composition of private debt and on firms’ performance, we find that widespread debt dollarization showed no relationship with the firms’ production mix or the ever-changing probability of a nominal devaluation. While relative price changes favored export-oriented firms with the expected impact on sales, earnings and investment, increases in devaluation expectations elicited only a marginal differential response in investment from more financially dollarized firms. Our findings provide support to two criticisms faced by the Argentine currency board in recent years, namely, that by fueling beliefs in an implicit guarantee it stimulated across-the-board debt dollarization and that it could not fully isolate the economy from real shocks, as the feared balance sheet effect was replaced by a gradual but equally deleterious debt deflation effect.     

Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel

Emerging markets' financial institutions often face a mismatch in the currency denominations of their liabilities (foreign currency-denominated debt raised from foreign lenders) and their assets (domestic currency loans to domestic borrowers). We study the effect of this mismatch on monetary policy in a sticky-price, dynamic general-equilibrium small open economy model in which the country default-risk premium depends on domestic banks' balance sheets due to asymmetric information. A fixed exchange rate rule that stabilizes bank balance sheets offers greater stability than does an interest rate rule that targets inflation to offset the real effects of sticky-prices.     

Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis

We use Mexican firm-level data to study the role of currency mismatches in the corporate sector in exacerbating the negative effects of a devaluation. We also investigate what drives Mexican firms to borrow in foreign currency. We find that holding dollar denominated debt in a devaluation adversely affects firms’ earnings and investment. However, exporters invested more than non-exporters in the same period. We also find that the negative effect of dollar debt was stronger than the positive effect of exports in the 1994 crisis for firms with positive dollar debt and/or exports, relative to firms that did not borrow abroad and/or export. This was a result of imperfect currency matching by firms. However, in the 1998 crisis firms managed the denominations of their inflows and outflows much better and these two effects were roughly equal in magnitude. We also find some evidence of currency matching by exporters, especially after the introduction of the floating exchange rate.     

A Study on Firms with Negative Book Value of Equity

This paper studies the puzzling negative book equity phenomenon among US public firms. Our evidence suggests that negative book equity firms exhibit heterogeneous characteristics. We show that a great portion of these firms, while operating at excessive capital structure with leverage ratio over 100%, are financially and operationally healthy. These healthy negative book equity firms increase their debt primarily motived by a need for funds to fulfill investment demand. We also find that the off‐balance sheet intangible assets and quality of intangible assets play an important role in determining the true debt capacity of these firms.     

Local currency systemic risk

Emerging country governments increasingly issue local currency denominated bonds and foreign investors have been increasing their holdings of these assets. By issuing debt denominated in local currency, emerging country governments eliminate exchange rate risk. The growing stock of local currency government debt in the financial portfolios of foreign investors increases their diversification and exposure to fast growing economies. In this paper, we highlight some of the risks associated to this recent trend. First, we adopt the CoV aR risk-measure to estimate the vulnerability of individual countries to systemic risk in the market for local currency government debt. Second, we show that our country-level estimates of vulnerability increase with the share of local currency debt held by foreign investors. A version of the old adage “When New York sneezes, London catches a cold,” used often to describe the relationship between the stock markets in these two cities, still applies between individual emerging countries and the aggregate market for local currency government debt.     

Cross-border banking,credit access,and the financial crisis

We study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging European countries before and during the financial crisis. We use survey data on 10,701 applicant and non-applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders. We find strong evidence that firms' access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks. During the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and Tier 1 capital, as well as losses on financial assets. We also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks. The effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets.     

Exchange Rate,External Orientation of Firms and Wage Adjustment

We estimate the effect of exchange rate movements on firm‐level wages, using a representative panel of Italian manufacturing firms. We show that the direction and size of wage adjustment is shaped by the international exposure of each firm on both the sale and cost side of the balance sheet, similar to the response of employment documented in (Nucci and Pozzolo, Journal of International Economics 2010; 82 : 112.). Through the revenue side, wages tend to rise after a currency depreciation and the effect is more pronounced the higher is the firm's exposure to sales from exports. Through the expenditure side, a depreciation induces a cut in the firm's wages, and the effect is larger the higher is the incidence of imported inputs in total production costs. For a given degree of external orientation, both these effects are larger for firms with a lower market power. Moreover, we document that the effect of exchange rates on wages is shaped by the extent of sectoral import penetration in the domestic market.     

The Dynamics of Currency,Savings, and Investment Rates

This paper examines the dynamic relations among foreign exchange rates, savings, and investment ratio for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We find that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated of order (1, −1). This result is consistent with the literature on the savings–investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Using country‐specific and longitudinal panel vector autoregressive models, we show that historical savings–investment differentials do not help explain foreign exchange rates. We demonstrate, however, that foreign exchange rates and trade balance ratio impact the difference between savings and investments. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the savings–investment difference to widen.     

金融危机理论演进与发展研究

随着我国金融开放的深度和广度的不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生。我国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。由于金融危机的最大特征就是货币的急剧贬值,关于货币危机的研究也最为成熟,目前已形成四代理论模型。而银行业危机理论和外债危机理论的研究比较分散,还没有形成像货币危机理论那样完善的体系。     

Internal capital markets,empire building,and capital structure

Internal funds generated by assets in place are available to finance the bulk of new investment by nonfinancial firms. Self-interested management has incentives to misallocate these funds in order to increase their control rents. There are two ways to impact future discretionary investment. First, using debt diverts funds to creditors and away from management. Second, having in place more assets that do not provide internal financing reduces the funds subject to managerial discretion. Investment in such assets and debt financing are inversely related in controlling self-interested management. As a result, firms borrow more and own proportionally more assets that provide internal funds as the average profitability of these assets, or that of future investment, increases. Firms may borrow less while increasing investment in the less valuable assets that do not supply internal financing as the expected profitability of these assets increases.     

Asset Policies During an Oil Windfall: Some Simple Analytics

Many developing countries are currently experiencing oil windfalls, whether due to discoveries or to price effects. Such windfalls pose a series of policy dilemmas. The literature has focused on one of these: the choice between using windfall savings for public capital formation and investment in foreign assets. There are good theoretical reasons for investing a substantial part of the windfall initially abroad: the return to investment would fall below the world interest rate if the windfall were to be used entirely for domestic investment. Investing abroad offers an escape from diminishing returns: foreign assets can be repatriated gradually and used for domestic investment. However, in practice the efficient balance between domestic and foreign assets is politically difficult to sustain. Also, even if politically feasible this strategy is inefficient due to the failure to expand the private capital stock (‘equipment’). The policy problem is that the government cannot undertake such investment itself and trying to induce private agents to undertake equipment investment by transferring part of the windfall to them is likely to fail as a result of information problems. We argue that domestic debt repayment solves this dilemma. It has the added advantage of making foreign asset accumulation difficult to reverse.     

金融部门人力资本配置与实体企业金融资产投资

在实体经济“冷”与虚拟经济“热”的大背景下,中国实体企业投资于金融资产的比例快速提升,经济金融化格局正在加速形成。本文试图从金融部门的人力资本配置视角对实体企业金融资产配置的形成逻辑进行诠释。本文以人均受教育年限来衡量金融部门的人力资本配置,采用2008年经济普查微观数据库的数据构造地级市层面的度量指标,并匹配至2009—2018年非金融类上市公司进行实证检验。计量结果显示,金融部门的人力资本水平越高,实体企业金融资产配置越多,且该效应在信息不对称企业中尤为显著。进一步的机制检验发现,在金融部门人力资本提高的条件下,实体企业债务期限显著缩短,具体表现为短期负债增加而长期负债减少。本文研究结论表明,人力资本偏向金融部门增强了其在信贷合约中的市场势力,信贷供给短期化是实体企业金融化的重要原因之一。     

The arrival of the Euro and its implications for Asia

The third stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) commenced on January 1, 1999 with the launch of the European single currency, the euro. The first round of participants comprises 11 of the 15 European Union (EU) nations, dubbed “Euroland.” The potential implications of EMU for Asia are immense. The euro's emergence as an international currency and its impact on Asia can be assessed in 3 different domains: (1) as a medium of exchange for Europe's trade with Asia; (2) as a store of value in stocks and bonds in world capital markets; and (3) as part of official foreign exchange reserves of Asian central banks. Our analysis suggests that there is potential for the euro to play a bigger role in EU-Asia trade links, which will be underpinned by the collective importance of Euroland as a much-enlarged trading and investment partner for Asia. However, in the short term at least, Asian equity markets are unlikely to benefit from significant inflows of capital from the EU as the former have been decimated by the region's financial crisis. As for Asian bond markets, rapid deterioration of sovereign ratings of countries in the region over the past 12 months would make it difficult for Asian companies to raise funds through euro-denominated debt instruments. As for official foreign exchange reserves, the bulk of Asian reserves is currently held in US dollar assets. Judging from Asian trade and debt figures, it seems unlikely that the euro would challenge the US dollar as a reserve currency any time in the near future. Nevertheless, in the longer term, the euro's introduction could make it easier for Asian central banks to diversify their reserves from the greenback to the euro. The internationalization of the euro is likely to happen only gradually, whether in terms of international trade denomination and settlement, denominating international financial assets, or as a reserve currency. Since the magnitude of shock that the single European currency would bring to the international monetary system is still unknown, only very tentative conclusions for the impact on Asian countries can be drawn at this point in time.     

An explicit partial‐equilibrium model to justify the Generalized Marshall‐Lerner condition (GML)

Robinson's derivation of the Marshall‐Lerner condition (ML) is more general in that she considers a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium with the incorporation of the supply curves of exporters. This paper examines a partial equilibrium analysis of a country's imports and exports markets within a theoretical model which considers both the demand and supply sides in these two internationally traded‐goods markets. The aim here is to show explicitly how the Generalized Marshall‐Lerner condition (GML) of Robinson can be obtained. We examined the two effects of the nominal depreciation of the domestic currency on the trade balance: the volume effect and the value effect and how they counterbalance each other. We found that the standard Marshall‐Lerner condition (ML) was not sufficient when the trade balance was initially in deficit and it was also not necessary if the trade balance showed an initial surplus. Moreover, this study provides a new interpretation for Robinson’ sufficiency condition where the trade balance must improve following a nominal depreciation of domestic currency when the elasticity of foreign demand exceeds the ratio of imports to exports. This paper also examines the situation of a small open economy which could not influence the world prices where the foreign demand for exports and the foreign supply of exports are infinitely large. Finally, there is a discussion on two policy implications for exchange rate regulation: the amount of devaluation that is necessary to improve a given trade imbalance as a governments intervention and additional support for the slow improvement of the trade balance in the short run after a devaluation policy known as the J‐Curve effect.