Is good news for Donald Trump bad news for the Peso?

We study the relationship between Mr. Trump’s election prospects and the US dollar-peso exchange rate, controlling for other factors that determine overall exchange rates. Increases in Mr. Trump’s probability of winning generate short-run, but statistically significant economically meaningful, disturbances in the US dollar-peso exchange rate. We also provide evidence on Mr. Trump’s effects on Mexican equity markets, premia for Mexican sovereign default risks, exchange rate volatility.     

Is polarization bad?

The adverse effects of political and social polarization on government policies are empirically well documented, yet some democracies seem to cope well or even benefit from diversity. In this paper we develop a theoretical model to show how elections in polarized societies contribute to improve quality of government. We consider both polarization among citizens and political actors (political polarization), where the second is endogenously determined by parties competing to win the support of the majority of voters. We find that more heterogeneous societies are more likely to be politically polarized, but that the divergence of positions in the political arena helps the electorate control government corruption by raising electoral stakes. Our results, which are consistent with the findings of a substantial empirical literature, suggest that, when funneled into political competition, polarization may help improving quality of government and policies.     

Is environmental regulation bad for competition? A survey

Theoretical and empirical research points to environmental regulation affecting the vigour of competition in product markets. We provide a critical, selective survey of that research. Environmental regulations can advantage large firms over small and raise concentration. They can discourage entry in their own right, and provide instruments with which incumbents can discourage entry strategically. They can provide the basis for predatory behavior by incumbents. Policy governance needs to be coordinated sufficiently to ensure that these secondary effects are accounted for in policy design. Cost-benefit evaluation of environmental policies that fail to account for likely detrimental impacts on product market competition will overstate the net benefits. This survey is a heavily-revised version of a discussion paper that the author wrote for presentation to a meeting of the OECD Competition Committee in June 2006 (OECD 2006). The support of OECD in the writing of that paper is gratefully acknowledged. Thanks also to Nick Johnstone, Jean-Phillipe Barde, Jeremy West, Sandeep Kapur, Michael Crew and an anonymous referee from this journal for helpful comments on earlier versions. All views expressed are those of the author alone.     

Gold dinar for the Islamic countries?

The Malaysian state of Kelantan has made a historical launch of Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham on 12th August 2010. For the first time in almost 100 years since the fall of the Ottoman Caliphate, a Muslim government introduces Shariah currency. In the eyes of many Muslim scholars, the present interest-based fiat monetary system is flawed as it is incompatible with the objectives of the Islamic law or the Shariah. There have been calls for the resurgence of Islamic Gold Dinar (together with the silver dirham) as it is deemed to be the most appropriate medium of exchange to be used in the Islamic economies. Using data from 1970 to 2007, this paper assesses the empirical desirability of the Organization of Islamic Conferences (OIC) countries to an alternative monetary system (Islamic Gold Dinar) that can potentially enhance the exchange rate stability and credibility. The Structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) method is employed to assess the nature of macroeconomic disturbances among the OIC countries. Specifically, the symmetry in macroeconomic disturbances of the OIC economies is examined as satisfying one of the preconditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). In addition, this paper also investigates the output and price responses of OIC countries of the underlying structural shocks used to shed light on the suitability of these countries to form a monetary union. The preliminary findings of this study suggest the lack of broad linkages within the entire OIC, although there exists scope among some smaller clusters for potential monetary integration based on the symmetry of their business cycles.     

Bilateral foreign aid: how important is aid effectiveness to people for choosing countries to support?

We conduct a discrete choice experiment to determine how important aid effectiveness is to people relative to other criteria for choosing countries to support with bilateral foreign aid. We find that aid effectiveness is important, on a par with recipient-country need as proxied by the level of hunger and malnutrition. Both criteria are more important than others.     

Is inequality the price to pay for higher growth in middle-income countries?

An evolutionary two-sector model is used to study the impact of skill-biased technological change on the growth and inequality paths of a middle-income developing economy. We present four scenarios resulting from changes in a country’s structural conditions and the characteristics of the shock. We show that wage inequality is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for growth. A Kuznets dynamic may emerge in the long run in the case of successful catching-up to the high-growth steady state. However, this only happens if adjustment costs significantly hamper the process of skill upgrade. The business cycle and the process of structural change may give rise to sizeable rises in wage inequality in the short term, even when the economy does not break out from the low-growth steady state.     

International aid from the recipient perspective: public or private good input assistance?

This article proposes a theoretical model from the recipient perspective that considers what type of assistance a donor country should provide: public good assistance or private good assistance. We investigate the effects of migration and free riders under both types of assistance. We empirically apply this model to the rapidly growing economies and a large official development assistance disbursement for East Asia.     

Is aid for trade effective? A panel quantile regression approach

This paper investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) leads to greater exports in recipient countries. Using panel quantile regression and two strategies to address endogeneity (AfT lagged by two periods and dynamic OLS), our results suggest that total AfT disbursements promote the export of goods and services mainly for the lower quantiles (0.1, 0.25, 0.50) of the conditional distribution of exports. Hence, countries that export less in volume are those benefitting most from AfT. This effect is mainly driven by the impact on exports of goods rather than on that of services. We also investigate which types of AfT are effective when endogeneity is controlled for. The main results show that whereas aid to improve trade policy and regulation is associated with higher exports for all quantiles, aid used to build infrastructure is found to affect exports at only the lowest tails of the distribution (0.10–0.35) and aid to build productive capacity is generally more effective for the lower quantiles of the export distribution (0.10–0.50). In contrast, aid disbursed for general budget support (an untargeted type of aid) is not associated with greater export levels. This finding holds irrespective of the quantile.     

Donor–recipient ideological differences and economic aid

We explore the impact of donor–recipient ideological differences on US economic aid decisions. We find that the odds and the amount of aid to left-wing recipients are higher under left-wing US administrations. The opposite result is found for center-right recipients.     

Is inequality harmful for the environment? An empirical analysis applied to developing and transition countries

The object of this article is to examine the relation between social inequalities and pollution. First of all we provide a survey demonstrating that, from a theoretical point of view, a decrease in inequality has an uncertain impact on the environment. Second, on the basis of these conceptual considerations, we propose an econometric analysis based on panel data (fixed-effects and dynamic panel data models) concerning developing and transition countries for the 1988-2003 period. We examine specifically the effect of inequality on the extent of local pollution (sulphur dioxide emissions and organic water pollution) by integrating the Gini index into the formulation of the environmental Kuznets' curve.     

Is R&D always growth-enhancing? Empirical evidence from the EU countries

This study provides empirical evidence regarding the effects of R&D on economic growth in a panel of 28 European Union (EU) countries over the period 1997–2014. In particular, we investigate whether the impact of business and government R&D stocks on economic growth depends on the country’s distance to the world technology frontier. The main findings are that in the EU (i) there is positive, statistically significant business R&D stock–economic growth nexus in countries that are relatively close to the frontier and (ii) no statistically significant relationship was found to exist between government R&D stock and economic growth. From the policy perspective, the results suggest that designing proper national policies that allow switching from investment-based to innovation-based strategies at appropriate moments may be far more important than a simple call for increase in R&D expenditures and setting common numerical targets for all EU-member states.     

Is unemployment good for the environment?

Environmental quality is a public good, potentially impacted by everybody. Individual level pro-environmental behavior affects environmental quality in the aggregate. Therefore, it is important to understand what causes individual’s pro-environmental behaviors to change. We quantify the causal effect of one determinant, unemployment, using an EU-27 population representative Eurobarometer survey. Drawing on results from the theory of the private provision of public goods, and recognizing that unemployment decreases income and the opportunity cost of time, we formulate testable predictions that unemployment will decrease the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that require monetary contributions and increase the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that mainly require time/effort. Instrumental variables regressions provide empirical evidence to support these hypotheses. Changes in the unemployment rate within a sub-national region provide the exogenous variation needed to identify the causal effect. Several supplemental questions on the survey provide evidence that environmental issues lose saliency and economic issues gain saliency when one becomes unemployed, suggesting that interested parties may wish to emphasize cost savings of pro-environmental behavior rather than environmental benefits during times of increased unemployment.     

Is economic growth for the birds?

The environment provides ecosystem services that support human wants. Economic growth is important for raising human living standards. But whether economic growth benefits the environment is unclear. Research into this relationship has focused on a U-shaped association known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). As economies grow, environmental quality initially declines but ultimately recovers and improves. However, environmental quality has been narrowly defined in the research, largely neglecting the availability and range of ecosystem services. Because these services derive from biodiversity, we use avian biodiversity as a proxy for environmental quality. Our results replace the U-shaped relationship with a lazy-S relationship. As economies grow, environmental quality initially declines, then improves over intermediate growth, but ultimately declines at higher growth. The EKC hypothesis has been used to forward economic growth as a means for improving environment quality. Our results call into question policies that rely solely on economic growth for reversing environmental decline.     

Is low-priced primary care bad for quality? Evidence from Australian general practice

We examine whether patients’ perceptions of general practitioner (GP) care varies by the price paid for consultations. Australian consumer survey data from 2275 individuals were used to analyse the relationship between price and patient experience of GP care. Using both standard models for count data and a latent class model that distinguishes between patients with high- and low-quality experiences, we find no evidence that lower prices have a negative impact on patients’ perceptions of GP quality. Nevertheless, some patient characteristics such as age, gender and health status play a significant role in quality-of-care perceptions. The results show that Australian patients have not had to compromise GP quality, as expressed in terms of patient experience, when seeking low-priced care. This supports the view that there are sufficient checks and balances on the GP sector in Australia to ensure positive patient experiences even for low-cost GP consultations.     

Is inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate more effective for attracting FDI into developing countries?

This article investigates which monetary policy regime – inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate – is more effective for attracting FDI inflows into developing countries. Using propensity score matching and the difference-in-differences estimator, we find no evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime would be more effective than adopting a fixed exchange rate, and vice versa, in encouraging FDI inflows.     

Are the BRIC countries overtaking intermediate countries in the race for international R&D? The case of Spain

The emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) as international locations for foreign direct investment in R&D is a sign that multinationals are relocating their technological activities to new territories. This trend may weaken the supremacy of the developed countries until now considered leaders in innovation, and may mean the loss of the competitive advantages enjoyed by the countries considered intermediate innovators. This paper examines the situation of Spain as a typical intermediate economy and compares it to its main competitors among the BRICs. Based on eight case studies of subsidiaries with R&D centres in Spain, we conclude that the policies adopted by certain emerging economies to develop their national innovation systems are proving effective and that these countries now pose a threat to intermediate economies. However, the BRICs still lag behind in terms of the security of their institutional framework; this situation leaves intermediate countries in an advantageous position.     

Is Environmental Protection Beneficial for the Environment?

We analyze a simple endogenous growth model with environmental interactions. Economic production generates emissions of pollutants whose environmental impact is mitigated by abatement activities financed by government expenditure; environmental quality affects preferences but does not play any productive role. We show that government intervention, by reallocating resources from capital accumulation to environmental preservation activities, allows the economy to achieve a sustainable balanced growth path. Along such a path, softer environmental policy regimes lead to win–win outcomes, fostering economic growth and improving environmental quality. Such a result needs to be interpreted as a long run outcome, but it clearly shows that the compatibility between economic growth and environmental improvement is far from automatic. Indeed, in the long run it could paradoxically be the case that both the economy and the environment benefit from low levels of environmental protection.     

Is bioenergy trade good for the environment?

We analyze the impacts of bioenergy trade on greenhouse gas emissions using a two-good, three-factor model. Bioenergy is an agricultural good used as a substitute for fossil fuels in industry. Governments tax domestic pollution without international coordination. We assume that northern countries have higher labor productivity than southern ones and that agriculture is less pollution intensive than industry (after taxation). We show that whereas southern countries impose a lower tax rate than northern ones, they do not necessary have a competitive advantage in industry, and that compared to autarky, trade liberalization either increases or decreases worldwide emissions depending on regional comparative advantages.     

Back to the future. Is industry 4.0 a new tecno-organizational paradigm? Implications for Latin American countries

ABSTRACT

The objective of this article is to establish a dialogue between the recent ‘Industry 4.0’ (I4.0) literature and evolutionary neo-Schumpeterean studies about techno-organizational paradigms. In that direction, we wonder whether I4.0 constitutes a new paradigm, as it is assumed by the first group of literature, or it represents – until the moment – an intensification of key features of the information and communication technology (ICT) paradigm, following the second group of studies. Some questions are raised about the implications of I4.0 for developing countries (DEC), afterwards. Specifically, we reflect on the possibilities of these countries to identify and take advantage of new windows of opportunity, opened by the development and diffusion of these technologies. In this regard, the review of recent Latin American experience raises strong concerns regarding I4.0 as a new source of intra- and international heterogeneity, linked to the severe difficulties these countries have in appropriating these technologies in the form of productivity gains and quasi-rents. It seems that this is partially derived from weak technological, organizational, and connectivity capabilities paths of accumulation between institutions and actors.