中国基础设施服务、专业化与区域经济增长的实证研究

文章在分析基础设施影响区域经济增长的微观机制的基础上,提出了两个假说,并运用中国各地区2000年~2003年的混合横截面数据,对基础设施存量水平与专业化程度、基础设施存量水平与区域经济增长率之间的关系进行了计量检验。结果支持了假说,即地区专业化程度与基础设施存量水平正相关,各地区之间专业化程度有显著差异,地区长期经济增长率与基础设施水平之间存在倒U型关系。     

基础设施投资对经济增长的贡献:存在拐点吗——来自中国的经验证据

随着中国经济发展水平的提高和转型过程的深入,基础设施投资对经济增长的贡献率已呈现出下降趋势。我们通过一个无限期经济增长模型刻画了基础设施建设投资与经济增长的长期关系,证明两者之间存在"拐点"。同时利用中国大陆1985—2012年的时间序列数据检验了基础设施投资与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示:两者之间的长期关系中存在"拐点值",即存在一种倒"U"型关系,超过"拐点值"后,基础设施投资对经济增长的贡献则呈现出明显递减的趋势。因此,逐步放弃投资主导的增长模式,适当扩大公共投资领域,提升整个经济的竞争力应是我国今后一个时期政策调整的主要方向。     

经济增长、产业结构与工业用水

基于2003—2010年省际面板数据,分别研究经济增长、产业结构与工业用水的关系,结果表明:(1)经济增长与工业用水呈现倒"U"型关系形态,只有北京、天津和上海跨过拐点,取得经济增长与工业用水下降的"双赢",产业结构与工业用水存在正相关关系;(2)综合考虑两者对工业用水的影响,与单独考虑经济增长和产业结构因素相比,产业结构因素会延缓工业用水下降时点的到来,而经济增长会弱化产业结构因素对工业用水增加的压力;(3)环境保护要求、工业内部结构、区域间产业转移和"虚拟水战略"也是工业用水下降的影响因素。     

“新丝绸之路”交通基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长——基于多维要素空间面板数据模型

古丝绸之路随着时间的推移,曾经的辉煌已经变为了落后。随着全球一体化进程的加快,以及亚欧大陆桥等交通基础设施的不断完善,新时期的丝绸之路经济带已经形成。本文基于新经济增长及新经济地理的视角,运用空间计量方法,选取"新丝绸之路"交通大动脉陇海、兰新铁路沿线涵盖最重要的17个城市,采用建立面板数据模型的实证方法,考虑在交通基础设施的空间溢出效应的情况下,实证分析多维要素对经济增长的作用,探讨促进"新丝绸之路"这条交通经济带经济持续快速发展的对策。     

交通基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长:来自中国的实证研究

This paper develops an empirical model to test the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on economic growth. It uses spatial econometric techniques and provincial panel data of China from 1993 to 2004 to analyze the contribution of transport infrastructure to the economic growth of local province and its spatial spillover effects on the economic growth of other provinces. The main findings include: (1) Transport infrastructure and economic growth of China show an evident pattern of spatial clustering. They largely congregate in developed eastern coastal regions, forming a gradient gradually diminishing from east to west. (2) Output elasticity of local transport infrastructure is 0.106, between the values calculated by early researchers with time series data and panel data. (3) Spatial output spillovers from transport infrastructure are largely positive, but evidences of negative spatial spillovers are also found with population density spatial weights matrix model.      

交通基础设施、空间聚集与中国经济增长

中国的交通基础设施与经济增长表现出很强的空间聚集特征;经济增长与交通运输主要集中在东部沿海发达地区,并形成了由东往西逐步递减的梯度。交通基础设施与经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;交通基础设施对经济增长的弹性为0．0912,介于运用时间序列数据与面板数据得出的弹性值之间。交通基础设施与经济增长表现出单向的格兰杰因果关系,经济增长是交通基础设施发展的格兰杰原因;反之,则不然。     

交通基础设施、空间聚集与中国经济增长

中国的交通基础设施与经济增长表现出很强的空间聚集特征;经济增长与交通运输主要集中在东部沿海发达地区,并形成了由东往西逐步递减的梯度。交通基础设施与经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;交通基础设施对经济增长的弹性为0.0912,介于运用时间序列数据与面板数据得出的弹性值之间。交通基础设施与经济增长表现出单向的格兰杰因果关系,经济增长是交通基础设施发展的格兰杰原因;反之,则不然。     

中国货币化率与经济增长

近年来,中国高货币化率问题愈发严重,学者们专注于寻找其背后的原因,却忽略了对货币化率与经济增长关系的研究.为此,在对货币化率影响经济增长相关理论进行总结归纳基础上,提出货币化率与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系的理论假设,并且选择全球72个主要国家1996—2018年面板数据,对货币化率与经济增长之间关系进行实证检验.结果表明:在全样本和发达国家子样本中,货币化率与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系,目前我国货币化率水平小于全样本数据拐点值,大于发达国家子样本数据拐点值.发展中国家子样本数据则显示,货币化率与经济增长呈现正U型关系,适当提高货币化率可以促进经济增长.最后,根据上述结论,提出中国货币化率最优路径图.     

“东亚模式”的启迪与中国经济增长“结构之谜”的揭示

"东亚模式"经历了"结构性加速"与"结构性减速"的整个过程,"中国模式"与"东亚模式"是殊途同归,抑或是能够走出超越"东亚模式"的大国之路?本文基于"东亚模式"发展历程的整体评价,并结合中国现实,通过与"东亚模式"的代表性经济体——日本及"亚洲四小龙"在产业结构、人口结构、投资消费结构、外贸结构以及城乡收入结构上进行比较,透视中国经济的可行性空间。参照东亚国家和地区经济发展经验,本文使用中国地级市面板数据,针对中国经济增长的"结构之谜"通过算术平均法将五个经济结构指标合成为经济结构指数,合成的经济结构指数与经济增长呈现出"倒U"型曲线的关系,且东、中、西部城市分别处于"倒U"型曲线的不同阶段,形成一个大国"雁阵"模式,此外,五个经济结构单独对经济增长的影响也都不尽相同。     

Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth

This paper develops a structural model of infrastructure and output growth that takes account of institutional and economic factors that mediate in the infrastructure–GDP interactions. Cross-country estimates of the model indicate that the contribution of infrastructure services to GDP is substantial and, in general, exceeds the cost of provision of those services. The results also shed light on the factors that shape a country's response to its infrastructure needs and offer policy implications for facilitating the removal of infrastructure inadequacies.     

Dollarization, economic growth, and employment

Dollarization brought price stability and higher economic growth to Ecuador. Nevertheless, unemployment remained stubbornly high. Two opposing forces explain this result: sustained growth led to higher labor demand but price stabilization triggered substitution effects by cheaper intermediate goods and capital.     

The nexus between infrastructure (quantity and quality) and economic growth in Sub Saharan Africa

This paper examines the growth effects of infrastructure stock and quality in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). While previous studies established that the poor state of infrastructure in SSA slows economic growth, there is little evidence on infrastructure quality and a robust analysis on the causal links between infrastructure and economic growth. Using principal components analysis to cluster different infrastructure measures and examining the infrastructure-growth nexus in a Generalised Method of Moments while accounting for heterogeneity in a panel setting, our results reveal strong evidence of a positive effect of infrastructure development on economic growth with most contribution coming from infrastructure stock. The quality-growth effect is weak, thus giving credence to the combined effects of infrastructure stock and quality on growth, especially in regions with moderately high quality, and smaller in those with poorer quality. However, the long-term quality effect is higher than the short-term. Among the disaggregated infrastructure components, electricity supply exerted the greatest downward pressure on growth in SSA. Lastly, we find evidence for a unidirectional causality from aggregate infrastructure to growth. A number of policy implications are discussed.     

中国经济增长的特征、可持续性与潜在增长率估算:一个综述

在本文通过对中国经济增长的表现特征、可持续性和潜在增长率估算三方面的理论综述,进一步论述了中国经济增长的发展脉络,并在此基础上提出研究中国经济增长理论尚需改进的空间.     

Federal transfers, environmental policy and economic growth

We study the effects of commonly used cross-country transfer programs on uncoordinated national environmental policies, economic growth and natural resources in a federal economy. Natural resources are a federation-wide public good. In each member country, production degrades the environment, but clean-up policy can improve it. Clean-up policy is financed by taxes on polluting firms’ output and cross-country redistributive transfers. We solve for a symmetric Nash equilibrium among national governments. Transfer policies that lead to higher pollution taxes make existence harder, and are harmful not only to growth but also to the environment. The best way to improve environmental quality is to implement a taxation system that stimulates growth and broadens tax bases to finance national clean-up policies.     

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

Does the new digital infrastructure improve total factor productivity?

Improving total factor productivity (TFP) is essential to achieving high-quality and sustainable economic development. The existing literature mainly focuses on the impact of traditional infrastructure on TFP but generally ignores the role of new digital infrastructure in TFP and does not test impact mechanisms and whether there is heterogeneity in effects. Using panel data of 30 regions in China from 2006 to 2017, this paper analyzes the impact of new digital infrastructure on TFP and its mechanisms. The results are as follows: (1) New digital infrastructure can significantly improve regional TFP. After the robustness test, the results still support the findings. (2) New digital infrastructure can promote technological innovation, optimize factor allocation, and achieve economies of scale, thus improving TFP. (3) Further analysis shows that the positive effect of new digital infrastructure on TFP shows significant heterogeneity. In regions with high economic development levels, high research and development ( R&D) levels, and high traditional infrastructure development levels, the positive effect of new digital infrastructure on TFP is more obvious. These findings not only enrich the literature on digital infrastructure and economic growth but also serve as a reference for governmental departments as they optimize their strategy for developing digital infrastructure and realizing sustainable economic development.     

Public infrastructure,production organization,and economic development

We develop a political economy model of growth to examine economic development led by the interactions between an economic decision concerning a firm’s production technology (CRS vs. IRS technology) and a political decision concerning public infrastructure. We show that multiple equilibrium growth paths occur due to differences in expectations regarding the quality of public infrastructure. These multiple paths illustrate why economies with poor initial conditions can catch up to and, furthermore, overtake economies with better initial conditions. Our result could explain the experiences of some East Asian countries where the co-evolution of public infrastructure and industrial transformation spurred economic development.     

Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth

This paper analyses the effects in terms of size and volatility of government revenue and spending on growth in OECD and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking more closely at the effect of each component of government revenue and spending, the results point out that i) indirect taxes (size and volatility); ii) social contributions (size and volatility); iii) government consumption (size and volatility); iv) subsidies (size); and v) government investment (volatility) have a sizeable, negative and statistically significant effect on growth.