Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis

Climate policy choices are influenced by the economics literature which analyses the costs and benefits of alternative strategies for climate action. This literature, in turn, rests on a series of choices about: the values and assumptions underlying the economic analysis; the methodologies for treating dynamics, technological change, risk and uncertainty; and the assumed interactions between economic systems, society and the environment, including institutional constraints on climate policy. We identify and discuss such critical issues, pushing at the boundaries of current climate economics research. New thinking in this area is gathering pace in response to the limitations of traditional economic approaches, and their assumptions on economic behaviour, ecological properties, and socio-technical responses. We place a particular emphasis on the role of induced technological change and institutional setups in shaping cost-effective climate action that also promotes economic development and the alleviation of poverty.     

气候变化经济学和气候政策

在气候变化经济学和气候政策的文献综述基础上,剖析了经济学原理在全球气候变化研究中的应用。在总结西方流行的气候变化的经济影响评估、预测、分析方法和模型的前提下,回顾了不同空间和时间尺度上温室气体减排成本估算的方法和结果,特别分析和强调了气候变化不确定性的特点对经济模型和政策设计的影响,提供了有效的基于市场的政策选择。     

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO₂ price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO₂ price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented.     

An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America

This paper provides an analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South American farms. Unlike other studies of adaptation, this paper examines the differences between private irrigation and public irrigation schemes based on around 1400 farm surveys collected across seven countries in South America which recorded detailed water schemes. We analyze the choice of water schemes in the first stage and the land values for each scheme in the second stage. We find that public irrigations do not increase in response to a warmer climate, but private irrigations do. On the other hand, we find that public irrigation schemes are provided primarily as a response to water scarcity. Moreover, we find that private irrigations are taken gradually while public irrigations are provided as a lump sum, resulting in either too much or too little provision. Therefore, public adaptations to climate change will likely involve two inefficiencies. No provision of irrigation in a hotter climate may result from a lack of knowledge. Overprovision of irrigation in dry zones may result from a lump-sum provision of a public good.     

中国货币经济波动的一般均衡分析

文章构建了一个动态随机一般均衡的模型,从理论和实证两个方面分析了中国货币经济的波动问题.实证结果表明我国经济中货币余额的波动更多地源于消费者货币需求的波动,投资的波动与货币余额的波动关联不大,因此不能简单地以货币余额的变化来判断投资的状况.投资波动、经济增长波动与消费波动存在背离现象,投资造成大量的成本,这是我国经济非均衡的主要表现.文章的结论支持当前的宏观经济调控政策.     

An interdisciplinary approach to applied policy analysis

Applied policy analysis has become an acceptable research activity for professional political scientists to the benefit of both the discipline of political science and society. Despite its long history as a social science research activity and the current popularity and widespread interest in this kind of research, there is no commonly agreed to theory of and/or approach to applied policy analysis. This article describes an interdisciplinary team approach developed and applied by the Science and Public Policy Program at the University of Oklahoma during the past 8 years. The approach consists of four principal components or conceptual elements: a general conceptual framework for technology assessment (a particular kind of applied policy study), an interdisciplinary team, the active involvement of numerous outside experts and stakeholders, and an issue–systems policy analysis framework. The conclusion reached is that, while the pitfalls identified by critics of applied policy analysis should be treated seriously, applied policy analysis can contribute to the development of the discipline while benefiting society.     

Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe

This paper concerns optimal emissions of greenhouse gases when catastrophic consequences are possible. A numerical model is presented, which takes into account both continuous climate-feedback damages as well as the possibility of a catastrophic outcome. The possibility of a climate catastrophe is a major argument for greenhouse gas abatement even in absence of continuous damage. Special attention is given to the subjective probability of a catastrophe and the pure rate of time preferences, and implicit values of these parameters are calculated if an emissions stabilisation target is assumed optimal. Finally, the expected value of perfect information about the probability of a catastrophe is estimated.     

新能源消费与我国经济增长关系的实证研究

新能源对于我国经济发展具有重要意义。以1991~2014年数据为样本通过实证分析发现:新能源消费的增长对我国经济增长具有正向作用,同时经济增长也会促进新能源消费的增长,两者存在动态的双向关系。因此,应高度重视新能源消费对经济增长的拉动作用,优化新能源经济政策及外部环境;加大新能源研发力度,提升新能源的持久性和稳定性;加大新能源行业监管力度,依法打击骗取新能源补贴行为;综合开发多种新能源,提升新能源的多样性和丰富性。     

The effects of monetary policy using structural factor analysis

The traditional Vector Autoregression (VAR) method is widely used to trace out the effects of monetary policy innovations on the economy. However, this method suffers from the curse of dimensionality, so that in practice VARs are estimated on a limited number of variables, leading to a potential missing information problem. In this article we use the method of structural factor analysis to evaluate the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. This methodology allows us to extract information on monetary policy and its impact on the economy from a much larger data set than is possible with the traditional VAR method. We propose two structural factor models. One is the Structural Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the Structural Factor Vector Autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional VAR, both models incorporate information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the central bank in setting policy. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the ‘black box’ of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. For the SFVAR model, both the price puzzle and the liquidity puzzle are eliminated.     

加入WTO对我国吸收外商直接投资的影响

２０００年我国吸收外商直接投资取得了恢复性增长,全年合同外资金额６２６．６亿美元,同比增长５０．８％;实际使用外资金额４０７．３亿美元,同比增长０．９％。２００１年１月合同外资金额和实际利用外资金额分别同比增长４８％和对％。这预示着我国利用外资在摆脱亚洲金融危机影响后将进入一个新的上升轨道。 加入ＷＴＯ对我国吸收外资的正面影响将大于负面影响,有利于我国扩大吸收外资规模。“九五”期间我国吸收外商直接投资规模年均约４２５亿美元,“十五”期间吸收外商直接投资额将比上５年有较大幅度增长,年均吸收外商直接…     

产业政策强度对产业发展影响的模型分析

产业政策是世界各国普遍采取的经济政策。产业政策的强弱程度与产业发展之间存在密切的关系,本文以Volterra的食饵-捕食者模型说明了,在产业发展的扩展期,应尽量减少产业政策对产业发展的干预强度,使产业内各企业充分展开竞争,促进强势企业的发展,竞争性产业政策有助于产业竞争力的提升,促进产业的健康发展。     

Pollution havens: international empirical evidence using a shadow price measure of climate policy stringency

Given the ambiguous empirical results of previous research, this paper tests whether support for a climate policy-induced pollution haven effect and the pollution haven hypothesis can be found. Unlike the majority of previous studies, the analysis is based on international panel data and includes several methodological novelties: By arguing that trade flows of dirty goods to less dirty sectors may also be influenced by changes in policy stringency, trade information on primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors are included. In order to clearly differentiate between dirty sectors and sectors with high pollution abatement costs, separate measures for pollution intensity and policy stringency are implemented. For the former, two intensities, namely the sectors’ carbon dioxide emission intensity and the emission relevant energy intensity, are used to identify dirty sectors. For the latter, an internationally comparable, sector-specific measure of climate policy stringency is derived by applying a shadow price approach. Potential endogeneity between climate policy stringency, trade openness and the trade balance is controlled for by employing a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimator. The results provide evidence for a pollution haven effect that is also present for non-dirty sectors, i.e., a sector’s net imports rise in general if the sector faces an increase in climate policy stringency. Moreover, a stronger pollution haven effect regarding carbon dioxide intensive and emission relevant energy-intensive sectors is revealed. However, no support for the stronger pollution haven hypothesis can be found.     

中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究

本文研究了中国地方官员的治理模式——"晋升锦标赛治理模式"的性质与特征,并试图揭示这种特定模式与中国高速经济增长及其各种特有问题的内在关联。本文认为,晋升锦标赛作为中国政府官员的激励模式,它是中国经济奇迹的重要根源,但由于晋升锦标赛自身的一些缺陷,尤其是其激励官员的目标与政府职能的合理设计之间存在严重冲突,它目前正面临着重要的转型。     

Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model

This paper builds a structural VARMA (SVARMA) model for investigating Canadian monetary policy. Using the scalar component methodology proposed by Athanasopoulos and Vahid (2008a), we first identify a VARMA model and then construct a SVARMA for Canadian monetary policy. Relative to the responses by a structural VAR, the responses generated by the SVARMA are consistent with those supported by various theoretical models and solve economic puzzles commonly found in the empirical literature on monetary policy. The superior out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of the reduced form VARMA compared to VAR alternatives further advocates the suitability of this framework for small open economies.     

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (i) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (ii) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (iii) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement.     

An analysis of entry-then-privatization model: welfare and policy implications

This study formulates a new model of mixed oligopolies in free entry markets. A state-owned public enterprise is established before the game, private enterprises enter the market, and then the government chooses the degree of privatization of the public enterprise (termed the entry-then-privatization model herein). We find that under general demand and cost functions, the timing of privatization does not affect consumer surplus or the output of each private firm, while it does affect the equilibrium degree of privatization, number of entering firms, and output of the public firm. The equilibrium degree of privatization is too high (low) for both domestic and world welfare if private firms are domestic (foreign).     

中国低碳能源的发展方向

发展低碳能源是领先世界经济的新机遇。能源低碳化是全球趋势,也是中国的目标,中国发展低碳能源的意义重大。实现低碳化的、有序的能源结构是中国能源战略定位的根本。中国低碳能源发展的战略重点在于：大力发展分布式能源系统;重点加强建筑、交通两大消耗领域低碳能源利用;尽最大可能促进生物质能源的有效利用;全方位推进太阳能、风能、水能和核能的安全利用等等。     

中国能源生产率增长中的结构变动——基于Shift-Share方法的分析

本文应用Shift-Share方法对近年来中国能源生产率变动状况在地区和产业层次上进行要素分解分析,研究表明,不管是在地区能源配置还是在部门能源配置中,效率因素始终是总体能效变动的决定性因素,结构因素作用较小。研究还发现,中国能源效率的变动受需求因素影响较大,这反映了国民经济运行中增长方式粗放等深层次矛盾。因此,针对中国能源经济发展的实际,应努力降低各产业部门的能源消耗强度,提高各部门特别是工业部门的技术创新能力,发展科技含量高、能耗小的新型产业,提高经济运行整体质量,立足长远目标,调整产业结构。     

哈萨克斯坦的油气投资环境

哈萨克斯坦位于亚洲中部,北邻俄罗斯,南与乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦接壤,西濒里海,东接中国,总面积271.73万平方公里,人口1506万,是中亚五国中面积最大的国家.哈萨克斯坦是个多民族国家,全国共有130多个民族,哈萨克族人数最多(占53.4%),主要信奉伊斯兰教.哈萨克语为国语,俄语在国家机关和地方自治机关与哈语同为正式使用的语言.首都阿斯塔那是哈萨克斯坦的政治中心,是哈国主要的工农业生产基地,是全国铁路交通枢纽.