Finance and employment: Evidence from U.S. banking reforms

Economic theory offers competing hypotheses about how the cost and availability of finance influence labor market outcomes. Making use of the U.S. banking reforms between the 1970s and the 1990s as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper studies the impact of credit market development on employment. This paper documents the significant effects of these reforms on employment growth. Potential channels between finance and employment are also investigated. Changes in the growth of the number of self-employed individuals, the entry and exit of firms, and investment growth do not explain most of the employment growth following the reforms. The reforms had a substantially higher impact in industries with higher labor intensity, which is consistent with the idea that labor has fixed costs that need to be financed.     

新兴市场电子交易平台对货币政策操作的支持

在俄罗斯等新兴转轨国家,金融交易平台在发挥组织市场交易,实现资源配置、价格发现、风险管理等职能的同时,还承担着辅助货币政策操作与传导等宏观金融管理功能,成为金融改革的见证者和推动者。文章从新兴市场上金融电子交易平台与货币当局的历史和现实联系出发,考察电子交易平台支持货币政策操作的宏观功能。     

Monetary Equilibrium and the Cost of Banking Activity

We investigate the effects of banks' operating costs on allocations and welfare in a low interest rate environment. We introduce an explicit production function for banks in a microfounded model where banks employ labor resources, hired on a competitive market, to run their operations. In equilibrium, this generates a spread between interest rates on loans and deposits, which reflects the underlying monetary policy and the efficiency of financial intermediation. In a deflation or low-inflation environment, equilibrium deposits yield zero returns. Hence, banks soak up labor resources to offer deposits that do not outperform idle balances, thus reducing aggregate efficiency.     

劳动力市场性别差距、生产结构转型与人口增长转变

本文从劳动力市场性别差距视角为理解生产结构转型与人口增长转变的互动关系提出了新的理论机制。以脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重提高为特征的生产结构转型将缩小性别工资差距，提高家庭生育养育机会成本并降低生育率，进而增加女性劳动相对供给，这又会进一步提高脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重。直接干预女性劳动定价政策可能会带来女性结构性失业，反而扩大劳动力市场性别差距，且不利于生产结构转型；单方面降低女性生育养育成本政策虽然能够提高生育率，但也可能产生类似不利影响；降低男性生育养育成本政策既可以提高生育率，又可以缩小劳动力市场性别差距，并促进生产结构转型；生育养育成本补贴支出由政府承担的影响比由企业承担更为温和。本文结果表明，促进人口长期均衡发展的政策应与缩小劳动力市场性别差距、推动生产结构转型的政策统筹谋划和协调推进。本文研究为“优化人口发展战略，建立生育支持政策体系”提供了一定的理论依据和参考。     

Monetary policy and distribution

A segmented markets model of monetary policy is constructed, in which a novel feature is goods market segmentation, and its relationship to conventional asset market segmentation. The implications of the model for the response of prices, interest rates, consumption, labor supply, and output to monetary policy are determined. As well, optimal monetary policy is studied, as are the costs of inflation. The model features persistent nonneutralities of money, relative price effects of increases in the money supply, persistent liquidity effects, and a negative Fisher effect from a money supply increase. A Friedman rule is in general suboptimal.     

Structural reforms in a debt overhang

The effects of reforms in product and labor markets are assessed in an economy where credit restrictions and long-term debt combine to produce a persistent recession with slow deleveraging following a negative financial shock. We show that product market reforms stimulate output and employment even in the short run, despite their deflationary effects. By favoring a faster recovery of investment and collateral values, such reforms bring forward the end of the deleveraging phase. This channel is missing in the case of labor market reforms, which have more modest effects on economic activity.     

行业特征、金融加速与企业债务融资

在政策择优供给、产业转型升级的关键阶段,考察特定行业的企业债务融资及其宏观、微观层面的影响因素,对于资金、资源的行业优化配置意义重大。本文以我国2003~2017年沪深A股上市公司为样本,检验企业受到货币政策冲击时行业特征对其银行债务获取的影响。研究发现,对于行业劳动力越密集、行业竞争越激烈的企业,货币政策紧缩对于债务融资的不利影响会被显著削弱。进一步研究发现,行业劳动要素在货币政策紧缩时引起的企业债务融资效应随着行业资本密集度的下降而增强;对于产出是耐用品的行业,货币政策的企业债务融资效应与产品市场竞争较弱的行业一致。本文是对货币政策传导机制下金融加速分析的拓展,补充了货币政策行业债务融资效应的经验证据。     

Fiscal-monetary policy interactions in the presence of unionized labor markets

This paper develops a framework for studying the interactions between labor unions, fiscal policy, monetary policy and monopolistically competitive firms. The framework is used to investigate the effects of labor taxes, the replacement ratio, labor market institutions and monetary policymaking institutions on economic peformance in the presence of strategic interactions between labor unions and the central bank. Given fiscal variables, higher levels of either centralization of wage bargaining, or of central bank conservativeness are associated with lower unemployment and inflation. However the forward shifting of changes in either labor taxes or in unemployment benefits to labors costs is larger the higher are those institutional variables. The paper also considers the effects of those institutions on the choice of labor taxes and of unemployment benefits by governments concerned with the costs of inflation and unemployment, as well as with redistribution to particular constituencies. A main result is that, normally, higher levels of centralization and conservativeness induce government to set higher labor taxes. JEL Classification: E5 · E6 · H2 · J3 · J5 · L1     

信贷增长如何影响中国的收入和财富不平等

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据考察了信贷增长对中国家庭收入和财富不平等的影响。整体而言，信贷增长可以缩小家庭收入不平等，主要作用机制是信贷增长通过提高中低收入群体的劳动收入和单位时薪以缩小劳动收入不平等。同时，文献中所发现的信贷增长可能恶化收入不平等的机制——扩大家庭间非货币金融资产差距，在我国表现并不明显，原因在于中国家庭的非货币金融资产比例较低，这一点对于高收入家庭也不例外，且大部分家庭难以从金融资产交易中获利。信贷增长带来了各个收入组的房屋价值上涨，但高收入家庭房产价值上涨的幅度高于中低收入家庭，因此房价上涨扩大了不同收入家庭所持有的房产价值差异。考虑到家庭调查数据往往对高收入家庭的收入和财产覆盖不完整，上述结论可能低估了信贷增长对极少数高收入家庭收入和资产的影响。本文有助于更好地理解我国信贷增长对收入分配问题的影响，为相关政策制定提供了一定启示。     

Incremental Reform and Distortions in China's Product and Factor Markets

The purpose of economic reform is to reduce distortions andenhance efficiency. However, when reforms are partial and incremental,individuals and local governments are often able to capturethe rent inherent in the gradual transition process. Young (2000)warned that such rent-seeking behavior might lead to increasingmarket fragmentation. Empirical studies have shown the oppositein the product market. This article argues that as the rentfrom China's product market has been squeezed out due to deepeningreforms, rent-seeking behavior may have shifted to the capitalmarket. Further reforms are needed in the capital market tosqueeze out these rent-seeking opportunities, just as thosefrom the product and labor markets were squeezed out earlier.     

Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. The estimated model accounts for the responses of employment, hours per worker, job creation, and job destruction to a monetary policy shock. Moreover, search frictions in the labor market generate a lower elasticity of marginal costs with respect to output. This helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output that are observed in the data.     

Organized Labor and the Political Economy of Product Market Distortions

Why are economic reforms reversed through strikes and demonstrationsin some countries, but backed by the labor movement in othercountries? Why do product and labor market distortions differso much across countries? This article addresses these questionsby means of a simple, heuristic model of the economy that replicatesin an integrated manner several independent results from therecent political economy literature. Unlike most of this literature,however, the model focuses on the role played by organized labor,rather than by rent-seeking firms and guilds. A two-stage gamebetween the government and organized labor determines the levelof product market distortions (for example, import tariffs).In the first stage, the players may undertake costly actions,such as redistributing income or striking, in order to increasetheir bargaining power. In the second stage, they negotiateover product market distortions and wages. Under very generalassumptions, several policy regimes exist: Changes in the keyparameters of the economy may trigger a switch in the strategyof trade unions from confrontation to cooperation and hencechange the policy regime. Cross-country data highlight that,in spite of its simplicity, the model reproduces some observedempirical regularities.     

劳动市场摩擦与机会主义货币政策

本文在存在劳动市场摩擦的DSGE模型框架下考察机会主义货币政策的合理性。研究发现,当经济中存在显著的工资粘性、雇佣成本和搜寻匹配摩擦时,实行灵活通胀目标的机会主义货币政策在社会福利效果上优于以稳定通胀和产出缺口为目标的标准泰勒规则,并接近无约束最优政策的福利效果。因此在这些条件下,机会主义货币政策是中央银行合理的政策选择。     

投资潮涌、双重金融摩擦与货币政策传导——转型时期货币政策的结构调控功能探究

在银行融资与企业融资两大市场均存在金融摩擦的条件下,经济转型时期的“投资潮涌”蕴含重要货币经济学含义。以货币政策调控行业过剩产能为例,本文为解释转型时期中国货币政策结构调控功能构建一个理论分析框架,并对相关理论假说进行实证检验。经验证据显示:当不同产能过剩行业的企业在抵押能力信息传递上存在系统异质性时,货币政策具有显著产能调控功能,而调控作用的大小与企业产权结构以及货币政策工具类型有关。通过融合“投资潮涌”与BGG理论,本文将BGG理论中的货币政策效应异质性从企业层面拓展至行业层面,进而揭示了传统非结构性货币政策在转型经济背景下何以具有结构调控功能的理论机制。结论表明,进一步夯实金融市场微观基础,协同推进实体经济供给侧结构性改革与利率市场化改革,对于健全价格型货币政策调控体系至关重要。文章也为通过进一步完善和创新分类调控政策思路,实现灵活精准、合理适度的货币政策操作路径提供了政策启示。     

Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium

We explore determinacy and expectational stability (learnability) of rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in New Keynesian (NK) models that include capital. Using a consistent calibration across three different models—labor‐only, firm‐specific capital, or an economy‐wide rental market for capital, we provide a clear picture of when REE is determinate and learnable and when it is not under a variety of monetary policy rules. Our findings make a case for greater optimism concerning the use of such rules in NK models with capital. While Bullard and Mitra’s (2002, 2007) findings for the labor‐only NK model do not always extend to models with capital, we show that determinate and learnable REE can be achieved in NK models with capital if there is (i) plausible capital adjustment costs, (ii) some weight given to output in the policy rule, and/or (iii) a policy of interest rate smoothing.     

Monetary Policy,Trend Inflation,and Unemployment Volatility

The literature has long agreed that the DMP model (after Diamond 1982, Mortensen 1982, Pissarides 1985) with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities, consistent with empirical data, only if there is at least some wage stickiness. I show, however, that the model can deliver nontrivial volatilities without wage stickiness, as long as it has price dispersion and nonzero long‐run inflation rates. I find that by keeping inflation at a positive rate, monetary policy may be accountable for the large standard deviations observed on labor market variables. In addition, the Shimer (2005) puzzle disappears under monetary policy shocks.     

The Credit Channel at the Zero Lower Bound through the Lens of Equity Prices

This study examines the impact of unconventional monetary policies on the stock market when the short‐term nominal interest rate is stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Unconventional monetary policies appear to have significant effects on stock prices and the effects differ across stocks. In agreement with existing credit channel theories, I find that firms subject to financial constraints react more strongly to unconventional monetary policy shocks [especially large‐scale asset purchases (LSAPs)] than do less constrained firms. These results imply that the credit channel is as important as the interest rate channel in the transmission of unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB.     

劳动力成本与中小企业融资约束

本文利用世界银行提供的中国企业调查数据,基于信贷配给理论,考察劳动力成本对企业融资约束的影响。分别以劳动力成本占企业总成本的比重和劳动力成本相对于企业销售额的比值作为劳动力成本代理指标,通过考察企业是否需要银行贷款的自主决策与贷款可得性两方面信息,甄别企业受到的不同类型的信贷配给,进而系统考察劳动力成本对企业信贷约束的影响。研究发现:第一,劳动力成本显著地提高了企业受到信贷配给约束的概率,信贷对劳动力成本较高的企业具有明显的“筛选效应”;第二,劳动力成本对企业受到银行信贷配给和自我信贷配给约束的概率均有显著的正向影响,说明劳动力成本较高的企业不仅会受到更高的来自银行的信贷约束,还会受到来自自身的信贷约束,形成双重“筛选效应”;第三,机制分析表明,较高的金融发展程度和市场化水平通过减轻信息不对称问题,能够显著缓解“筛选效应”的不利影响。本研究为深化金融供给侧结构性改革、破解企业融资难题提供了新的政策启示。     

美联储货币政策对我国资产价格的影响

本文利用事件研究法考察了美联储货币政策对我国资产价格的影响。研究发现美联储货币政策会显著影响我国资产价格,美联储加息会降低我国债券和股票回报,降息则会提高债券和股票回报。将美联储货币政策进行细分后发现,预期到的货币政策调整对债券市场和股票市场的回报都有显著影响,而未预期到的货币政策调整和前瞻性指引只影响债券市场。进一步的研究表明,未预期到的美联储货币政策调整和前瞻性指引还会加剧我国金融市场的波动率。本文的研究结论为美联储货币政策对我国经济金融的影响提供了新的证据,对于投资者提高投资收益、降低投资风险以及货币当局完善我国货币政策调控和维护我国金融市场稳定具有重要意义。     

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Customer Markets

We present a model in which some goods trade in “customer markets” and advertising facilitates long‐lived relationships. We estimate the model on U.S. data and find a large congestion externality in the pricing of customer market goods. This motivates the analysis of optimal policy. Under a complete set of taxes, fiscal policy eliminates the externalities with large adjustments in tax rates on customer markets goods, while labor tax volatility remains low. Constraining the instruments to the interest rate and labor tax, the optimal labor tax displays large and procyclical fluctuations, but monetary policy is little changed compared to a model with no customer markets.