On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations

The classic Sargent–Wallace–Lucas (SWL) rational expectations-flexible price model is usually interpreted as implying “policy ineffectiveness”: systematic monetary rules cannot affect the distribution of real output. A contrary but not widely-appreciated result of Dotsey and King suggests that there exist “prospective feedback” rules (future money depending systematically on current but as yet unobserved information) which improve output distribution by means of improving agents’ ability to perceive relative prices.We show the Dotsey–King proposition in fact to be a colossal understatement: prospective feedback rules applied vigorously enough (and even “contemporaneous feedback” rules based on current interest rates, provided at least one prospective feedback is active) can in the limit drive price-perception errors to zero. This is not to say such a policy would be desirable. Feedback parameter combinations that reduce current price level misperception tend to produce high forecast error variances with respect to future prices, with attendant loss in capital market efficiency. Whatever the desirable frontier among these different social cost-producing variables, feedback parameters will in general be needed in order to get on the frontier as well as to move along it. Monetary policy clearly produces social gain even in a version of this model which contains no elements of price “friction,” inefficient use of available information, or asymmetry in information as between the government and the public.     

Quality-adjusted price comparison of non-homogeneous products across Internet retailers

This study compares prices offered by multiple Internet retailers. This task is challenging because e-tailers cannot present their entire assortments to each consumer. Therefore, the quality of the product assortments presented by different e-tailers to each consumer is not directly comparable on an item-by-item basis, resulting in non-homogeneous offerings across retailers. We further consider the interaction between retailers (product information presentation format) and consumers (product information search strategies), which makes price comparisons among the retailers even more non-homogeneous. To grapple with this quality-adjusted price comparison problem for non-homogeneous products, we use a stochastic-frontier hedonic-price regression model to find the “lowest” theoretical price for a product given its characteristics. We then assess the price efficiency of the product as the ratio between this lowest price and the offered market price. This framework allows for the comparison of retailers in their ability to offer the “best deals” even when their actual assortments are not directly comparable in quality. Moreover, this framework provides Internet retailers with a relative measure of price efficiency. This helps them understand when and where they offer competitive prices to consumers. We illustrate our approach empirically in a comparison of price efficiency among three major Internet travel agents on a sample of posted itineraries and airfares. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the price efficiency of an Internet travel agent depends on the format of its website and on consumers' search strategies.     

Market share as a source of market power: Implications and some evidence

This paper investigates the proposition that firms with a high market share enjoy a unique form of market power—“inherent product differentiation.” The analysis is based on a sample of 6492 banks, during the 1970s. Tests tend to control for market concentration, scale economies, and explicit product differentiation as factors influencing rates of return. Test results indicate that market share per se is a source of high profits, regardless of the level of concentration and after controlling for firm size. These findings question the Demsetz (1973) view that high profits of market leaders are due to efficiency rather than to some form of market power.These findings suggest that traditional market models that account only for a single price may be incomplete. The paper suggests a kind of simple model that would account for the existence of multiple prices in a market.     

Cost-based pricing: Behavioral aspects of price decisions for capital goods

Some empirical research is reported upon the question, whether the type of cost calculation has a significant influence on suppliers' price decisions in capital goods markets. Experimental findings indicate that highly aggregated cost information (full cost accounting) effects ceteris paribus higher offering prices than disaggregated cost information (complete transparency of cost structure). A complex causal model of price decisions in this field is developed which is capable of giving further insights into the empirical effects of psychological variables in the price decision process.     

On unit prices and their use in the analysis of the international specialization pattern within heterogeneous industries

The existence of factor intensity reversals between industrial countries has sometimes been attributed to differences in intra-industry specialisation. The industries studied are in fact quite heterogeneous. Consequently the relationships between the specialisation pattern of individual countries and differences in technology between industries may be obscured. In this paper a new method is presented with which specialisation of engineering trade can be studied in great detail. The method rests on the hypothesis that so called (metric) ton prices can be used as a proxy variable for differences in technology in a cross-section of engineering products. This hypothesis is further specified and tested in the paper for a cross-section of engineering products consisting of 40 subindustries of the Swedish engineering industry. If the outcome of the test can be assumed to hold both for a lower level of commodity aggregation and for other countries as well, the new method can be used to test different trade theories (including the factor proportions theory) on the engineering trade of industrial countries. It uses among other variables three variables constructed from the ton prices in engineering exports of OECD-Europe.The results of this paper carry major implications also on the construction and earlier use of price indices of engineering products. The results seem to imply that ton prices fo not measure product prices of engineering goods but rather the technology used in converting tons of metals into units of engineering goods. The price indices used in studies estimating price elasticities in foreign trade or production functions on time series data rest, however, im part on such an assumption.     

Pricing dynamics in US fresh produce channels: new empirical evidence

Despite many valuable contributions, prior research has not completely explained retail pricing behavior. This study employs scanner data for 36 fresh produce items analyzing the relationship between costs of goods sold and retail prices to provide further insight into retail pricing behavior. Implications include: (1) where ‘natural’ variation in produce prices do not already exist from the supplier, retailers appear to introduce the variation themselves, independent from shipping point price; and (2) to the extent that supplier-retailer contracts for fresh produce develop, the resulting stabilizing influence on costs may have the preserve effect of increasing retail price variability to consumers.     

Classifying and modeling nonlinearity in commodity prices using Incoterms

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a novel approach of classifying and modeling the nonlinear behavior of commodity prices using regime-switching models with exogenous transition variables. The approach rests on using the International Commercial Terms (Incoterms), also known as border prices, to classify commodities in groups that tend to display similar dynamics. The suggested border price classification is useful in identifying the key exogenous driving variables in each group. In particular, the classification suggests that inflation and oil price are the best transition candidates that are capable of capturing the nonlinear dynamics of free on board (FOB) and cost insurance and freight (CIF) prices respectively. Our statistical linearity tests and estimation results confirm this prediction and highlight the importance of the suggested border price classification in improving our understanding of the behavior of commodity prices.     

Is Cost-of-Service Regulation Worth the Cost?

Cost-of-service regulation that reduces prices will also reduce incentives to control cost. Increased output counteracts this trend when there are economies of scale. We derive closed-form approximations for the maximum cost increase that leaves a positive welfare gain when regulation reduces price by some percentage. To be useful to regulators, these approximations depend only on demand elasticity and the ratio of fixed to total cost. For low demand elasticities typical of regulated industries, price must fall by half to outweigh cost increases of as little as 2%. Cost-of-service regulation appears to reduce welfare unless economies of scale are strong. These conclusions may be reversed if regulators favor consumers, but only a slight bias in favor of the firm exacerbates them. Regulatory methods that preserve incentives to be efficient by divorcing price from cost become more appealing.     

Why Abandon the Paradise? Stations’ Incentives to Reduce Gasoline Prices at First

The German petrol station market is characterized by strong intraday price cycles, which probably correspond to the well-known Edgeworth cycles. The prices go up strongly in the late evening or in the middle of the night, fall relatively heavily in the early morning, and then go up and down several times in the course of the day. Locally, the analysis is limited to the 26 petrol stations that plausibly form a common market in the Lueneburg region. This paper picks out the specific sequence in which, after generally rising prices during the day, a single supplier is the first to reverse the price trend and lower its price. For this purpose, current price reports are used to define the price reduction event down to the second, and to show only the valid prices of competitors prior to the event. All German petrol stations have to report price changes to the Bundeskartellamt's Market Transparency Department. Tankerkoenig then publishes the full reports. This results in one panel observation for each price reduction event. Out of nearly 300,000 price observations, just over 10,000 panel observations result. Fixed-effect logit estimates are used to test whether the theoretically and economically significant price differences of the Edgeworth cycles explain the behavior of the price cutters, or whether market structure factors, such as brand affiliation/independence of the petrol station, service offerings, or location characteristics predict price-cutting behavior. The novel recording of the price dynamics in the petrol station market by using the accurate petrol station price data to the second indicates promising research of extensive price data and avoids the enormous loss of information in the previously common calculation of average prices at certain times.

     

Threshold levels,strike price grid,and other market microstructure issues associated with exchange‐traded equity options

This study addresses a number of important market microstructure issues associated with exchange‐traded equity options having significant research implications for studies investigating clustering on option strike prices. Price threshold levels associated with exchange listing and the automatic exercise of equity options as established by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) to carry out their regulatory and oversight responsibilities are examined. Significant changes are documented including motivation for such changes. Market microstructure issues potentially impact equity options research outcomes and one important issue is documenting changes over time to the strike price grid. A chronological outline of the introduction of option strike codes from April 26, 1973, through December 2008 is presented. Pricing discrepancies are documented between Standard & Poor's end‐of‐day updates (closing prices) and similar prices reported by Center for Research in Security Prices, Thompson, and Bloomberg, which is the source of ambiguities associated with the OCC's official settlement price. A number of quirks associated with option databases are identified to be of potential interest to researchers. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:188–201, 2010     

Duality Theory and Long–Period Price Systems

This paper concerns duality between long–period price systems in Sraffian models of production and the technologies of the various industries. We present a ‘principle of duality between prices and technique’ referred to a system of production, due to Bidard and Salvadori, and compare it with the usual textbook duality between cost and production functions, referred to firms/industries. We argue that the principle of duality for the system of production can be obtained, industry by industry, on the basis of the usual duality theory and that, in so doing, both ‘dualities’ are given a formulation more appropriate to firms/industries in long–period equilibrium.     

The International Competitiveness of CEEC Agriculture

The paper surveys the price competitiveness of agricultural production in Central and East European Countries (CEECs). It draws together empirical work conducted by tje authors and other studies that have estimated domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios for agriculture in various CEECs. The paper identifies that in general CEEC crop production is more internationally competitive than livestock farming. During the mid‐1990s, wheat production in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia was internationally competitive. In contrast, during the same period, milk production was not internationally competitive. However, there is also a considerable degree of variation from country to country; very little of Slovenia's agricultural production is internationally competitive. In the livestock sector the greatest problems lie where large herds have been broken up resulting in fragmented production. This has particularly affected beef and milk production. Considering variations in DRCs by farm type, larger private farms in Hungary and the Czech Republic are more internationally competitive than smaller private farms in crop production. If CEEC producers faced average EU prices for their traded inputs and output, most could be price competitive. However, conclusions should be treated with caution due to sensitivity of DRC ratios to changes in international prices and the choice of the shadow prices for non‐tradeable inputs     

Empirical investigation of channel reactions to brand introductions

We investigate how incumbent manufacturers and retailers alter their pricing behavior in response to new product introduction. In performing our analysis, we need to be cognizant of the fact that the observed price changes can be due to entry-induced changes in a) demand conditions or b) costs or, on the other hand, to the competitive behavior of c) manufacturers and/or d) the retailer. In order to separate these four changes, we posit that manufacturer and retailer pricing is an outcome of maximizing a combination of shares and profits. This enhanced objective function allows us to measure competitive conduct benchmarked as less or more competitive than under the Bertrand-Nash framework. Our empirical analysis is based on the toothpaste category for the time period January 1993–February 1995. During this period, there were three brand introductions in two rounds of entry. Using the estimates from the demand and the supply model, we compute the changes in the retail and wholesale prices that are attributable to changes in demand conditions, manufacturer and retailer competitive conduct, and cost changes. These results support our conjecture that inferring the change in conduct solely based on a change in observed prices is likely to be erroneous. For the first new brand entry, we find that the brand introduction did not significantly increase competition between manufacturers. As a result, the balance of channel power between the manufacturers and the retailers remained unaltered. Both retailer and manufacturer profit margins increased after the first entry. However, subsequent to the second entry, retailer share of channel profits increased at the expense of the manufacturers; manufacturers even saw a decline in their absolute profit margins. We believe that this research will provide insight for manufacturers and retailers regarding how the various channel participants are likely to react to new product introduction. Furthermore, policymakers interested in understanding competitive reactions to new product introduction should find this research useful.     

On commodity price limits

This paper examines the behavior of futures prices and trader positions around the occurrence of price limits in commodity futures markets. We ask whether limit events are the result of shocks to fundamental volatility or the result of temporary volatility induced by the trading of noncommercial market participants (speculators). We find little evidence that limits events are the result of speculative activity, but instead associated with shocks to fundamentals that lead to persistent price changes. When futures trading halts price discovery migrates to options markets, but option prices provide a biased estimate of subsequent future prices when trading resumes.     

A Micromodel of New Product Adoption with Heterogeneous and Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the Digital Camera Category

We develop an empirical model for the adoption process of a new durable product that accounts for consumer heterogeneity as well as consumers forward-looking behavior. Accounting for heterogeneity is important for two reasons. As the mix of consumers with different preferences and price sensitivities could change over time, firms need to update their marketing strategies. Further, it allows for a variety of shapes for the aggregate adoption process over time. As prices for durable and technology products fall over time with firms continually introducing enhanced products, consumers may anticipate these prices and improvements and delay their purchases in the product category. Forward-looking consumers optimize purchase timing by trading off their utilities from buying the product and their expectations on future prices, quality levels, and brand availability. Such forward-looking behavior will result in price dynamics in the marketplace as price changes today influence future purchases. And it results in different shapes of the new product sales pattern over time by influencing the time to take-off. We show how the parameters of our model can be estimated using aggregate data on the sales, prices, and attributes of brands in a product category. We apply our model to market data from the digital camera category. Our data are consistent with the presence of both heterogeneity and forward looking behavior among consumers. At the product category level, we are able to decompose the effects of the entry of Sony into primary demand expansion and switching from other brands. At the brand level, we find that there exist several segments in the market with different preferences for the brands and different price sensitivities leading to differences in adoption timing and brand choice across segments. For a given brand, we show how the changing customer mix over time has implications for that brands pricing strategies. We characterize how price effects vary across brands and over time and how price changes in a given time period influence sales in subsequent periods. Model comparison and validation results are also provided.     

The Effects of Market Concentration and Horizontal Mergers on Hospital Costs and Prices

Antitrust advocates believe that horizontal consolidation in hospital markets can reduce competition and increase prices while merger advocates believe it can benefit consumers by reducing service duplication. This study analyzed the market conditions, operating characteristics, and costs and prices of approximately 3500 short-term general hospitals (including 112 within-market-area mergers) from 1986 to 1994 to investigate the effects of market concentration, hospital mergers, and managed care penetration. The results show: a shift away from non-price competition toward price competition in health care markets; that this shift was fueled by increased market penetration by price-sensitive buyers; that horizontal hospital mergers produced average cost savings of approximately 5%, which were generally passed on to consumers as lower prices; that cost savings were generally greater for mergers of similar-size hospitals, with a higher degree of duplicative services, and with lower pre-merger occupancy rates; and some evidence that post-merger price reductions were smaller in less-competitive markets.     

Investigating the unobserved heterogeneity in consumers’ sensitivity to the price of gasoline

We empirically examined how gasoline prices impact consumers’ shopping behaviors. Using individual panel data on gasoline transactions, we found that gasoline prices generally have a statistically and economically significant impact. However, our disaggregate analysis indicated that, across consumers, considerable heterogeneity was present in the underlying sensitivity to the price of gasoline and in the income effect, resulting from fluctuating gasoline prices. More interestingly, the significant effect of gasoline prices was largely driven by the consumers with large purchase volume, and consumers with the highest level of gasoline consumption remained almost perfectly insensitive to the price of gasoline. Such heterogeneity is also present in the effect of gasoline prices on grocery expenditures, and notably, consumers with the largest purchase volume were not associated with statistically significant changes in grocery expenditures. Theoretical background suggests that the financial constraints of consumers and primary vehicle use may explain about the differences in responses to gasoline prices. Results based on individual-level data allowed for a comprehensive understanding of how and how much gasoline prices affect consumer behaviors and showed that inelastic gasoline demand and the considerable income effect due to gasoline prices may not best describe the effect of gasoline prices.     

我国农产品市场价格变动背后的生产成本效应--以粮食为例

以粮食为主要研究对象,探讨我国农产品市场价格变化过程中存在的生产成本效应。在具体方法上,将成本因素划分为生产成本、供应成本和机会成本三类,选取有关变量指标,并选择小麦、稻谷和玉米三类代表性的粮食,以1988年~2017年全国数据为样本进行实证检验。结果发现:我国粮食价格上涨背后的成本效应非常显著,农业生产资料价格、劳动力成本、农产品物流成本、劳动力机会成本等是引起我国粮食价格上涨的重要成本因素;此外,粮食区域供应成本是小麦和玉米价格上涨的一个推手,但是对稻谷价格的推动作用却不显著。     

Automatic adjustment clauses and allocative efficiency in public utilities

This paper presents a formal analysis of the efficiency effects of automatic adjustment clauses (AACs) is regulated industries. Using a two-input model of ex ante/ex post input choice and a general putty-clay technology, we analyze the relative extent of allocative distortions due to each of three alternative regulatory policies—periodic rate review with and without an AAC, and an AAC without any rate review—for the case of a regulated firm that chooses an ex post technology to maximize the present value of future profits.Our results indicate that the economic rationale for using AACs in industries already subject to intermittent rate review is not unambiguous, even in the face of severe cost inflation, and is particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand for output and the rate and direction of input price changes. We are forced to conclude that the use of AACs in regulated industries such as electric power, while originally justified on the basis of financial viability, may well carry significant economic costs in the form of allocative inefficiency that may outweigh the benefits.     

Why Have U.S. Prices Become Independent of Business Cycles?

This article analyzes the issue of price cyclicality from a Post Keynesian perspective. It shows that there are two key factors at the center of the mechanism for the sudden U.S. transition from counter‐cyclical to a‐cyclical price movement in the early 1980s. First, the cost pass‐through policy has been changed to ensure that the cyclical changes of input prices and/or labor productivity are absorbed more thoroughly and are thus reflected more frequently in profit markups than occurred prior to 1984. This relatively increased adaptability of the profit markups in the aggregate sense between the pricing periods cushions the direct effect of cyclical changes in the cost base on price cyclicality. Second, a structural change in the U.S. labor productivity's cyclical property has generated cost‐base stability during the post‐1984 period. Declines in hiring and firing costs and cutbacks in social security benefits have led the labor discipline effect to dominate the labor hoarding effect. This has allowed labor productivity to increase as the unemployment rate rises; thus, the cost base cyclicality has weakened, and prices have become less cyclical since 1984.