Risk analysis of water scarcity in artificial woodlands of semi-arid and arid China

All activities are inherently risky, including seemingly beneficial activities such as ecological restoration. However, small risks are easy to ignore, even if they may accumulate to create a large cumulative risk. Therefore, the long-term ecological benefits and risks of any ecological restoration project must both be considered. However, quantitative evaluation of the risk of afforestation in arid and semi-arid regions has been insufficiently studied. Here, we present a method for evaluating the risk associated with ecological restoration, using water shortages in artificial woodlands in China’s arid and semi-arid regions as an example of cumulative risk. We found an annual risk that amounted to 5174 RMB ha⁻¹ in 2014, which was 17% of the ecological service value of the forests. However, this cost depends on changes in the price, availability, and use of water in these regions. If ecological degradation occurs, it will trigger a series of serious consequences, and its cost may far exceed the expected benefits. Our inability to predict natural disasters such as drought and the problem of imperfect communication among stakeholders must be considered to achieve ecological restoration. The method described in this paper will provide theoretical support for future risk evaluations and guidance for the allocation of natural resources such as water, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful environmental management.     

Managing tropical wetlands for advancing global rice production: Implications for land-use management

Being fertile lands, wetlands have been managed for traditional agriculture over millennia. However, the integrity and ecosystem services of wetlands are being jeopardized by intensive land-use comprising of drainage and excessive disturbance. An adhoc and intensive use of wetlands, without preserving ecological integrity is causing ecosystem disservices and threatening conversion of a large soil organic carbon (SOC) sink into a net source. Wetlands in the tropical parts of the world are distributed unevenly and represent ∼3% of the total world land area. Due to stagnancy and even reduction in rice (Oryza sativa) yield of many agricultural regions, there is a need for additional and alternative land-uses which can raise the global rice production to ∼1 billion Mg (megagram = 10⁶g = metric ton) by 2050 from ∼497 million Mg now. Wetlands can be a viable option to advance global food security because of high soil fertility and vast geographical distribution. A ‘3-tier rice production system’ is proposed herein based on specific hydrological niche to advance global food security without degrading the ecosystem services of wetlands. In addition to increasing agronomic yield, the proposed modus operandi can also improve the livelihood security of farmers through an additional income streams by: (i) trading of SOC credits generated through adoption of conservation agriculture in littoral zones, and (ii) promoting fish and duckery culture in conjunction with deepwater rice farming. Furthermore, the proposed strategies will also set in motion the process of restoration of wetlands while enhancing C sink capacity of the ecosystems.     

Forest fragmentation reduced carbon storage in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh: Implications for policy development

Forest fragmentation is continued to be widespread in the tropics resulting in reduced ecosystem services including carbon storage. However, the effect of forest fragmentation is not considered in the current carbon policy. We investigated the effect of forest fragmentation on tree biomass carbon and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh. Above and below-ground tree biomass carbon were calculated by using widely accepted allometric equations and SOC was measured by sampling soils up to 10 cm depth and analyzing them in a soil laboratory. Results showed that carbon storage in tree biomass was significantly lower in fragmented forests (16.3 ± 1.37 t C ha⁻¹) than in contiguous forests (31.21 ± 2.75 t C ha⁻¹) (p < 0.001). Likewise, a significantly lower SOC was contained in the soils of fragmented forests (17.26 ± 0.83 t C ha⁻¹) than in contiguous forests (21.62 ± 0.78 t C ha⁻¹) (p < 0.001). Thus a total of 36% less carbon retained in tree biomass and soils in fragmented forests than in contiguous forests. Backward multiple linear regression analysis revealed tree density, tree height, tree DBH, height-diameter ratio (H/D) and tree species richness as influential factors of carbon variation in fragmented forests. All these structural parameters except tree species richness were significantly lower in fragmented forests, were positively associated with carbon storage and explained together 69% of the carbon storage variation. These findings suggest that the altered stand structure and tree allometry likely caused reduced carbon storage in fragmented forests and highlight the importance of landscape scale management intervention in the tropics. Here, we provided with the evidence of strong negative impact of forest fragmentation on carbon storage and argue that this effect should be in consideration which is currently overlooked in existing carbon accounting systems for tropical forests.     

Carbon storage in a bamboo (Bambusa vulgaris) plantation in the degraded tropical forests: Implications for policy development

Tropical forests potentially contribute to global climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, hence a global carbon pool. In order to mitigate the global climate change impact, the Kyoto protocol developed the clean development mechanism (CDM) which supports carbon credits for plantation activities in developing countries. Unfortunately, none of the CDM forestry projects included bamboo as a carbon reservoir. Although bamboo is an integrating part of tropical forest ecosystems, it was overlooked in the initial negotiating process. The present study, therefore, investigated the carbon storage potential of a common bamboo species, Bambusa vulgaris at Lawachara forest reserve of Bangladesh. Results showed that five-year-old B. vulgaris stand stored in total 77.67 t C ha⁻¹ of which 50.44 t C ha⁻¹ were stored in the above ground biomass (culms, branches and leaves), 2.52 t C ha⁻¹ in the below ground biomass and 24.71 t C ha⁻¹ in the soils. This amount of carbon storage is much more promising than the carbon storage of many other tree species considered in the CDM projects. These findings demonstrate the potential of B. vulgaris to be considered in CDM projects as a plantation species and thereby mitigate climate change impact more efficiently.     

Assessing the efficiency of switchgrass different cultural practices for pellet production

Switchgrass is a perennial crop producing high amounts of biomass for good quality pellet production. The objective of this study is to examine the efficiency of different cultural practices of switchgrass for pellet production under field conditions for four different N-fertilization (0, 80, 160 and 240 kg ha⁻¹) and two different irrigation levels (0 and 250 mm), in two soils in central Greece with rather different moisture status over the period 2009–2012. Moreover, comparison between three harvest methods (two different types of bales and silage) was made. The results derived from this study revealed that the bale at 22 kg is the harvesting practice with the highest costs while there was reduction of efficiency scores when nitrogen levels increased. At both environments the efficiency scores followed the same trend, confirming that low levels of nitrogen fertilization enhance the economic competitiveness of switchgrass production. Palamas site is the area where switchgrass for pellet production had positive income ranging from 400 to 1600 € ha⁻¹, while Velestino site had always negative. Therefore, places like Velestino with non-aquic soil should be avoided for switchgrass. These data suggest that growing switchgrass for solid biofuel production as energy crop is a worthwhile decision only in areas with a moderately shallow groundwater table (aquic soil) or maybe in high precipitation regions.     

Local ecological knowledge reveals effects of policy-driven land use and cover change on beekeepers in Costa Rica

Land use and cover (LUC) change is a major driver of ecosystem service loss worldwide. In response, policymakers have designed conservation strategies that incentivize the establishment and maintenance of LUC types associated with higher ecosystem service provision. Many of these policies also aim to promote social and economic goals such as reducing poverty. Attempts to measure the impact of policy-driven LUC change on stakeholders typically focus only on economic outcomes for landowning participants or aggregate the socio-economic outcomes of diverse groups. In this study, we applied local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by beekeepers in Costa Rica to understand the impact of policy-driven LUC change on this specific group of often non-landowning stakeholders. Beekeeping is a globally important rural livelihood and provides pollination services to crops and wild plants. We synthesized beekeeper LEK using a mixed-methods approach including apiary mapping exercises (n = 215 apiaries), questionnaires (n = 50 participants), and follow-up interviews (n = 21 participants). Our study revealed that some policy-driven LUC changes have limited beekeepers’ access to preferred land uses, such as secondary and mature forests with native trees. Participants reported concern for their livelihoods due to policy-driven spatial and temporal change of floral resources via the establishment of tree plantations, changes in pasture management, and laws that prohibit beekeeping in national parks and reserves. Our study provides evidence of unintended outcomes from land use policies, including Payment for Ecosystem Services, with disproportionate negative impacts on non-landowning residents who depend on natural resources in the landscape for their livelihoods. Our study illustrates potential inequality rising from current incentive mechanisms associated with Payments for Ecosystem Services and other conservation policies and calls for policymakers to consider LUC change impacts on non-landowning stakeholders.     

Analysing foregone costs of communities and carbon benefits in small scale community based forestry practice in Nepal

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, conservation and sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon (REDD+) are considered to be important cost effective approaches for global climate change mitigation; therefore, such practices are evolving as the REDD+ payment mechanism in developing countries. Using six years (2006–2012) data, this paper analyses trade-offs between carbon stock gains and the costs incurred by communities in generating additional carbon in 105 REDD+ pilot community forests in Nepal. It estimates foregone benefits for communities engaged in increasing carbon stocks in various dominant vegetation types. At recent carbon and commodity prices, communities receive on average US$ 0.47/ha/year of carbon benefits with the additional cost of US$ 67.30/ha/year. One dollar’s worth of community cost resulted 0.23 Mg of carbon sequestration. Therefore, carbon payment alone may not be an attractive incentive within small-scale community forestry and should link with payments for ecosystem services. Moreover, the study found highest community sacrificed benefits in Shorea mixed broadleaf forests and lowest in Schima-Castanopsis forests, while carbon benefits were highest in Pine forests followed by Schima-Castanopsis forests and lowest in Rhododendron-Quercus forests. This indicates that costs and benefits may vary by vegetation type. A policy should consider payment for other environmental services, carbon gains, co-benefits and trade off while designing the REDD+ mechanism in community based forest land use practice with equitable community outcomes. The learning from this study will help in the formulation of an appropriate REDD+ policy for community forestry.     

Landowner net benefit from Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) afforestation of dry-land cereal fields in Valladolid,Spain

This analysis measures the net benefit that a landowner could obtain from changing current dry-land cereal fields into Stone pine plantations in Portillo and Viana (Valladolid, Spain). We apply cost–benefit analysis techniques to estimate the present value of Stone pine afforestation net benefit by considering an infinite series of forestry rotations. We simulate three Stone pine silviculture models at each of the two sites. In addition, we estimate landowner extended net benefits from Stone pine afforestation when we consider a hypothetical payment for the carbon sequestration service. Results show that, when government subsidies are included, Stone pine afforestation only offers positive landowner net benefit in Portillo when both medium and high-stocking silviculture models are applied. Taking into account carbon prices up to €45 tC^?1 (€12.3 tCO₂^?1), Stone pine afforestation gives landowner positive extended net benefits for the three silviculture models simulated at the Portillo and Viana sites.     

Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

山地森林采伐后生态服务功能恢复动态

通过对闽北山地天然次生林择伐试验样地15 a的跟踪调查,采用实物量和价值量相结合的评价方法,从涵养水源、保育土壤、固碳释氧3方面分析不同强度择伐后森林生态服务功能恢复动态。结果表明:相对于未采伐林地,伐后10 a,弱度和中度择伐其生态服务功能得到恢复并略有改善,强度和极强度生态服务功能尚未恢复;伐后15 a,4种强度的生态服务价值均得以恢复。从采伐对生态服务价值的影响看,影响程度最大、最难恢复的是保育土壤,其次是涵养水源。因此,对天然次生林的可持续经营,在确定择伐强度和择伐周期时,应考虑林分生态功能的修复过程。     

An interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM): Endogenizing human-environment interactions in the Western Missisquoi Watershed

Forest Transition Theory (FTT) suggests that reforestation may follow deforestation as a result of and interplay between changing social, economic and ecological conditions. We develop a simplistic but empirically data driven land use transition agent-based modeling platform, interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM), that is able to reproduce the observed land use patterns and link the forest transition to parcel-level heuristic-based land use decisions and ecosystem service (ES). The ILUTABM endogenously links landowners’ land use decisions with ecosystem services (ES) provided by the lands by treating both lands and landowners as interacting agents. The ILUTABM simulates both the land use changes resulting from farmers’ decision behaviors as well as the recursive effects of changing land uses on farmers’ decision behaviors. The ILUTABM is calibrated and validated at 30 m × 30 m spatial resolution using National Land Cover Data (NLCD) 1992, 2001 and 2006 across the western Missisquoi watershed, which is located in the north-eastern US with an estimated area of 283 square kilometers and 312 farmers farming on 16% of the total Missisquoi watershed area. This study hypothesizes that farmers’ land use decisions are made primarily based on their summed expected utilities and that impacts of exogenous socio-economic factors, such as natural disasters, public policies and institutional/social reforms, on farmers’ expected utilities can significantly influence the land use transitions between agricultural and forested lands. Monte Carlo experiments under six various socio-economic conditions combined with different ES valuation schemes are used to assess the sensitivities of the ILUTABM. Goodness-of-fit measures confirm that the ILUTABM is able to reproduce 62% of the observed land use transitions. However, the spatial patterns of the observed land used transitions are more clustered than the simulated counterparts. We find that, when farmers value food provisioning Ecosystem Services (ES) more than other ES (e.g., soil and water regulation), deforestation is observed. However, when farmers value less food provisioning than other ES or they value food provisioning and other ES equally, the forest transition is observed. The ILUTABM advances the Forest Transition Theory (FTT) framework by endogenizing the interactions of socio-ecological feedbacks and socio-economic factors in a generalizable model that can be calibrated with empirical data.     

Abandonment or survival? Understanding the future of Castanea sativa stands in function of local attitude (Northern Apennine,Italy)

In a chestnut belt in the northern Apennines (Italy), we interviewed current (n = 52) and potential growers from a younger generation (n = 57), to assess what factors are likely to drive their willingness to continue chestnut culture. In 35 cases, local appraisals of chestnut stand disturbances were also contrasted with expert assessments. More than half of current growers were confident about the future of chestnut cultivation. This proportion decreased with grower’s age and experienced issues, while slightly increased in presence of multifunctional management and support from family members. Although most growers resulted highly capable of diagnosing problems, expert advice significantly contributed to driving positive perceptions. About half of the younger interviewees also expressed interest in growing chestnut. This proportion was higher for respondents who are exposed to chestnut culture within the family, and who value cultural services above other ecosystem services (ES) of forests. Overall, passion for the activity and attachment to local heritage were the most influential motivation for both categories of respondents. We outline policy actions that may encourage the continuation of chestnut management and, more generally, conservation of cultural landscapes in mountain areas. Possible measures include financial incentives (e.g., payments for ES), tighter integration of traditional and expert knowledge in the production chain, and public recognition of the value of local heritage in land management. Broader support to maintaining services and infrastructure in rural areas, however, will also be a pre-condition.     

基于生态系统服务的闽江流域生态补偿阈值研究

研究目的：流域是自然地理和经济发展的复合型区域,科学划分补偿载体与合理补偿阈值可为流域生态补偿与生态保护修复提供科学依据。研究方法：InVEST 模型,市场价值法,影子工程法,生态补偿优先级与补偿阈值测算模型。研究结果：（1）2000—2015年闽江流域拥有较高的生态系统服务,总体上生态系统服务上游＞中游＞下游,且自生态补偿实施以来总体呈增长趋势,水源供给服务最为明显;（2）2015年生态系统服务价值为2 788.27亿元,其中水源供给服务价值占比达61.91%,水质净化服务价值仅占0.16%,按生境质量调整后生态系统服务价值为2 827.05亿元;（3）根据生态与社会经济状况确定浦城县、武夷山市、光泽县、松溪县、建阳市、顺昌县、建瓯市、政和县、连城县、宁化县、清流县、建宁县、明溪县、泰宁县、将乐县为受偿区,其他区域为补偿支付区;（4）依据区域生态系统服务价值与损失的机会成本,确定受偿区2015年补偿阈值介于8.48亿～105.56亿元之间。研究结论：闽江流域作为中国东南沿海的重点生态功能区,上游对生态补偿迫切程度整体较下游区域更强烈,探索有差异且合理的生态补偿阈值有助于实现区域经济—社会—生态协同发展。     

A probabilistic approach for the socioeconomic assessment of urban river rehabilitation projects

Urban river rehabilitation aims to enhance the ecological status of urban watercourses and promote measures for the local population to increase their well-being by making a direct or indirect use of the services these ecosystems may provide. The social and economic feasibility is evaluated by contrasting the resources used in the rehabilitation process with the benefits derived from it through the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). By means of a case study, this work not only introduces the most innovative CBA approaches in environmental projects, but also implements probabilistic simulation methods in order to increase the robustness of the assessment indicators.The case study encompasses two projects, whose global costs total €46 M in 50 years, for the environmental rehabilitation of the stretch of the River Segura that flows through the city of Murcia. The benefits have been obtained by a contingent valuation exercise: €3.3 M/year (€0.6 M/year of use benefits, and €2.7 M/year of non-use benefits). Three different CBA approaches (economic, extended and dual) are applied to contrast these costs and benefits, conducting the analyses of uncertainty and sensitivity of the benefit items through a Monte Carlo simulation. The results highlight the importance of environmental benefits for this kind of projects to be socioeconomically feasible thanks to the profitability indicators they provide.     

A novel approach for assessing the contribution of agricultural systems to the sustainable development of regions with multi-scale indicators: Application to Guadeloupe

The assessment of agriculture at a regional scale is necessary to better guide regional agricultural planning. To improve the contribution of agriculture to sustainable regional development, assessments must take account of the locations and diversity of cropping systems. We have therefore developed a method based on a set of multi-scale indicators to assess the contribution of agriculture to the sustainable development of regions, and its evolution over time. This method can identify: i) sustainability issues, ii) relevant indicators that will provide information on impacts at the field scale, iii) a method to aggregate indicators, iv) data on cropping systems, and v) a database containing spatial units to analyse the whole region. Application of this method to Guadeloupe (2004–2010) enabled the definition of ten issues and 16 indicators, with three procedures to aggregate information from 36 cropping systems allocated to 11,908 fields between 2004 and 2010. Economic, social and environmental sustainability was poor in 2004, with high dependency on subsidies (47.3 M€ yr⁻¹), low agricultural added value (48.5 M€ yr⁻¹), low employment (only 1799 workers), significant risks of crop contamination and pressure on water quality. The total value of subsidies and the risks of river pollution tended to decrease between 2004 and 2010 because of a reduction in intensive banana cropping systems. In parallel, we were able to see that sugar cane, the most widespread crop in Guadeloupe, made only a small contribution to employment and food self-sufficiency during the studied period. The spatial representation revealed that improvements have been seen in southern Guadeloupe due to reductions in banana cultivation. This method was therefore helpful in identifying the most critical agricultural development issues and helping to highlight areas where relevant agricultural land use policies could be formulated.     

Understanding the influence of farmer motivations on changes to soil erosion risk on sites of former serious erosion in the South Downs National Park,UK

Serious soil erosion occurred in the South Downs National Park, southern England in the years 1982–2006 and details of around 400 sites are contained in a database. In 2010 we revisited 85 of the most serious sites where erosion of >10 m³ ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ had been recorded in order to assess land use change and any conservation measures undertaken. At 79% of the sites land use change had resulted in a reduction in the risk of erosion, most notably at 28 sites with a shift to permanent grass from winter cereals. At only 21% of sites was the risk of erosion unchanged. Twenty two farmers responsible for 66 of the sites were interviewed. Land management practices had changed on all of the fields of interest to this study since the time of the serious erosion events, to those which have the potential to lower soil erosion risk. Sixteen interviewees claimed that erosion was a motivating reason for changing their practices, due to either experiencing on or on- and off-farm impacts firsthand (12), having knowledge or suspicion of serious erosion having occurred on their land prior to their management (three), or having no knowledge of any serious erosion on their land but just wanting to reduce overall erosion risk (one). Amongst the main changes reported are changes of land use from winter cereals to grass or to overwinter stubble which have undoubtedly reduced the risk of erosion. However, some changed practices claimed by farmers, such as along-the-contour-working, earlier sowing and the use of rollers may be of little value. Furthermore, deeper analysis of farmers’ motivations regarding changes in land management practices suggests a complex picture in which a range of socio-economic influences come into play over time including financial incentives offered by agri-environmental schemes which were found to be an important driver of change. Future changes in farming economics may therefore undermine the reduction in erosion risk in the longer term.     

Assessing costs and benefits of pest management on forested landbases in eastern and western Canada

To assist pest management planning, the Canadian Forest Service developed the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS), which quantifies the timber supply impacts of protecting stands against spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation. We incorporated protection costs and timber product values in this system to evaluate economic aspects of spruce budworm control. The analysis allows pest managers to evaluate the degree to which the traditional volume protection priority objective corresponds to three economic criteria, namely the volume protected per dollar protection program cost, the benefit–cost ratio of the protection program, and the net present value of the protection program. Twelve alternative spruce budworm protection strategies were analyzed on Crown License 1 in New Brunswick and Prince Albert Forest Management Area (PAFMA) in Saskatchewan, based on a number of protection program extents and intensities. For both landbases under base-case market conditions, the largest, most intensive protection scenario provided the highest amount of volume saved and net present value (at 3.94 Mm³ and $39.98 M for PAFMA, and 4.04 Mm³ and $41.49 M for License 1, respectively) while smaller, less-intensive programs provided the highest benefit–cost ratios and volume protected per present value dollar of protection cost (at 8.22 and 0.52 m³/$ for PAFMA, and 10.26 and 0.65 m³/$ for License 1, respectively). Sensitivity analysis on product values and protection costs revealed that smaller, less-intensive programs could also produce the highest net present values when costs are higher and/or product values lower. These results highlight the conditions under which pest managers should consider deviating from their traditional strategy of maximizing volume saved to one that maximizes the economic returns of protection.     

Deforestation analysis in protected areas and scenario simulation for structural corridors in the agricultural frontier of Western Bahia,Brazil

The aim in this paper was to evaluate the spatial distribution of protected areas defined by law and their importance as structural corridors. The study area was 7,559,783.69 ha located in Western Bahia (Northeast Brazil), restricted to the limits of the Urucuia Group (Upper Cretaceous), where there is strong agribusiness growth. Currently, a major dilemma in Brazilian public policy arises from the conflicting interests of environmental conservation and increased food production. Brazilian environmental protection policies include the implantation of Protected Areas (Full Protection Units and Sustainable Use Units) and the adoption of the National Forest Act (Permanent Preservation Areas and Legal Reserves). In this context, we delimited illegal land-use in Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) adopting the intersection between land-use/land-cover data from PRISM/ALOS image classification for the years 2007–2010 and PPA vectors. We performed the temporal analysis in PAs considering land-use/land-cover data from Landsat TM image classification for the years 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2011. Finally, we performed a Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate whether PPAs alone are sufficient as structural corridors. Hypothetical scenarios were simulated to increase the potential of PPAs as structural corridors. The calculation of MSPA attributes was conducted considering 3 edge widths: 15 m (1 pixel), 510 m (34 pixels), and 1005 m (67 pixels). Four scenarios were simulated, considering a gradual increase in preserved areas. The results show that illegal land use is contained within PPA and protected areas. The scenario simulations present alternatives to increase the connectivity of the fragments and ensure the maintenance of ecological and hydrological services. Rapid agricultural expansion without proper landscape planning can compromise the sustainability of ecosystem services and the recharge zone of the Urucuia aquifer.     

Reconciling rural development and ecological restoration: Strategies and policy recommendations for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Increased demand for both agricultural production and forest restoration may lead to increased competition for land in the next decades. Sustainably increasing cattle ranching productivity is a potential solution to reconcile different land uses, while also improving biodiversity conservation and the provision of ecosystem services. If not strategically implemented in integration with complementary policies, sustainable intensification can however result in negative environmental, economic and social effects. We analyzed the potential for sustainable intensification as a solution for a conflict between agricultural expansion and forest restoration in the Paraitinga Watershed at the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. In addition, we provide policy recommendations for sustainable development in the region, based on interviews with producers and local actors. We found that the Paraitinga Watershed has the potential to increase its cattle-ranching productivity and, as a result, relinquish spared land for other uses. This was true even in the most conservative intensification scenario considered (50% of the maximum potential productivity reached), in which 76,702 ha of pastures can be spared for other uses (46% of total pasture area). We found that restoration, apiculture and rural tourism are promising activities to promote sustainable development in the region, thus potentially increasing food production and mitigating competition for land. Our study shows that results from socioeconomic interviews and biophysical modelling of potential productivity increases offer robust insights into practical solutions on how to pursue sustainable development in one of the world’s most threatened biodiversity hotspots.     

The retention ability of the agricultural landscape in the emergency planning zone of the Temelín nuclear power plant and its changes since the 19th century

Drainage and loss of wetland sites is a major problem of the agricultural landscape, as it reduces the landscape’s ability to retain water, nutrients, matter, and minimize erosion. With this in mind, the issue of the ability of wet sites to retain radionuclides and contaminated water in the case of a radiation accident was studied. In 2013, field research examined the occurrence of wetland retention sites in the emergency planning zone (EPZ) of the Temelín nuclear power plant (NPP; Czech Republic). As data sources, wetland biotopes (European network Natura 2000) were considered; in addition, retention features were field mapped, i.e. landscape elements of a wetland nature not normally considered nationally significant for conservation. Within the emergency zone, 2854.7 ha of wetland biotopes were registered and 318.9 ha retention features mapped. Density of retention sites (in ha/km²) per cadastre (local administrative units) was used to represent their spatial distribution within the zone. For an assessment of possible revitalization measures, leading to an increase in the landscape’s retention ability, spatial changes in the area of retention sites between 2013 and the mid-19th century, a period before extensive drainage of landscape occurred and a simplification of its structure, were mapped. Historic land maps (The Imperial Obligatory Imprints of the Stable Cadastre) were used as a basis of information on the occurrence and area of fens and wet meadows (4771.5 ha).For spatial comparisons of drained and undrained landscape in the past and present, the density of retention sites per cadastre was calculated. In the mid-19th century, 80% of cadastres had a density of retention sites exceeded 5 ha/km²; in 2013 only 40% of cadastres achieved this. In the most part, drained areas of the zone belong to the central part (around the power plant), as well as the EPZ’s eastern and south-eastern regions. From the density maps of retention sites, as well as from the stable cadastre imprints, it is possible to identify areas and retention features suitable for wetland restoration, thus leading to an increase in the retention capacity of the landscape in terms of water and radionuclide retention. Suggestions as to how to restore and turn retention features into semi-natural wetlands, as well as integrating small wetlands into an agriculture landscape are outlined.