我国房地产泡沫形成的原因及对策分析

改革开放以来,中国的房地产业得到了迅猛的发展。目前,房地产业成为整个社会财富的重要构成,成为推动工业化和城镇化的重要力量,但房地产市场的蓬勃发展与急剧转型,出现了房地产市场泡沫经济现象。基于实证研究结论,通过分析我国房地产发展现状及我国房地产市场泡沫的成因,以典型城市的房地产市场泡沫数据为依托,从银行的角度,针对防范房地产泡沫提出了实行紧缩的房地产信贷政策,调整房地产信贷结构,加强房地产信贷监管等对策和建议。     

不动产抵押贷款证券化探讨

由于各种原因,我国的信贷资产证券化还没有发展起来,但随着房地产业日益成为国民经济支柱产业和资本市场的发展,不动产信贷资产证券化有望成为我国证券市场的突破口。文章介绍了不动产信贷证券化的基本原理;进而分析了我国实行不动产证券化的必要性;最后就在我国实行不动产证券化的机制完善和制度创新提出了五点建议。     

回归理性,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展

房地产市场是经济市场和金融市场的重要组成部分,由于房地产产业特征决定房地产市场在国民经济中的地位和作用,是构建和谐社会的重要内容。目前因整个房地产市场已融入经济市场和金融市场,投资性和投机性需求是抬高房价的重要原因,应回归市场理性,采取多种方式促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,达到人人都有房住的目的。     

Hybridization of valuation procedures as a medicine supporting the real estate market and sustainable land use development during the covid-19 pandemic and afterwards

Currently we are facing the pandemic situation that occur all over the world. Regardless the country or even the region, the negative consequences that are expected could be very big and the level of crisis is not predictable. This situation is the challenge for the real estate market as well. Due to this fact, the authors believe that there is the time when deep transformation of approaches, procedures and awareness related to valuation domain becomes. Today, due to the fact of the global COVID-19 and pandemic restrictions is the best time to implement the automated models and advanced technological solutions to the valuation world.The authors proposed the hybrid approach that is the way to reconcile the participants on the property market. Hybrid approach is understanding as the synergy in combining aspects of new (automated solutions) and traditional components that are developed in the agile mode system creation. The proposed solutions can be treated as a cure for some symptoms of the real estate market infection but also as a vaccine, which should to a large extent prevent restrictions and nuisance in real estate valuation in case of repeated infection.     

中国住房市场与土地市场协调性分析——基于协调度模型

房地产是房产与地产的综合体,住房市场与土地市场相互影响相互作用共同推进房地产市场的发展。住房与土地市场化以来,住房价格与土地价格的快速上涨使得人们普遍认为住房市场与土地市场发展不相协调,从而阻碍了房地产市场的健康发展。从采用协调度模型对全国及主要城市住房市场与土地市场的协调状况的评析来看,我国房地产市场与土地市场协调发展中尚存在着房地产市场调控不力,招拍挂制度导致地王频繁出现,地方政府对土地财政过度依赖等问题,亟待促进宏观调控政策的持续性,进一步完善土地出让制度,制定房地产税的区域推广规划。     

Real estate supports rapid development of China's urbanization

Urbanization is an important engine of modernization and economic growth, and appears to be an inevitable trend in human socioeconomic development around the world. However, China’s unusually rapid urbanization rate has attracted increasing attention. Our research suggests that understanding the country’s real estate market is the key to understanding the country’s rapid urbanization. The booming real estate market represents a major source of funding for urban infrastructure construction, and has accelerated the migration of rural residents to cities. We describe how four typical Chinese cities supported urbanization by promoting the development of different aspects of a real estate market to illustrate real estate’s role in Chinese urbanization, thereby providing examples and cautions for urbanization both in China and in other parts of the developing world.     

辽宁省不动产统一登记面临的土地登记问题与对策研究

土地登记是我国开展最早,覆盖最广的登记工作。规范的土地登记能够为当前不动产统一登记的顺利开展提供制度和信息基础。随着《不动产登记暂行条例》[1]的颁布实施,我国不动产统一登记工作正式进入了实施阶段,但辽宁省的不动产统一登记工作尚未全面启动。因此,根据《不动产登记暂行条例》提出的登记依据、登记机构、登记簿册、信息平台"四统一"的新要求,文章对辽宁省不动产统一登记面临的土地登记存在的问题进行研究。结果表明辽宁省土地登记尚存在部分登记依据不明确、土地登记机构不统一、登记簿的建设有待完善,信息技术水平有待提升的问题,建议从健全登记法规,完善登记业务管理制度,统一技术标准并定期汇总三方面逐步解决。该研究将为辽宁省不动产统一登记工作的顺利实施提供合理化建议,为不动产统一登记工作中的土地登记的规范化提供参考。     

株洲县商业地产项目可持续发展探究

随着住宅地产的竞争日益激烈,国家宏观调控力度加强,在新型城镇化和现代商贸服务业提质的背景下,小城镇已经成为商业地产开发商的新战场。株洲县作为长株潭城市群的南大门,对其商业地产发展进行研究具有代表意义。通过对市场调研和数据分析,探讨其发展态势,株洲县商业地产项目应当走明确战略定位、符合总体规划、坚持科学开发等可持续发展的路径。     

Exploring sentiment-driven trading behaviour of different types of investors in the London office market

We investigates the sentiment-driven trading behaviour of the four types of investors in the London office market, i.e. UK institutional investors, UK private investors, UK listed real estate companies/Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)s and overseas investors. In addition, we examine the relationship between investor sentiment and property performance. Related indices are calculated to examine the existence of herding behaviour of different investors. We find that UK private investors follow a contrarian strategy to UK institutional investors and listed real estate companies/REITs and enter/exit the market at different points of time. UK institutional investors tend to follow the sentiment of UK listed real estate companies/REITs and overseas investors with lags. There is no evidence that overseas investors rely upon the sentiment of UK specialised property investors in their decision-making. We find the sentiment of different investors is influenced differently by market fundamentals. Yield and rental growth rate have significant impact on trading activity of overseas investors, but not on other investors. The stock market return and securitised real estate return have significant impact on the trading activity of UK institutional investor and overseas investor, but have no significant influence on the trading behaviour of UK private investor and listed real estate company/REIT.     

房地产项目开发时机与土地闲置问题研究——基于34个大中城市面板数据的检验

研究目的:研究市场不确定性对房地产项目开发时机的影响,检验实物期权的关键假说,为破解土地闲置问题提供政策理论依据。研究方法:计量经济模型。研究结果:(1)市场不确定性每提高1个单位的标准差将使得房地产项目的开工量降低11.54%;(2)M2同比增速提高1个单位标准差,项目的开工量将增加7.20%;3个月央票利率提高1个单位的标准差,项目开工量将下降10.65%。研究结论:(1)市场不确定性的提高会显著延迟项目开发时机,验证了实物期权的关键假说,表明破解土地闲置问题,重在降低房价波动幅度。(2)政策因素对开发商投资决策有重要影响,间接地反映了货币政策对闲置土地调控的有效性。     

Methods and models for international comparative approaches to real estate development

Real estate development is a significant factor in planning the built environment. It shapes the way people live and work, and by doing so enables human activity to evolve. Real estate development forms a contemporary reflection of social, economic, environmental, and political forces at hand. Furthermore, due to globalization, we are increasingly witnessing similar trends for space despite institutional differences existing between countries and cities contained within their national borders. In this conceptual paper, we place a firm rationale towards international comparative real estate development study. Furthermore, we demonstrate current international comparative methods and a range of real estate development models, set against a new conceptual model in this field. It is put forward that this new model can be used within international comparative methods for study of real estate development both within and between national boundaries.     

中国房地产市场弱式有效性的实证研究

研究目的:实证分析中国房地产市场有效性的水平。研究方法:根据萨缪尔森和费马的市场有效性假设对中国房地产市场的有效性进行检验。采用自相关性分析、工具变量法求解联立方程、VAR模型等进行统计检验并对结果进行分析。研究结论:中国房地产市场尚未达到弱式有效。     

Time to completion in the Lagos commercial real estate market: an examination of institutional effects

This study explores how institutions affect the process of investment and the time it takes to buy and sell commercial property in Lagos, Nigeria. We isolate institutional factors that impact transaction efficiency and provide a snapshot of the process with average transaction times for the largest commercial real estate market in the most populous country in Africa. This study adopts a qualitative approach and relies on information collected from semi-structured interviews with 36 senior level individuals active in the Lagos commercial real estate market. Among our findings, we note the commercial real estate transaction process is divided into seven distinct stages and the average time to complete an acquisition across all stages (all property types) is 306 days. Title registration/perfection stage takes the longest time (around 132 days) and represents a significant risk to investors. We argue this is a consequence of imperfections in the formal institutions of title registration.     

跨国房地产投资的动因及其风险分析

随着经济全球化的不断深入以及新兴国家房地产业的火爆发展,房地产投资全球化发展的趋势将不可逆转。在当前国际经济一体化环境下,跨国房地产投资主要动因是扩大市场机会、追求高额收益和分散风险;总体来看,跨国房地产投资的风险:一是国家风险,二是市场风险,三是交易风险。文章指出新兴国家在保护国内房地产业和国民经济发展的宏观调控上,必须要引起足够的重视,并对新兴国家的宏观调控提出了两方面的建议。     

物业税与土地出让金不可替代性

物业税是不动产税的一种类型 ,土地出让金是土地的价款 ,二者属于性质不同的经济范畴 ,不能也不应相互替代。文章针对用物业税替代地价的主张 ,分别从土地资源配置市场化之要求、与新发展观之矛盾、廉政建设、现实可行性等方面 ,分析了以税代价的不可行性和危害性。并指出解决地价过高及其引发的房地产开发成本过高和房价过高的根本出路在于加快城市建设方面税费改革的步伐     

房地产税、地方公共支出对房价影响——全国及区域层面的面板数据分析

研究目的：分析中国房地产税、地方公共支出对房价的影响。研究方法：计量经济模型。研究结果：（1）中国房地产税对房价有抑制作用,而地方公共支出对房价有促进作用,两者对房价的净影响为正;（2）房地产税对房价影响存在显著的区域差异,且各房地产税种对房价影响不尽相同;（3）地方公共支出对房价的影响也存在显著的区域差异,东部地区大于中、西部地区。研究结论：（1）房地产税收和地方公共支出预算相互配套的政策组合能有效调控房地产市场。（2）中国房地产税对房价的调控能力不强,应改革现行的房地产税制,开征物业税。     

Real estate market efficiency

Summary

The application of modern portfolio theory to the investment in shares and bonds is integrally connected with the efficient market hypothesis. The requirement of multivariate normality of security returns is a sufficient condition for equilibrium asset pricing models such as the capital asset pricing model to theoretical work. Nevertheless the empirical relevance in decision making is firmly based on the efficiency of the capital market. If real estate investors are to avail themselves of these techniques it is first necessary to ensure the requirements of the efficient market hypothesis are satisfied in the context of the property market. This paper reports the results of such an inquiry into the British and Australian real estate markets.     

土地督察与开发商囤地：策略抉择的演化博弈

研究目的：探讨土地督察员与开发商囤地的博弈行为及其管制策略。研究方法：演化博弈论方法。研究结果：构建了土地督察员与开发商囤地的演化博弈模型,论证了不同情景下土地督察员与开发商囤地博弈的演化稳定策略及其演化趋势。研究结论：在房地产开发领域的土地利用管制上,既要合理引导开发商等主体的市场行为,还要约束地方政府、土地督察机构等“监管者”的督察行为,构建开发商与土地督察员互动的土地利用管制机制,提高土地督察制度绩效。     

房地产市场有效性研究综述

研究目的:综述房地产市场有效性的研究成果。研究方法:文献回顾法、归纳法。研究结论:有效性是市场研究的重要内容。自从市场有效性概念提出后,尤其是Fama将市场有效性分为三类后,关于市场有效性的实证检验渐多。但主要是集中在对金融市场有效性的研究上。国外对房地产市场有效性的研究主要是从投资角度进行的,研究主要集中在两个方面:一是对采用数据的研究;二是对某一市场的有效性进行检验。国内对市场有效性的研究历史很短,主要是运用已有的方法对中国资本市场有效性的研究。对房地产市场有效性的研究,多半将重点放在规范性研究上,主要集中在制度完善和发展趋势的定性研究上,对房地产市场有效性达到什么程度还没有正面的定量研究。     

基于主成分分析和德尔菲法的房地产投资环境综合评价体系

研究目的：选用22个主要省会城市的统计数据,确定合理的房地产投资环境评价指标,构建房地产投资环境综合评价体系。研究方法：主成分分析法和德尔菲法。研究结果：从城市宏观经济、房地产市场、基础设施和区位条件4方面初选房地产投资环境评价指标,利用主成分分析法对样本城市的投资环境优劣进行分析,剔除导致排序结果偏差的指标,避免了评价指标选择的盲目性;采用德尔菲法确定各指标权重,建立房地产投资环境的多指标综合评价公式,以此计算22个城市房地产投资环境的综合得分,其排名符合实际情况。研究结论：所构建的房地产投资环境综合评价体系具有较强的逻辑性,评价方法简洁高效,具有良好的应用价值。