Macro–micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes

The pressure on an already stressed water situation in South Africa is predicted to increase significantly under climate change, plans for large industrial expansion, ongoing rapid urbanization, and government programs to provide access to water to millions of previously excluded populations. This article employs a general equilibrium approach to examine the economy‐wide impacts of selected macro and water‐related policy reforms on water use and allocation, rural livelihoods, and economy at large. The analyses reveal that implicit crop‐level water quotas reduce the amount of irrigated land allocated to higher‐value horticultural crops and create higher shadow rents for production of lower‐value water‐intensive field crops, such as sugarcane and fodder. Accordingly, liberalizing local water allocation within irrigation agriculture is found to work in favor of higher‐value crops, and expand agricultural production and exports and farm employment. Allowing for water trade between irrigation and nonagricultural uses fuelled by higher competition for water from urbanization leads to greater water shadow prices for irrigation water with reduced income and employment benefits to rural households and higher gains for nonagricultural households. The analyses show difficult trade‐offs between general economic gains and higher water prices, which place serious questions on subsidizing water supply to irrigated agriculture, i.e., making irrigation subsidies much harder to justify.     

Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant, and nonruminant production: measurement and forecasts

Projections of future productivity growth rates in agriculture are an essential input for a great variety of tasks, ranging from development of an outlook for global commodity markets to the analysis of interactions between land use, deforestation, and ecological diversity. Yet solid projections for these variables have proven elusive—particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty of measuring historical total factor productivity growth. Consequently, most productivity projections are based on partial factor productivity measures that can be quite misleading. The purpose of this work is to provide worldwide forecasts of agricultural productivity growth till the year 2040 based on the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants, and nonruminant livestock. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the nonruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, nonruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels in developing countries are likely to be diverging from those in developed countries.     

The Amenity Value of Agricultural Landscape and Rural–Urban Land Allocation

We analyse rural–urban land allocation in the light of the increasing environmental role of agricultural landscapes. The landscape amenity value of farmland varies across crops and as a result affects the optimal crop mix in addition to its effect on rural–urban land allocation. Investigating the effects of population and income growth processes, we find that, contrary to market outcomes, the socially optimal allocation may call for more farmland preservation under both processes. In an empirical application to a region in Israel, we find that the extent of market under‐supply of farmland is substantial and that population growth calls for more farmland preservation at the expense of urban land.     

区域农村发展差距成因评价指标体系研究

论文采取定性与定量相结合的方法,以我国东、中、西部地区农村居民人均纯收入为主变量(Y),选择了31个指标为因子变量(X),构建区域农村发展差距成因评价指标体系,并对造成我国区域农村发展差距的关键因子进行相关分析。结果表明,东部地区达到显著水平以上的关键因子有21个,中部地为20个,西部地区为19个。进一步研究显示,人均非农行业总产值、农机总动力、化肥农药和薄膜、平均受教育年限、水土流失治理和除涝治碱面积、公路交通密度、人均农村用电量、人均水库库容量、粮食单产水平等12个因子是影响区域农村发展差距的关键因子。     

Aid to Agriculture, Growth and Poverty Reduction

Agriculture and rural growth promotion show a recent 'comeback' in development cooperation, but action on the ground so far is not sufficient. After years of neglect, policy makers have recognized that poverty reduction in many low income countries can only be achieved if development efforts are clearly focused on the sector which employs most of the poor, and the space where most of the poor live. The importance of agricultural growth was amply demonstrated during the economic transformation of Asia. Forty years ago, Asia was a continent of widespread poverty. Today, most Asian countries are experiencing significant growth and poverty reduction. Rapid growth in productivity in the small-farm sector helped drive this process. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, failed to achieve rapid agricultural growth and remains mired in poverty and hunger. If Africa is to halve poverty by 2015 in accordance with the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), agriculture will need to maintain an annual growth rate of 6 per cent between 2000 and 2015. China's experience from 1978 to 1984 shows such growth is possible. Achieving the desired rapid rates of growth in Africa will require coherent policies by governments and donors, a substantial investment of public resources in rural infrastructure and access to agricultural technology, and significant improvement in national governance.     

Convergence of Romanian and Europe Union agriculture – evolution and prospective assessment

This paper presents forecasts related to the evolution of agricultural production in Romania, relative to the European Union average and to other countries (France, Germany, and Hungary) while taking into consideration the production potential of Romanian agriculture and opportunities to mobilize certain additional financial sources intended for the growth of intermediate consumption and implicitly of the value of agricultural production. This undertaking is designed to identify the degree to which over the next 20 years, Romania can come closer to agricultural performance, standard of living and food quality levels of developed European countries. Current disparities are significant, and there is no promise that they will be eliminated or at least not for all indicators, as structural problems related to Romanian agriculture at this time can be addressed only over the long term. We use historical data drawn from national and international statistical databases and forecast of their evolution using power regression functions. For French, German, Hungarian and European Union-27 average values, the historical growth rate has been preserved, and we develop three scenarios (pessimistic, realistic and optimistic) for Romania based on annual growth rates of 3%, 3.5% and 4%. On the basis of these work assumptions, we forecast agricultural production value, gross added value and intermediate consumption per hectare of agricultural area utilized. From these indicators we find that by maintaining the same historical development rate for all countries, Romania cannot reach the average European Union-27 level or levels for the other countries studied (France, Germany and Hungary) until 2038. A realistic scenario that takes into account an annual growth rate of 3.5% would allow for the elimination of disparities while taking into account a new evolutionary perspective on agricultural production with new production structures based on the following factors: amalgamation of land, expansion of irrigated surfaces, growth of animal production shares, development of agricultural research, expansion of financing opportunities.     

Land rental in a multi-ethnic society: Insights from Southwest China

This study presents detailed evidence on the characteristics, processes, and consequences of land rental practices in a multi-ethnic rural society in Yunnan Province, Southwest China, which have rarely been explored. It contributes to the existing literature on land rental and control by considering the dimension of ethnicity. The findings show the following: Interethnic land rental is a very common and noteworthy feature in the selected Han-Jingpo multi-ethnic rural society. Han ethnic households rented and accumulated a large proportion of farmland and forestland from neighbouring Jingpo ethnic households. This was done to expand cash crops and timber forest, as opposed to the activities of Jingpo ethnic households. Interethnic land rental was mainly triggered by different development capabilities and attitudes towards agricultural commercialization supported by differences in resource assets due to ethnic living patterns and other dynamic socio-political reasons. Consequently, Jingpo ethnic households are experiencing an increasing income gap due largely to declines in farmland and forestland, while possibilities for positive interethnic interactions were found. These findings are relevant for rethinking land rental policies in China and also provide useful insights for rural sustainability in any multi-ethnic area where interethnic interactions of land or other resources coexist.     

Fueling agricultural growth in India: Some reflections

Indian agriculture is experiencing under-performance despite increased attention given to it in the recent past. This paper analyzes the disparities in agricultural growth across Indian states and explores the determinants of agricultural growth, using Panel Corrected Standard Error approach. Analysis using beta convergence shows that the disparities across the state's agricultural growth are narrowing down for the period 1980–1981 to 2011–2012. However, to stimulate growth in the states where agriculture is lagging behind, a higher emphasis on increasing the area under irrigation, expenditure on agricultural research, area under fruits and vegetables, number of regulated markets, length of roads, cold storage facilities and institutional credit for investment purposes is needed. Private sector should be involved in public–private-partnership mode for improving the infrastructure in this sector.     

杭州、绍兴农户劳动力流动与农户土地利用群体类型的Crosstabs分析

研究目的：根据农户转出劳动力就业形式、流动规模和农户土地利用方式分别进行农户群体类型划分,探讨农户劳动力流动和土地利用的相互关系,以期为制定农村地区发展政策提供基础研究支持。研究方法：针对杭州、绍兴农户劳动力流动的情况,选择了7个村159户农民进行实地调查,在调查的基础上,对调查数据进行统计分析。研究结果：（1）调研地区农户群体类型分划基本清晰,主要为打工主导型和转出滞留型,占调研总数的50.94%、30.80%;（2）45.68%的打工主导型农户和22.45%的转出滞留型农户将土地全部转出用于农业用途,户均转出面积分别为0.12 hm2、0.14 hm2,而32.65%的转出滞留型农户则将全部土地用于耕种粮食作物,户均种植面积为0.13 hm2;（3）各类型农户目前主要为解决家庭消费用粮而耕种土地,64.20%的农户打算今后几年继续上年的土地经营状况,有扩张经营规模的农户比例相对较低。研究结论：根据不同农户群体类型的特点制定对应性实施政策,合理引导永久迁移主导型农户家庭向城镇地区转移,关注劳动力滞留型农户的土地耕种意愿,对其他4类农户群体则制定适宜的劳动力转移和土地利用保障政策。     

Sectoral and poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in Colombia

We aim to assess the sectoral and poverty impacts of changes in agricultural policy in Colombia. For this, we use an agriculture specialized static computable general equilibrium model, together with a microsimulation model that allows employment to shift between sectors. Results indicate that the sectoral impact from policy changes tends to be small and that it considerably varies across crops. The macro model yields some gains in wages and capital rents, a relatively larger increase in land rents, and limited labor reallocation, together leading to small poverty impacts as calculated through the microsimulation model. The incidence of rural poverty decreases by less than 1% and the same happens to the poverty gap. In addition, poverty reductions are concentrated among households near the middle of the income distribution.     

Smallholder participation in the land rental market in a mountainous region of Southern China: Impact of population aging,land tenure security and ethnicity

Rural land rental markets in China play an increasingly important role in the transformation of the agricultural sector. This study focuses on the rural land rental market in the Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture in Southern China, a mountainous region, where rapid changes in land use have taken place with the transition from traditional agriculture and a tropical rainforest to rubber monoculture. Notably, we assess the impacts of population aging, land tenure security, and ethnicity on the participation of smallholders in the land rental market. The analysis suggests that a higher proportion of older people in a household increases the likelihood of renting out land and reduces the probability of renting in land, implying that population aging fosters land rental market development by transferring land from older to younger farmers. We also confirm that the availability of a land tenure certificate has a significant and positive impact on the renting out of land. Furthermore, ethnic minority groups are less likely to rent out land, indicating that land rental markets are ethnic sensitive. Additionally, specialization in rubber farming, household wealth and the altitude of household location also influence participation in the land rental market.     

Risk aversion and land allocation between annual and perennial crops in semisubsistence farming: a stochastic optimization approach

This article analyzes the effect of production uncertainty on farmland allocation decisions between perennial and annual crops, focusing on a representative farmer's attitude toward risk. A dynamic stochastic optimization model that considers net planting—the difference between new plantings and removals of perennial crops that achieve full production cycle—is used. The effect of uncertainty on the representative farmer's decisions to increase or decrease perennial crops’ acreage, on the optimal path, is examined. Our results reveal that the response of optimal path of net planting to uncertainty related to perennial crop production is highly affected by the farmer's attitude toward risk. A risk‐averse or a low‐risk loving farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops under uncertainty, while a high‐risk loving farmer will do exactly the opposite. Also, due to disutility of farming, the farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops when prices are high enough for him to attain a desired income level expectation. One implication of this research is the need for mechanization—in sub‐Saharan countries in particular—that increases per‐acreage yield and output in semisubsistence agriculture.     

Effects of Increasing Agricultural Productivity in a Multisectoral Model for the Philippines

This paper investigates empirically the economy-wide effects of agricultural productivity increases in the Philippines, reporting the results of a quantitative analysis based on a general equilibrium framework. A multisectoral, price endogenous model of the Philippine economy is employed, emphasizing not only agriculture but also other production sectors with which it closely interacts, as well as the distinction between rural and urban households in their income generation and consumption patterns. Among other findings, the differential effects on the real income of rural households vis-a-vis urban households arising from increased productivity in the various components of the agricultural production sector are striking. The resulting improvements in the trade balance and national income, among other macroeconomic variables, are also relatively significant. Moreover, there are significant differences in the economy-wide effects among the four sectors of food and agriculture distinguished in the study. Particularly interesting is the highly favorable impact of rising productivity in the food processing sector on agricultural crop production and rural income, a linkage effect that has not received much attention in the development literature.     

Towards productive landscapes: Trade-offs in tree-cover and income across a matrix of smallholder agricultural land-use systems

One of the main causes of tropical forest loss is conversion to agriculture, which is constantly increasing as a dominant land cover in the tropics. The loss of forests greatly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper assesses the economic return from increasing tree cover in agricultural landscapes in two tropical locations, West Java, Indonesia and eastern Bangladesh. Agroforestry systems are compared with subsistence seasonal food-crop-based agricultural systems. Data were collected through rapid rural appraisal, field observation, focus groups and semi-structured interviews of farm households. The inclusion of agroforestry tree crops in seasonal agriculture improved the systems’ overall economic performance (net present value), even when it reduced understorey crop production. However, seasonal agriculture has higher income per unit of land area used for crop cultivation compared with the tree establishment and development phase of agroforestry farms. Thus, there is a trade-off between short-term loss of agricultural income and longer-term economic gain from planting trees in farmland. For resource-poor farmers to implement this change, institutional support is needed to improve their knowledge and skills with this unfamiliar form of land management, sufficient capital for the initial investment, and an increase in the security of land tenure.     

Long run agricultural land expansion,booms and busts

Agricultural land expansion is a prominent feature in today’s developing countries. It is associated with a structural pattern of land use in many remote land-abundant regions where large-scale commercial primary product activities coexist with increased concentration of smallholders in more marginal areas. The result may be boom-bust cycles of development. If these phenomena are widespread across developing countries, then long-run expansion of agricultural land could be associated with lower levels of real income per capita, which may also fluctuate with prolonged expansion. A panel analysis conducted over 1961–2015 for 98 developing economies fails to reject this hypothesis. Policies should aim to decouple socio-economic gains through agricultural development from continued land expansion, and greater investments are needed to support smallholder agriculture, land distribution and livelihoods in these areas.     

农村宅基地整治中的土地利益冲突与产权制度创新研究——基于福建省厦门市的调查

宅基地整治本质上是通过一系列产权交易行为实现土地增值和土地利益再分配的过程。基于对福建省厦门市的实地调查,本文分析了宅基地整治中的土地利益冲突与产权制度成因,探讨了地方政府为协调利益关系所采取的制度创新及其成效与局限性。研究表明,集体、农户与市县政府之间的土地利益冲突以土地发展权价值的争夺为核心,根源于产权设计与治理结构的内在缺陷。为促进土地利益均衡分配,通过确权赋能实现三方产权关系的重构是基础,创设市场化的土地产权交易机制是核心,构建以集体为主体的多方合作型治理结构是保障。     

城乡一体化背景下耕地社会保障价值研究——以安徽省怀宁县为例

当下农村改革不断深化,农村经济社会面貌迅速变化,城乡一体化引领农村发展进入新阶段。为阐明当前农村地区耕地社会保障现状和发展趋势,本文采用条件价值评估法(CVM)在安徽省怀宁县进行了耕地社会保障价值研究。在条件价值评估法下,利用二项回归模型分析了影响受访者受偿意愿的相关因素,结果表明:受访者年龄、家庭年收入与受偿意愿呈负相关;家庭收入来源、农地流转期限、新农保养老金发放级别与受偿意愿呈正相关;同时测算出怀宁县耕地资源社会保障总价值为9.91亿元,占当地2014年国民生产总值的5.68%,单位面积耕地社会保障价值为1 141.67元/667m~2,占当地征地统一年产值的71.95%。通过与他人相关研究对比分析,结论认为目前耕地在中部地区农村社会保障体系中仍承担着基础性作用,但随着城乡一体化趋势的不断增强,耕地社会保障地位正在弱化,农村社会保障多元化发展趋势明显。     

Land reform and land fragmentation in Central and Eastern Europe

It has often been stated that land fragmentation and farm structures characterized by small agricultural holdings and farms divided in a large number of parcels have been the side-effect of land reform in Central and Eastern Europe. This article reports the findings of a study of land reform in 25 countries in the region from 1989 and onwards and provides an overview of applied land reform approaches. With a basis in theory on land fragmentation, the linkage between land reform approaches and land fragmentation is explored. It is discussed in which situations land fragmentation is a barrier for the development of the agricultural and rural sector. The main finding is that land fragmentation is often hampering agricultural and rural development when both land ownership and land use is highly fragmented.     

Socioeconomic determinants of farmland value in India

Developing countries have achieved remarkable overall economic diversification and growth during the last few decades, but farmland has remained a prime pillar of the livelihood support system of resource poor people in the rural areas of these countries. For these people, land is still the most important resource as it has multiple utilities such as a symbol of social standing, collateral value and a reserve capital asset for emergencies. Agricultural land assumes different values for different owners. This study establishes the criticality of age, education level, size of family workforce, dependency on agricultural income, productivity of land and location of farmland in influencing perception of value of farmland. Ignoring these factors creates a gap in the value of farmland as perceived by the farmland owner and the government. Knowledge of these factors may help in making appropriate adjustments in government declared prices of farmland for determining appropriate land compensation rate for a specific location.