Regional development of German foreign trade in the 1990s

With a double-digit growth rate, Germany's export sector was again very successful last year. While the industrialised countries continue to be Germany's main trading partners, growth in the past few years has been stimulated by trade with the booming regions of Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe as well as with Central and South America. The current crisis in Southeast Asia has led to an abrupt slowdown in the region's economic development. What will be the consequences for global trade in general and for German foreign trade in particular?     

‘Best Practices’ in Regional Trading Agreements: An Application to Asia

Regionalism in Asia, particularly in the form of free‐trade areas (FTAs), is a recent trend that is becoming increasingly important. This has been disturbing to many, given the significance of trade and investment in Asian economic growth and development and the region's key role in global commerce. In light of this trend, the goal of this paper is to develop a blueprint, or a set of 10 ‘best practices’, that can be used as a guide to FTAs in order to ensure that they approximate first‐best outcomes to the greatest extent possible. Next, the paper applies this framework to the existing FTAs between Asian countries and their regional and extra‐regional partners. The results suggest that the more advanced regional accords generally receive high grades, with the notable exception of rules of origin, which tend to be even more problematic in the context of accords in which an OECD country is a party.     

A Latin American Perspective on Trade Policies

This article looks at the trade policy guidelines that the region should follow in order to achieve dynamic international economic linkages, in the light of the international context, the theoretical debates on this subject, and some lessons that may be learned from the study of successful cases. It is posited that in the countries of the region, trade policy can be an instrument for macroeconomic management, fiscal management, and, at the microeconomic level, resource allocation. Its use as a second-best instrument is justified when there are constraints on the use of the best possible solutions. It is also held that there must be close coordination of the policies applied in the fields of trade, industry, and technology to ensure high levels of investment in the tradeable sectors of the economy, a form of competitiveness based on constant increases in productivity, and an improvement in the region's specialization profile. Finally, emphasis is placed on the need to strengthen the institutions of Latin American states in order to ensure that their interventions in the economy have a suitable level of effectiveness.     

人力资本、南北贸易与经济增长:一个分析框架

在Dixit和Norman、Grossman和Helpman的基础上构造了一个以人力资本为基础的内生技术变迁的国际贸易模型来考察南北贸易对经济增长的动态影响。和以前的文献不同,假定不存在技术的外部性,只存在人力资本的外部性,人力资本积累既是经济增长的源泉,又是贸易影响经济增长的动态机制的决定力量。初始人力资本禀赋决定着贸易分工,人力资本相对积累率决定着分工模式的演变和创新能力的消长,从而决定着长期增长率。因而,对于南方国家而言,提高人力资本积累率是其改变分工地位、提高创新能力、缩小经济差距甚至在长期内实现经济赶超的根本选择。     

开放经济条件下中国收入分配状况分析——对中国入世1O周年的总结与反思

本文研究了改革开放30年尤其是入世10年来中国参与经济全球化及其对收入差距的影响情况。结果发现,贸易全球化短期内会加剧中国的收入差距,我们将其原因归结为“人口红利陷阱”,但在长期内贸易参与贸易全球化将有助于缩小中国的收入差距;生产与投资的全球化也会扩大收入差距,而金融发展与深化对中国收入分配差距的影响最大;技术进步、受教育程度提高以及劳动力由低阶部门向高阶部门的转移则在一定程度上可以缓解收入差距过大。虽然文章发现中国参与全球化加剧了收入分配差距,但同时认为本质是由于中国开放程度依然不高、市场化程度依然较低导致,建议中国需要进一步推进改革开放,加快融入全球化的步伐,同时加快服务业的发展,加大科研投入力度、提高高等教育普及程度,从而缩小收入差距。     

A vintage capital model of international trade: The case of trade with second-hand machines

The familiar two-sector, clay-clay growth model of a closed economy has been turned into an open one for which an import function could be derived. By means of this function international trade with second-hand machines can be explained on technological grounds rather than on differences in the factor endowment between the trading countries. Moreover, the technologically advanced country is by this trade able to provide ‘technological development aid’ to the backward country.     

Peace in the Middle East: What does if really mean for Israeli business?

The growing authenticity of the Middle East peace process is as much a product of the realities of the international business community as the efforts by the region's diplomats. The disintegration of the former Soviet Union and the results of the Gulf War have hastened the acceptance of Israel as a world class trading partner. Any meaningful peace should improve the region's living standards, but Israel is likely to be the major beneficiary in the short run. True stability in the region remains the challenge of business.     

对外开放与中国制造业工资差距——基于劳动力供需模型的实证检验

选取1998—2006年中国26个省市的面板数据,利用结合劳动力供需的对外开放影响工资差距的理论模型,就对外开放对制造业熟练和非熟练工人工资差距的影响进行实证研究。研究发现:从全国样本看,外商直接投资有利于缩小制造业熟练与非熟练工人工资差距,而贸易开放与制造业熟练和非熟练工人工资差距则是一种倒"U"型的关系。在分地区讨论时,发现外商直接投资对中西部地区制造业熟练与非熟练工人工资差距的缩小作用要大于东部地区,贸易开放对中西部地区制造业熟练与非熟练工人工资差距存在显著的正向影响,而对东部地区的影响不显著,这进一步验证了上述倒"U"型关系的实证结果。     

Tobacco Business and Regulation in the Developing Markets

Abstract

This paper compares BAT's business environment in Kenya and Uganda in light of the World Health Organization's (WHO) tobacco control initiative. It also illustrates the use of tobacco tax by Sub-Saharan African countries to address tobacco related conundrums. The comparison revealed elements of government ambivalence towards tobacco business and a possible recourse to tobacco tax to mollify global pressure against big tobacco. The paper uses the partial correlations between tobacco tax and basic economic development indicators across Sub-Saharan Africa and previous World Bank data as indicative of tobacco tax efficacy in controlling consumption in the region. It suggests that Sub-Saharan Africa may find regionally designed tax-based policy guidelines a palatable strategic alternative to global firms (such as BAT) that face a hostile global business environment. A united policy front that fits within the region's institutions can reduce complexity and create efficiencies through lower administrative costs across the region. Such action will make the region relatively more attractive (than it is currently) to foreign investors.     

The arrival of the Euro and its implications for Asia

The third stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) commenced on January 1, 1999 with the launch of the European single currency, the euro. The first round of participants comprises 11 of the 15 European Union (EU) nations, dubbed “Euroland.” The potential implications of EMU for Asia are immense. The euro's emergence as an international currency and its impact on Asia can be assessed in 3 different domains: (1) as a medium of exchange for Europe's trade with Asia; (2) as a store of value in stocks and bonds in world capital markets; and (3) as part of official foreign exchange reserves of Asian central banks. Our analysis suggests that there is potential for the euro to play a bigger role in EU-Asia trade links, which will be underpinned by the collective importance of Euroland as a much-enlarged trading and investment partner for Asia. However, in the short term at least, Asian equity markets are unlikely to benefit from significant inflows of capital from the EU as the former have been decimated by the region's financial crisis. As for Asian bond markets, rapid deterioration of sovereign ratings of countries in the region over the past 12 months would make it difficult for Asian companies to raise funds through euro-denominated debt instruments. As for official foreign exchange reserves, the bulk of Asian reserves is currently held in US dollar assets. Judging from Asian trade and debt figures, it seems unlikely that the euro would challenge the US dollar as a reserve currency any time in the near future. Nevertheless, in the longer term, the euro's introduction could make it easier for Asian central banks to diversify their reserves from the greenback to the euro. The internationalization of the euro is likely to happen only gradually, whether in terms of international trade denomination and settlement, denominating international financial assets, or as a reserve currency. Since the magnitude of shock that the single European currency would bring to the international monetary system is still unknown, only very tentative conclusions for the impact on Asian countries can be drawn at this point in time.     

The road from Nissan to Samsung: a historical overview of East Asian investment in a UK region

Japan's relationship with the North East of England is often charted from the 1984 investment by the car manufacturer, Nissan, in its Sunderland plant. The aftermath of that investment decision saw not only a wave of Japanese manufacturing investment descending upon the North East but also other investments from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong following in its wake. This article attempts to situate the experience of Japanese investment in the North East in the wider context of the region's more long-term associations with Japan. It looks to the legacy of the past in the building of Japanese battleships on Tyneside and other episodes of technology transfer in the late nineteenth century. It juxtaposes the subsequent changes in the region's industrial base with the post-war history of Japanese investment in the UK. With the arrival of NSK, the Japanese ball-bearings manufacturer, in County Durham in 1974, a new relationship can be seen to have emerged along with a regional infrastructure which supported further East Asian investment at the height of the bubble economy. The spreading out of that investment, its social and cultural impact and the consequences of the bubble bursting are explored at a time when claims for the dawning of ‘the Pacific century’ have been seriously called into question.     

东北三省旅游服务贸易竞争力比较分析

改革开放以来,黑龙江省旅游服务贸易得到长足发展,旅游服务贸易在黑龙江省经济发展中也发挥了较大的作用,但与先进地区的差距也不容忽视。利用市场占有率指数和显示性比较优势指数,比较分析东北三省旅游服务贸易竞争力的状况。结果表明,黑龙江省旅游服务贸易有一定的竞争力,但与辽宁省相比还有一定差距,应挖掘黑龙江省旅游产业的发展潜力,将其发展为特色产业,通过提高旅游服务业竞争力来带动黑龙江省服务贸易的发展。     

Population changes and restaurant success

As a region's population grows, one might expect similar growth in restaurant sales. While that's generally the case, the relationship is not direct—and sometimes it doesn't work at all.     

‘The Municipal Store’: Adaptation and Development in the Retail Markets of Nineteenth-Century Urban Lancashire

This essay employs a case study of Lancashire's nineteeth-century retail markets in order to reassess the impact of economic and urban growth on retail forms. By revealing the resilience of markets in a county which experienced some of the most intense industrial and urban development of the period, it challenges those models of retail change which present an inverse relationship between economic and urban change on the one hand, and ‘traditional’ modes of retailing on the other. It examines the ways in which the region's markets responded to the new problems and opportunities generated by their changing physical, economic and social environment, focusing in particular on their management, their trade and their temporal and physical organisation. It reveals how, contrary to undergoing displacement by ‘fixed’ forms of shop retailing, markets adopted some of their characteristics and evolved as modern, profitable, daily, undercover ‘municipal stores’.     

The outlook for 2001

Asia Pacific's advertising markets experienced rapid growth in the early 1990s. Following the economic crisis in 1997, advertising expenditure significantly declined. However, most markets recovered strongly and TV edged ahead of the press to become the region's largest advertising medium.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra‐Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra‐Asia exchange rate volatility on intra‐Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.     

Facilitating international production networks: The role of trade logistics

Networked trade in parts and components is more sensitive to the importer's logistics performance than is final goods trade. The difference between the two trade semi-elasticities is over 45%, which is quantitatively important. We also find that logistics performance is particularly important for trade among developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which is where the emergence of production networks has been most pronounced. Logistics performance is also more important for South–South trade than for South–North trade. Our results suggest that developing country policymakers can support the development of international production networks by improving trade logistics performance.     

The effects of trade agreements on the growth of major Latin American economies

While the connection between trade openness and economic growth is generally assumed to be positive, empirically, it is not clearly demonstrable. Examinations of the relationship between trade and growth have taken a number of approaches, differing both in the empirical methods, as well as the proxies employed for trade openness, trade liberalization, and growth, but results have been decidedly mixed. Our research differs from prior studies in that it does not examine whether trade policy, trade liberalization or the level of trade itself enhances GDP; but rather whether participating in a specific type of trade agreement/union and/or the number of trade agreements to which a given country or region belongs enhances a country's level of growth. For this purpose, we study the relationship between trade agreements and growth for 18 Latin American countries between 1960 and 2008. Empirical analysis uses an adaptation of the neoclassical Solow growth model. Even though supporters of globalization advance the notion that involvement in trade agreements will help a country's economy, our findings suggest that that may not be consistently so.     

China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence

China is transitioning towards more inward‐focussed growth, causing adverse changes in the product and financial terms of trade in the advanced economies. At the same time, international financial markets tussle between tightening forces associated with the US recovery on the one hand and unconventional monetary expansion in Europe and Japan on the other. The way these shocks interact is examined in this paper using a global macromodel with national portfolio rebalancing and asset differentiation and a representation of unconventional monetary policy. Results are found to be sensitive to the contributions of productivity and capital accumulation to China's growth. When these are offered in realistic combination, the effects are deflationary in the United States and China, militating against contractionary US monetary policy. Monetary responses in the United States and China then combine with price targeting regimes in the EU and Japan to expand liquidity globally, amplifying impacts on financial markets and the global distribution of real investment.     

Input tariff liberalisation and servitisation in manufacturing: Evidence from China's WTO accession

This paper links the sharp drop in China's manufacturing servitisation (MS) in early 21st century to China's accession to WTO featured by conspicuous input trade liberalisation (ITL). The results show that manufacturing industries exposed to higher degree of ITL suffer more MS declines after China's accession to the WTO. Heterogeneous analysis shows that industries with high import intensity, capital intensity or technology intensity suffer more MS declines following input trade liberalisation. Further analysis shows that input trade liberalisation increases the import of intermediate inputs while significantly reduces the proportion of service imports for manufacturing industries. The results are robust to a series of robustness checks.