Does demographic change affect land use patterns?: A case study from Germany

Recent demographic change, mainly characterised by a decreasing and ageing population, is seen as one of the main factors for future land use development in Europe. However, there is still insufficient evidence about the relationship between demographic changes and land use changes since quantitative studies dealing with these interactions are still rare. We aim to fill that gap by presenting the first comprehensive study that investigates statistical relationships and spatial differentiations between demographic and land use change for the whole of Germany. Our study is based on data for the period from 1995/1996 to 2003/2004. The results clearly show that in most growing regions in the West of Germany a correlation was found between land use, natural population growth and net-migration, whereas for land use change in the shrinking regions in the East of Germany economic variables are of noticeable importance. A cluster analysis reveals “gaining” and “shrinking” regions concerning both urbanisation and demographic change. Neither a decreasing nor an ageing population imply reduced land consumption for housing and transportation. Furthermore we found a decreasing settlement population density for almost all German districts regardless of population growth or shrinkage.     

Voters’ Acceptance of Land Use Policy Measures: A Two-Level Analysis

Sustainable spatial planning has become increasingly important during the last decades. Politics tries to counter land use related challenges such as urban sprawl by the implementation of policy measures. In a direct democracy, the implementation of policy measures requires citizens’ acceptance. This paper examines determinants of voters’ policy measure acceptance in the area of spatial planning. The study analyses 18 popular votes on spatial planning measures between 1984 and 2008 in Switzerland. A Bayesian multilevel modelling method is used to estimate both determinants at the individual level as well as the contextual level. Results show that the main individual factor for voters in Switzerland to accept spatial planning measures in a broad sense are the party affiliations of voters. Another important factor for the voting decision is being a homeowner. In contrast, whether voters live in urban or rural areas does not influence such voting decisions. At the contextual level, policy measures which contain incentive and market-based instruments have a higher probability to be accepted than bans and rules. Moreover, the degree of organisational capacity and conflict capability of interests concerned seem to influence democratic acceptance of spatial planning measures.     

Urbanization strategies, rural development and land use changes in China: A multiple-level integrated assessment

This paper links urbanization strategies to changes in land use and associated impacts on rural communities and agro-ecosystems in a rural area of China. Energy, monetary and human time variables as well as information on environmental pressures, have been combined to compare different typologies of households and the metabolism of different patterns of land use from an integrated perspective. The results show that urbanization strategies, aimed at shifting the current land use and at displacing the local population, while increasing the economic efficiency is also associated with an increase in fossil energy consumption and environmental pressure, as well as a reduction of the multifunctional characteristic of the area under investigation. Based on these findings the paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy arguing that the multifunctionality of rural areas should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as a viable strategy to achieve rural development targets.     

基于GIS的达州市土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

随着地理信息系统的发展,其成果广泛应用于土地利用监管、生态环境监测以及农业等各个方面。依据达州市2013年和2020年土地利用情况的矢量数据,通过土地利用动态度和主成分分析的方法,对达州市土地利用变化状况及其驱动因素进行分析。结果显示:达州市未利用土地占比大,建设用地持续增长;而驱动因素主要有社会经济发展、人口增长和政策。     

喀斯特地区土地利用变化与可持续利用研究——以贵州省贵阳市为例

以贵阳市为研究区域,在分析土地利用变化的基础上,从资源保护性、生态合理性、经济可行性、社会接受性等方面构建土地可持续利用指标体系.通过土地可持续利用综合评价模型和土地可持续利用障碍因素诊断模型,评价贵阳市土地可持续利用水平,分析其土地可持续利用的障碍因素,并提出相应的对策.     

Uncertainty awareness in urban sprawl simulations: Lessons from a small US metropolitan region

Land use change modeling and simulation is a popular tool in land use planning and policy formulation. However, the outputs of land use change simulation are not always accompanied with information on uncertainty. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the inherent uncertainty in sprawl simulation, which is attributable to error in the input parameters and to limitations in our understanding of land use systems. To reach this goal, the paper determines sprawl simulation accuracy and uncertainty for a small US metropolitan region as produced by the CLUE-S modeling framework. The model simulates sprawl location in the region accurately, but the certainty of sprawl location projections decreases with time. This uncertainty in the simulation suggests that modelers should report uncertainty with their output over all time horizons so that, on the one hand, land use planners and decision makers do not place too much confidence in any single sprawl simulation (which could lead to unwarranted and expensive urban growth management policies) and, on the other hand, do not place too little confidence in sprawl models (which could have severe socioeconomic and environmental consequences). Thus, reporting uncertainty with simulation output provides planners and decision makers with a platform for more informed land use policy.     

Urban spill over vs. local urban sprawl: Entangling land-use regulations in the urban growth of China's megacities

Rather than a bad case of urban sprawl, the physical expansion of China's megacities may be viewed as a combination of ‘urban spill over’ and ‘local urban sprawl’. This paper reviews land use regulations in their institutional context and argues that conflicts in land use regulation are related to ideologies of land ownership and embedded in different planning doctrines. These hypotheses are investigated with special reference to Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong Province in southern China. The evidence suggests that entangled land use regulations for “urban” and “rural” land have imposed serious constraints on urban growth, while the contradictions of different policies and regulations in the use of rural lands for urban construction have led to intensive and unhealthy competition among stakeholders. As a result, not only have the costs of land conversion from rural to urban uses increased, but the spatial development of Guangzhou has been distorted. The implications of these failures for future policy are discussed with emphasis on the reform of the land use regulation system.     

Stakeholder perceptions and governance challenges in urban protected area management: The case of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area,Philippines

The conservation and management of protected areas in urban settings has become increasingly challenging with dynamics over land use change in adjacent urban areas being highly relevant to, but at times conflicting with, the protected area. This study seeks to better understand the implications of land use change processes to urban protected area management through the case study of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area (LPPCHEA) in Metro Manila, Philippines. Factors and processes influencing land use change and protected area management and the impact of stakeholders’ perceptions on protected area were analyzed. The urban protected area in itself has limited influence on its surrounding urban areas, as land use change in these areas is shaped more by social, economic and policy/institutional factors occurring within the context of urban-regional development. The study also found that land use conflict is evident in an urban protected area due to the competing ecosystem services derived by various stakeholders. This discord is deepened by the lack of coordination between land use planning and protected area management. Integrating protected area management with land use planning through legally binding instruments, specific timeframes and clear internal procedures can help resolve land use conflict for an urban protected area at the strategic or policy level.     

Does EU rural expenditure correspond to regional development needs?

The EU offers a complex system of rural development interventions as part of its Common Agricultural Policy. A Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) has been developed for the programming period 2007–2013 in response to challenges faced with the evaluation of rural development measures in earlier programming periods.Statistical and multivariate analysis of CMEF baseline (regional characteristics) and input (expenditure) indicator data at the NUTS2 subdivision level is used to compare four typical expenditure allocation patterns (Competitiveness, Environment, Rural Viability, Equal Spending) in terms of associated regional characteristics and development trends.The results suggest expenditure priorities are generally in line with regional needs and that there are some positive development trends, for example higher increase of agricultural labour productivity in the Competitiveness Group, while for environmental topics the level of data required remains unsatisfactory for trend assessment. 17% of the regions have a budget allocation pattern deviating from other regions with similar characteristics, which could indicate ineffective priority setting. Consistent CMEF data over multiple programming periods would be desirable to support the relationships found and to facilitate time series analysis, but this seems questionable given that the European Commission has discontinued the CMEF in 2014 with further adaptations for the 2014–2020 programming period underway.     

Detecting the impact of the “Grain for Green” program on the mean annual vegetation cover in the Shaanxi province, China using SPOT-VGT NDVI data

In order to reduce the soil erosion rate on the Chinese Loess Plateau, the Chinese government launched in 1999 the “Grain for Green” program (GfG). The objective of this program was to increase the forest cover on steep slopes in the landscape by planting trees and sowing grasses on former cropland. The program was a massive investment by the Chinese government. By the end of 2005 the GfG-program was implemented in an area of 87,000 km² in which about 400–600 million trees were planted. At present it is not known to what extent this program was successful. This paper examines the effects of the GfG-program on the mean annual vegetation cover in the Shaanxi province. A decadal time series of SPOT VEGETATION imagery from 1998 till 2005 were used to calculate NDVI-values in four counties with different rainfall regimes. By means of a regression between preceding rainfall and NDVI-values the effects of rainfall variability were filtered out. A trend analysis of the corrected NDVI time series pointed out that the GfG-program resulted in a significant increase of the vegetation cover on farmland in the northern part of Shaanxi province. In the southern part of the province, which has a more humid climate and large areas of irrigation farmland no significant increase of the vegetation cover on farmland could be detected.