Urban proximity,demand for land and land shadow prices in Malawi

We assess the spatial and intertemporal variation in farmland prices using per hectare minimum willingness to accept (WTA) sales and rental (shadow) prices in Malawi. We use three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), collected in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The sample is split in quintiles based on distance from the nearest major city, building on the land valuation and transaction cost theory, and agrarian political economy perspectives on global and national land transactions. Generally, farmland shadow prices decrease with distance from urban areas. However, farmland shadow sales prices increased more sharply between 2010 and 2013 in rural areas (+100 % vs +30 % in urban proximity). The results indicate that the sharp increase in demand for large-scale land transfers following the sharp increase in energy and food prices also affected rural smallholders’ land valuation, even in remote rural areas of Malawi. Conversely, by 2016 land shadow sales prices were again, like in 2010, about three times as high in areas near urban centres compared to remote rural areas. Even though sales prices declined in remote rural areas from 2013 to 2016, rental prices remained high. Using farm household-level population pressure variable, we show that local population pressure is a driver of farmland shadow prices, indicating land scarcity challenges, growing demand for land, and poorly developed land markets. With increasing land scarcity, land markets are becoming more important and need to be factored in when formulating development policies that aim to improve access to land in both peri-urban and rural areas.     

Demand for second-stage land certification in Ethiopia: Evidence from household panel data

Ethiopia has implemented one of the largest, fastest and least expensive land registration and certification reforms in Africa. While there is evidence that this ‘first-stage’ land registration has had positive effects in terms of increased investment, land productivity and land rental market activities, the government is now piloting another round of land registration and certification that involves technically advanced land survey methods and computer registration. This ‘second-stage’ land registration differs from the registration system employed in the first round that used field markings in conjunction with neighbors’ recollections to identify plot borders. We use panel data from 600 households in southern Ethiopia to investigate household perceptions of and demand for such a new registration and certification. Our study revealed relatively low demand and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for second-stage certificates. The WTP also decreases significantly from 2007 to 2012. Our findings indicate that farmers do not believe that the second-stage certificate enhances tenure security relative to the first-stage certificate except in instances in which first-stage certification was poorly implemented. The demand for second-stage certificates appears to come primarily from governmental authorities, as it can provide a better basis for land administration and produce accessible public documentation of land-related affairs.     

House prices and land regulation in the Copenhagen area

We analyse house prices from 1992 to 2011 in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen. In line with most other metropolitan areas in Europe, Copenhagen house prices showed solid increases during this period until 2007 when a downturn in prices began. The price gradient from the centre of the metropolis to the outskirts also became steeper over these years. We investigate the influence of land regulation on this development and find indications of an upward pressure on house prices from restrictive land regulation at the municipal as well as the national level.     

Geographic disparities in rural land appreciation in a transforming economy: Chile, 1980 to 2007

This paper reports on a research effort to gather and analyze rural land value data during a period of unprecedented growth in Chilean agriculture. This information is important to understand the geographical distribution of gains associated with the transformation of the rural sector during a period of rapid development, trade liberalization and transition toward a predominant emphasis on export earnings in agriculture. A large set of data of rural land transactions for 1980, 1990, 1997 and 2007 were collected from a sample of land registry offices. Results show notable declines in the physical size of transactions, significant average annual rates of increase in real per-hectare values, and a small-parcel premium for rural land associated with non-farm land use. Overall real land values have increased faster than the average annual growth rates in the agricultural sector’s value added, suggesting that land owners have gained proportionately more than other claimants to sectoral income. Tests show significant geographic disparities in annual rates of land appreciation across regions and municipalities. Consistent with differential net gains due to integration into world markets and the geographic heterogeneity of suitability for different land uses, northern areas, with greater emphasis on export-oriented crops, have experienced the highest average rates of annual real per-hectare value growth, in the order of 7 percent, while southern areas, emphasizing traditional crops and pastures/livestock, have experienced growth rates of half that. Geographic disparities are also explained by proximity to urban population and income centers.     

Supply side constraints in the Israeli housing market—The impact of state owned land

House prices in Israel have risen since 2008 by as much as 98%. Much of this increase is attributed to low levels of housing supply and housing supply elasticities. In Israel land is frequently owned by the state. This results in heavy government involvement in the housing market through the control of land supply via land tenders. This paper estimates the impact of state owned land on the Israeli housing market focusing on these unusual conditions of land supply. A model for the creation of new housing units is proposed. This incorporates land tenders, enabling the estimation of housing supply dynamics with an accurate measure of public land supply. The model is tested using regional panel data which facilitates the dynamic estimation of national and local supply elasticities and regional spillovers. The paper uses novel data sources resulting in a panel of 45 spatial units over a span of 11 years (2002–2012). Due to the nonstationary nature of the data, spatial panel cointegration methods are used. The empirical results yield estimates of housing supply price elasticities and elasticities with respect to land supply. Results show that housing supply is positively impacted by governmental decisions but the impact is low. Supply elasticity with regard to government land tenders stands at around 0.05 over the short run and 0.08 over the long run. Government policy of offering land in low demand areas and fixing minimum-price tendering does not seem to affect housing supply. Policy implications point to the need for more sensitive management of the delicate balance between public and private source of land in order to mitigate the excesses of demand shocks.     

The Effect of Farmland Preservation Programs on Farmland Prices

Government agencies in urbanizing areas are increasingly utilizing purchase and transfer of development rights programs to preserve farmland and protect local farm economies. This paper tests the effect of development restrictions imposed by permanent easement sales on farmland sales prices, using Maryland data. We correct for selectivity bias due to the voluntary nature of these programs in estimating hedonic sales equations. Although preserved parcels' actual land values are lower, the effect of the restrictions is not statistically significant. These findings may encourage additional participation in preservation programs or justify reductions in the easement prices paid by agencies.     

Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China

Land use regulation has always been regarded as one of the most crucial means of macro-control of urban growth, which can affect a city’s land values directly and further determine related urban economic well-being. Since the New Type Urbanization Strategy proposed by the government in 2014, China’s mode of urban growth has been transformed from addressing “quantity” to “quality" in the urbanization process. In this case, the regulation of land use by the Chinese government plays a more important role in urban growth. With their planned land regulatory scheme, the various instruments employed by Chinese governments have quite different mechanisms influencing land prices. However, there are no rigorous studies focusing on the land use regulation system and its impact on land values to date, particular in China. This study seeks to explore how land use regulation affects urban land values through the systematic lens. We summarize the main land use regulatory instruments based on the analysis of China’s planned land use system and urban land banking system, including the construction land quota, constraints on the allowed floor area ratio (FAR) of each land transaction parcel, and land supply restrictions. A new dataset based on land transaction data from 2007 to 2016 that covers 286 prefectural cities from the country’s coastal, central, and western regions is used in the empirical analysis. The results show that the effects of the floor area ratio (FAR) on land values are significant and positive, with the residential and commercial land supply ratio being a key factor. Moreover, the results imply that the effects of constraints on FAR and commercial land supply vary between regions. These findings indicate that the Chinese land market is considerably distorted by excessive administrative interventions by local governments, in the stage of urban transition guided, the capable regulatory instruments could play an important role in adjusting urban land prices and hence impact on urban growth.     

Land prices and land subdivision in Madina,Saudi Arabia; 1965–85

Summary

This paper is concerned with explaining the relationship between land prices and subdivision activity in Madina, Saudi Arabia. This article is not concerned with the effect of land prices on individual landowners, but rather on the supply of land in general. First it is necessary to explain the increase in land prices and why they have risen in real terms over time, what are the periods of growth and decline and what effects have they had on the supply of land for subdivision. This paper then explains the geographical variations in land prices and their influence on the distribution of land subdivision throughout the Madina area, especially in inner city areas and suburban areas.     

不同类型房价对城镇化的影响研究 ——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

研究目的：建立房价与城镇化之间关系的逻辑分析框架,探讨不同类型房价对城镇化的作用机理。研究方法：理论分析和面板数据模型相结合。利用2001—2012年中国28个省际面板数据模型进行了实证检验,并分为2001—2005年和2005—2012年前后两个阶段进行比较研究。研究结果：从整个时间跨度来说,住宅价格提高对城镇化水平的提高起抑制作用,且后一阶段影响更为显著;商业用房价格对城镇化发展起到促进作用,但显著性不高,自东向西呈梯度增大趋势;工业用房价格对城镇化的影响较为复杂,前后阶段出现了明显变化,主要是由于后一阶段工业用地市场化和产业梯度转移的结果。研究结论：为实现中国新型城镇化建设的重要任务,需要控制住宅价格水平,商业用房价格无需过多关注。     

Testing for regional convergence of agricultural land prices

The focus of this paper is on spatial market integration in agricultural land markets. We scrutinize the applicability of the law of one price to land markets and distinguish between absolute and relative versions of this “law”. Panel data unit root and stationarity tests are applied to land sale prices in the German state Lower Saxony. Three main clusters with different price developments are detected. Our results indicate that the law of one price holds only locally due to structural differences among regions.     

Early growing season weather variation,expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia

Using unique crop-specific data gathered over 7 years, we study if and how maize-producing farmers in Ethiopia adjust their land allocation decisions in response to pre-planting-season weather variations. We show that farmers adjust their land allocation decisions in response to increased temperatures early in the growing season. In addition to quantifying a substantial adaptation margin that has not been documented before, our study also reveals the presence of a weather variation-induced expansion of maize production into areas that are less suitable for maize cultivation.     

土地市场对房价的时效影响研究--以广州市为例

在全国范围内房价出现持续上涨的同时,广州市的房价却出现了阶段性平稳下降的现象.鉴于土地市场是影响城市房地产价格最为重要的因素之一,通过采用时差相关性方法测算广州市土地市场相关因素对房价在时间上领先或滞后作用及年限,结合实证分析广州市土地交易价格、土地供应面积、土地出让金与政策法律法规均对房价的时效作用,并提出可行性的政策建议.     

World food prices and poverty in Indonesia

Spikes in international food prices in 2007–2008 worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, both rural and urban, but only by small amounts. The paper reaches this conclusion using a multisectoral and multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The negative effect on poor consumers, operating through their living costs, outweighed the positive effect on poor farmers, operating through their incomes. Indonesia's post‐2004 rice import restrictions shielded its internal rice market from the temporary world price increases, muting the increase in poverty. But it did this only by imposing large and permanent increases in both domestic rice prices and poverty incidence. Poverty incidence increased more among rural than urban people, even though higher agricultural prices mean higher incomes for many of the rural poor. Gains to poor farmers were outweighed by the losses incurred by the large number of rural poor who are net buyers of food, and the fact that food represents a large share of their total budgets, even larger on average than for the urban poor. The main beneficiaries of higher food prices are not the rural poor, but the owners of agricultural land and capital, many of whom are urban based.     

论土地价格的本质及其来源

研究目的：论证土地价格的本质及来源,凝练土地经济学规律。研究方法：归纳与演绎法,文献研究法。研究结果：土地作为自然资源和生产要素,在人类社会出现土地私人占有以后就出现了土地价格;土地价格是在交换过程中形成的,是土地占有或放弃占有的对价;土地价格是土地利用能力的标尺,是土地财产价值量的经济表征;土地的本质属性决定了土地价格变化的特殊性;土地价格最终取决于土地利用能力,土地价格是其预期收益的购买价格。研究结论：土地价格最终来源于土地产出品价格,应遵循这一基本规律认识和解决土地经济问题。     

Determinants and impact of sustainable land management (SLM) investments: A systems evaluation in the Blue Nile Basin,Ethiopia

Ongoing debate over water management along the Blue Nile and land degradation in Ethiopia emphasizes the need for efficiency gains in agricultural production through sustainable land management (SLM). However, previous SLM studies overlook the tradeoffs involved in maintaining SLM investments over time. We address this limitation by combining a household survey that evaluates the economic impacts of SLM investments and maintenance, with a hydrological model that explores location‐specific infrastructure effects. We then use a multi‐market model to evaluate the impacts of alternative SLM investments on agricultural production, prices, and incomes over time. Analysis suggests SLM investments must be maintained for at least seven years to show significant increases in value of production, and that terraces on moderate and steep slopes are most effective in increasing agricultural yields. However, the benefits of terracing do not outweigh the cost of foregone off‐farm labor opportunities, nor compensate for lower agricultural prices from increased supply. Thus, SLM investments must be paired with other input and infrastructure investments, as well as subsidies for initial labor costs, in order to incentivize adoption and long‐term SLM maintenance.     

The influence of valuation practices upon the price of vacant inner city land

Summary

Many earlier studies have provided useful statistical information on the extent of vacant land in British towns and cities, but few have attempted to relate land vacancy to the wider development process. This paper presents recent evidence from Inner Manchester which suggests that valuation practices operate to prevent inner city land prices from falling even in areas of apparent over‐supply. This creates a blockage in the development process. It is shown that asking prices for vacant sites currently on the market are often substantially in excess of the level of prices achieved in recent transactions. As the great waves of compulsory acquisition in Manchester are now over, the statutory rules of valuation do not account for this difference, although historic levels of value have been supported by recent local authority acquisitions by agreement. It is evident that the comparative method of valuation is unable to cope with few transactions or a declining economy, both of which characterize the inner city land market. As a result, inner city land prices appear to be revised downwards only slowly and reluctantly in response to lack of demand or excess supply.     

Fictitious commodification and agrarian change: Indigenous peoples and land markets in Highland Ecuador

Creating private property rights and establishing land markets were fundamental to the historical development of capitalism in the Global North and remain at the centre of capitalist development in the Global South. This article contributes to debates about these processes by analysing the relationship between land markets and indigenous peoples in Highland Ecuador. Building on Karl Polanyi's concept of fictitious commodities, it elaborates a new concept that makes an analytical distinction between the activation and development of land markets. The former refers to the occasional participation of actors in markets to secure land, whereas the latter relates to the establishment and expansion of markets that regulate the distribution and value of land through market prices. Focusing on indigenous land struggles in the late 20th century, this article shows that the activation of land markets created opportunities for indigenous peasants to secure land, whereas the development of land markets closed them down. Social and class differentiation among the highland indigenous population increased through this contradictory process. The article connects this historical analysis to recent developments in Ecuador to contribute to empirical and theoretical debates about contemporary land struggles and agrarian change elsewhere in the Global South.     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.     

Unravelling the dynamics of access to farmland in Tigray,Ethiopia: The ‘emerging land market’ revisited

This article uses ethnographic evidence from Tigray to revisit the debate on informal rural land markets in present-day Ethiopia. It explores informal farmland rental from a historico-anthropological, micro-analytical perspective in relation to the formal allocation of land use rights and to other informal land transfer practices. It shows how different rationales for land rental give rise to different socially embedded tenancy configurations. On the basis of this empirical evidence, the paper questions the appropriateness of the common idea that in Ethiopia ‘the land rental market is expanding’. It argues that research and policy thinking on land in Ethiopia could gain analytical power and relevance by adopting a less monolithic and abstract view on people's informal land transfer practices.     

当前我国农用地估价实践中亟待解决的问题

从当前农用地估价的实践出发，提出影响估价精度的六大问题，以期农用地估价实践者关注区域农用地地价水平平衡和农用地价与城镇地价在时间与空间的连续与衔接。