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1.
Building resilience is critical for metropolitan land use planning to strengthen the ability to cope with and minimize climatic disaster risks. Challenges still remain for metropolitan agencies in identifying the components or metrics for measuring resilience. Particularly, uncertainties in climate change and diversification in local contexts compel urban planners to mainstream community participation, indigenous knowledge and local attributes into the resilience assessment. This article aims to propose a novel methodology for assessing resilience, which can encourage stakeholder participation and communicate planners in shaping metropolitan land use policies. Using the Taichung metropolis, Taiwan as the study area, this article created a resilience metric called the Climatic Hazard Resilience Indicators for Localities (CHRIL) that is appropriate for use in a policy context. Then, this metric combined a fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis with a participatory geographic information system approach to measure and map resilience to climatic hazards. Through the participation of experts, local officers and community members, a multivariate analysis was applied to explain why low resilience areas occur in specific locations. Moreover, we performed a cluster analysis to group the areas into several types of resilience and revealed the relationship between the resilience factors and overall local development patterns. Results show that conflicts and tradeoffs may exist between some resilience factors, especially socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The findings provide stakeholders and policy-makers with a better governance structure to design and synthesize appropriate patchworks of planning measures for different types of resilience areas to reduce climatic hazard risks.  相似文献   

2.
In the context of climate change, adaptation to climatic extremes, such as drought, has attracted worldwide attention, yet many practical adaptation strategies need to be examined at the local level. Based on a case study of the village of Beidian, located in a drought-prone region in northern China, this study demonstrates that when faced with multiple pressures of regional climate change, drought risk and rural poverty, reasonable adjustments in land use patterns can serve as an effective adaptation strategy in the agricultural sector. We used household questionnaires, in-depth interviews with village managers, and land use surveys at the farming plot level to quantify the relationship between land use change and drought mitigation effects. Our findings indicate that in the past decade, the farming practices in Beidian have transformed from a complete reliance on the winter wheat–summer corn rotation to a new diversified mode of apple as the main crop and corn and coarse cereals as the subsidiary crops. The current farming mode is proven to possess a stronger adaptive capacity to drought due to its higher water-saving efficiency and economic benefit, which facilitates rural poverty reduction and socio-economic development. This study presents a feasible approach to address adaptation strategies at the local level, which provides policymakers with information on how to best support farm-level adaptation and to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climatic extremes within the broader context of climate change.  相似文献   

3.
4.
The main aim of this paper is to examine ways to integrate urban climate information into urban planning using spatially distributed information. To achieve this, the structures of urban planning in the study area and their contents concerning climate issues were examined. Spatially distributed information on ventilation, air quality and thermal situation in the study area was generated using the CAMPUS framework, which is a set of climate analysis and evaluation tools suitable for planning purposes. Finally, urban planning strategies concerning ventilation, air quality and thermal situation were suggested, and planning measures for implementing the planning strategies were recommended. This study will contribute to a discussion on how urban climate information can be more efficiently considered in urban spatial planning. Furthermore, the information generated in this study can support the development of an evaluative framework for the integration of the climate information into the environmental assessment process, e.g. the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in urban planning.  相似文献   

5.
This paper focuses on the estimation of direct damages caused by three flood scenarios with different return periods in the section Făgetul de Sus – Ghimeş – Palanca Pass of Trotuș River, with the aim of highlighting the need of improved land use plans. The damage for three land use classes (residential building, infrastructure and agriculture) were estimated using the damage curves developed by the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) as well as site specific maximum damage values. The data were processed with the help of the ArcMap 10.2 software and FloodRisk tool from QGIS software. Furthermore, the flood risk was assessed using the damage – probability curves, which associates the damage with the corresponding frequency of occurrence. This method was identified and adapted to the characteristics of the study area in order to develop a methodology of flood risk assessment that is answering the question: does the lack of land use plans increase the vulnerability and the flood damage? The results showed that the greatest damages are registered for the residential building land use class for a flood probability of 0.001. In this case the damages reach up to 60% on the scale range of deterioration factor, the total damage value being 2 million euros. For the same hazard probability the total registered damage value for roads is 7500 euro, for railways is around 12,000 euro, while for agriculture is around 84,000 euro. These results highlight the need of protection measures and land use plans development and implementation. Regarding the protection measures we consider that the egalitarianism would be the concept that should be applied in the study area and also an improved cooperation between government, specialized agencies and local authorities at local level would lead to a more efficient flood risk management process. The proposed methodology can be applied for micro-scale analysis, providing quantitative results regarding the flood damage and flood risk assessment. It includes a detailed vulnerability analysis of the elements-at-risk with the aim of developing a more comprehensive approach of flood risk assessment.  相似文献   

6.
Systematically identifying the barriers and requirements to adaptation is critical to the successful implementation of climate adaptation planning and policies at the local level, especially in the mountainous rural communities of developing countries with limited resources and technology. We conducted an empirical study of the barriers and requirements to adapting to climate change of 539 peasant households in an ecologically vulnerable area of China to enhance their resilience to climate change by improving our understanding of adaptation process and decision-making. Our findings indicated that farmers in the Gannan Plateau face multiple adaptation barriers, of which normative, information and technology barriers were more serious, such as lack of meteorological information service, infrastructure and technology extension in agriculture or animal husbandry. Adaptation requirements are an important way to effectively reduce or eliminate obstacles and improve farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. The survey found that local households have an urgent requirement for infrastructure, information and production technologies, such as water, electricity, transportation facilities, disaster warning information, employment information and farming or breeding techniques. In addition, due to the influence of economic level, education level, years of farming, gender and other factors, differences exist in the adaptation barriers and requirements faced by farmers in different regions. These findings extend empirical evidence in favor of formulating a reasonable adaptation framework and choosing optimal adaptation strategies, which are essential for enacting well-targeted regional adaptation policies.  相似文献   

7.
Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) measures have been increasingly promoted in the literature, as well as in policies and practices, for their environmental and socio-economic co-benefits. The recent scientific literature has shown a growing interest to assess climate adaptation plans at the urban level, in recognition of the important role played by urban areas in addressing climate change challenges. However, little information is available on the combination of these two issues, i.e., the actual inclusion of EbA measures in climate adaptation plans at the urban level. This paper addresses this gap by developing a framework to analyze the treatment of EbA in urban level climate planning, and apply it to a sample of climate adaptation plans in Europe. The framework consists of a classification of EbA measures, and a scoring system to evaluate how well they are reflected in different components of the plans. The results suggest that there is in general good awareness in plans of EbA measures, and of their potential role in addressing climate change challenges. However, their treatment in climate adaptation plans at the urban level often lacks sufficient baseline information, as well as convincing implementation actions. The paper concludes by offering recommendations to improve future practice, in terms of enhancing the baseline information to improve the proposal and design of EbA measures, improving the treatment of co-benefits associated to EbA measures, and strengthening coordination with other planning tools. Possible future development of this works include the integration of the proposed EbA classification, and the analysis of a larger sample of territorial plans.  相似文献   

8.
Climate change and land use/land cover change (LULCC) are associated with local vulnerability, defined as the intrinsic tendency of a system to be negatively affected by an event or phenomenon, but this can be ameliorated by ecosystem conservation. In Mexico, extensive Wildlife Management Units (eWMUs) are environmental policy instruments designed to promote ecosystem conservation and rural development via the sustainable use of wildlife by local populations. However, evidence of the successful reduction of LULCC by eWMUs is contradictory, and there has been no investigation into their potential as an action to promote climate change adaptation. In this study, we focused on the overall patterns of LULCC associated with eWMU throughout the country and examined strengths and weaknesses of eWMUs as policy instruments to address climate change. In particular, we analyzed how differences in areas with eWMUs influence LULCC and assessed how eWMUs could contribute to reducing vulnerability, particularly in double exposure municipalities. We calculated the percentage of eWMUs per municipality from official information and estimated LULCC from vegetation changes between 2002 and 2011. We then used the Kruskal-Wallis test to find statistically significant differences in vegetation changes based on the percentage of eWMUs and performed between-group comparisons using a post hoc Dunn test. Although Mexico has 2456 municipalities, only 37% have eWMUs. Furthermore, 64% of Mexico’s municipalities have lost vegetation cover, whereas only 36% have either gained vegetation or remained stable. In municipalities that recorded changes to the vegetation, those changes were, overall, minimal and involved less than 10% of the total area of those municipalities. In general, municipalities with less than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs experienced higher vegetation losses than those with more than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs. We detected twelve double exposure municipalities, i.e. they are vulnerable to climate change and lost more than 10% of their vegetation. Double exposure municipalities dedicated less than 2% of their total area to eWMUs as well. Our results suggest that incremental increases in the area dedicated to eWMUs may reduce LULCC and protect vegetation, particularly in double exposure municipalities. Based on the literature, some ecological, economic and socio-cultural factors may determine the success of eWMUs and strongly impact LULCC. Therefore, additional efforts must be made to enhance our understanding of ecological and climatic processes; habitats must be monitored using a standardized methodology; biological, cultural, economic and institutional diversity must be incorporated into the planning, implementation and monitoring of eWMUs; and agreements must be established to strengthen social organization and human capital. Taking all this into account, we suggest that reducing vulnerability and improving double exposure areas by increasing the number and interconnectedness of eWMUs could represent an effective strategic approach at the municipal level to address LULCC and climate change.  相似文献   

9.
基于济南都市圈近年来的统计资料,构建节点规模的系统性指标、经济联系强度模型等,结合主成分分析、回归分析、分形理论,明确济南都市圈城市体系规模等级结构与区域经济联系强度的特征。结果表明:城市的规模等级差异体现出交通指向性;城市规模分布集中,高位次城市规模不是很突出,中小城市比较发育,城市的综合得分分布比较均匀。区域经济联系强度的空间分布呈现出以济南、淄博为核心双星状,经济联系强度的分形特征体现出经济链强度分布差异程度较大的特点。最后,为优化济南都市圈,提出相关建议。  相似文献   

10.
In the face of climate change and other environmental challenges, an increasing number of cities are turning to land design to enhance urban sustainability. Land system architecture (LSA)—which examines the role of size, shape, distribution, and connectivity of land units in relation to the system’s social-environmental dynamics—can be a useful perspective for examining how land contributes to the social and environmental aspects of urban sustainability. There are two gaps, however, that prevent LSA from fully contributing to urban sustainability dialogues. First, it is not well understood how urban design goals, as expressed by urban planners and other practitioners, relate to LSA and environmental outcomes. Second, most LSA work focuses on individual environmental outcomes, such as the urban heat island effect, instead of considering the broader suite of outcomes that LSA changes impact. Here, we undertake an integrated assessment of LSA impacts on surface urban heat island (based on land surface temperature), vegetation presence/health (based on NDVI), and bird biota at two riparian sites with different design intentions in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area. The Rio Salado in Tempe underwent a city-led, infill redevelopment that mixed economic, recreational, and flood control design goals. The New River in Peoria experienced a more typical developer-driven urbanization. The contexts and design goals of the sites generated differences in their LSA, but only a few of these differences were sufficiently unique to contribute to divergent environmental outcomes. These differences reside in (1) the greater distribution of recreational land-covers and (2) increased surface water at the Rio Salado site compared to the New River site. Both changes are linked to land-cover patches becoming greener and cooler as well as a greater presence of waterbird and warbler species at the Rio Salado site. The distinctions between the sites provide insight for crafting design goals for redeveloping or restoring urban riparian landscapes in the Phoenix metropolitan area that are grounded in LSA. With the incorporation of additional relevant variables, especially socioeconomic ones, the research approach employed in this study provides a foundation for the assessment of other urban land system change.  相似文献   

11.
It is well known that urban expansion has a severe impact on the surface water balance by transforming vegetated covers into sealed surfaces. This transformation causes changing fluxes of evapotranspiration, surface runoff and groundwater recharge. In order to estimate the impact of land cover changes on the surface hydrology, hydrological models are often coupled with different types of land cover change models. It is, however, not clear to what extent spatially-explicit urban expansion scenarios provide an added value in comparison with non-spatial urban expansion models at different scale levels. The objective of this paper is to acquire a better insight in the importance of scale effects involved in the coupling of urban expansion scenarios and hydrological models. The relative importance of using different projections of both (i) quantity and (ii) spatial patterns of urban expansion was analysed at four different scale levels. The highly urbanised Flanders–Brussels region was taken as an example application. Twelve different urban expansion scenarios for 2025 and 2050 were developed and subsequently used as an input in a spatially-distributed water balance model. The results obtained suggest that at the level of the Flanders–Brussels region, an accurate estimation of the quantity of urban expansion should get priority over an accurate projection of the spatial patterns. However, the importance of using accurate projections of the spatial pattern of urban expansion increases systematically at local scale levels. A uniform strategy for coupling urban expansion models and hydrological models thus seems inappropriate. These findings are highly relevant for water management and spatial planning policymakers that typically operate at different administrative levels.  相似文献   

12.
Nowadays, urban flooding is becoming a severe issue in most of the developing and developed countries. The growth of the urbanization rate is also increasing, and the United Nations (UN) projected that 68 % of the world’s population would live in urban areas by 2050. People tend to migrate from rural to urban areas, which expose them more vulnerable to urban floods. The flood-related damages and deaths are increasing every year globally. Using the Birmingham city, Alabama (AL), USA as the study area, the objective of this research is to assess potential damage risks due to flood exposure of buildings and population in an urban area. Different social and environmental factors influence urban floods in an urban area. This paper considered elevation, slope, flow accumulation, land-use, soil types, and distance from the river as significant influential factors to urban flooding. The flood risk model hence can be developed by using an integrated GIS and cartrographic approach, in which we assessed and assigned weights to these factors and formed a GIS risk assessment model, which shows the level of flood risks in the floodplain areas of Birmingham and quantifies and maps both commercial buildings, home buildings, and populations’ exposed to flooding risks. This study found that the Valley Creek area is the highest flood risk zone in Birmingham, and about 48.85 percent of Valley Creek’s floodplain area will face very high flood risk. The findings further reveal that total number of 5602 people are living in high and very high flood risk zones in Birmingham that approximates 44.04 % of the total population in this floodplain area. The physical vulnerability is also assessed, and findings suggest that the Valley Creek zone has the highest percentage of residential (i.e., 56.14 %) and commercial (i.e., 75.34 %) buildings located in very high flood risk areas. Our study providing a GIS risk assessment approach to locating and mapping the areas, buildings, and populations from the most to the least at risks with a fine spatical scale for urban flood risk management. The numbers of vulnerable buildings and populations within each risk category are quantified and their distributions are mapped. Therefore, revealing population’s and buildings’ risks and their geographic information, this flood risk assessment can help local governments and communities prepare better to take actions against future urban flood events in Birmingham, and this integrated GIS and cartographic analysis for fine flooding assessments can be applied to other urban areas for flood mitigation and risk management.  相似文献   

13.
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) affects the climate through both biogeochemical (BGC) and biophysical (BPH) mechanisms. While BGC effects are assessed at global scale and are at the heart of climate treaties such as the Paris Agreement, BPH effects are totally absent despite their increasingly recognized impact, especially at local scale. This stems from the complexity in characterizing their climate impacts both at local and global scale, which makes it impractical to offer clear advices for the development of climate policies. To overcome this barrier, we built a prototype for an assessment tool to evaluate the local BPH impact of a series of land cover transitions. It relies on a dedicated methodology, based on satellite remote sensing data, that can estimate the local change in near surface air temperature associated with BPH effects of potential LULCC. This tool follows a tiered methodological approach, using transparent methods and mirroring what is currently provided by the IPCC to estimate the BGC effects, i.e. through different levels of increasing methodological complexity, from Tier 1 (i.e. default method and factors) to Tier 2 (i.e. similar to Tier 1 but with higher level of details and complexity) and Tier 3 (i.e. tailored solution to address national circumstances). The prototype tool enables the evaluation of the local impacts of land-related BPH effects, therefore facilitating a scientifically informed and comprehensive assessment of land-based climate policies.  相似文献   

14.
[目的]在全球新冠肺炎疫情等非常态因素影响不断蔓延、地缘格局突变及西方宣称经济脱钩之大背景下,中国食物安全的脆弱性问题愈发凸显,如何提高食物安全韧性成为食物安全战略的重中之重。[方法]文章基于“暴露性—敏感性—适应能力”的基本框架,分别从全国层面、区域层面和省级层面建立食物安全脆弱性综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法对各层面食物安全脆弱性水平进行了综合评价,以及运用重点移动方法分析了食物安全脆弱性空间迁移特征。[结果]全国食物安全脆弱性指数总体处于下降通道,但存在阶段恢复性的反弹特征;在食物安全脆弱性评价的权重中,食物生产维度最大,且其中的气候因素的权重相对较高;东部地区、主销区和东部沿海经济综合区是食物安全脆弱性较高的区域;天津、宁夏与上海的食物安全脆弱性问题突出;全国食物安全脆弱性重心呈向西南迁移态势,年均移动距离为90km。[结论]有必要建立具有更具前瞻性、更高韧性和更强适应能力的食物安全战略,从减轻暴露性风险和敏感性及提高气候因素等适应能力入手,强化食物安全较为脆弱地区的食物安全风险监测、预警和管理机制,提高食物安全的适应能力。  相似文献   

15.
Climate change will be one of the main global challenges in the future. In this context cities play a key role. If, on the one hand, cities cause climate change, on the other hand, they are the places where climate change impacts are most evident, as it deeply affects the quality of life of its inhabitants. Climate change impacts are particularly relevant for coastal areas. These are characterized by a higher concentration of buildings and people in comparison to inland areas. In particular, one of the forecasted effects of climate change in these areas is the increase in coastal flooding due to rising sea levels and storm surges. The implementation of strategies and actions for the adaptation of urban areas to the impacts of coastal flooding is essential to ensure the liveability of coastal communities. Urban planning plays a key role in cities’ adaptation. However, even though the interest in this topic has been increasing, operative support and tools for planning urban adaptation in cities are in short supply, especially in coastal cities. In light of this, it has become necessary to focus on the definition of new tools responding to the needs of urban planning.Based on these observations, this paper, starting from the existing literature on coastal vulnerability indices, has developed a new index: the Coastal Resilience Index (CoRI). Thanks to the CoRI and to the use of technological innovations applied to urban planning (in particular, Geographic Information Systems), a decision support tool has been developed to identify adaptation measures aiming to reduce the impacts of coastal flooding, caused by rising sea levels and storm surges.  相似文献   

16.
Although the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to climate change and its attendant hazards have attracted widespread attention, the quantitative detection and evaluation of their adaptive behaviors remains a difficult task that deserves further study. This article describes an empirical case study performed in southern China to examine the adaptation strategies of paddy farmers to agricultural drought. We collected first-hand data through household questionnaires, in-depth interviews with local managers, and farm-level land-use surveys. The effectiveness of the adaptation approaches of the farmers was assessed in terms of the ecological, economic, and social benefits. Our findings indicate that over the past three decades, when confronted with recurrent seasonal drought in a warming climate, farmers have gradually abandoned the double-cropping rice production and transformed their cropping patterns into a new diversified mode of “Rice-Cole, rice, cotton, seedling nursery, and coarse cereals”. Current farming practice reduces the vulnerability of local agriculture to drought, and allows farmers to diversify and improve their incomes, which contributes to enhanced resilience and adaptability to drought. However, the autonomous adaptation of farmers may primarily serve their interests of minimizing drought risk and maximizing economic profits but could also undermine the social benefits, such as regional grain security. A robust adaptation strategy should balance the ecological and economic benefits with social interests to maintain agricultural sustainability.  相似文献   

17.
[目的]农业水资源脆弱性是指在自然条件变动或人为条件干扰的前提下,衡量农业水资源系统影响农业可持续发展能力的指标,其评价对于农业水资源管理至关重要。在自然、社会以及人类活动变化条件下,农业水资源脆弱性研究可以结合暴露度、敏感度和适应度综合表达,这为实现农业用水系统的高效运作提供可能。研究目的是分析中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间格局,并对其进行分区与评价,为农业水资源管理提供科学依据。[方法]以中亚为研究区,依据水资源脆弱性概念框架,从暴露度、敏感度和适应度等3个指标中选取18个指标建立农业水资源脆弱性指标体系,采用等权重法和主成分分析法确定指标权重,对1992—2017年中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间格局及分区进行研究。[结果](1)中亚农业水资源暴露度、敏感度、适应度和脆弱性空间差异显著。受作物生育期的降水量、平均气温和相对湿润度指数影响,农业水资源暴露度大致由西南向东北降低;农业水资源敏感度主要受农业用水比例和农田灌溉定额影响,表现为从南到北降低的变化;农业水资源适应度受农业水分生产率和施政效率影响较大,表现为从南到北逐渐升高的变化;农业水资源脆弱性主要受敏感度和适应度因素影响,表现为自东北向西南升高的趋势。(2)根据中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间分布特征,将其划分为北部微度脆弱区、中北部轻度脆弱区、中南部中度脆弱区、南部重度脆弱区和西南部极度脆弱区5个大区,根据各分区农业水资源脆弱性地理特征,提出未来发展方向和对策。[结论]由于农业水资源供需矛盾不断加剧、水资源利用效率较低导致农业水资源脆弱性较高,因此管理农业水资源和调整农业生产布局成为中亚农业发展的重要问题。  相似文献   

18.
In less-developed countries, the major global pressures of rapid urbanization and climate change are resulting in increased vulnerability for urban dwellers. Much of the climate impact is concentrated in urban and coastal areas, as urban development spreads into areas that are hazard-prone. Often this development is dominated by poor quality homes in informal settlements or slums on informal or illegally occupied or subdivided land.Urban development needs to be more climate-resilient to meet the post millennium development goals (MDGs) agenda. One of the elements in achieving climate-resilient urban development is the degree to which climate change adaptation and risk management are mainstreamed into two major elements of land governance, viz. securing and safeguarding of land rights, and planning and control of land-use.This paper proposes ways in which the growth of human settlements can be better managed through responsible governance of land tenure rights, and effective land-use planning to reduce vulnerability, provide adequate access to safe land and shelter, and improve environmental sustainability.  相似文献   

19.
气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一,加剧了许多国家和地区的脆弱性,对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响尤为显著,明确气候变化对农户生计的影响,对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策,增强农户的气候变化适应能力,减轻农村贫困人口生计脆弱性具有重要意义。目前,国内外围绕气候变化对农户生计影响开展了许多研究,主要集中在过去或当前气候变化对水资源、土地、农作物、病虫害、人类健康等农户生计资本的宏观影响以及局地或区域尺度上气候变化对农户生计策略选择的影响等方面。从发展趋势看,亟需开展气候变化对农户生计的影响机理及适应机制研究,建立合理的气候变化对农户生计影响的评估框架,加强对模拟、分析和预测气候变化及其与其他压力相结合对农户生计要素的可能影响进行广泛评估,科学把握农户生计对气候变化脆弱性的关键影响因素,这对人类科学地适应气候变化和促进人类福祉和恢复力的提升具有重大的科学价值和现实意义。  相似文献   

20.
Climate change is predicted to have major consequences for small-scale farmers in the developing rural areas of the world. Rural areas, nonetheless, harbor opportunities to mitigate global climate changes. Identification of innovative adaptation strategies used by small-scale farmers, therefore, is crucial in order to understand the extent of their implications. This paper identifies the relationships between livelihood units and landscapes that they depend upon, in a small-scale farm community. It examines their experiences of increasing climatic variability, and how the different groups in the community are adapting to it. The study was conducted in a typical rural ejido community on the Pacific coast of Mexico (Ejido Ticuiz), where a detailed socio-cultural profile was obtained by means of semi-structured interviews. In the study area we encountered a range of individual and community-based adaptation strategies, built on farmers’ recognition of the different types of landscapes which supply goods and benefits. Small-scale farmers have used their landscape diversity to build adaptation strategies to guarantee the supply of goods and benefits to cope with uncertain of climate events. Households rather than individuals or the community as an institution were depicted as the core socio-cultural group for better understanding of patterns, behavior and aspirations related to climate change adaptation at local level. The adaptation capacities of rural communities could be significantly strengthened if political, financial and institutional support is targeted at households rather than at individuals or the community level only.  相似文献   

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