Urban–rural income polarization and economic growth in China: evidence from the analysis of a dynamic panel data model

Using a dynamic panel data model and the system GMM, this article examines the relationship between urban–rural income polarization and economic growth at the provincial level in the period 1995 to 2010 in China. The estimated results and significant tests indicate that a certain degree of urban–rural income polarization is beneficial to economic growth at the provincial level in both stages for China as a whole, though the contribution of urban–rural income polarization to economic growth is relatively small. Aggravating urban–rural income polarization has a negative impact on economic growth in China. Based on a cluster analysis of regional economic growth at the provincial level, the authors carried out the same analysis separately for two categories of regions too. The results for those two categories of regions show that positive correlations also exist between urban–rural income polarization and economic growth in both stages, which are very similar to the analysis for the whole of China. In addition, a meaningful finding can be derived that the contribution of consumption growth rate to economic growth rate in the second stage is smaller than that in the first stage obviously.     

Institutions and the financial development–economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa

Using a sample splitting approach that does not impose an exogenous quadratic term, we examine the effect of financial development on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa by allowing the link to be mediated by the level of institutions. Our findings reveal a disproportionate growth-enhancing effect of finance, given countries’ distinct level of institutional quality. More specifically, when the International Country Risk Guide-based measure of institutions is used as the threshold variable, below the optimal level of institutional quality, financial development does not significantly promote economic growth. For countries with institutional quality above the threshold, higher finance is associated with growth. However, when institutions are measured by World Governance Indicators proxy, we find a significant effect of financial development, irrespective of whether a country is below or above the threshold. Interestingly, the growth-enhancing effect of finance is greater for low-institution countries relative to high-institution countries. Thus, through its ability to provide some crucial roles, the well-developed financial sector may also perform the function of sound institutions in influencing economic growth.     

Inflation and the finance–growth nexus

This paper re-investigates whether there exist inflation thresholds in the finance–growth linkage. By applying the Caner and Hansen's (2004) instrumental-variable threshold regression approach to the dataset of Levine et al. (2000), we find strong evidence of a nonlinear inflation threshold in the relationship, below which financial development exerts a significantly positive effect on economic growth, while, above which, the growth effect of finance appears to be insignificant. Furthermore, we also find a positive and significant relationship between finance and productivity for inflation rates below the threshold level, but no such relationship is detected for inflation rates above the critical level. This result suggests that finance influences growth mainly through the productivity channel.     

Privatization,FDI inflow and economic growth: evidence from China's provinces, 1978–2008

China's economic growth over 1978–2008 is a miracle. This article attempts to figure out and quantify the factors leading to this miracle. It is generally believed that economic reform and opening up is the key to China's economic success, but that is far from being exact and specific. This study hypothesizes that privatization and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow are the two key factors in this process. We focus on identifying the exact, specific and detailed mechanisms of privatization and FDI inflow in promoting economic growth, especially from the provincial level. Then using a panel data covering 31 provinces of Chinese mainland over 1978–2008, we find statistically significant evidence to support our hypotheses. We predict that further economic growth depends on further privatization and opening up, that is, depends on denationalization of the economy.     

Bubbles in US regional house prices: evidence from house price–income ratios at the State level

We investigate the presence of bubbles in the US house price-income ratio at the State level by applying the recent time series-based econometric test to data from January 1975 to December 2014. We find evidence of bubbles in several States in the 1980s (i.e. California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, etc.), which coincides with some existing studies that investigate housing bubbles or booms and busts using a range of alternative approaches. Our results show the existence of a housing bubble that originates in the early 2000s and collapses in the mid-2000s in more than 20 States and the District of Columbia concluding that the bubbles of the 2000s were more widespread than the 1980s, which is of special interest and importance. Our results seem to be in agreement with the talk given by Alan Greenspan in 2005, who suggest no sign of a nationwide housing bubble but a lot of local bubbles. We also study the importance of the regression model specification with/without an intercept and the regression model with an intercept could lead to false-positive identification of bubbles.     

Nonlinear dynamics and the exports–output growth nexus

The untested assumption of a linear relationship between exports and output growth in previous empirical investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in five industrialized economies (Canada, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US) with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results from linearity tests show that nonlinearities do exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.     

Homogeneous,heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption

This paper contrasts the performance of heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators versus the more traditional homogeneous panel data estimators. The analysis utilizes a panel data set from 21 French regions over the period 1973–1998 and a dynamic demand specification to study the gasoline demand in France. Out-of-sample forecast performance as well as the plausibility of the various estimators are contrasted.The authors would like to thank Jean-Loup Madre, Research Director at INRETS, for his assistance with obtaining the data set and the editor Robert M. Kunst and two referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Badi H. Baltagi would like to thank the Bush Program in Economics of Public Policy for its support. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the North American Summer Econometric Society Meetings at UCLA, June, 2002.     

Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests

The present study investigates the relationship between energy (renewable and nonrenewable) consumption and economic growth using Cobb–Douglas production function in case of Pakistan over the period of 1972–2011. We have used the ARDL bounds testing and Gregory and Hansen (1990) structural break cointegration approaches for long run while stationarity properties of the variables have been tested applying Clemente-Montanes-Reyes (1998) structural break unit root test.Our results confirm cointegration between renewable energy consumption, nonrenewable energy consumption, economic growth, capital and labor in case of Pakistan. The findings show that both renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption add in economic growth. Capital and labor are also important determinants of economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis validates the existence of feedback hypotheses between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth, economic growth and capital.     

Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.     

UK business cycle synchronization with Germany and the US: New evidence from time–frequency domain and structure of economic growth

This article uses a time–space approach to check the UK business cycle synchronization with Germany and the US. As a novelty, we consider the co-movements in terms of economic growth rate structure. In line with the existing studies, we discover that the UK business cycle is more synchronized with the US then with Germany, and that the co-movements have intensified lately. We also show that co-movements are reduced in terms of business cycle structure and are time–frequency-dependent. Finally, we point out that the UK business cycle became more synchronized with the US cycle given the contribution of investments and external balance to the real growth rate.     

Export–led growth and structural change: evidence from Malaysia

Many studies have tried to establish the causal link between export expansion and economic growth. This contribution is to recognize that structural changes will change the sources of growth and this will affect the export-growth relationship. A country case study approach is used focusing on Malaysia, a country with one of the world's highest sustained growth rates and a long history of commodity trade. We use VAR analysis of Malaysian quarterly trade and GDP growth from 1965 to 1996. Trade data are disaggregated into primary and manufactures exports and causality tests are applied to the entire period as well as two subperiods #150 the 1965 #1501980 period when policy emphasis was on import substitution and the 1981#1501996 period when policies favoured export-led growth. Statistical tests confirm export-led growth for the full period and for the period to 1980 but tests on the 1981#1501996 period show growth causing exports. Primary exports had a stronger direct impact on economic growth than manufactures. The weakening support for export-led growth after Malaysia shifted to an export-oriented development strategy is associated with structural changes associated with industrialization. Interaction among trade and growth variables becomes more complex with a broadening export base and more diverse sources of growth.     

Financialization and the rentier income share – evidence from the USA and Germany

During the past two decades, there has been a shift of significance from the real to the financial sector. In the course of (financial) globalization, measures of liberalization and deregulation have contributed to a strengthening of financial capital. The concept of shareholder value orientation has become more powerful, capital income has increased tremendously, while real wages have stagnated. Most industrial countries have experienced a decline in the share of labor income. Based on a review of empirics and literature, this paper seeks to determine who gained from the fall in the labor share of income in the USA and Germany, respectively. If financialization is indeed responsible for the decline, rentiers should be the beneficiaries. In order to identify the relevant effects, the profit share of the two countries under observation is split between the share of retained earnings and the share of net property income (= rentiers’ income) using a modification of the approach chosen by Epstein and Jayadev (2005 Epstein, G. and Jayadev, A. 2005. “The rise of rentier incomes in OECD countries: Financialization, central bank policy and labor solidarity”. In Financialization and the world economy, Edited by: Epstein, G. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.  [Google Scholar]). The evidence presented shows that the development of the rentier income share indeed corresponds quite well with the stages of development of financialization in the two different countries: in the US, where the important shift towards financialization occurred in the early 1980s, the rentiers’ share of income shows a corresponding leap upwards exactly at that time and remains on a higher level until the end of the observation period. In Germany, the process of financialization started much later – in the beginning of the 1990s – and followed a much more gradual transition, which is perfectly mirrored by the development of income shares: from the 1990s onwards, the rentiers’ income share gradually increased over time.     

The effect of financial development on economic growth: evidence from the APEC countries, 1981–2000

Using the modified growth model, this study examines whether financial development would facilitate economic growth among the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries from 1981 to 2000. It focuses on the effects of three aspects of financial development on growth: stock market, banking sector and capital flow. To control for the country-specific effect, the model is further estimated for the developed and developing member countries. Results suggest that among the three financial sectors, only the stock market development shows strong growth-enhancing effect, especially among the developed member countries. This positive relationship remains very robust even after controlling for the simultaneity bias. Thus, there is no evidence to suggest that the level of financial infrastructure development does affect the overall finance–growth relationship observed in this study.     

A smooth coefficient quantile regression approach to the social capital–economic growth nexus

This analysis assesses the role of social capital in generating heterogeneity in growth processes across U.S. counties by estimating growth regressions, using the novel semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile regression method in which parameters are unspecified functions of a measure of social capital. The results indicate substantial differences across the quantiles of economic growth in the profile shapes of the coefficient estimates over the level of social capital. Moreover, the coefficient function estimates are highly nonlinear over the level of social capital, providing evidence that the growth process that links initial income, education attainment, ethnic diversity, inequality, population density, and government activity to growth varies with social capital in a nonlinear way.     

Do oil consumption and economic growth intensify environmental degradation? Evidence from developing economies

The purpose of this article is to empirically investigate the impact of economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization and trade openness on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, particularly in relation to major oil-consuming developing economies. This study utilizes annual data from 1980 to 2012 on a panel of 18 developing countries. Our empirical analysis employs robust panel cointegration tests and a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. The empirical results of three panel cointegration models suggest that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization, trade openness and CO₂ emissions. Similarly, results from VECMs show that economic growth, oil consumption and industrialization have a short-run dynamic bidirectional feedback relationship with CO₂ emissions. Long-run (error-correction term) bidirectional causalities are found among CO₂ emissions, economic growth, oil consumption, financial development and trade openness. Our results confirm that economic growth and oil consumption have a significant impact on the CO₂ emissions in developing economies. Hence, the findings of this study have important policy implications for mitigating CO₂ emissions and offering sustainable economic development.     

Analysis on the disparity in economic growth and consumption between urban sector and rural sector of China: 1978–2008

This paper designs a theoretical model of excess per-capita income growth and brings forward such indices as excess per-capita income, per-capita base consumption and decreasing factor as well as the corresponding measurement methods. It studies from a brand new aspect the disparity between the economic growth in urban sector and rural sector of China in the past 30 years after the reform and opening-up, together with the disparity between the effects of such growth on consumption. The research results show that: At present the problem of the duality of urban and rural sector of China is still serious; the impaired amount of economic growth in urban sector is larger than that in rural sector while the impairing strength in rural sector is higher than that in urban sector; and it is vital to increase the excess per-capita investment in rural sector in order to effectively strengthen consumption related policies. Therefore, promoting urbanization but reasonably controlling the urbanization progress while strengthening the infrastructure construction in rural areas would be the efficient approach to reduce the impairing strength over the economic growth, to build up consumption market, to improve the duality of economy and to realize sustainable development.     

Does the relationship between income and child health differ across income groups? Evidence from India

This study explores the relationship between child health and socioeconomic status (health-income gradient) using the Indian Human Development Survey-II (2011-12) for children up to 5 years of age. Unlike previous studies our empirical analysis allows the gradient to vary across different income intervals using linear and cubic spline regressions. We use objective measure of child health - height-for-age Z-scores and find that an increase in income, on an average leads to reduction in prevalence of stunting. We also find differential effect of income on health across the income distribution with no effect of income on child health for very poor households. Further we explore underlying factors explaining the gradient and find that maternal health, housing quality, sanitation, non-infectious environment, media exposure to women and a safe neighbourhood are transmission channels that affect child health and together they explain almost 40% of the overall income effect. One of the major implication of our findings is that any policy to increase income of poor households should be complemented with a health policy designed specifically towards children as poor households are less likely to allocate additional income to child health.     

The tax–spending nexus: evidence from Romania using wavelet analysis

This article investigates the relationship between government revenue and expenditure in Romania between 1991 and 2015 using the wavelet approach. The article presents detailed information for different sub-periods and frequencies, emphasising the lead–lag nexus between variables under cyclical and anti-cyclical shocks. The main findings show that using individual taxation techniques under structural reforms should control short-term budget deficits. Separately, when an economic crisis arises, expenditure adjustment is a more appropriate fiscal instrument. In the medium and long term, the taxation system for individuals is recommended to be used to control for budgetary deficits during crisis. At the same time, in the medium term, government expenditures also represent a suitable policy choice.     

Revisiting the finance–growth nexus: the Turkish case, 1980–2010

In Turkey, the empirical results on the link between financial development and economic growth are mixed. The existing studies do not take into account the fact that Turkey has experienced endemic political and economic instabilities over extended periods. This study aims to analyse the role of macroeconomic instability and public borrowing on the finance–growth nexus in Turkey by using time series econometric techniques over the 1980–2010 period. In doing so, we attempt to extend the existing literature by taking into account the role of macroeconomic instability as well as public borrowing. Our results reveal that there are additional – albeit indirect – channels between finance and growth via the effects of macro instability and public borrowing on financial development and economic growth. After taking into account the effects of overall instability and public borrowing, we found that growth–financial development relationship is bidirectional and permanent. In other words, in Turkish case, economic growth and financial development are jointly determined. Thus, our results shed some light on the ambiguity of the evidence on the link between financial development and economic growth for Turkey.     

Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests

This study is an attempt to test the long run relationship between international tourism and economic growth of Pakistan by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models over the period of 1972 to 2011. The initial results show that the causality runs from tourism to economic growth. Furthermore, the estimated growth regression clearly indicates that the international tourism has a significantly positive impact on the economic growth of Pakistan along with other variables like physical capital and international trade. This implies that the improvement in the tourism sector may enhance the economic growth activities in Pakistan.