基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的城市示范区域人均碳排放量预测方法研究

为了实现减少碳排放的目标,国家大力推进了生态、低碳示范区域的建设,然而这类示范区域的碳排放量数据几乎没有得到统计,这对进一步分析示范区域的低碳措施、产业结构优化等问题造成了一定的困难。论文提出了一种预测城市示范区域人均碳排放量的方法,该方法基于示范区域低碳综合发展情况超前于所在城市发展的事实以及环境库兹涅茨曲线的科学理念,在此之上,利用城市的碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线模型预测城市示范区域的人均碳排放量。以18个国家级新区为例进行统计计算,结果表明该方法能够预测出大多数新区的碳排放量数据,东部新区人均碳排放量分布于5～14吨CO₂/人的范围内,中部新区人均碳排放量大致范围为3～8吨CO₂/人,西部新区人均碳排放量在2～14吨CO₂/人之间。     

经济增长与环境质量——基于山西省环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证检验

本文根据山西省1991～2006年经济与环境统计数据,采用6种具有代表性的环境质量指标与人均实际GDP建立了山西省环境库兹涅茨曲线的计量模型,并据此分析了山西省经济增长与环境质量变化之间的关系。结果表明,主要环境指标模型的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征并不明显,各污染排放量与人均实际GDP仍处于同步上升阶段,说明山西省环境质量随着经济增长仍处于恶化阶段。     

中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线实证研究

本文结合环境库兹涅茨曲线方法研究中国人均产值和人均碳排放之间的关系。运用1978—2008年的数据进行实证分析,结果显示,我国人均碳排放和人均产值之间并不存在倒U关系。此外,模型中还添加了人均碳排放的一阶滞后项和反应结构效应的第二产业比重,结果表明历史碳排放对下一期的碳排放有着显著的影响。     

广东省环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究

文章采用1997--2006年间广东省21个城市的面板数据对该省的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行实证分析,并提出了相应的建议。研究发现,“三废”排放量与人均GRP之间并不存在“倒u”型环境库兹涅茨曲线。而是呈现“u”型、“N”型和“倒N”型曲线,这说明环境库兹涅茨曲线这一理论假说因有较强的地域性而有其局限性,广东省目前仍面临着严峻的环境压力。     

北京市环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析

本文选取北京市1989～2006年的经济与环境数据,建立了北京市经济增长与主要污染物排放的计量模型,绘制了北京市主要污染物排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线.实证研究表明,自20世纪90年代以来,北京市的主要污染物排放已经得到有效控制,北京市正在走上高增长、低污染的可持续发展道路.产业结构的优化、环境政策的强力实施、环境技术的后发优势和公众环境意识的提高是北京市实现经济与环境和谐发展的关键因素.     

北京市环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析

本文选取北京市1989～2006年的经济与环境数据,建立了北京市经济增长与主要污染物排放的计量模型,绘制了北京市主要污染物排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线。实证研究表明,自20世纪90年代以来,北京市的主要污染物排放已经得到有效控制,北京市正在走上高增长、低污染的可持续发展道路。产业结构的优化、环境政策的强力实施、环境技术的后发优势和公众环境意识的提高是北京市实现经济与环境和谐发展的关键因素。     

中国经济增长与环境污染关系的研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的面板数据分析模型,并考虑了人口密度、环保政策、贸易开放度、技术进步、产业结构在内的其他因素对SO2排放量的影响,选取全国30个省、自治区、直辖市2004—2011年这8年的面板数据,对我国经济增长与环境污染指标SO2排放量之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,与倒U型的环境库兹涅茨曲线不同,我国人均GDP与人均SO2排放量存在倒N型关系。并结合控制变量对环境作用的正负效应提出了有助于降低SO2排放量、改善环境质量的针对性的政策建议。     

广州市环境库兹涅茨曲线分析

本文以广州市的经济增长和废水、工业废气排放的关系为例，选取了广州市1982～2004年经济增长与废水、废气排放等环境数据，建立了人均GDP与废水、工业废气排放量的模型，并绘制了环境库兹涅茨曲线。研究发现，广州市的经济与环境发展符合环境库兹涅茨曲线，呈倒u形，人均GDP与废水排放量曲线已位于转折点，人均GDP与工业废气排放量曲线已接近转折点，表明该市进入了经济与环境协调发展的有序时期，技术进步和产业结构的调整已产生了明显的环境效益。同时也说明了广州市目前已处于工业化发展的中期，并进入了经济与环境协调发展的有序时期。     

河南省能源消费碳排放量演变及其与经济增长关系的研究

笔者计算了1978年~2009年河南省一次能源消耗的碳排放量。研究发现,1978年以来,河南省一次能源消耗的碳排放数量一直在增加。碳排放强度虽然逐渐下降,但人均碳足迹却不断上升,其中,煤炭消耗的碳排放量是总排放量的主要来源。河南省一次能源消耗的人均碳足迹与人均GDP的关系并不符合标准的环境库兹涅茨曲线,而是呈现出三次曲线关系,而碳排放强度与人均GDP之间呈则现出反比曲线关系。     

Environmental resilience and economic growth: Command economy's optimization and environmental Kuznets curve

This paper constructs a two-sector environmental growth model with explicit mathematical derivation and economic intuition in a social planning economy. Through the optimal allocation of man-made capital between the production sector and the environmental sector, this paper shows that the trade-off between economic growth and environmental protection exists only when an economy deviates from its steady state. We also provide short-run transitions for both the whole economic system and individual control and state variables. In addition, technological progress in the production sector benefits economic growth rate while the improvement of technology in the environmental sector has only level effects on economic variables. This paper ends with a link between the theory and a hot empirical issue — the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis.     

The econometrics of the environmental Kuznets curve: an illustration using Australian CO2 emissions

Four econometric issues associated with the estimation and testing of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) are considered: (i) model specification with respect to the order of the polynomial, (ii) model specification with respect to the use of linear or log-linear specifications, (iii) integration and cointegration considerations, and (iv) missing variables and time trends. These issues are examined in reference to Australian data on four measures of CO2 emissions and three measures of per capita income. While evidence is provided for an inverted U-shaped EKC, the results cannot be generalized. It is concluded that without the use of sensitivity analysis, the results are typically fragile.     

北京碳排放与经济增长间关系的实证研究——基于EKC和STIRPAT模型

利用1981—2010年北京经济增长和碳排放的数据,验证了两者间EKC的存在性。运用碳生率和脱钩指数分析了经济增长与碳排放的短期静态关系和长期动态关系,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了北京碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:北京经济增长与碳排放之间存在倒U型关系,拐点为人均GDP为34423元;研究期间北京碳生产率呈不断上升趋势,年均增长率为6.1%;在1981—2010年期间的绝大部分年份,北京处于弱脱钩状态,脱钩指数与其经济发展阶段比较吻合;经济发展水平对北京碳排放的影响最显著,其次是能源利用效率,能源消费结构的影响较小。     

Environmental awareness and environmental Kuznets curve

We study the impacts of environmental awareness on environmental quality and income-pollution relationship. For our theoretical analysis, we examine a non-cooperative transboundary pollution control game between a less developed country (LDC) and a more developed country (MDC), and find that a higher level of environmental awareness by the government and citizens of the LDC has comprehensively beneficial effects on environmental policy and regional environmental quality. It also flattens the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and shifts it to the left. Our empirical findings confirm the theoretical projections. In the LDCs, environmental awareness plays an influential role in determining environmental expenditure; also, EKCs arrive at the peaks earlier, in countries where the public has higher environmental awareness.     

The environmental Kuznets curve in a world of irreversibility

This paper develops an overlapping generations model where consumption is the source of polluting emissions. Pollution stock accumulates with emissions but is partially assimilated by nature at each period. The assimilation capacity of nature is limited and vanishes beyond a critical level of pollution. We first show that multiple equilibria exist. More importantly, some exhibit irreversible pollution levels although an abatement activity is operative. Thus, the simple engagement of maintenance does not necessarily suffice to protect an economy against convergence toward a steady state having the properties of an ecological and economic poverty trap. In contrast with earlier related studies, the emergence of the environmental Kuznets curve is no longer the rule. Instead, we detect a sort of degenerated environmental Kuznets curve that corresponds to the equilibrium trajectory leading to the irreversible solution. I would like to thank Alain Venditti, Mabel Tidball, Alain Jean-Marie and Thierry Bréchet for their helpfull comments and suggestions. I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee whose comments have greatly improved the paper.     

Green technical innovation, environmental expenditure, and the environmental Kuznets curve： a dynamic s model

The relationship between the emission of pollutant and economic growth has attracted a lot of attention in the environmental debate of the recent decades. Based on some theoretical and empirical research on environmental Kuznets curve （EKC）, this paper introduces the environmental technical innovation and environmental investment into Salow growth model to discuss the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission of pollutant By the dynamic simulation and parameters analysis, the results of the model indicate： （1） when ＂green＂ technical progress and environmental investment are fixed, the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission shows the linear relationship; （2） ＂green＂ technical progress can lead to the positive growth rates with a decreasing level of emission, which is compatible with an EKC; （3） the proportion of the environmental investment can lead the different growth rates and level of emission. These results can explain that developing countries are ＂too poor to be green＂.     

Economic prosperity, biodiversity conservation, and the environmental Kuznets curve

Many conservationists contend that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are incompatible goals. Some economists contest this viewpoint, arguing that wealthier countries have the luxury of investing more heavily in efforts to conserve biodiversity. Under this assumption, we expect a U-shaped relationship between per capita wealth and proportion of species conserved. We test this environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using estimates of per capita income and deforestation rates (index of biodiversity threat) for 35 tropical countries. A prior analysis [Dietz, S., Adger, W.N., 2003. Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort. Journal of Environmental Management, 68:23-35] using conventional regression techniques failed to provide any support for the parabolic relationship predicted by the EKC hypothesis. Here, we introduce the use of quantile regression and spatial filtering to reanalyze this data, addressing issues of heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation. We note that preliminary analysis using these methods provides some initial evidence for an EKC. However, a series of panel analyses with country-specific dummy variables eliminated or even reversed much of this support. A closer examination of conservation practices and environmental indicators within the countries, particularly those countries that drove our initial support, suggests that wealth is not a reliable indicator of improved conservation practice. Our findings indicate that an EKC for biodiversity is overly simplistic and further exploration is required to fully understand the mechanisms by which income affects biodiversity.     

Environmental productivity and Kuznets curve in India

As a result of India's extremely rapid economic growth, the scale and seriousness of environmental problems are no longer in doubt. Whether pollution abatement technologies are utilized more efficiently is crucial in the analysis of environmental management because it influences the cost of alternative production and pollution abatement technologies. In this study, we use state-level industry data of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and suspended particular matter over the period 1991-2003. Employing recently developed productivity measurement technique, we show that overall environmental productivities decrease over time in India. Furthermore, we analyze the determinants of environmental productivities and find environmental Kuznets curve type relationship existences between environmental productivity and income. Panel analysis results show that the scale effect dominates over the technique effect. Therefore, a combined effect of income on environmental productivity is negative.     

Health benefits of tunneling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)

In this paper, we first add to what is a growing literature on the existence and nature of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model for developing countries, by testing for the existence of an EKC for China using a panel data set of city-specific, annual ambient levels of SO₂ pollution. We find some support for both the typical inverted-U-shaped relationship and an N-shaped, cubic configuration. More significantly, we then explore the possibility of China's “tunneling” through the EKC, by using newer, cleaner technologies, and thereby avoiding some of the environmental degradation that had often accompanied economic growth. Specifically, we estimate and economically value the health benefits realizable to Chinese cities from successful efforts to “tunnel” under the EKC over the next generation.