客户风险评级管理工作研究——以湖北省证券保险行业为例

客户风险评级管理是金融机构履行反洗钱客户身份识别义务的重要内容。近年来随着证券保险行业纳入反洗钱监管体系,客户风险评级管理工作变的十分重要。首先介绍客户风险等级评级管理工作的必要性,从湖北证券保险行业客户风险等级划分的工作现状出发,探讨客户风险评级管理的科学分析方法,并就建立科学方法提出相关建议。     

本土代工企业竞争力提升策略实践——宝成鞋业的发展启示

环境变化使我国OEM厂商面临企业升级的巨大压力。文章在实地调研的基础上,分析了宝成鞋业在OEM生产上的关键成功因素,具体包括构建先进研发能力、建立原材料“战略供应商制度”与客户的“议价机制”、建立企业的商誉和信用、建立客户网络以分散客户集中风险等。     

论保险信用评级制度有效性的经济学基础

保险评级结果基本上能够反映评级对象的实际风险,可以起到早期预警系统的作用.本文从信息经济学和新制度经济学层面对保险信用评级制度有效性进行分析,以期对我国保险信用评级制度的建立和完善起抛砖引玉的作用.     

论保险信用评级制度有效性的经济学基础

保险评级结果基本上能够反映评级对象的实际风险，可以起到早期预警系统的作用。本文从信息经济学和新制度经济学层面对保险信用评级制度有效性进行分析，以期对我国保险信用评级制度的建立和完善起抛砖引玉的作用。     

VMI模式下仓单质信的企业资信评级体系建立探讨

仓单质信能够有效控制VMI运作中的信用风险,但随着实践深入,仓单质信的风险逐渐显露。基于客户资信风险、仓单风险、银行风险都与信用有着密切的联系,提出建立仓单质信的供应链企业资信评级体系。研究表明:通过构造指标要素,分析评级指数设定、信用等级平均累计违约率统计以及评级结果的准确性,可以实现信贷决策的科学化、精细化发展。     

个人消费贷款风险防范探究

一、建立个人资信评估体系个人资信体系是指能证明、解释和查验自然人资信而建立的一系列具有法律效力的文本资料和行事规则。个人资信体系包括个人信用登记制度、个人资信评估制度、个人信用风险预警制度和个人信用担保制度等。有了较为完善的个人信用制度,银行就可以根据每个客户的历史记录,确定客户的风险承受能力,然后予以决策,从而有效地防范或消除消费信贷风险。1、推行个人信用登记制度,为个人资信评估提供充分依据。(1)银行要设计要素齐全的“自然人概况表”,建立个人资信评估的统一标准等级,并调查核实。贷款申请人要先填报“自然…     

我国商业银行客户信用评级方法研究

本文从商业银行客户信用评级方法角度出发,分别介绍国外商业银行的实际操作方法与现状,并与我国银行进行对比,分析发现我国银行在建立客户评级方法中存在的问题,对评级指标设置提出完善建议。希望通过这些研究建议,为我国商业银行客户评级体系的完善提供一些思路。     

内外部评级结合：商业银行信贷风险管理的有效选择

间接融资在我国企业融资中占绝对优势，而来自经济、社会、文化方面的各类因素不断诱发着诸多形态的银行信贷资金风险，而作为当前商业银行控制信贷风险手段之一的内部评级具有一定的局限性，需要外部评级为商业银行信贷风险监管助力。文章通过对我国借款企业信用评级的内涵、种类及内外部评级优势比较的分析，简述外部评级在信贷风险防范中的作用，并提出建立“内外结合”的信用评级体系，有效防范银行信用风险的建议。     

环境行政处罚与债券市场反应

党的十八大以来,我国出台了一系列环保政策,如2015年1月施行新修订的《环境保护法》,2016年1月启动“中央环境保护督查”计划等,因而环境法律风险成为社会各方的关注焦点。随着环保执法信息披露制度的日益规范,环境法律风险能否得到合理定价？对于环境法律风险冲击,资本市场、评级机构以及企业自身有何反应？文章基于2013-2018年发债工业企业受到环境行政处罚后,政府依法公开的环境行政处罚决定书,研究了环境行政处罚对债券市场的影响。研究发现,环境行政处罚会影响企业的营业收入,导致债券违约风险上升,这种现象在重污染行业中和中央环保督察之后更加明显。环境行政处罚会使评级机构出具的信用评级得分出现分化,投资人付费评级机构会加强后续的主动评级跟踪,发债企业后续则更多地选择没有下调企业信用评级得分的发行人付费评级机构,表明两者之间存在“评级保持”而后“评级选择”的双向回馈路径。文章基于环境行政处罚视角,为环境规制如何影响资本市场提供了新的证据,也为研究企业信用评级提供了新的视角。     

隐蔽家族企业集团客户关联的授信风险及其防范对策

本文从隐蔽家族企业集团客户关联形式及其产生的潜在风险入手,分析了银行对隐蔽家族企业集团客户关联的授信风险识别中存在的问题,提出了加强关联分析、强化“三查”管理、加强技术创新、完善内控制度、多方联手监管等方面的风险防范措施.     

Does it really pay to do better? Exploring the financial effects of changes in CSR ratings

Previous literature on the link between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and financial performance has focused mainly on the financial implications of a firm’s level of CSR without considering the potential effects on financial performance of variations in CSR rating. We try to fill this gap by studying whether variations in a firm’s CSR rating affect systematic risk, firm value, and portfolio performance. First, our results show that an increase in firms’ CSR efforts, as reflected by an increase in their CSR ratings, significantly reduces systematic risk. Second, a positive variation in CSR ratings significantly improves firm value. Finally, from a portfolio perspective, a strategy that consists of buying stocks that have experienced a CSR ratings increase and selling stocks that have experienced a CSR ratings decrease (or remain stable) leads to lower financial performance. Taken together, our findings provide new evidence and financial implications for firms and portfolio managers.     

Elections, Opportunism, Partisanship and Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries

We empirically examine whether and how opportunistic and partisan political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations explain election‐period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk‐ratings (“ratings”). Analyses of 391 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987–2000, initially suggest that elections themselves prompt rating downgrades consistent with opportunistic PBC considerations, that incumbents are all likely to implement election‐period policies detrimental to post‐election creditworthiness. But more refined analyses, integrating both opportunistic and partisan PBC considerations in a unified framework, suggest that election‐period agency downgrades (upgrades) are more likely as right‐wing (left‐wing) incumbents, become more vulnerable to ouster by challengers. Together, these results underscore the importance of integrating both opportunistic and partisan PBC considerations into any explanation of election‐period risk assessments of agencies and, perhaps, other private, foreign‐based financial actors important to the pricing and allocation of capital for lending and investment in the developing world.     

数据挖掘技术在证券业营销策略分析系统中的应用

我国证券市场的建立与发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就.随着"以客户为中心"的经营理念的不断深入人心,分析客户、了解客户并引导客户的需求已成为企业经营的重要课题.本文针对当前我国证券行业的背景进行了深入的分析,着重从证券行业营销策略中应解决的关键业务及关键问题入手,充分利用数据挖掘技术等先进技术对当前证券行业营销策略分析提出了行之有效的系统解决方案.     

商业银行信用卡业务发展与风险管理

回顾信用卡业务在我国的发展历程、分析信用卡业务的发展现状,不难发现中国已成为全球信用卡业务增长最快、发展潜力最大的市场。作为未来消费信贷的重要增长点,在金融行业民间资本准入制度的放开、全球化进程不断深入、移动互联快速普及的大数据时代,民间资本、外资银行对信用卡业务的广泛渗透,以及互联网金融的创新发展,必将导致国内信用卡业务参与方关系日趋复杂,信用卡市场竞争日趋激烈。因此,信用卡业务发展过程中所面临的问题及发行风险不容忽视。文中采用行为概率及效用函数的方法对信用卡消费行为进行博弈分析,应用行为分析的结果,对信用卡业务中诸如个人信用登记评估制度,发卡机构营销、审批机制和产品附加值,消费管理和奖惩制度及法律法规制定等相关问题进行了剖析,系统分析了银行信用卡发行过程中的风险,并对信用卡市场的健康发展提出了几点建议。     

CREDIT RATING AND DEBT CRISES

We develop an equilibrium theory of credit rating in the presence of rollover risk. By influencing rational creditors, ratings affect sovereigns' probability of default, which in turn affects ratings. Our analysis reveals a pro‐cyclical impact of credit rating: In equilibrium the presence of a rating agency increases default risk when it is high and decreases default risk when it is low.     

Bank Credit Risk Management and Migration Analysis; Conditioning Transition Matrices on the Stage of the Business Cycle

Credit risk has been one of the most active areas of recent financial research. It is driven by advances in portfolio risk measurement and management techniques, growth in credit derivatives trading, the Basel II implementation, and regulatory concerns stemming from the commercial credit crunch that initially took place in 2001 and 2002 in the USA. Within this broader literature, a growing body of research analyzes the meaning, role, and influence of credit ratings that quantify credit risk. This paper examines the two-way links between credit risk measurement and the macroeconomic conditions, interpreted through phases of business cycles. We propose a methodology applied on bank internal rating data, which estimates ratings migration probabilities while integrating the state of the economy. We first discuss the issue of whether credit risk is low or high in different economic scenarios. In order to evaluate this prospect, we examine each year in four quarters that represent different scenarios throughout the year. We then review how macroeconomic considerations are incorporated into credit risk models and the risk measurement approach that underlies Basel II and Basel III.     

Pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating changes on stock returns: a fact or factoid?

This article examines the effect of changes in sovereign credit ratings and their outlook on the stock market returns of European countries at different phases of business cycle. Using standard four-factor model, it records a significant average marginal effect of credit rating announcements on stock market returns. Both magnitude and significance of the effect vary with business cycle and across announcement types. However, we do not find evidence of pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating and outlook changes on stock returns. Our results show that stock markets react more negatively to rating downgrades in recovery phases and more positively to rating upgrades in contractionary period. Both results are statistically significant and robust to various sensitivity tests.     

Rating of Network-Integrated Corporations

While conventional rating systems are still focused on individual companies, in reality stand-alone business of a single enterprise respectively debtor is more likely the exception than the rule. Joint business activities of two or more companies (organizational networks) are becoming ubiquitous and have a critical influence on each partners’ success. In order to avoid that rating that turns into some rather useless ritual, network characteristics, such as network assets, network capital, network securities, network management competency, network business opportunities and network structure have to be taken into account when evaluating solvency of a network-embedded corporation. Using primary credit cooperatives as an illustrative object, this paper gives an overview on those new rating criteria becoming relevant in conjunction with network-embeddedness, so that workable opportunities can be shown to improve the reliability of ratings.      

基于灰色关联熵的顾客满意度系统研究

顾客满意度系统是由企业/品牌形象、顾客预期质量、顾客质量感知和顾客感知价值等诸多因素组成的复杂的社会经济系统.提升顾客满意度不是单纯的企业活动,而是通过企业活动影响顾客的心理活动和实际行动的全过程.顾客满意度系统是一种动态有序的非线性耗散结构,这种结构与外界有物质、能量和信息的交换.本文将顾客满意度作为一个社会经济系统,在系统工程、信息熵和灰色关联熵理论研究的基础上,构建顾客满意度系统与其各子系统的关联模型,并借助于耗散结构和灰色关联熵理论分析顾客满意度系统的运行机制和演变规律,为企业决策提供科学的参考依据.