B 宏观经济专题研究：继续加强和改善投资调控

2006年，全社会固定资产投资109870亿元，同比增长24％，比上年回落2个百分点。剔除价格因素，投资实际增长22．1％，比上年回落约2个百分点。从四个季度看，第一、二、三、四季度投资累计增幅分别为27．7％、29．8％、27．3％和24％，前两个季度投资增长持续加快，后两个季度则持续回落，前后呈现明显不同的特征。     

世纪之交的新疆投资研究

2000年是世纪之交的关键之年,是承上启下的转折之年,是西部大开发奠基之年,又是回顾与展望的交织之年.在这样的时刻,全面深入客观地总结建国五十年来新疆投资经验,研究探讨21世纪的投资战略,对于新疆今后的可持续发展具有深远而重要的意义.     

我国环境保护投资的现状分析与改革探索

解决环境问题需要大规模的资金投入,而资金来源和有效的投融资机制一直都是困扰环境保护的最大难题之一。我国在环保投资方面的现状如何？如何使我国投入环境保护的资金更有效率？这是环境和资本共同关注的热点话题。     

从打造营商环境看政府投资的乘数效应

投资乘数论被西方经济学用来表达投资对总收入的倍增作用。本文借用“乘数”这一概念 ,通过经济分析证明 :政府投资若运用得当 ,也能以有限的投资获得倍加的“引致投资”。在经济日益市场化全球化的今天 ,吸引非政府和外来投资已成了发展经济的主要手段。许多地方的发展经验证明 ,全力打造营商环境吸引他人投资既是一种最有效的发展手段 ,也是一种最到位的改革手段———可从根本上理顺政企关系。而改善营商环境一方面靠深化改革去优化软环境 ,另一方面则靠政府组织投资去建设硬环境。     

固定资产投资要把握好五个关系

“八五”以来,特别是邓小平同志南方重要讲话后,绍兴县经济建设取得了有目共睹的成就。这些成就的取得,与固定资产的大投入密不可分。“八五”五年,全县完成投资项目3658项、总投资115亿元.分别比“七五”期间增长2.5倍和3倍。通过投入,全县经济的整体素质和综     

家庭设备投资：一种被忽略的投资方式

我国的金融市场远不够发达，和西方国家相比，个人不能买卖黄金，外汇，缺乏各种投资代理公司，现在可以买住房，但只限于个人消费，不是投资求利，而且也不能买地产，个人投资只有股票比较易行，千军万马争过独木桥，弄得股票市场起伏不定，风险很大，基本上变成了投机而不是投资，对于大多数家庭，首先考虑的是安全，最后只有银行储蓄一条路可行，到银行存款，且不说利率常变为负的（因为通货膨胀），对于国家也不是最佳选择。因为这样做实际上是把风险转嫁给了银行，市场是波动的，投资建立在对未来的预期上，所以投资是和风险分不开的。银行接受了存款转贷给基建项目，储户存款事实上已变成了机器设备，可是储户随时有权从银行提款，再到市场上买东西，结果是一块钱用了两遍，这样就有可能造成物价的大幅度上升，对整个社会有极大的破坏性，所以国家并不希望把银行变成唯一的投资方式，而是鼓励老百姓自己直接投资。我国金融改革的方向之一就是居民开辟更多的投资渠道，由投资者自己获得利润，同时承担风险。     

强化县级投资管理工作几点想法

目前,国家继续实行宏观适度从紧的政策,企业资金普遍紧缺,如何适应经济增长方式的转变,把投资工作从重视量的增长转到质的提高,已成为一项十分重要的课题。本人结合实际工作,就县级主管部门,如何以提高投入产出率为中心,搞好投资管理工作,试谈几点体会。     

浅谈电信投资的特点

本文通过对电信方面的相关介绍，总结出了当代电信产业的经济特点，并且深入的分析了在电信行业改革的过程中其投资存在的一些风险。     

Openness and Economic Performance: A Comparative Study of China and the Asian NIEs

Being the world's largest developing economy, China's successful economic performance since 1978 has had a powerful impact on the global economy. Its open policy features an evolutionary process, involving the gradual liberalization of foreign exchange, international trade and foreign direct investments. This paper evaluates how this evolutionary process has contributed to China's economic success in comparison with the development experiences of the Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs). It concludes that despite the economic crisis in 1997–98, China and the NIEs represent a successful development model, which is built upon openness and huge investments in physical and human capital.     

Who Influences the Asian–Pacific Real Estate Markets: The US,Japan or China?

As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values, this study examines China's influence on Asian–Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective market integration with the US, Japan and China during the period January 2005 to December 2017. Market integration is examined by unconditional and time‐varying conditional correlations, nonlinear Granger causality and dynamic connectedness effects. Overall, although the US and Japanese real estate markets have significantly influenced return and volatility in the regional markets, China has emerged as another major regional real estate volatility leader with rising influence over volatility integration, especially during the 2007–2011 crisis period. Financial crises have strengthened China's volatility connectedness effects and market integration with other Asian–Pacific real estate markets. Our results imply that the benefits of regional portfolio diversification may be declining as volatility integration across the Chinese and Asian–Pacific real estate markets becomes stronger. Therefore, diversified global investors should pay greater attention to these real estate markets.     

China's outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest?

Because of the potentially large and important effects of the extremely ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched by China in late 2013, considerable attention has been given to the motives for, and repercussions of, the BRI-driven infrastructural projects. Yet, the non-infrastructural outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to BRI countries, which varies quite substantially across different sectors and different countries, has not yet received much attention. In contrast to some recent studies showing that the massive initiative has increased China's total FDI outflows to fellow BRI countries, in this paper, based on our sector-level difference-in-differences models, we find that effect to be statistically insignificant. Yet, at the same time, we provide empirical evidence on the sectoral pattern of China's outward FDI before and after 2014 indicating that China's FDI outflows to BRI countries have significantly increased in sectors characterized by overcapacity and contributing to pollution in China, thereby demonstrating that China's BRI-driven outward FDI has been very selective in terms of sectors. We confirm these findings with a variety of robustness checks and show that it is BRI countries with relatively low institutional quality that have been more likely to receive these types of FDI from China. We thus speculate that Chinese firms have been motivated to place FDI investments in BRI countries for the sake of alleviating China's own overcapacity and pollution problems. Our findings lead us to suggest that, although these sectoral patterns are consistent with the different stages of economic development in which China and its fellow BRI-identified countries find themselves, Chinese investors and host country governments should be more concerned with the potential for unwanted side-effects of the FDI investments so that the mutually beneficial effects of the BRI can be sustained into the indefinite future among all countries involved.     

Dynamic relationship between China's inward and outward foreign direct investments

This paper studies the dynamic relationship of China's inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI). It first identifies the key determinants of China's outward FDI (OFDI) in 172 host countries during 2003–2009 using a partial stock adjustment model. It finds strong evidence of dynamic adjustment in China's OFDI stock with an agglomeration effect. The dynamic adjustment and agglomeration effects are stronger in “high-tech” countries than in “low-tech” ones but indifferent in host country's resource endowments and income levels. The empirical results suggest that there exists a substantial adjustment cost in China's OFDI and that China's existing OFDI stock can gradually adjust toward its long-term equilibrium level, which is not only greater but also more volatile than the actual stock. Of particular interest is that we find a strong and positive relationship between lagged inward FDI (IFDI) and contemporaneous OFDI, implying that capital outflow from China has been partially induced by the countries which have invested in China.     

Biofuels and the policy implications for China

The paper explores China's biofuel policy and compares biofuel development in China and the rest of the world. It is argued that biofuel development depends on financial support, price intervention, and trade barriers, which all call for government support. China's biofuel industry is developing fast but under strict control. China should refer to other countries' experiences and make policy decisions according to national strategies and local conditions.     

China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.     

Exporting National Champions： China＇s Outward Foreign Direct Investment Finance in Comparative Perspective

We examine the extent to which Chinese development banks have financed the globalization of China＇s ＂national champion ＂firms： specifically, through outward foreign direct investment （OFDI）. We create a database of Chinese fnance for OFDI and compare our results to the existing literature and available data on Japan, Korea and other Asian nations. We estimate the total value of China＇s OFDI finance from 2002 to 2012 at US$14Obn. As a percentage of total OFDI, China＇s lending is roughly three times higher than Japan ＇s, the previous global leader in OFDl finance. We identify two major reasons for China＇s high （31 percent） ratio of OFDl lending to total OFDI. First, China has a greater incentive to give OFDI loans than Japan or Korea ever did because its borrowers are statelowned so it can more easily channel funds to targeted areas. Second, China has a greater capacity to give OFDI loans because it has significantly higher savings and foreign exchange reserves than Japan and Korea.     

China＇s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea： A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia's recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China's position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast‐growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China's FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China's output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region‐wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium‐term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region‐wide FTA.     

Retesting the Separability of China＇s Rural Households

This article retests the separability of China’s rural households in light of growing doubt about the sustainability of high economic growth in China.If a household’s production decisions are "separable "from the household’s consumption decisions,generally this suggests there is no surplus labor.Many scholars aver that China’s surplus rural labor has spurred rapid economic growth,but concerns have arisen as to whether China still has surplus labor available.We investigate this issue using rural household panel data from 1993 to 2009.The regression results confirm that households in rural China have progressed from being non-separable to separable.The estimation results for both the entire country and regions reject the separability hypothesis before 2004 but fail to reject the hypothesis after 2004(with the exception of the central region).These results suggest that China ’s surplus labor supply is dwindling,especially in the eastern and the western regions.The sustainability of China’s high economic growth is questionable in the absence of a large reservoir of surplus rural labor.     

Is China's FDI coming at the expense of other countries?

We analyze how China's emergence as a destination for foreign direct investment is affecting the ability of other countries to attract FDI, using an approach that accounts for the endogeneity of China's FDI. Results suggest that China's rapid growth and attractions as a destination for FDI also encourages FDI flows to other Asian countries, as if producers in these economies belong to a common supply chain. There is also evidence of FDI diversion from OECD recipients. We interpret this in terms of FDI motivated by the desire to produce close to the market where the final sale takes place. Firms more inclined to invest in China for this reason are correspondingly less inclined to invest in the OECD. A detailed analysis of Japanese foreign direct investment outflows disaggregated by sector further supports these conclusions. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (2) (2007) 153–172.