旅游区的客源地出游力测评研究——以福建省古田旅游区为例

以福建省古田旅游区为研究案例,剖析客源空间规模,梳理了客源地出游力的影响因素,提出了"推—阻—拉"测评模型,测算了古田旅游区的客源地出游力,分析了现实出游力和客源地出游力之间的分异格局。结论表明:1古田旅游区的客源地主要分布于福建、广东和江西这3个省份,共包含52个县(市、区);2城镇就业人数、城镇居民可支配收入、私人汽车保有量、出游时间成本和旅游目的地的期待程度是影响古田旅游区的客源地出游力空间分异的主要指标;3古田旅游区的客源地可划分为强出游力地区、较强出游力地区、一般出游力地区和弱出游力地区这4个等级;4从现实出游力和客源地出游力间的分异情况来看,古田旅游区的客源市场潜力较大,有待深入挖掘。     

中原经济区经济发展水平综合评价及时空格局演变

通过构建区域发展水平评价指标体系,引入熵权TOPSIS法对中原经济区2000、2005和2009年各地经济发展水平评价与比较;进而采用马尔可夫链和ESDA法对中原经济区经济发展水平空间格局及演变特征进行探讨。研究表明：中原经济区经济发展水平存在显著的“俱乐部趋同”现象,区域差异不断拉大,两极分化趋势增强;经济发展水平呈现出较为显著的空间自相关,发展水平相似的地区呈集聚分布;从热点区分布看中原经济区区域差异主要表现为东西差异,从热点区演变看中原经济区尚未形成稳定的空间发展格局;给力培育地区经济增长极和主导发展轴、优化空间开发格局,深化区域分工与合作,着力提升对外开放水平是实现中原经济区协调发展的有效途径。     

新疆各地州市居民国内潜在出游力地区差异分析

选取新疆16个地州市作为研究样本,以23项指标为分析因子,对新疆各地州市居民国内潜在出游力进行了因子和聚类分析,并建立了潜在出游力回归模型.结果表明:(1)潜在出游力是各种因素综合作用的结果,它不仅要靠"内力"的推动作用,而且需要"外力"的拉动作用;(2)居民国内潜在出游力的大小取决于经济发展水平、城市化进程、居民生活水平等显性因子以及交通状况等隐性因子;(3)各地州居民潜在出游力空间分异格局为:出游潜力随着社会经济中心的极化和扩散作用,由经济中心向周边地区呈现出递减的趋势,且大体呈环状分布.潜在出游力较大的地区主要集中在社会经济发展水平比较高的北疆地区,并且以乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市的潜在出游力最强;(4)第三产业综合性因子的主导地位逐渐凸显,传统因子交通等的作用有所改变,新因子互联网、固定电话户数等的作用开始显现.     

中原经济区城市的吸附能力与联系强度测度 ——基于铁路客运车次数据

本文利用铁路客运车次数据测度中原经济区内各城市的吸附能力与城市间的联系强度,识别城市吸附能力的空间分异特征,刻画中原经济区城市空间联系格局.结果表明,中原经济区内城市的吸附能力总体偏弱,吸附能力相对较强的城市沿京广线和陇海线成"十"字型集聚,城市间联系表现出以郑州为重心的"三角形"格局,但郑州在省际联系中的中心作用较小,中原经济区内省际联系总体不足.     

中原经济区经济空间格局演化分析

以中原经济区30个地级市为基本分析单元,以2000-2010年人均GDP为基础数据,结合传统区域差异统计方法与ESDA空间分析技术,对中原经济区经济空间格局演化进行定量分析.结果表明:中原经济区整体经济趋同趋势不明显,经济发展的二元结构突出且空间惯性很强,形成了以郑州、洛阳等城市为核心的发达地区和京广线以东尤其是豫皖交界区等广大落后地区,核心区的经济极化作用仍占主导,扩散作用微弱.据此提出了缩小地区差异、优化经济空间格局的建议.     

中原经济区县域交通优势度与区域经济空间耦合

从路网密度、可达性和区位优势度三方面构建交通优势度评价指标体系对中原经济区2008年县域交通优势度进行评价与比较;并在中原经济区县域经济发展水平评价的基础上,对交通优势度与县域经济的耦合及协调度进行测度,并进行耦合—协调类型区划分。中原经济区交通优势度区域差异突出,呈现出以郑州为中心向外围递减的圈层状空间格局;县域经济水平西北部高于东南部,山区资源县高于平原农业县;虽然各县市交通优势度与经济发展水平耦合度均较高,但大多数县市处于中度协调或勉强协调状态;绝大多数县市交通超前发展,仅西北部边缘县市交通对区域发展的支撑能力不足;中原经济区应充分依托现有的交通支撑优势,加快推进县域经济发展,实现经济与交通的协调发展。     

黄河流域旅游经济空间分异格局及影响因素

黄河流域旅游经济协调发展是推动其高质量发展的重要环节。以黄河流域91个地市(州、盟)为研究单元,选取2005、2009、2013、2017年截面数据,采用ESDA、空间变差函数等方法探究黄河流域旅游经济的空间分异格局,并结合最小二乘法(OLS)和地理加权回归(GWR)模型定量分析其空间分异的影响因素。结果表明:①黄河流域旅游经济具有较强的空间依赖性,呈现H-H和L-L集聚分布的空间态势,其中L-L集聚区范围不断缩小,H-H集聚区从黄河下游地区向黄河中游地区逐渐延伸;②黄河流域旅游经济差异不断缩小,由空间自相关引起的结构化分异不断增强,东-西向成为其旅游经济空间分异的主要方向;③交通区位条件、旅游服务设施、旅游资源禀赋是影响黄河流域各地市旅游经济发展的主要因素且各影响因素存在显著的空间分异性。     

中国农村居民出游市场空间格局及类型划分

以中国343个行政区为空间单元,选取15个统计指标,运用因子分析和空间聚类,对中国农村居民潜在出游力的影响因子进行主成分和聚类分析,探讨其空间格局和类型.结果表明:①社会开放性与消费环境、出游经济能力、出游意识与交通条件依次是影响农村居民出游潜力的3个主要因子;②中国农村居民潜在出游力空间格局分为“5个极点、5个等级和8个客流集中区”;③出游市场可划分为3个类型:休闲型、生计型和综合型.休闲旅游是中国东部沿海发达地区农村居民的主要出游目的,目的地集中在周边旅游业发展较好的城市;中西部地区农村居民主要出有目的是探亲访友,以长途跨省市旅游为主;其他地区的主要出游目的和目的地呈多样化、分散化特征.     

中原经济区传统村落分布的时空格局及其成因

以中原经济区传统村落为研究对象,选取2012、2013、2014和2016年4个时间截面,采用核密度分析、地理探测器等方法,结合Arc GIS软件,分析中原经济区传统村落时空分布特征及其影响因素。结果显示:(1)中原经济区传统村落空间分布具有明显的差异性,不同时间截面传统村落空间分布均呈现聚集分布特征,空间结构上呈"双核集聚—网状发展"的空间结构发展模式。(2)利用地理探测器研究表明中原经济区传统村落分异主要受高程、地形起伏度、与中心城市距离的影响,而社会经济发展水平对其影响力不显著。(3)中原经济区传统村落多数位于西北部和南部的山地、丘陵与平原地区的过渡地带。     

中原经济区物流业发展水平评价研究

区域物流业发展水平是地区发展水平的重要衡量指标,中原经济区自2011年上升为国家战略,已发展成为中国重要的经济增长极,对其物流业发展水平评价具有重要的战略意义.本文运用熵权法对中原经济区物流业发展水平进行测算,利用Arcgis软件,根据自然间断点分级法,将中原经济区物流业发展水平划分为5个层次,最后从数量角度和空间维度进行分析,得出两个结论:一是中原经济区物流业发展水平多数地区处于中等发水平;二是中原经济区物流业发展呈现出"中间极、南北强、中间弱"的空间格局.     

也说“園(园)”

“園(园)”是风景园林学科的“元概念”之一。 现有对“園”的解释主要基于“囗”与“袁”组合的象形认 知,却存在谬误,且未能触及其本质。训诂是传统小学中 用来对汉字进行追本溯源的方法,将训诂学用于厘清“園 (园)”最为原始的音、形、义及其后世流变,揭示“園” 源于“圓”“圜”,最初是与“祀天”功能相关的“自然空 间”。从殷商至战国,“袁”逐渐代替“圓”“圜”中的 “員”“睘”讹为“園”,继承并扩大其字义。简化字“园” 亦有与“祀天”相关的“圓”“圜”的渊源,隐含了古人宇宙 观、时空观的传承。“天人合一”“人与天调”始终是“園 (园)”的基本内涵,是当今风景园林之“元”。     

Material implication of Chile's economic growth: Combining material flow accounting (MFA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA)

Over the last three decades, the economic integration of the Chilean economy into global markets has been taking place at a rapid pace. For example, in 1986, exports represented 29% of GDP while in 1996 they had increased to 38% of GDP. This period of time was characterized by strong economic growth with an average annual growth rate of about 10%. From a physical perspective, material requirements more than doubled from 220 to 500 million tons of direct material inputs (DMI) during the same decade (the rate of material growth requirements was around 13% per year).The main objective of this study is to explain the changes in DMI by using a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The changes in material flow accounting (MFA) were broken down into the effects caused by changes in resource use per unit of output (material intensity effect), changes between and within sectors (structural change effect), changes in the composition of final demand (mix effect), changes due to shifting shares of domestic final demand and export categories (category effect) and finally changes in the overall level of economic activities (level effects). The results, as a percentage of the total level of DMI used in 1986, indicate that economic growth was the major source of material changes (109%). The material intensity and category effects explained 31% and 14% of the increase, respectively. The increase in the material intensity is mainly due to a declining quality of ores in copper production. However, these components were partly compensated by the structure (− 14%) and mix (− 13%) effects. Therefore, for a Southern American country such as Chile, the main causes of these changes in material consumption have been a combination of the nature of economic growth along with an increase in export production and material intensity of production.     

产学研结合的技术创新权变模式的构建

有效的产学研结合技术创新模式必须与特定的权变因子相匹配,从分析影响产学研结合的因素的角度出发,根据权变理论,构建以企业为主体的产学研结合的技术创新权变模式。     

An assessment of the cost of percutaneous pulmonary valve implantation (PPVI) versus surgical pulmonary valve replacement (PVR) in patients with right ventricular outflow tract dysfunction

Abstract

Background:

Percutaneous pulmonary valve implantation (PPVI) using the Melody transcatheter pulmonary valve is a new procedure introduced in 2000 as a less invasive treatment for right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) dysfunction. The aim of this new procedure is to restore pulmonary valve competence without the need of open-chest operation. By prolonging the conduit lifespan, it delays surgical pulmonary valve replacement (PVR) and it can therefore potentially reduce the number of open-chest interventions over a patient’s lifetime. PPVI has been shown to be feasible and safe and can be performed with a low complication rate.

Objectives and Methods:

The aim of this study is to assess the cost of PPVI and the cost of surgical pulmonary valve replacement (PVR) in patients with right ventricular outflow tract dysfunction using a cohort simulation model applied to the UK population.

Results:

The model resulted in an estimate of mean cost per patient of £5,791 when PPVI is unavailable as a treatment option and in an estimate of mean cost per patient of £8,734 when PPVI is available over the 25-year period of analysis. After sensitivity analysis was undertaken the results showed that the mean per patient cost difference in implementing PPVI over 25 years as compared to surgical PVR lies somewhere between £2,041 and £3,913.

Limitations:

Given the lack of long-term data on treatment progression, the cost estimates derived here are subject to considerable uncertainty, and extensive sensitivity analysis has been used to counter this. Consequently this study is merely indicative of the levels of cost which can be expected in a cohort of 1,000 patients faced with a choice of treatment with PPVI or surgery. It is not a cost-effectiveness study but it helps place current knowledge on short-term benefits into context.

Conclusions:

As this analysis shows PPVI is associated with a relatively small increase in treatment management costs over a long time period. It is left entirely to the reader to value whether this inferred increase in long-term cost is worthwhile given the known short-term benefits and any personal judgement formed over long-term benefit.     

风景园林信息模型(LIM)技术实践探究 与应用实证

：在风景园林行业信息化发展的大趋势下，风景园林 信息模型(LIM)技术的推广和实践应用愈发重要和迫切。以 北京市通州区云景公园项目为例，结合Autodesk Civil 3D 和Revit等软件，从地形、道路与铺装场地、建构筑物、给排 水工程、植物景观，以及模型协同组织6个方面介绍公园类实 践项目中LIM模型的组织构建方法。以LIM模型中的数据信息 为核心，探索图纸类、数据类信息的获取，以及将模型作为成 果进行整体交付的方式。将建模方法与应用需求相结合，总结 LIM技术在项目全生命周期中的应用路径，并对LIM技术的发 展前景和潜在应用领域做出展望。     

Who Dares to Care? (In the World of Finance)

This study argues that gendered barriers to care are limiting the progress of socially responsible investment (SRI). Anchored within the world of finance – an industry predicated on mathematical theorizing, neoclassical economic thought, and omission of relational values – the inclusion of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting, a commonly used term for nonfinancial information in SRI, in investment decision making confronts several barriers. One such barrier concerns care: who cares for what, and where. In an environment where an atomistic-individualistic ontology dominates, and a relational-values ontology is omitted, the study investigates the possibilities for ESG to have a wider uptake. It considers the changes required to align the inherently relational aspect of care within a culture of economic reasoning reliant on the exclusion of care. It concludes with suggestions for how a relational caring perspective can be incorporated to accommodate and encourage SRI in the world of financial management.     

MODELLING TIME SERIES DATA OF MONETARY AGGREGATES USING I(2) AND I(1) COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

The objective of this paper is to consider methodology for modelling time series data of monetary aggregates such as monetary base and broad money. A brief review is made with regard to the likelihood‐based cointegration analysis of I(2) (integrated of order 2) data and I(2)‐to‐I(1) transformations. The paper then investigates procedures for econometric modelling of monetary aggregates, which are in general deemed to be I(2) variables analogous to price indices. It is shown that I(2)‐to‐I(1) transformations centering on a money multiplier play an important role in the modelling procedures. Finally, the study presents an empirical illustration of the proposed methodology using monetary aggregate data from Japan.     

Structural equation model for predicting technology commercialization success index (TCSI)

Expecting high return, many firms try to invest on R&D of new technology. However, critical loss of assets would occur, when a firm fails to commercialize the developed technology. It would be of interest to provide the ideal environment for commercialization from the R&D stage. In this study, we use a structural equation model (SEM) to forecast the technology commercialization success index (TCSI) in relation to technology developer, technology receiver, technology transfer center, and environmental factors. The proposed SEM is fitted based on partial least square (PLS) estimation procedure. Individual TCSI is then found following the approach used for American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) for various combinations of characteristics of the type of technology, technology receiver, and technology developer. We expect that the proposed approach for TCSI can be used as guidance for an ideal match of technology with technology developer and technology receiver.     

资源型城市经济可持续发展的理性思考

资源型城市在发展过程中，面临着经济结构畸形、资源面临枯竭、城市布局不合理、基础设施差以及生态破坏严重、环境污染加剧等问题，走可持续发展之路成为资源型城市发展的必然选择。要克服资源、经济、体制等方面的制约，通过经济政策、生态化改造、市场需求拉动等手段，加快城市转型步伐，促进经济多元化，把资源优势转化为经济优势，实现经济的可持续发展。     

Economic (dis)integration in the presence of evolutionary learning

We use a two-factor, two-sector model to study the effects of economic integration and its reversal in the presence of input-generated external economies in one of the sectors. The equilibrium selection problem that arises is solved by applying a simple trial-and-error learning rule. Economic integration can take individual economies ridden with coordination failures to better equilibria, i.e., can solve the coordination problem. We show that integration (and disintegration) may generate cycles in wages, rentals and the sectoral allocation of factors.JEL Classification: F15, F16, F37 Corespondence to: Diego Méndez-Carbajo