城镇化对中国粮食生产与需求的影响研究

城镇化的发展会对粮食需求和粮食生产两方面产生影响。从粮食生产方面来看,城镇化会对耕地面积和农业劳动力产生直接影响,但同时城镇化所带来的农民的种粮意愿的降低以及生态环境的恶化也不容忽视;从粮食需求方面来看,城镇人口的增加所导致食品消费结构的改变是影响粮食需求的重要因素。     

中国粮食需求呈刚性增长 每年50亿公斤速度递增

2005年年底农业部长杜青林在接受《人民日报》采访时表示．中国粮食消费需求的总体看法是，需求增长是刚性的，今后每年将以50亿公斤左右的速度递增。稻米、小麦等主要口粮需求将稳定增加，必须立足国内基本自给，国际市场只能作为品种调剂。     

城镇化发展对粮食生产技术效率的影响研究*——基于我国13个粮食主产区的面板数据

[目的]以我国13个粮食主产区为研究对象,分析城镇化发展对粮食生产技术效率的影响,为促进城镇化与粮食生产的协调发展提出对策建议。[方法]基于2003—2014年粮食主产区面板数据,利用DEA模型测度粮食生产技术效率,通过面板Tobit模型分析城镇化发展对粮食生产技术效率的影响。[结果]我国各主产区粮食生产技术效率存在差异性,"完全有效型"的省份只有吉林、内蒙古和黑龙江,其他省份在纯技术效率或规模效率并未达到最优状态;人口城镇化发展对粮食生产技术效率呈现"倒U型"的影响关系;土地城镇化发展对粮食生产技术效率有反向影响;经济城镇化有利于促进技术效率的提升,而城镇居民收入水平的提高,种植结构的变化,对粮食生产又有负向影响;城镇化进程中工业废水的排放不利于技术效率的提高。[结论]粮食安全是我国的重要议题,而城镇化进程中农村劳动力外流、耕地面积锐减、资源环境压力可能对粮食生产和粮食安全产生重要影响,针对性制定相应政策促进城镇化和粮食生产协调发展。     

做好新形势下的粮食调控工作

当前,我国粮食保障工作由于工业化和城镇化加速推进出现许多新情况,粮食调控工作面临许多新问题,其主要原因是：大量农业人口进入城镇,商品粮供应量大幅度增加;我国人口已经达十三亿之多,粮食的刚性需求加大;人们对粮食产品的多样化需求增加,对吃好吃健康的要求不断提高。这些都给粮食“保供稳价”工作带来了新的挑战,使调控工作的难度加大。对此,各级政府要高度重视,必须认真研究,拿出解决办法,切实做到超前谋化,确保粮食调控工作基础扎实、措施得力、预案完备,保障国家粮食安全。     

我国人均食物热值构成特点,发展趋势及其对粮食需求的影响

我国人均食物热值构成特点、发展趋势及其对粮食需求的影响徐翔人均食物热值构成是影响粮食需求的重要因素。本文拟通过对我国人均食物热值构成的特点及发展趋势的分析与研究，探讨其对粮食需求的影响。一、我国人均食物热值构成特点国民食物热值构成在很大程度上受到国民...     

城镇化对粮食需求的影响——基于热量消费视角的分析

城镇化从两方面影响粮食的需求:一方面,城镇化提高居民食品消费结构中动物产品的比重增加粮食需求总量;同时,城镇化降低劳动强度并减少热量需求从而降低粮食需求总量。本文对比城乡过去近15年的食品消费,得出如下结论:(1)无论城市还是农村,食品消费结构中动物产品的增长是我国粮食需求增长的主要原因;(2)农村居民最终粮食消费总量低于城市居民,如果按照城市居民的食品消费结构和2007年热量摄入水平计算,农村居民的粮食需求量将增加22.34公斤/年。     

粮食需求结构变化与粮食市场均衡

任何一种商品,在完全竞争的市场机制下,都会自然形成市场均衡。但是价格将要随着供给量和需求量的变化而波动。对于粮食这种商品来说也不例外。然而,由于粮食在人们生活中的重要作用,客观上不允许粮食的供给和需求大幅度的波动。即要求在粮食价格相对稳定的条件下,实现粮食市场的均衡。     

我国粮食产业衰退的需求原因及其调整前景

从产业的角度来看,经济增长的过程就是新旧产业不断更替的过程,其中,旧产业的衰退同新产业的成长一样,都对社会经济有着不可忽视的影响。尤其是我国当前正在进行农业产业结构的战略性调整,对这个问题的探讨更具有现实意义。     

Does Food Safety Information Impact U.S. Meat Demand?

A theoretical model of consumer response to publicized food safety information on meat demand is developed with an empirical application to U.S. meat consumption. Evidence is found for the existence of pre-committed levels of consumption, seasonal factors, time trends, and contemporaneous own- and cross-commodity food safety concerns. The average demand response to food safety concerns is small, especially in comparison to price effects, and to previous estimates of health related issues. This small average effect masks periods of significantly larger responses corresponding with prominent food safety events, but these larger impacts are short-lived with no apparent food safety lagged effects on demand.     

Food Demand in Mexico: An Application of the Amemiya-Tobin Approach to the Estimation of a Censored Food System

The modeling of micro-level food demand patterns requires not only allowing for household heterogeneity, but also addressing the problem of censoring. In this article, we present a variation of the Amemiya-Tobin framework for estimating a censored demand system that allows for household heterogeneity. The unique aspect of our approach is the use of a procedure that ensures the adding up of both latent and observed expenditure shares and also imposes expenditure share nonnegativity. This system is applied to an analysis of food demand based on a random sample of urban Mexican households.     

The Demand for Food Quality in Rural China

Many studies of food demand do not use actual prices but unit values, obtained by dividing expenditures by the quantity consumed. This can bias empirical analyses because unit values are not exogenous market prices; they reflect household food quality choices within each food category. This article develops a framework for assessing the resulting bias in income and price elasticities of demand and applies the framework to data for rural China. Empirical results indicate that households in rural China tend to consume higher-quality food as income increases, with a greater sensitivity to income for basic foods than for luxury foods.     

The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to U.S. Food Demand

A new demand system is introduced, the Nested PIGLOG model, nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new. This new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of U.S. food demand that include food-at-home (FAH), food-away-from-home (FAFH), and alcoholic beverages. Although nested tests and out-of-sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree, statistically insignificant improvements to in-sample-fit and even poorer out-of-sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations. Based on a subset of preferred models, FAFH is found to be price and income elastic compared to FAH which is price and income inelastic.     

Food Security, Urbanization and Social Stability in China

Chinese development in both the planned economy and reform periods was determined within narrow constraints of food security, agricultural productivity and social organization of production. The reforms and their effects, most prominently rapid urbanization while ensuring food security also caused the loss of cultivable land to agriculture, environmental decline, and new dietary demands on food production. The institutional trajectories and dynamics of these processes are explored in relation to global perspectives on China's global impact.     

Promotion and Fast Food Demand

Many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in North America. Industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand. We study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete / continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand. Estimates are obtained using a unique panel of Canadian fast food consumers. The results show that promotion primarily increases demand and has a smaller effect on restaurant market shares.     

The Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem and Food Demand Estimation

This article reports tests of aggregation over consumer food products and estimates of aggregate food demand elasticities. Evidence that food demand variables follow unit root processes leads us to build on and simplify existing tests of the Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem. We compute food demand elasticities using a method of cointegration that is shown to apply to a convenient but nonlinear functional form. Estimates are based on consumer reported expenditure data rather than commercial disappearance data.     

Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.     

Measurement Error in Recall Surveys and the Relationship between Household Size and Food Demand

Variation in household survey design and implementation is used to obtain evidence of nonrandom measurement error in recall surveys of household expenditure. These surveys, which are used especially in developing countries, appear to have measurement errors in food expenditures and in food budget shares that are correlated with household size. These correlated errors may be part of the explanation for a puzzling pattern of falling food demand with rising household size in poorer countries.     

加强碎石骨料矿山管理,应对北京城市化需求

碎石骨料是自然界中分布最广泛的矿物,也是世界上开采最多的矿物,是我国城市化最基本的资源保障.随着北京城市化进程的不断深入,碎石骨料消费量持续增长,碎石骨料矿山行业迅猛发展,但也出现了骨料矿山规模过小、行业管理滞后、环境污染严重、安全事故频发、骨料矿山产品质量差等一系列问题.因此,有必要对该行业加强管理,包括改善行业主管部门管理方式,设定骨料矿山行业标准、提高进入标准,加强投入产出分析、提高骨料矿山的生产经营水平等方面.