公共投资与经济增长的相关分析--中国数据的计量检验

本文在现有文献研究的基础上,依据中国改革开放20多年的实际数据,运用内生增长理论构建计量经济模型,对公共物质资本投资、公共人力资本投资及R&D投资与经济增长的相关性进行了协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,结果发现:三种公共投资具有不同程度的正向经济增长效应,并且其促进经济增长的路径也不相同.公共物质资本投资主要是通过资本积累效应拉动经济增长,而公共人力资本投资及研发投资则是通过提高全要素生产率及外部性效应促进经济增长.并且,在不同的发展阶段上,三种公共投资与经济增长的因果关系及驱动机制又有所不同.针对实证结果得出结论及政策建议,进而为优化我国公共投资政策提供决策依据.     

Political Rivalry Effects on Human Capital Accumulation and Inequality: A New Political Economy Approach

We propose an endogenous growth model with new political economy elements in order to (1) examine how political incentives affect economic allocations and (2) study the effects of political rivalry on human capital accumulation and income inequality. Focusing on two important policies affecting economic performance—fiscal policy and public investments in human capital accumulation—we find that different political incentives have distinct effects on policies and economic allocations. We also find that political rivalry increases income inequality and reduces economic growth and human capital accumulation through its negative impact on public investments in education, wages and individual learning choice.     

Industrial policy,structural transformation and economic growth: Evidence from China

Industrial policy is an important means for governments to promote industrial development and accelerate economic growth. This paper mainly uses the Chinese Law and Regulation Database as the source of the relevant laws and regulations of China’s industrial policies from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, it empirically examines the impact of industrial policies on economic growth. The study finds that China’s industrial policy has significant positive effects on economic growth and that industrial structure rationalization is an important channel of industrial policy to improve economic growth. The findings are also valid under a series of robustness tests and endogenous corrections. The results of heterogeneity tests confirm that there are heterogeneous effects pertaining to industrial policy on economic growth among different subregional areas, administrative levels, industrial development stages, and industrial policy types. Overall, this paper supports the hypothesis that industrial policy has positive effects on economic growth and, accordingly, provides a basis for industrial policy implementation.     

东北三省经济增长的阶段性特征及制约因素——基于扩展的Solow模型比较分析

在传统Solow模型基础上引入人力资本、市场化水平、服务业发展水平因素,然后运用该扩展的Solow模型对东北三省1978-2011年的经济增长进行了全要素分析,并按照东北三省的经济发展特点进行了分阶段研究结果表明,1978年以来东北三省经济年平均增长率由高到低依次是吉林、辽宁、黑龙江,但都呈现出不断加快的趋势物质资本和技术进步对东北三省经济增长的贡献率最高,而人力资本、市场化水平、服务业发展水平的贡献率则普遍较低,且在各省之间表现出不同的阶段性特征应加大对人力资本的投资力度;加快市场化改革进程;加快第三产业,特别是生产性服务业的发展.     

The ‘amelioration’ of child labor, ‘a modest proposal’

More than 317 million children between the age of 5 and 17 are working in the world. Child labor is a persistent phenomenon, even though its incidence has subsided with economic development. In this paper, we conduct a panel study of 101 countries from 1980 to 2004 where child labor is proxied by the labor force participation of children aged 10–14. We look at the relationships between child labor and investments in human capital, foreign direct investments, countries’ openness to trade, and credit market constraints. We depart from the contributions of cross-country studies by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of child labor and individual country-specific effects. We find support for the conclusions of the above-mentioned studies: countries that trade more and have a higher stock of foreign direct investment have less child labor. More generally, we find that trade openness, investments in human capital, and financial development are associated with a reduction of child labor. Child labor persists but tailored policies on trade, investment, and financial reform can lessen child labor along with economic growth, improvements in health, and rising standards of living.     

Lohnimpulse und Wirtschaftswachstum — eine Simulationsanalyse für die Eurozone

Since the global financial and economic crisis, the question has arisen whether a policy of wage restraint could lead the European crisis countries back onto a more stable growth path. Using simulation calculations for varying wage setting strategies in Europe through 2030, the advantages and disadvantages of such a scenario can be discussed. One of the main findings is that temporary wage restraint in the economically weak countries only works as a means to regaining competitiveness if accompanied by other economic policies at the European level. These policies include higher wage growth in the economically stronger countries, transfer payments to foster investments and the acceptance of higher inflation rates in the eurozone.     

贸易开放、外国直接投资优惠与我国地区的经济增长——基于大国经济的视角

自1992年开始,我国进口关税水平开始大幅度减让,贸易和外国直接投资的全方位开放格局逐渐形成。本文从地理位置上将我国划分为东、中、西三个地区,探求贸易和外国直接投资在这三个地区的影响及影响的地区差异。研究结论表明开放有利于知识的积累和经济的增长,但关税减让作用在东部地区最为明显,以开发区为平台的外国直接投资优惠政策的作用在中部地区最为明显。     

全国及省际能耗强度与碳强度约束下经济增长优化研究

本文建立了在全国及省际能耗强度和碳排放强度约束下省区经济增长优化模型,分析了三种假设情景中2010-2015年各省经济增长、能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的最优分配路径的异同,指出了各种情景下经济增长、能源消耗和二氧化碳排放变动较大的省区,比较了各种情景下的节能成本和减排成本,分析了各种情景下全国能源消耗和二氧化碳排放对全国生产总值的脱钩状态。优化结果显示,现行全国及各省能耗强度约束对贵州、青海、宁夏和山西经济发展较为不利,对其他省区经济发展较有利。减慢经济增长速度和进一步降低全国能耗强度对节能减排的作用均比较明显。若全国能源碳强度遵循历史变化趋势,则2010-2015年全国能耗强度和碳排放强度最大降低幅度约分别为17.27%和21.07%。     

Does the green loan policy boost greener production? – Evidence from Chinese firms

The trade-off between stable economic growth and environmental protection has been widely discussed in China, with the rest of the world paying closer attention to the emerging norms of this discourse. Government intervention and policy guidance are believed necessary in spurring firms to adopt more sustainable production approaches. This paper investigates the impact of the Green Loan Guide policy on pollution and firm performance. More specifically, we explore the impacts of the People's Bank of China's Green Loan Guide policy on Chinese firms using information from Chinese manufacturing firms for the period 2010–2017 derived from public databases and individual firms. We apply a difference-in-differences method to analyze the effect of the policies on pollution reduction and to avoid endogeneity problems. Our empirical findings indicate that the green loan policy significantly increases investments that curb pollution and encourages firms to reduce emissions, introduce new energy sources, and demonstrate greater environmental responsibility. We further show that investment in pollution control crowds out investment in fixed and intangible assets due to the financial constraint mechanism, and that it decreases sales growth, return on assets, and return on sales.     

Social trust and angel investors' decisions: A multilevel analysis across nations

The decisions made by angel investors are embedded in and influenced by their institutional settings. This paper advances a multilevel model of the direct and indirect effects of social trust on individuals' angel-investment decisions. It is postulated that two dimensions of social trust, namely the level and radius, can enhance information transmission, collaboration, and sanctioning mechanisms within a society. Consequently, they facilitate angel investment and moderate the relationship between it and individual factors. A multilevel model of data from 191,907 individuals across 25 countries shows that individuals in countries with a high level of trust are more likely to make angel investments. Whereas both the level of trust and the radius of trust are found to heighten the positive relationship between an individual's perceived entrepreneurial skills and angel investment, it is interesting to note that these factors weaken the relationship between the perception of new business opportunities and angel investment. These direct and moderating effects are robust after controlling for wealth, cultural values, and other factors. This study contributes to the crossover between research on entrepreneurship and social-trust research.     

Economic nationalism and foreign acquisition completion: The case of China

Extending institutional theory, we incorporate a neglected but important component of formal institution, economic nationalism, into a model that specifies its effects on cross-border acquisition success. We suggest that economic nationalism has a dynamic nature and sees the interaction between protectionism and liberalism. As such, it exerts both positive and negative effects on foreign investments, contingent on how these investments are perceived as aligned with the national interests as reflected by national security considerations, foreign relations, and growth strategy. Using a data set containing 7275 announced cross-border acquisition deals in China during 1985–2010, the study finds that (1) when an acquisition activity targets essential industries or state-owned enterprises, it is less likely to be completed because of provoked national economic security concerns; and (2) when an acquirer brings technology and/or capital, or/and helps to restructure poorly-performing firms, or/and the acquirer comes from a country with good foreign relations with China, the acquisition is considered as safe and helpful for the country's development, and it is more likely to be completed.     

Alternative investments in emerging markets: A review and new trends

This paper provides a review of the alternative investments literature in emerging markets, with a focus on art and wine, angel investment, venture capital and private equity, private debt, hedge funds, crowdfunding, and IPOs. We show that there has been relatively more growth in the scholarly interest in alternative investments in emerging markets compared to alternative investments and compared to emerging markets over the period 2000–2016. We highlight topics that have been the subject of scholarly focus, and identify topics for future research.     

靠优惠政策吸引外资的局限性

改革开放以来,我国实施了一系列外资优惠政策。20多年来,这些优惠政策确实在引进外资、提升我国产业结构、促进经济发展方面起到了积极的作用。但是,随着国内外经济形势的变化,现行外资优惠政策的消极影响也逐渐显现。     

外资对中国经济的影响:基于来源地差异视角

文章在经济增长理论模型的基础上纳入不同来源地的外资,发现外商直接投资不仅与国内资本异质,而且其内部因来源地不同也存在着差异。这种异质性不仅体现在其对中国经济增长的影响上,而且还体现在对技术进步、人力资本等的外溢效应上。来源于港澳台地区的华资对中国经济增长的促进作用在所有外资中最大,而来源于美国和欧盟国家的外资的作用较小。     

外资进入与所有制约束下的劳动力价格差异

文章利用1998-2006年我国30个省市的面板数据,对我国劳动力市场化改革过程中外资与劳动力价格所有制差异变动间的关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,样本期间内港澳台商投资和外商投资的增加都会通过就业渠道扩大我国劳动力价格的所有制差异,且前者的作用要大于后者。但整个样本期间内我国劳动力价格所有制差异扩大的最主要的原因在于就业人员人力资本水平的所有制差异的扩大。分时间段回归结果表明,2001年以后外资才对我国劳动力价格的所有制差异产生显著的正向影响。     

中国经济增长与环境污染关系的空间计量分析

通过空间计量分析方法,实证中国内地31个省域经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,结果表明:省域经济增长存在全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关;废渣污染的减少可以在较大程度上推动经济增长,且这种作用逐年增强;废气污染大的工业对经济增长的贡献较大,并有不断增加的趋势;废水污染大的工业对经济增长的贡献不显著,说明经济增长摆脱了对其的依赖。另外,在实证中还发现,与空间计量模型相比,普通回归模型由于忽略了空间因素,低估了环境污染对经济增长的影响作用。     

中国旅游经济增长因素及其贡献度分析

文章以经济增长理论的进展为基础,使用中国大陆31个省(市、区)的历史面板数据,结合旅游业的经济特性,分析影响中国旅游经济增长的诸要素及其贡献度。结果表明,中国旅游经济的增长主要是依靠要素投入特别是资本投入而不是通过追求技术进步来获得的,属于典型的要素驱动型增长。价格水平、环境质量和技术进步对于旅游经济增长都具有显著的正向影响;在政府主导型发展模式作用下,各地的旅游发展绩效与其制度质量无关;可进入性与旅游发展的关系需要结合具体情境加以分析。此外,旅游发展可能会降低目的地人力资本以及教育投资需求,价格水平的持续上涨也会对制造业带来不利影响。因此,旅游发展是把双刃剑。如果处理不好旅游发展与其它产业、技术进步以及人力资本培育之间的关系,旅游业的长期繁荣同样有可能面临"资源诅咒",对地方经济的长期发展产生不利影响。     

Capital Freedom,Financial Development and Provincial Economic Growth in China

For more than three decades, China has managed to combine rapid economic growth with a strictly regulated financial sector. The discrepancy between economic and financial development has raised the question of whether China might be an exception to the so‐called finance–growth nexus. This study examines the relationship between finance and growth at the provincial level in China using a new set of measures of capital freedom and financial development. The results indicate that capital freedom and financial development are associated with both higher income and growth rates. In particular, we find that the marketisation of financial institutions and strengthening of legal and government institutions have a particularly strong impact on income and growth in low‐income provinces.     

Prediction and control under uncertainty: Outcomes in angel investing

Venture investing plays an important role in entrepreneurship not only because financial resources are important to new ventures, but also because early investors help shape the ventures' managerial and strategic destiny. In this study of 121 angel investors who had made 1038 new venture investments, we empirically investigate angel investors' differential use of predictive versus non-predictive control strategies. We show how the use of these strategies affects the outcomes of angel investors. Results show that angels who emphasize prediction make significantly larger venture investments, while those who emphasize non-predictive control experience a reduction in investment failures without a reduction in their number of successes.     

我国改革开放以来对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放20多年以来,我国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,对外贸易得以飞速发展。本文采用ADF检验、协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果检验、方差分解和脉冲响应函数等一系列现代经济计量学方法,研究我国改革开放以来对外贸易与经济增长之间的长期动态均衡关系及信息传导机制。结果表明:进出口与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系,但从短期来看,均衡关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较慢。进出口与经济增长之间存在着单向的Granger因果关系。进口和出口对经济增长都具有拉动作用,但拉动作用在长期和短期的表现有所不同。