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1.
Costa del Sol is a mature Mediterranean destination in the South of Spain with a degree of seasonality that has shown little variation during the last 20 years. In this paper, we apply the decomposition of the Gini index of seasonal concentration by nationalities. The main outcome of this decomposition is the estimation of relative contributions to the overall seasonal concentration and marginal effects by nationalities. These measures can be of great help in the design of counter-seasonal policies. Our results suggest that planners interested in reducing seasonality may concentrate their efforts in consolidating markets with negative marginal effect over the index of concentration, like the British and Nordic ones. In addition, marketing targets may be focused primarily in the winter season for the markets with positive relative marginal effect.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

As the number of disasters and crises affecting the tourism industry increases, it is becoming necessary to understand the nature of these disasters and how to manage and limit the impacts of such incidents. This paper defines crises and disasters before discussing the area of crisis communication management and crisis communication in the tourism industry. The paper then applies the foot and mouth disease (FMD) which occurred in the United Kingdom to crisis communication theory at a national level (by examining the response of the British Tourist Authority) and at a local level (by examining the response of a District Council). The response was limited in part because of a lack of preparedness, but also due to the nature of the foot and mouth outbreak, and the speed and severity of international media coverage. Action was taken in the emergency phase of the crisis and was reactive involving inconsistency in developing key messages to stakeholders, partly due to confusion and a lack of information at the national level. Recovery marketing was also limited due to the length of time of the disease outbreak. This paper provides lessons for destinations and organisations are discussed which may help develop crisis communication strategies for tourism organisations.  相似文献   

3.
    
This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.  相似文献   

4.
    
This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand under the rationale that tourism cycles are heavily influenced by lagged effects of the overall business cycle. Using quarterly data on overnight stays in Italian hotels, both domestic and inbound between 1985 and 2004, we adopt a structural time series approach to evaluate two alternative models, the first with a latent cycle component (LCC) and the second based on specific economic explanatory variables (XCV). The two models are compared in terms of explanatory power, best-fit, residual diagnostics and forecasting ability. The results show similar performances. The policy implication is that the XCV model can be used for calibrating countercyclical interventions in tourism policy.  相似文献   

5.
    
This study assesses the impacts of projected climate change on Australia's tourism industry. Based on application of the Tourism Climatic Index, it investigates potential changes in climatic attractiveness for Australia's major destinations, and discusses implications for tourist flows and tourism planning, development and management. Australia may see considerable changes in spatial and temporal patterns of climatic suitability for tourism, with a southward shift in the most desirable conditions and a decline in the climatic attractiveness of northern locations. For destinations in which conditions are projected to decline, increased investment in indoor amenities may become increasingly necessary; where conditions are projected to improve, the provision of adequate infrastructure to accommodate potential increases in visitation and implementation of mechanisms to minimise the impacts of excess use may be more important. Adoption of a pro-active rather than reactive stance to climate change will maximise the ability of tourism stakeholders to successfully adapt.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

The UK meetings industry has grown dramatically over the last ten years. Interest in the industry and competition is increasing and the move towards using venues other than hotels for meetings is growing. The pattern of growth experienced by the industry brings with it the question whether the quality of provision is becoming increasingly important to customers when differentiating between venues.

The research forms part of a larger study, which proposes to establish whether gaps exist between conference organizers' and conference delegates' needs when selecting and assessing the quality of a conference venue. This paper presents the findings of a quantitative study of 547 conference delegates. Conference delegates' perceptions of service quality attributes were compared and contrasted by importance of attributes and attribute subsets. The results provide a unique perspective and will be extremely valuable to venue managers.  相似文献   

7.
    
This paper shows that changes in timing and magnitude of seasonality in tourist flows can be measured by decomposing the change in the Gini index, a widely used index of seasonal concentration, into two components. One of them tracks the change in the pattern of seasonal fluctuations and the second captures the change in their magnitude. To assess whether changes in the seasonal pattern and magnitude are significant, a technique for testing hypotheses concerning the two components is developed. We examine changes in the seasonal concentration of tourist arrivals in six tourist destinations in the Veneto Region, one of the most tourism-oriented regions in Europe, from 2006 to 2016. The magnitude of seasonality significantly decreased in some destinations with a diversified tourism product, such as Euganean Spas and Lake Garda. The seasonal pattern remained substantially stable for all destinations except Venice, where a non-negligible shift in the seasonal pattern occurred.  相似文献   

8.
This paper contributes to filling two gaps: i) the presence of a limited amount of studies focused on tourism demand turning points, ii) the prevalent recourse to linear models in demand analysis, disregarding the complex structure of tourism destinations. The paper uses the Horizontal Visibility Graph Algorithm, a technique able to transform a time series of observations into a network whose topology preserves some fundamental characteristics of the system examined. The empirical work focuses on Livigno, an Italian alpine destination.Findings reveal four turning points in the last 50 years; these changes are built around shifts in the origin market segments. The network's degree distribution confirms the complex structure of the destination and reconfirms the importance of non-linear models and methods for the analysis of tourism demand.  相似文献   

9.
    
Previous studies have shown that online data, such as search engine queries, is a new source of data that can be used to forecast tourism demand. In this study, we propose a forecasting framework that uses machine learning and internet search indexes to forecast tourist arrivals for popular destinations in China and compared its forecasting performance to the search results generated by Google and Baidu, respectively. This study verifies the Granger causality and co-integration relationship between internet search index and tourist arrivals of Beijing. Our experimental results suggest that compared with benchmark models, the proposed kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) models, which integrate tourist volume series with Baidu Index and Google Index, can improve the forecasting performance significantly in terms of both forecasting accuracy and robustness analysis.  相似文献   

10.
    
This study examines the role of tourism development in reducing regional income inequality in China. First, the theoretical foundation for how tourism affects regional income inequality is discussed. Second, based on the conditional convergence framework, this study proposes a spatiotemporal autoregressive model to capture spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatial heterogeneity. Tourism development is introduced as a conditional convergence factor in an attempt to examine whether the convergence speed is accelerated by regional tourism development. Third, the effects of international and domestic tourism in narrowing regional inequality are compared both globally and locally. The empirical results indicate that tourism development contributes significantly to the reduction of regional inequality, with domestic tourism making a greater contribution than international tourism.  相似文献   

11.
    
Abstract

Little empirical research has been conducted about international partnerships between travel and tourism organisations, airlines and their intermediaries such as wholesalers and travel agents. Nevertheless, these partnerships are important because tourism is becoming more international and most destinations have to compete at a global level. Moreover, both producers and intermediaries are increasingly using information technology to increase their knowledge and relationship with customers. Thus this research set out to develop and empirically confirm a systemic model of these partnerships and four related research objectives. The methodology involved multiple case studies based on in-depth interviews with key players in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Germany. The first outcome is a confirmation of the systemic model. In addition, the findings show the reasons for engaging in partnerships and the scope for further partnerships among the industry players. As well, the findings show that while ‘disintermediation’ may occur because of the advancement of communication technology, the linkages between travel and tourism organisations, airlines and intermediaries are still significant. Our framework can assist public and private travel and tourism organisations to mutually develop and manage marketing strategies and tactics for overseas markets.  相似文献   

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