EU‐wide Economic and Environmental Impacts of CAP Greening with High Spatial and Farm‐type Detail

In this paper we analyse the economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening introduced by the 2013 CAP reform using the CAPRI model. CAPRI captures the farm heterogeneity across the EU and it allows to depict the implementation of the greening measures in high detail while integrating the environmental effects and the market feedback of the simulated policy changes. The simulated results reveal that the economic impacts (land use, production, price and income) of CAP greening are rather small, although some farm types, crops (fallow land and pulses) and Member States may be affected more significantly. The CAP greening will lead simultaneously to a small increase in prices and a small decrease in production. Farm income slightly increases because the price effects offset the production decline. Similarly to economic effects, the environmental impacts (GHG emissions, N surplus, ammonia emissions, soil erosion, and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices) of CAP greening are small, although some regions may see greater effects than others. In general, the environmental effects at EU level are positive on a per hectare basis, but the increase in UAA can reverse the sign for total impacts. Overall, simulated GHG and ammonia emissions decrease in the EU, while the total N surplus, soil erosion and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices indicator slightly increase due to the CAP greening.     

The Role of the Common Agricultural Policy in Enhancing Farm Income: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Accounting for Farm Size in Italy

As a multi-objective policy, the EU Common Agricultural Policy continues to secure significant income support for farmers as one of the nine specific objectives. We estimate the income transfer efficiency of a broad set of pivotal policy measures, focusing on the effects of farm structure on income transfer efficiency. We use dynamic modelling, based on a micro-data panel of Italian farms for the period 2008–2014, allowing for endogeneity, simultaneity bias, and omitted variables. In line with previous studies and economic expectations, we find that decoupled direct payments provide the highest contribution to agricultural incomes, followed by agri-environmental payments and on-farm investment subsidies. Coupled payments have no significant impacts on farmers’ income. Generally, for all analysed Common Agricultural Policy measures, large farms benefit from greater transfer efficiency levels compared with medium and small farms. These differences among instruments and across farms suggest that policy-participation costs may play a pivotal role, together with the economic structure of farms, in determining the income transfer efficiency of CAP policies.     

Public support effect on natural disaster management: A case study of ice storms in forests in Slovenia

In the last decade Slovenia has experienced more frequent natural disasters in forests. The most severe and widespread one that affected Slovenian forests, which cover more than a half of Slovenian territory, was a large-scale ice storm in early February 2014. This study aims to investigate the effect of the public support on the recovery of forest farms affected by the 2014 ice storm. Analyses focus particularly on the ability of Slovenian forest farms’ income recovery in a short-time period. The economic resilience of forest farms in the absence of forest disaster payments due to the absence of legal certainty for disaster aid in 2014 and 2015 provides an interesting framework for identifying the income effect of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments. The Farm Accountancy Data Network has been used with applied statistical and regression methods to estimate the public support effect on selected woodland area size samples. Results suggest a positive effect of CAP payments on farm income recovery. The magnitude of the effect is high and significant for the less favoured area and disaster payments that were given for farm production loss in the 2013 drought. Although the magnitude of the effect is weak, investment payments show a significant positive effect on farm income recovery for all studied forest farm samples.     

The heterogeneous farm‐level impact of the 2005 CAP‐first pillar reform: A multivalued treatment effect estimation

This article aims to evaluate the impact of the 2005 reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm production choices as a treatment effect (TE). This impact is measured through alternative metrics of the short‐term changes of the output vector. The heterogeneity of the response to the reform is assessed by estimating both average and quantile TE. As this heterogeneous response may depend on the different farm‐level CAP support, a multivalued treatment approach is adopted and applied to treated units (i.e., supported farms). This approach is applied to a balanced panel of Italian FADN farms observed over years 2003–2007. Results show that the 2005 reform of the first pillar of the CAP actually had an impact in (re)orienting short‐term farm production choices but this response is largely heterogeneous and concentrated in the lower levels of support.     

Capitalisation of the SPS into Agricultural Land Rental Prices under Harmonisation of Payments

As the 2013 Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) calls for the harmonisation of Single Payment Scheme (SPS) payments, we estimate the implications of this mandate on agricultural land rental rates over time as Germany began harmonising payments in 2010. Using Bavarian farm‐level panel data we find strong capitalisation effects that increase substantially in the years following 2009. On average, the marginal effect on rental rates of an additional SPS euro is 37 cents, growing over time to 53 cents as harmonisation develops.     

The highly variable economic performance of European agriculture

The successive reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the enlargements of the European Union (EU) and the impacts of climate change have amplified the diversity of European agriculture. These rapid changes have resulted in the intensification of agricultural activities in some regions, while they have led to the marginalization of agriculture and its eventual abandonment in others. The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors that are behind the differential performance of agriculture across the EU-27 countries. Ward's, k-means and two-step clustering methods were used to classify European agriculture based on gross-value-added farm, land and labour productivity indicators. Significant differences were revealed between the Northern-Central counties and the continental peripheries (Mediterranean, Eastern, Northern Scandinavian). An exact logistic regression model was used to analyse the factors behind this differential performance. Agricultural sectors characterized by a young and better trained farm population are more likely to attain high economic performance. The odds to attain high economic performance are almost 9 times greater for countries with a highly trained farm population, namely, the Netherlands (72%) and Germany (69%), than for countries with poor farm training, while an ageing farm population such as in Portugal (72%) and Bulgaria (66%) is 92% less likely to be high performing. The importance of investments in agriculture was also identified. The significance of the wheat yield variable highlights the importance of both environmental conditions and technical efficiency on farm economic performance. Similarly, countries with a high share of utilized agricultural land in less favoured areas, such as in the Mediterranean, are 94% less likely to attain high economic performance. The redesign of CAP direct payments between old and new member states after 2013 combined with the impacts of agricultural trade liberalization and climate change are expected to deteriorate the position of low performing agricultural sectors further.     

Levelling the playing field for European Union agriculture: Does the Common Agricultural Policy impact homogeneously on farm productivity and efficiency?

Originally conceived as a post-war policy vehicle for ensuring agricultural self-sufficiency, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has evolved into a multifunctional instrument designed to satisfy a diverse portfolio of European Union (EU) policy objectives including nature protection. Notwithstanding, whilst the CAP has become more environmental and socially responsible, it is still expected to deliver an efficient farm production system capable of competing on world markets. The current paper combines a farm business panel dataset for 98 EU territories with a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) approach, to assess the impact of four contemporary broad categories of CAP subsidy programs on efficiency and environmental sustainability. In accordance with the literature, this study more correctly defines inputs as “facilitating”, whilst following recent methodological developments, crop-subsidies are treated as an endogenous strategic variable in the production function. Comparing between two discrete time periods, further tests are conducted to examine the hypothesis of technical efficiency convergence across european territories. The results suggest that first pillar crop subsidies and pillar two environmental programs generate a disincentive effect on productivity, whilst in general, the CAP promotes technical efficiency convergence within Europe.     

Farm-scale ecological and economic impacts of agricultural change in the uplands

Recent decades have witnessed substantial losses of biodiversity in Europe, partly driven by the ecological changes associated with intensification of agricultural production. These changes have particularly affected avian (bird) diversity in marginal areas such as the uplands of the UK. Future trends for upland birds will likely be impacted by changes in agricultural support regimes, such as those currently envisaged in on-going reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy. We developed integrated ecological-economic models, using seven different indicators of biodiversity based on avian species richness and individual bird densities. The models represent six different types of farms which are typical for the UK uplands, and were used to assess the outcomes of different agricultural futures. Our results show that the impacts of these future agricultural scenarios on farm incomes, land use and biodiversity are very diverse across policy scenarios and farm types. Moreover, each policy scenario produces un-equal distributions of farm income changes and gains and losses in alternative biodiversity indicators. This shows that generalisations of the effects of policy and pricing changes on farm incomes, land uses and biodiversity can be misleading. Our results also suggest that a focus on umbrella species or biodiversity indicators (such as total species richness) can miss important compositional effects.     

Agrobiodiversity,farm profits and land fragmentation: Evidence from Bulgaria

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the role of land fragmentation, crop biodiversity and their interplay with farm profitability. Original primary data are drawn from a survey conducted in the Plodiv region of Bulgaria. The econometric results stress the ambiguous role of land fragmentation on farm profitability. On one hand, land fragmentation reduces farm profitability. On the other hand, land fragmentation fosters crop diversification. We also find that crop biodiversity plays a beneficial role in farm profitability. Policies that aim to increase land consolidation and reduce fragmentation may overlook the positive link between diversity and plot heterogeneity. Policies that encourage land consolidation should, therefore, consider the crucial role that this has on other variables such as farm biodiversity.     

Biodiversity Conservation and Productivity in Intensive Agricultural Systems

This paper explores the economic effects of biodiversity loss on marketable agricultural output for intensive agricultural systems, which require an increasing level of artificial capital inputs. A theoretical bio‐economic model is used to derive a hypothesis about the effect of the state of biodiversity on the optimal crop output both in the longer run and in the transitional path towards the steady‐state equilibrium. The hypothesised positive relationship between biodiversity stock and optimal levels of crop output is empirically tested using a stochastic production frontier approach, based on data from a panel of UK specialised cereal farms for the period 1989–2000. The results support the theoretical hypothesis. Increases in biodiversity can lead to a continual outward shift in the output frontier (although at a decreasing rate), controlling for the relevant set of labour and capital inputs. Agricultural transition towards biodiversity conservation may be consistent with an increase in crop output in already biodiversity‐poor modern agricultural landscapes.     

Analysing behavioural differences of farm households: An example of income diversification strategies based on European farm survey data

Different forms of income diversification represent important strategies of farmers to either cope with the changing economic framework conditions or to valorise given territorial potentialities. Nevertheless, the decision to diversify economic activities on or off the farm will heavily depend on the agricultural business and household characteristics. Our study used a survey of 2154 farms from eleven European regions to identify distinct farm types in order to investigate differences regarding the willingness to diversify in the future. Two scenario situations with continuation (baseline) and without any market intervention (“No CAP”) were tested. A factor and cluster analysis depicted six farm types both previously described and novel. The typology proved validity across all case studies, whereas single types occurred more frequently under specific site conditions. The six farm types showed strong variations in the stated future diversification behaviour. Young farm households with organic production are most likely to diversify activities particularly on-farm, whereas farm types characterised by intensive livestock holding and also already diversified and part-time farm households are least likely to apply this strategy. Results have further shown that under hypothetical conditions of termination of economic support by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) an increasing share of farmers – throughout all types – would apply income diversification, mainly off-farm diversification, as a survival strategy.     

Conditions for the adoption of agro-ecological farming practices: a holistic framework illustrated with the case of almond farming in Andalusia

Agricultural landscapes offer unique habitats for many species. Because agriculture is a major land use worldwide, changes in farming practices can have major repercussions for biodiversity. Particularly in Western Europe, ongoing intensification and scale enlargement but also land abandonment and poor agricultural practices leading to land degradation form a major threat to agrobiodiversity. Agro-ecological farming practices are suggested as an alternative way of farming in order to conserve and enhance biodiversity. Yet knowledge about what factors explain farmers’ adoption of agro-ecological farming practices is fragmented and incomplete. In this paper, we offer a holistic framework that specifies these factors and how they are interconnected. The framework is illustrated and refined by means of a case study analysis of almond farming in Andalusia. The chosen case represents a specific localized farming practice that currently negatively impacts biodiversity but for which agro-ecology forms an attractive alternative regarding biodiversity. The case study demonstrates that our framework offers a useful tool to systematically identify the different factors that affect agro-ecological farming adoption, interlinkages between factors and particularly the more structural barriers to agro-ecology.     

Impacts of Decoupled Agricultural Support on Farm Structure,Biodiversity and Landscape Mosaic: Some EU Results

The decoupling of direct payments from production represents a substantial reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Farmers are no longer required to produce commodities to be entitled to support but only to keep land in Good Environmental and Agricultural Condition. If output declines as a result, there is concern that landscape services produced jointly with commodities will also decline. The aim of this paper is to assess the long‐term effects of the 2003 reform on farm structure, landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a sample of EU regions. Impacts are quantified using a spatial agent‐based modelling approach by simulating agricultural development with links to indicators of landscape value. Our results demonstrate that eliminating the link between support payments and production has possible negative consequences for the landscape, but only under particular circumstances. It is shown that these effects could be offset by strengthening (Pillar II) agri‐environmental schemes. Further the single payment scheme results in higher land rental prices which reduces its ability to achieve its goal of providing income security for farmers. Implications of these results for the direction of continued CAP reform are discussed.     

The Effects of Direct Payments on Technical Efficiency of Irish Beef Farms: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

The 2003 Mid‐Term Review of the CAP sought to refocus the EU's farm support policy to foster a more competitive and market‐orientated agricultural sector. The foundation of this reform comprised the introduction of decoupled payments to farmers, replacing the EU's previous system of supports that were directly linked to production of designated crops and livestock. This paper explores the effect of coupled payments and their subsequent replacement by decoupled support, on the technical efficiency of specialist beef farms in Ireland. Given the high reliance of beef farmers in Ireland on CAP payments, the decoupling of payments has been especially important for the sector. A stochastic production frontier is estimated using a panel dataset comprising detailed accountancy data for Irish beef farms between the years 2000 and 2013. Our results indicate that technical efficiency in the beef farming sector has been consistently poor, with an average efficiency score of only 0.53 during the period analysed. However, we found that direct income received in the form of coupled payments had a positive impact on farm efficiency, and that this positive effect was maintained after their replacement with decoupled income support.     

Profit efficiency and habitat biodiversity: The case of upland livestock farmers in Ireland

This study evaluates the private economic value of biodiversity using original farm habitat data and farm household survey data from livestock farms in the hills and uplands of Ireland. Profit efficiency and biodiversity efficiency are estimated using a stochastic translog production frontier model. Results indicate that biodiversity plays a beneficial role in farm profitability but the effect is non-linear. Stocking rate and the perimeter to area ratio are found to have a negative effect on biodiversity while the number of plots per farm has a positive effect. Biodiversity efficiency is influenced by the number of livestock, habitat quality, spatial habitat patterns and arrangement, perimeter to area ratio, the number of plots, profit efficiency and farmer's education and age.     

International diffusion of gains from biotechnology and the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy

This paper analyses the impact of adopting or rejecting genetically modified (GM) crops in the European Union, taking into account the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In this paper the productivity impact of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) differs across crops, taking factor biased technology change into account. The transfer of knowledge across countries is modelled as a process of endogenous knowledge spill-overs. Analysis with a multi-region applied general equilibrium model shows that the CAP protects farm income and production despite non-adoption of the more productive GM crops in the EU. The EU will forgo substantial benefits in terms of economic welfare if it bans GM imports.     

Assessing a farm's sustainability: insights from resilience thinking

Research on sustainability in agriculture often focuses on reducing the environmental impacts of production systems. However, environmentally friendly production methods may not be sufficient to ensure the long-term economic and social sustainability of a farm. Taking a systems approach to sustainable farming, we turn to resilience thinking with its focus on the interdependence of social and ecological systems. We apply this approach to farming by conceptualizing a farm as being part of a set of systems spanning several spatial scales and including agro-ecological, economic and political-social domains. These subsystems interact and are subjected to their own complex dynamics. Within such a complex adaptive system, farm sustainability can only be achieved through adaptability and change. To be ready for the inevitable periods of turbulent change, a farmer needs to retain diversity and redundancy to ensure adaptability. Resilience is thus more likely to emerge when farmers hone the capacity to transform the farm, when farm production is attuned to the local ecological carrying capacity, and when learning and innovation are targeted outcomes. This article shows how resilience theory applied to farming may provide a more comprehensive route to achieving sustainability and offers rules of thumb as guides to building farm resilience.     

Farmland habitat diversity in Ireland

While appreciation of the fundamental role biodiversity plays in underpinning the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems is growing, international commitments to preserve and protect this natural resource have not yet been achieved. Loss and degradation of farmland habitats are an important contributor to the continued decline of biodiversity. Despite this, little information is available regarding the diversity and ecological condition of farmland habitats in Europe. Indeed, where habitat data are available, this is usually at a very broad landscape scale rather than farm scale. Coupled with this, strategies to increase agricultural output in response to growing global population, will likely place increasing pressure on farmland biodiversity. Knowledge and ongoing monitoring of farmland habitat type and extent is a prerequisite for the future protection of much of Europe’s biodiversity. Here we report the findings of a national scale survey of farmland habitat diversity in Ireland.Detailed surveys of farm habitats and management practices (system, stocking rate agri-environment scheme participation status and organic N and P inputs) were undertaken on 118 farms in three regions of the Republic of Ireland (RoI). Recorded farm habitats were subsequently digitised on orthophotography. The resulting ground truthed data from the total surveyed area of 3688 ha, were then used, together with satellite imagery, to classify the habitat composition of a further approximately 87,000 ha of the surrounding landscape.Results revealed that at individual farm scale, an average of 73% of the land surveyed comprised agriculturally productive (mainly improved grassland) habitats. Marginally productive habitats (mainly extensively managed grasslands) accounted for an average of 11% of farm area, while other semi-natural habitats (mainly hedgerows) accounted for an average of 13%, with the remaining ca. 3% under build ground. Results from the classification at the wider landscape scale showed a similarly substantial incidence of non-intensively managed habitats. However, at both farm and landscape scales, habitat diversity was found to vary markedly between different regions and farming systems.This study represents one of a very small number that currently exist, where farm scale habitat and management data have been collected. From the few that are available, semi-natural habitat cover has been found to account for an average farm area of 1–12%. Therefore, our data present a relatively positive picture in terms of the intensity, scale and impact of Irish farming on landscape heterogeneity. However, as in other parts of the world, agricultural expansion and intensification to meet increased global food supply will necessitate careful monitoring of the impact of these changes on the structure of farmed landscapes. This study provides a novel approach for the collection of such monitoring data at farm scale, and illustrates how such data can be reliably up-scaled to landscape level.     

The EU’s ecological focus areas – How experts explain farmers’ choices in Germany

Ecological Focus Areas (EFAs) have recently been introduced as key element in the greening of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. In 2015, farmers across the EU have implemented EFAs for the first time. Data for German federal states indicate a strong variance in EFA decisions with an overall dominance of catch crops, nitrogen fixing crops and fallow land – two of which bear limited benefits for biodiversity conservation. This article explores how experts explain EFA choices. We conducted 35 qualitative, semi-structured interviews with representatives from the Ministry for Agriculture, farm advisory services, and farmers’ associations in each federal state. Applying content analysis we clustered the factors mentioned as determinants for farmers’ EFA choices into the categories administrative considerations, economic considerations, local factors, ecosystem considerations and policy incentives. According to the interviewed experts, farmers have primarily registered measures that already existed on their farms. Administrative considerations dominate the identified determinants for farmers’ EFA decisions, and together with economic considerations appear to function as a negative incentive for EFA options that are beneficial for biodiversity, such as landscape elements and buffer strips. We conclude that conditions for EFA implementation were found to not effectively incentivise a higher share of biodiversity supporting characteristics in German agricultural landscapes. Based on a detailed discussion we extract recommendations on how to improve EFA implementation.