不确定条件下对称企业R&D项目的期权博弈分析

为了对市场不确定性条件下的企业项目价值进行评价,文章通过构建期权博弈模型对对称企业的研究与开发(R&D)项目投资行为进行了研究,并采用了最小二乘法的蒙特卡罗模拟(LSM)方法对模型进行了仿真求解,得到了两企业R&D项目的价值。研究结果显示,LSM方法与期权博弈相结合做法具有可行性,对企业进行项目价值的评估具有参考价值和指导意义。     

竞争条件下管理层收购的投资价值及最优投资时机分析——基于实物期权博弈的角度

在管理层收购中,虽然基于实物期权的评估方法充分考虑到企业未来增长机会、收购灵活性、收购后企业经营柔性产生的期权价值,但是由于自身资源及能力的限制,管理层和目标企业只能选择利用部分实物期权,同时,竞争的存在,改变了管理层收购决策的灵活性及未来投资机会的价值.分析管理层和目标企业自身条件及竞争因素对实物期权价值的影响,并利用期权博弈方法,分析在不同信息和不同竞争条件下管理层收购的最优投资时机选择及其对期权价值的影响有重要意义.在此基础上,笔者给出了竞争条件下管理层收购中目标企业投资价值的评定步骤及模型.     

不确定市场下的期权定价理论综述

由于B-S定价公式是在完全市场条件假设下推导出来的,这与现实存在很大的出入,所以后来的学者就针对市场条件状况,研究了不同市场条件下的期权定价,其中以不确定性市场条件下的期权定价为主,这显然与事实更加吻合。不确定性市场下的期权定价研究主要有欧式期权定价的情形、美式期权定价的情形、二叉树期权定价的情形以及实物期权定价的情形。文章在此基础上,分析总结了在这个市场假设条件下的研究现状,并给出了未来值得深入研究的方向:主要是进一步放松B-S定价模型的假设条件,引入更多的现实因素,深入研究不同市场状况下的期权定价问题。     

推迟期权视角下的地铁PPP项目投资时机选择研究

文章以推迟期权视角来研究地铁PPP项目的投资决策问题,建立了基于推迟期权的投资决策模型,分析了地铁PPP项目的投资时机选择,并对影响推迟期权价值的五大因素进行了敏感性分析,最后,结合具体项目案例进行了计算分析。     

实物期权定价理论在矿业权价值评估中的应用——以甘家巷铅锌矿投资项目为例

矿业权开发投资涉及多阶段决策,而且矿产品价格剧烈波动,不确定性极高。传统的净现值法易低估矿业投资项目的价值,往往导致对项目的误评。文中引入实物期权理论,在介绍其概念、优势及其在矿业投资中应用框架的基础上,结合华东局实例讨论了在不确定性条件下矿山推迟建设开采带来的投资机会价值,为矿业投资项目的投资决策提供一种更贴近实际情况的科学方法,提醒管理者关注并利用不确定性因素来获得更大的收益。     

电力投资决策的期权博弈模型及其发展评述

电力投资决策对于电力企业甚至电力行业的发展有着举足轻重的作用,电力企业的投资选择是在外部环境竞争复杂性和不确定性的约束下进行的,需要研究复杂竞争环境和不确定因素条件下的投资决策方法。本文以电力投资决策模型分析入手,总结了电力投资决策模型的发展过程,探讨了电力投资的期权博弈模型发展过程、研究重点、缺陷、及发展方向,展示了电力投资决策期权博弈理论的发展脉络和思考重点。实践证明,该方法不仅能够对电力投资项目进行更加科学的而评估,还能够为电力行业的发展做出更加科学合理的决策。     

期权的应用与房地产项目投融资探析

房地产项目投资具有较大风险和不确定性,运用传统投资评价方法不能挖掘项目的不确定性所带来的价值。文章引入实物期权理论,并通过净现值法和实物期权法对房地产投资决策案例进行对比分析,得出在较高不确定性环境下,实物期权理论能够挖掘项目潜在的价值,更加符合经济活动的要求。     

期权的应用与房地产项目投融资探析

房地产项目投资具有较大风险和不确定性,运用传统投资评价方法不能挖掘项目的不确定性所带来的价值.文章引入实物期权理论,并通过净现值法和实物期权法对房地产投资决策案例进行对比分析,得出在较高不确定性环境下,实物期权理论能够挖掘项目潜在的价值,更加符合经济活动的要求.     

重构企业R＆D项目战略投资决策方法体系

传统的投资决策方法是一种建立在广泛应用的以货币的时间价值为基础的投资决策方法,它已越来越不能适应当今充满不确定性和竞争性的市场需要.实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法（DCF）更适合来分析不确定条件下的投资决策问题,但仅凭实物期权方法还不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业R＆D项目战略投资问题进行准确分析和估价,而引入期权博弈理论恰好能克服这些缺陷.文章从理论上阐述了重构企业R＆D项目投资决策方法体系的可能性和必要性,并由此提出了研究的基本框架.     

石油投资项目布莱克-斯科尔斯期权定价模型建立及应用

高投资和高风险特征的石油投资项目大多具有放弃、扩张和延迟等多种期权特性。文章在介绍实物期权的基础上,对石油投资项目期权特征、评价思路、评价准则进行分析,建立石油投资项目Black—Scholes看涨期权、推迟投资期权、放弃期权三种定价模型,并结合实例进行应用,在EXCEL中建立计算应用模型,实现与传统评价方法的比较。     

基于实物期权的风险投资项目评价分析

风险投资项目与其他项目相比不确定性更大,在传统投资决策方法下,风险投资项目的不确定性使项目的投资价值更低,而实物期权方法作为一种新的投资决策方法为风险项目投资中不确定性问题提供了一种解决的思路。尝试把实物期权理论引入到风险投资项目评估中,并把传统方法与实物期权方法结合起来,旨在完善风险投资项目的评价方法。最后得出结论,实物期权方法为投资者继续投资提供了科学的依据,其在风险项目投资决策中的应用具有重要意义。     

Foreign capital inflows, economic growth and stock market capitalization in Asian countries: an ARDL bound testing approach

This study investigates the effects of foreign capital inflows and economic growth on stock market capitalization in 18 Asian countries by using the panel data from the period of 2000–2010. The ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between the considered variables. Results indicate that foreign direct investment has significant negative and economic growth has significant positive relationship with the stock market capitalization, whereas, the results of workers’ remittances is found insignificant in long run. The error correction model confirms the significant positive relationship of economic growth and workers’ remittances while, FDI has negative and significant impact on stock market capitalization in short run. Results of causality test based on Toda and Yamamoto (J Econom 66: 225–250, 1995) show the bidirectional causal relationship of foreign direct investment and economic growth with stock market capitalization. However, no causal relationship is found in between workers’ remittances and stock market capitalization. It is suggested that investor should not idealize the inflow of workers’ remittances to invest in Asian stock markets in long run. Simultaneously, size of the economy is a better leading indicator for Asian stock markets. On the other hand, inflows of FDI may mislead the investor to invest. Investor should keep on eye whether FDI come in the competition of domestic market or not? If this happens so investor should not invest in the stock market of host country.     

淡马锡的哲学

回看淡马锡整个历史，它都是以长期的商业利润评估为基础进行持续投资和出售其资产，并把创造利润和利润最大化作为宗旨的一部分，这使得它成为活跃的投资者和成功的企业股东。     

The R&D Investment–Uncertainty Relationship: Do Strategic Rivalry and Firm Size Matter?

This paper uses a real options perspective to augment a standard research and development (R&D) investment model and implement a firm‐level empirical analysis to assess the practical significance of market uncertainty and its interactions with strategic rivalry and firm size. We use a measure of firm‐relevant market uncertainty along with panel data and find that firms invest less in current R&D as uncertainty about market returns increases. The effect of firm‐specific uncertainty on R&D investment is smaller in markets where strategic rivalry is likely to be more intense. Furthermore, holding access to financing constant, the effect of uncertainty on R&D investment is attenuated for large firms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models

This paper considers the problem of investment timing under uncertainty in a duopoly framework. When both firms want to be the first investor a coordination problem arises. Here, a method is proposed to deal with this coordination problem, involving the use of symmetric mixed strategies.     

The Role of Information in Building Reputation in an Investment/Trust Game

This article analyses the role of information in building reputation in an investment/trust game. The model allows for information asymmetry in a finitely repeated sender–receiver game and solves for sequential equilibrium to show that if there are some trustworthy managers who always disclose their private information and choose to return a fair proportion of the firm's income as dividend to the investor, then a rational manager will mimic such behaviour in an attempt to earn a reputation for being trustworthy. The rational manager will mimic with probability 1 in the early periods of the game. The investor, too, will invest with probability 1 in these periods. However, in the later periods, the rational manager will mimic with a certain probability strictly less than 1. The probability will be such that it will make the investor indifferent between investing and not investing, and he, in turn, will invest with a probability (strictly less than 1) that will make the rational manager indifferent between mimicking and not mimicking; that is, the game will begin with pure-strategy play but will switch to mixed-strategy play. There is one exception, though: when the investor's ex ante beliefs about the manager's trustworthiness are exceptionally high, the game will continue in a pure strategy, and the switch to mixed-strategy play will never occur. Identical results obtain if the manager's choice of whether to share his private information with the investor is replaced by exogenously imposed information sharing.     

The impact of lead time on capital investments

We study equilibrium investment strategies of firms competing in stochastic dynamic market settings and facing two types of investment structures: investment with significant lead time (or time-to-build) and investment without (or minor) lead time. We investigate how investment behavior changes when investment is subject to time-to-build versus when it is not. We characterize equilibrium investment strategies under several information structures and compare results to the social optimum. We offer some new results. The model predicts that, controlling for demand, and production and investment costs, investments and outputs can be higher in progressive industries (which often exhibit time-to-build) than in fast-paced industries (where time-to-build is insignificant). Furthermore, for both investment types (investment with or without time-to-build) we offer a novel equilibrium in which firms incrementally invest. This behavior is driven by demand uncertainty and capacity constraints. Also, expected outputs are lower than Cournot outputs as firms face uncertainty. Moreover, the amount of uncertainty has different effects over investment types.     

高新技术产业化中风险投资问题的实物期权分析

高新技术产业由于具有投资的不可逆性和很大的收益不确定性,因此不能采用传统的净现值方法来评估是否对其投资。本论文在分析高新技术产业特点的基础上,提出了嵌入期权的现金流量图评估方法,并且根据经验法则求出了风险投资公司应占高新技术企业的股份。     

Stochastic interest rates under rational inattention

This paper introduces state uncertainty due to information-processing constraints into the Vasicek model to examine the impacts of rational inattention. By exploiting the term structure of interest rates, we derive closed-form solutions for the subjective bond price and the corresponding bond yield and find that uncertainty induced by informational frictions plays vital roles in undervaluing the bond price and overestimating the bond yield. Furthermore, we clarify the applications of interest rate dynamics under rational inattention and generate the following results: (i) there is an ambiguous relationship between the investor’s channel capacity and option price; (ii) an increase in state uncertainty via a change in the degree of channel capacity is likely to accelerate investment.     

投资者行动主义的国际研究

近年来,投资者特别是机构投资者开始改变过去的消极姿态,越来越多地主动参与到所投资公司的治理行动中。本文从不同国家“投资者行动主义”的表现形式出发,对投资者的组成结构进行国际比较,并对投资者行动主义存在的局限性进行述评。