Export Growth and Trade Policy in Ghana in the Twentieth Century

Ghana's exports on a per capita basis failed to grow over the course of the twentieth century. The reasons for this outcome are examined in this paper. It is argued that the success which characterised the period before independence was due to the combination of an open trade policy and flexible factor markets. The reversal of such policies at the time of independence was the source of the subsequent decline. While the terms of trade for Ghana's exports have fluctuated substantially there has been little change in their level over the century. Economic failure since independence has been due to domestic policies limiting export growth. The reforms of the post 1983 period have succeeded in preventing further decline; they have failed to provide a policy environment in which rapid growth of exports can occur. The nature of this policy failure is discussed.     

Trade and Urbanisation

Insights from economics of geography suggest that greater urbanisation should lead to an increased level of trade. Larger exporting markets should also provide incentives for agglomeration. Using a novel instrumental variables approach, this study provides empirical evidence that suggests that within country urbanisation has a strong positive impact on exports of the modern sector, while exports too have a positive impact on urbanisation. Consistent with model predictions, urbanisation is also associated with a decline in exports and increase in imports in the primary sector.     

Chances for Africa’s trade in farm products

African LDCs are hard-hit by the decline in the world’s agricultural trade but there are still fair chances for increasing African farm produce exports. Yet instead of relying on commodity agreements and preferential tariffs, the countries of Africa ought to apply an offensive marketing strategy to certain products and improve trade in their home markets.     

How Do the Asian Economies Compete With Japan in the US Market? Is China Exceptional? A Triangular Trade Approach

We apply a trilateral trade approach to examine how Japanese exports and investment to China, or seven other Asian economies, affect Chinese, or the seven Asian economies', exports to the US market. The results suggest that while Chinese and Japanese exports are directly competitive in US markets, Chinese exports to the US are supported partly by Japanese exports to China. The positive correlation between Japanese exports to China and Chinese exports to the US is explained by vertical trade between Japanese multinationals and their affiliates in China. Indonesian and Philippine exports are also competing with Japanese exports in US markets, though the extent of the competition is much higher for China than for these countries.     

What the OECD-WTO TiVA Data Tell Us about Comparative Advantage and International Trade in General

ABSTRACT

This article tests the influence of distance on French international trade during the first globalization by using Germany as a mirror. Unlike Germany, the impact of distance on French exports to distant markets contradicts the literature in a context of fall in transaction costs. France did not take advantage of the globalization that was occurring at the end of the period insofar as it did not intensify its exports to emerging countries that were enjoying rapid economic growth. To understand the difficulties encountered by France in exporting, we discuss the role of commercial policy and of price competitiveness.     

Australia's Gone Chicken!

Abstract

The gross value of Australia's agriculture industry in 2001/2002 was A$38.4 billion with 65% allocated to exports. The major exports markets are South East Asia, Japan, USA, and the EU. Products include wool, beef, wheat, cotton, sugar, and wine. For Australia there have been significant changes over time in markets and production arrangements in the international arena. This is also true of the domestic market especially in the area of meat products. Australians, once dominant red meat eaters, have now “gone chicken.” The total yearly consumption of meats averages around 110 kg per person. Beef up until recent years has always been the dominant player. However, in the last 30 years chicken consumption has risen from being a marginal food item to being a product that is expected to eclipse beef consumption in the very near future. This paper explores the trends and examines the changes as they are reflected by the behaviour of consumers and market chain drivers. The paper provides suggestions that could be gainfully employed at the consumer behaviour levels for other meat producers.     

Trade deflection and trade depression

This is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country's use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country's exports to third markets. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard tariffs, or “trade remedies,” by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of the United States' use of such import restrictions on Japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US restrictions both deflect and depress Japanese export flows to third countries. Imposition of a US antidumping measure against Japan deflects trade, as the average antidumping duty on Japanese exports leads to a 5-7% increase in Japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market. The imposition of a US antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade, as the average US duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5-19% decrease in Japanese exports of that same product to the average third country's market. We also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across different importing countries and exported products.     

Australian Exports of Dairy Products

Abstract

Exports of dairy products are becoming increasingly important in terms of export earnings for Australia. The industry is the fourth highest foreign exchange earner compared to all Australia's food exports. However, Australian exports of dairy products account for about 67 per cent of the total Australian production of dairy products, and about 13 per cent of total world exports of dairy products. About 68 per cent of Australian dairy products exports are sold on Asian markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenging issues and opportunities for Australian exports of dairy products on world markets and to identify potential and emerging export markets for Australian dairy products. Australia is highly restricted on its access to world dairy product markets by the impact of export subsidies and other trade barriers of overseas markets. The current economic and political crises in Asia are also not favourable to maintain export sales on some of the Asian markets. The export support scheme in Australia has made exporting attractive relative to domestic sales. But it is anticipated that the termination of the scheme after June 2000, will reduce production and exports by 6 and 20 per cent, respectively in the short run. However, in the long run, resources will be efficiently used without government intervention and Australian dairy products will also be competitive on the domestic market. There is scope for greater market opportunities in the emerging markets in Asia and other parts of the world for Australian dairy products. Australia will also benefit from the agreement on international trade that directs exporting countries to reduce export subsidy and remove nontariff trade barriers on exports of dairy products. Australia should implement appropriate measures to inaease the milk yield per cow, to improve the quality of dairy products and to identify the need for market promotion and research in order to increase the volume of dairy product exports on world markets, especially in Asia and other potential markets such as Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas.     

绿色贸易壁垒下云南省农产品出口的现状与对策

近年来,云南省对外贸易频频遭受绿色贸易壁垒的困扰,严重影响了云南省对外贸易活动,绿色贸易壁垒日益成为制约云南省农产品出口的主要障碍。本文从绿色贸易壁垒的概念入手,分析云南省农产品遭受绿色壁垒的现状,从企业、政府、行业等方面提出使云南省农产品贸易成功跨越绿色壁垒,拓展海外市场,从而提高云南省的绿色竞争力,使云南省绿色生态农业得到进一步的完善和发展。     

重创后的复苏——世界贸易2009年回顾及2010年展望

根据世界贸易组织(WTO)秘书处最近公布的世界贸易报告概要,由于受世界金融危机和经济衰退的影响,2009年,世界贸易总量经历了70多年来最大的下降,实际降幅达到12.2%,名义降幅则更是高达23%。而2010年世界贸易则有望实际增长9.5%,其中,发达国家的商品出口可能增长7.5%,发展中国家可能增长11%。2009年,中国商品出口尽管也遭遇-16%挫折,但首次取代德国成为世界最大出口国,而进口则独一无二地没有下降,甚至实际上还有小幅增长,中国在世界商品和商业服务的进出口地位均有所上升。不过,世界贸易要真正实现恢复性增长,不仅有赖于世界经济的恢复性增长,还需要借助于WTO多边贸易体制有效抵制贸易保护主义的压力。     

现代物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于浙江省1986-2009年的数据

本文基于时间序列模型,利用浙江省1986-2009年的货物运输量、港口货物吞吐量、进出口总额和地区生产总值数据,运用协整理论和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验对浙江省现代物流与对外贸易关系进行了实证分析。结果表明两者之间存在着长期稳定的关系,进一步的分析发现货物吞吐量与进出口总额之间存在单向因果关系;并在此基础上对浙江省发展现代物流和促进对外贸易增长提出了相关建议。     

市场准出与多边货物贸易体制关系研究——兼评“限制出口案”的抗辩思路

长期以来,人们对于多边货物贸易体制的理解往往停留在市场准入这一层面,即降低进口产品关税、向进口产品开放市场。形成这种片面理解的原因固然是多方面的,其中最主要的还是与世贸组织的前身——关贸总协定创设期间的国际贸易环境有关。经过第二次世界大战的浩劫,各国政府都面临外汇短缺,都想通过扩大出口以增加财政收入。因此,人们习惯把关注的目光聚焦在关贸总协定各缔约方是否有效消除针对进口的关税壁垒和非关税壁垒。事实上,多边货物贸易体制规制的对象是双重的,即在要求世贸组织成员对其它成员开放本国(地区)市场的同时,也要求其降低本国(地区)产品出口的门槛。最近发生在中国与其它世贸组织成员之间有关中国限制部分产品出口的贸易纠纷使人们对于市场准出与多边贸易体制之间的关系有了新的认识。     

Deutschlands Position in der Weltwirtschaft

In recent years, German exports have increased at a slower pace than before the global financial crisis. Moreover, the growth contribution of foreign trade was significantly smaller. This article examines how German exports have developed since the turn of the millennium, both globally and in specific regions, and relative to world trade. The results are threefold. A look at the most important trade partners reveals that, firstly, the European economies continue to absorb the largest part of German exports. Asia and the US follow as the largest sales markets outside Europe. Secondly, the German world market share is mainly driven by the development of Germany’s market position in the EU and the US; China and the remaining Asian countries play a subordinated role in this respect. Thirdly, a comparison between the growth rates of German exports and world trade is not always useful for statements about the change in the German global market share.     

Textile Industry: Stimulus Plan Laid out as It Suffers

China's commerce ministry has said textile export growth is poised to slow down further this year and indicated that it does not plan to go back to the quota system in textile trade. The growth rate in China's textile exports will continue decreasing this year and there will be no "big increases" in exports to the US and the EU markets although quota restrictions on exports to the two markets have been eliminated from the beginning of this year,the ministry said in a statement on its website.     

贸易环境对我国出口影响的实证分析

以我国1995年1月至2009年10月出口贸易的月度数据为基础,实证分析了贸易环境的变化对我国出口的影响,结果显示:实际有效汇率的上升(人民币贬值)对我国一般贸易出口、加工贸易出口和制成品出口具有正面作用;汇率波动率越大,我国的出口贸易额就越少;我国出口贸易的收入弹性较高,一般贸易出口和制成品出口对收入的敏感性也较强;加入WTO、采取出口退税和人民币汇率改革3项贸易政策从长期来看,促进了我国出口贸易的增长。     

Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective

This paper estimates the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows using a panel of disaggregated manufactured goods for the 2000–2001 period for 75 countries. Four categories of trade facilitation are defined, measured and assessed for their impact on bilateral trade flows using a gravity model. The four measures of trade facilitation are: port infrastructure (air and maritime), customs environment, regulatory environments and e‐business infrastructure. The results suggest that raising global capacity halfway to the world average in the four areas would increase trade by $377 billion. Most regions of the world increase exports more than imports. In large part, this result stems from increased exports to OECD markets that is obtained through a country's own effort to improve ports, customs, regulations and services infrastructures. In addition, the results suggest that reform and capacity building in trade facilitation in areas related to GATT Articles V, VIII and X that are under discussion at the World Trade Organisation could expand trade and exports significantly. Many of the reform measures necessary to achieve this goal need not necessarily require large‐scale investment projects, but rather action in legal and administrative reform to facilitate trade.     

International trade in services: A portrait of importers and exporters

We provide a novel set of stylized facts on firms engaging in international trade in services, using unique data on firm-level exports and imports from the world's second largest services exporter, the United Kingdom (UK). We show that only a fraction of UK firms engage in international trade in services, that trade participation varies widely across industries and that service traders are different from non-traders in terms of size, productivity and other firm characteristics. We also provide detailed evidence on the trading patterns of service exporters and importers, such as the number of markets served, the value of exports and imports per market and the share of individual markets in overall sales. We interpret these facts in the light of existing theories of international trade in services and goods. Our results demonstrate that firm-level heterogeneity is a key feature of services trade. Also, we find many similarities between services and goods trade at the firm level and conclude that existing heterogeneous firm models for goods trade will be a good starting point for explaining trade in services as well.     

A Firm-level Examination of the Exports Puzzle: Why East Asian Exports Didn't Increase After the 1997–1998 Financial Crisis

We analyse a detailed panel dataset on Indonesian manufacturing firms to characterise the exports puzzle: the surprising absence of export-led growth after the massive currency devaluation during the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. Our results show that, consistent with trade theory predictions following better terms of trade, entry into export markets increased dramatically. In conflict with the same predictions, however, many pre-crisis exporters quit exporting. Thus stagnant export growth cannot be attributable to a lack of entrepreneurial ambition or activity amongst would-be exporters. Rather, it apparently resulted from constraints prohibiting continued exporting by pre-crisis exporters. Managerial reports of perceived constraints reveal little about why so many firms ceased exporting. However, ‘better’ firms, as proxied by foreign ownership, involvement in research and development, or investment in training, were more likely to continue exporting post-crisis.     

The middle east and the EEC: An analysis of trade flows

The Middle East has become the largest external supplier of imports to the European Community, and is also the EC's largest export market. Rising oll prices have not only affected the value of EC imports from the Middle East, but have also ultimately determined the ability of the Middle Eastern states to pay for Community exports. What are the prospects for the continuing growth of trade between the Community and the Middle East? What would be the effect of a fall in oil prices or of a decline in the EC's dependence on Middle Eastern oil?     

The Trade‐Off between Foreign Direct Investments and Exports: The Role of Multiple Dimensions of Distance

To serve foreign markets, firms can either export or set up a local subsidiary through horizontal foreign direct investment (FDI). The conventional proximity–concentration theory suggests that FDI substitutes for trade if distance between countries is large, while exports become more important if scale economies in production are large. This paper investigates empirically the effect of different dimensions of distance on the choice between exports and FDI. We find that different dimensions of distance affect exports and FDI differently. There is clear evidence of a proximity–concentration trade‐off in geographical terms: the share of FDI sales in total foreign sales increases with geographical distance. The positive relation between import tariffs and FDI intensity provides further evidence for a trade‐off resulting from trade costs. On the other hand, the share of FDI decreases with language differences and cultural and institutional barriers. The latter dimensions of distance thus affect FDI more strongly than exports.