A log-linear approach to disaggregated micro-level population forecasts

"This paper proposes the use of a log-linear model to obtain long-range micro-level population projections from the aggregative projections. The proposed model is tested using U.S. data. The total population of households is decomposed into 120 subgroups on the basis of the household's region of location, age, size and the female's employment status. The estimated number of households from the log-linear technique is compared against the random-walk and time-trend methods. A comparison of the size of the observed and estimated subgroups for the years 1960 and 1980 suggests that the log-linear technique is superior to the other two methods. Five different measures of errors are used to evaluate the projections."     

Alternative conceptual frameworks for the analysis of mobility tables and the log-linear models

This article contrasts two alternative conceptual frameworks for the analysis of mobility tables: the “structure vs. circulation” framework that in the past inspired the construction of “pure” mobility indices, and the “absolute vs. relative mobility” one, more recently proposed by Goldthorpe. Contrary to the beliefs of the past, the former cannot conveniently be expressed by the parameters of the saturated log-linear model. The latter, on the contrary, permits (via the language of odds and odds ratios) the coherent application of log-linear models. Moreover, it does not incur those theoretical difficulties which even the most sophisticated attempts to save the old framework incur (e.g. Sobel et al., 1985). In the third section of the article a contribution to the understanding of the analysis of mobility tables through odds ratios is given and the relation between odds ratios and the interaction parameters of the saturated model is shown.     

Empirical Bayes analysis of log-linear models for a generalized finite stationary Markov chain

This article presents the empirical Bayes method for estimation of the transition probabilities of a generalized finite stationary Markov chain whose ith state is a multi-way contingency table. We use a log-linear model to describe the relationship between factors in each state. The prior knowledge about the main effects and interactions will be described by a conjugate prior. Following the Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators relative to various loss functions are obtained. These procedures are illustrated by a real example. Finally, asymptotic normality of the empirical Bayes estimators are established.     

The collapsibility theorem in log-linear analysis of categorical data: an application in program evaluation

The collapsibility theorem describes both the circumstances in which the effects of hierarchical models change when additional variables are introduced, as the circumstances in which the exclusion of certain variables and the analysis of specific marginal tables may lead to different conclusions. The partial association model is here considered as a specific example of three-dimensional log-linear analysis. Collapsibility is examined in an empirical study currently being performed in Catalonia with regard to program evaluation in penitentiary centers.     

A correction to Whitney and Boots: An examination of residential mobility through the use of the log-linear model: Part II

A major, potentially compromising, computational error in the title paper is corrected and analyzed. In addition, an hypothesis as to its origin is offered.     

当前城市化发展与对策

最近 ,中国城市科学研究会召开了“当前城市发展与对策”专家座谈会。与会专家针对我国城市化进程中存在的突出问题进行了探讨 ,提出许多真知灼见 ,很有参考价值。本刊现整理刊出 ,以飨读者。     

电子政务的现状与趋势

在我国,“电子政务”从一个只有某些热衷于网络经济的IT人士把玩的概念演变为如今一场轰轰烈烈的“市场运动”也就是两年的时间。2002年可谓是中国的“电子政务年”,这一年无论在电子政务的理论、政策、实施还是在其市场与技术的发展方面都取得了巨大的进展,获得了许多有益的经验、涌现了一些成功的经验。但毋庸讳言,在这种快速发展的背后,也伴随着不少的障碍和问题。对我国未来电子政务的发展进行深入地思考,并从中理出切实可行的观点与措施,则是当前的一大课题。本刊特此选载《中国电子政务报告》的部分观点,诸如:提升政府门户网站在电子政务建设中的战略地位,以门户网站作为弥补“金”字工程的“条块分割”弊端的工具;要按照系统工程的思维方法去实施、操作和实践等。这些观点对完善和优化电子政务的建设将无疑起到重要的指导作用。     

Econometric Models and Economic Forecasting

This Briefing Paper is thejirst ofa series of three designeddiscussed is the process of making 'constant adjustments' in forecasts. This process involves modifying the results generated by the econometric model. For the first time we are publishing tables of the constant adjustments used in the current forecast. We explain in general why such adjustments are made and also explain the actual adjustments we have made for this forecast.
The second article of the series, to be published in our February 1983 edition, will describe the potential sources of error in forecasts. In particular it will describe the inevitable stochastic or random element involved in e tatistical attempts to quantify economic behaviour. As a completely new departure the article will report estimates of future errors based on stochastic simulations of the LBS. model and will provide statistical error bad for the main elements of the forecast.
The final article, to be published in our June 1983 edition, will contrast the measures of forecast error that e e obtain from the estimation process and our stochastic e imulationsp with the errors that we have actually made, as revealed by an examination of our forecasting 'track record'. It is hoped to draw, from this comparison, some e eneral conclusions about the scope and limits of econometric forecasting producers.     

Synergies and price trends in sequential auctions

In this paper we consider sequential second-price auctions where an individual's value for a bundle of objects is either greater than the sum of the values for the objects separately (positive synergy) or less than the sum (negative synergy). We show that the existence of positive synergies implies declining expected prices. When synergies are negative, expected prices are increasing. There are several corollaries. First, the seller is indifferent between selling the objects simultaneously as a bundle or sequentially when synergies are positive. Second, when synergies are negative, the expected revenue generated by the simultaneous auction can be larger or smaller than the expected revenue generated by the sequential auction. In addition, in the presence of positive synergies, an option to buy the additional object at the price of the first object is never exercised in the symmetric equilibrium and the seller's revenue is unchanged. Under negative synergies, in contrast, if there is an equilibrium where the option is never exercised, then equilibrium prices may either increase or decrease and, therefore, the net effect on the seller's revenue of the introduction of an option is ambiguous. Finally, we examine a special case with asymmetric players who have distinct synergies. In this example, even if one player has positive synergies and the other has negative synergies, it is still possible for expected prices to decline.Received: 12 December 2000, Accepted: 1 May 2002, JEL Classification: D44Flavio Menezes acknowledges the financial support from ARC (Grant A000000055) and CNPq. Monteiro acknowledges the financial support from CNPq and the hospitality of CERSEM where part of this paper has been written. We thank Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans, Peter Sørensen and two anonymous referees for useful comments.     

Early retirement: recent trends and implications

In recent years there has been a substantial rise in the number of people in Britain retiring before the normal statutory pensionable age. This article attempts to explain this development and examines some doubts about early retirement as a special employment measure.     

职业动机模型及其应用

人们在选择从事某个职业时,心理经历了两个过程,即职业认同和努力意愿,这两个过程缺一不可,没有了职业认同,就没有了努力意愿的基础。而努力意愿是职业动机中的关键一步,没有了努力意愿,也就谈不上在职业活动的积极性和创造性。     

Models of military expenditure

A brief review of the extensive empirical literature devoted to explaining levels of military expenditure indicates a wide variety of unreconciled results. However, comparing the alternative models is not straightforward. This paper uses British post-war military expenditures to illustrate some of the methodological issues involved in model comparison, evaluation and selection. Starting from two published models for the UK, a systematic specification search leads to a new model, which dominates alternative specifications, passes a wide range of misspecification tests, and also fits well to French data.     

Models of stratification processes

Quality &; Quantity - This paper presents certain mathematical models of the stratification process. These models are explicity concerned with the dynamics of stratification systems, and through...     

Models of database marketing

Database systems are intimately associated with fundraising effectiveness, but often leave much to be desired in the way they are implemented. This paper looks at the strengths, weaknesses and origins of three main database types: island, integrated and transitional. Observations support the view that database systems are created reactively in the face of strategies for fundraising. Where marketing strategy dictates a holistic approach to donor management, then systems will ten to the integrated or ‘contacts’ model. However, where there is no co-ordinated view on donoi development and maximised lifetime value, then fragmented island-type databases will be found.     

构建企业会计模式

企业会计模式是国家会计模式在企业的具体体现。与一个国家相比,企业所处环境相对有限,因此,有些构建国家会计模式所涉及的要素在企业会计模式中就成为理所当然的前提或基础,而不需要作为企业构建会计模式时考虑的问题。     

质量模式和方法论的演化及进展——纪念泰勒发表《科学管理原理》100周年

质量方法论经历了泰勒制、福特制、统计质量控制、日本式全面质量管理、美国式全面质量管理、国际通行质量标准和卓越绩效模式等演化过程。近年来,全面质量取代全面质量管理已在美国得到响应;愉悦质量的概念得到世界认同;以人为先的质量回归思想在世界兴起;六西格玛和其他工具的融合如火如荼;澳大利亚学者甚至提出了第三代质量管理的概念。