A Theory of the Dynamics of Security Returns around Market Closures

Numerous empirical studies document patterns in the means and variances of security returns measured over periods that are punctuated by market closures. This article develops a multiperiod model in which closures delay the resolution of uncertainty, thereby redistributing risk across time and agents. Since agents are risk averse in the model, this redistribution affects the equilibrium price, altering risk premia, liquidity costs, and the degree of informational asymmetry. As a consequence, closures alter both the means and variances of returns. The article demonstrates that closures can generate a variety of mean and variance effects, including those that mirror the empirical phenomena.     

Correlated Trading and Returns

A German broker's clients place similar speculative trades and therefore tend to be on the same side of the market in a given stock during a given day, week, month, and quarter. Aggregate liquidity effects, short sale constraints, the systematic execution of limit orders (coordinated through price movements) or the correlated trading of other investors who pick off retail limit orders do not fully explain why retail investors trade similarly. Correlated market orders lead returns, presumably due to persistent speculative price pressure. Correlated limit orders also predict subsequent returns, consistent with executed limit orders being compensated for accommodating liquidity demands.     

Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns

This paper investigates the dynamic relation between net individual investor trading and short‐horizon returns for a large cross‐section of NYSE stocks. The evidence indicates that individuals tend to buy stocks following declines in the previous month and sell following price increases. We document positive excess returns in the month following intense buying by individuals and negative excess returns after individuals sell, which we show is distinct from the previously shown past return or volume effects. The patterns we document are consistent with the notion that risk‐averse individuals provide liquidity to meet institutional demand for immediacy.     

再通胀交易下的国际外汇市场

今年以来,再通胀交易成为影响国际外汇市场走势的重要因素。多项利好支持美元指数反弹,英镑伴随全民高接种率迎来“疫苗行情”,澳元等商品货币基本面良好汇率坚挺,欧元、日元等负利率货币相对弱势,港币受资本市场走势影响显著。展望后市,再通胀交易逻辑有望延续,重点关注通胀和就业两大关键数据、美国后续基建投资、各大央行政策走向。     

Trading Volume and Cross-Autocorrelations in Stock Returns

This paper finds that trading volume is a significant determinant of the lead-lag patterns observed in stock returns. Daily and weekly returns on high volume portfolios lead returns on low volume portfolios, controlling for firm size. Nonsynchronous trading or low volume portfolio autocorrelations cannot explain these findings. These patterns arise because returns on low volume portfolios respond more slowly to information in market returns. The speed of adjustment of individual stocks confirms these findings. Overall, the results indicate that differential speed of adjustment to information is a significant source of the cross-autocorrelation patterns in short-horizon stock returns.     

投资者分歧、异常交易量和股票横截面收益率预测——基于中国股票市场的经验证据

本文定义月度异常交易量为本月与上个月交易金额的比值,发现中国市场月度收益率与滞后一个月的异常交易量显著负相关。在控制了公司规模、账面市值比、流动性以及动量效应等指标后仍然具有显著的解释作用。进一步研究表明,在出现高异常交易量后的12个月内,换手率和特质性波动率都有大幅上升。本文认为,交易量上升代表着市场分歧程度和受关注程度的增加,在卖空约束下会使得股票价值高估,从而造成未来收益率下降。     

Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs

We derive a closed‐form optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean‐reversion speeds. The optimal strategy is characterized by two principles: (1) aim in front of the target, and (2) trade partially toward the current aim. Specifically, the optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio and an “aim portfolio,” which is a weighted average of the current Markowitz portfolio (the moving target) and the expected Markowitz portfolios on all future dates (where the target is moving). Intuitively, predictors with slower mean‐reversion (alpha decay) get more weight in the aim portfolio. We implement the optimal strategy for commodity futures and find superior net returns relative to more naive benchmarks.     

The Trading Decision and Market Clearing under Transaction Price Uncertainty

This paper models an individual's trading decision, given: (1) his/her demand function to hold shares of an asset, (2) his/her expectation on what the market clearing price will be, and (3) the design of the market which determines how orders will be translated into trades. The particular market design we consider is the batched trading (periodic call) regime. Assuming investors are distributed according to their propensities to hold shares, we model the aggregation of orders to obtain market clearing values of price and volume and to show the way in which, with trading friction, these solutions differ from Pareto efficient values. The importance of this analysis for various issues concerning market design is noted.     

Corrections for Trading Frictions in Multivariate Returns

When observed stock returns are obtained from trades subject to friction, it is known that an individual stock's beta and covariance are measured with error. Univariate models of additive error adjustment are available and are often applied simultaneously to more than one stock. Unfortunately, these multivariate adjustments produce non-positive definite covariance and correlation matrices, unless the return sample sizes are very large. To prevent this, restrictions on the adjustment matrix are developed and a correction is proposed, which dominates the uncorrected estimator. The estimators are illustrated with asset opportunity set estimates where daily returns have trading frictions.     

A Model of Returns and Trading in Futures Markets

This paper develops an equilibrium model of a competitive futures market in which investors trade to hedge positions and to speculate on their private information. Equilibrium return and trading patterns are examined. (1) In markets where the information asymmetry among investors is small, the return volatility of a futures contract decreases with time-to-maturity (i.e., the Samuelson effect holds). (2) However, in markets where the information asymmetry among investors is large, the Samuelson effect need not hold. (3) Additionally, the model generates rich time-to-maturity patterns in open interest and spot price volatility that are consistent with empirical findings.     

Market Liquidity and Trading Activity

Previous studies of liquidity span short time periods and focus on the individual security. In contrast, we study aggregate market spreads, depths, and trading activity for U.S. equities over an extended time sample. Daily changes in market averages of liquidity and trading activity are highly volatile and negatively serially dependent. Liquidity plummets significantly in down markets. Recent market volatility induces a decrease in trading activity and spreads. There are strong day-of-the-week effects; Fridays accompany a significant decrease in trading activity and liquidity, while Tuesdays display the opposite pattern. Long- and short-term interest rates influence liquidity. Depth and trading activity increase just prior to major macroeconomic announcements.     

Market Efficiency and the Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules: New Evidence from U.S. Equity Market and Chinese Equity Markets

Numerous studies in the finance literature have investigated technical analysis to determine its validity as an investment tool. This study is an attempt to explore whether some forms of technical analysis can predict stock price movement and make excess profits based on certain trading rules in markets with different efficiency level. To avoid using arbitrarily selected 26 trading rules as did by Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992) and later by Bessembinder and Chan (1998), this paper examines predictive power and profitability of simple trading rules by expanding their universe of 26 rules to 412 rules. In order to find out the relationship between market efficiency and excess return by applying trading rules, we examine excess return over periods in U.S. markets and also compare the excess returns between U.S. market and Chinese markets. Our results found that there is no evidence at all supporting technical forecast power by these trading rules in U.S. equity index after 1975. During the 1990s break-even costs turned to be negative, –0.06%, even failing to beat a buy-holding strategyin U.S. equity market. In comparison, our results provide support for the technical strategies even in the presence of trading cost in Chinese stock markets.     

Trading Returns for the Weekend Effect Using Intraday Data

The existence of the weekend effect has been documented as early as 1885. This paper examines whether the serial dependence in returns around weekends and the magnitude of negative Friday returns can be used to produce superior trading returns. We find some success for this endeavor after accounting for transaction costs (including the bid/ask spread), especially when trading is confined to weekends for which there are large negative Friday returns and to positions opened on Friday afternoons. The effect of stocks trading ex-dividend on Mondays does not appear to bias our results.     

证券交易的透明度与信息揭示制度：理论综述

证券交易过程中，交易信息的发布、扩散和传递方式对于各类市场参与者非常重要。目前关于信息揭示制度和交易透明度对市场运行效果的影响尚存在许多争议。本文讨论了交易透明度的含义、研究者和市场机构对于交易透明度的争论、交易透明度与市场绩效的关系，以及不同交易透明性的市场之间的竞争等问题，系统总结了目前与证券交易透明度和交易信息揭示有关的理论观点，以期把握交易信息揭示程度对市场产生的影响，以及由此引起的交易透明度对市场的运行效率产生的影响。     

Capital Gains Tax Rules, Tax-loss Trading, and Turn-of-the-year Returns

Changes in the capital gains tax rules facing individual investors do not affect the incentives for "window dressing" by institutional investors, but they can affect the incentives for year-end tax-induced trading by individual investors. Empirical evidence for the 1963 to 1996 period suggests that when the tax law encouraged taxable investors who accrued losses early in the year to realize their losses before year-end, the correlation between early year losses and turn-of-the-year returns was weaker than when the law did not provide such an early realization incentive. These findings suggest that tax-loss trading contributes to turn-of-the-year return patterns.     

Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns

This paper tests two of the simplest and most popular trading rules—moving average and trading range break—by utilizing the Dow Jones Index from 1897 to 1986. Standard statistical analysis is extended through the use of bootstrap techniques. Overall, our results provide strong support for the technical strategies. The returns obtained from these strategies are not consistent with four popular null models: the random walk, the AR(1), the GARCH-M, and the Exponential GARCH. Buy signals consistently generate higher returns than sell signals, and further, the returns following buy signals are less volatile than returns following sell signals, and further, the returns following buy signals are less volatile than returns following sell signals. Moreover, returns following sell signals are negative, which is not easily explained by any of the currently existing equilibrium models.     

欧洲信贷资产流转市场调查研究

2017年7月,银行业信贷资产登记流转中心(以下简称"银登中心")考察小组赴英、法两国同业机构交流,期间先后访问了多家行业协会和金融机构,就欧洲信贷资产流转市场的基础设施、平台公司、自律组织等进行了考察调研。调研发现,欧洲信贷资产流转市场在三十多年的发展历程中,交易品种和交易模式逐渐丰富,具有行业自律作用突出、投资者结构多元化、市场分散度高且区域性强等特点,这对于金融基础设施服务的要求不断提高。在此基础上,本文从促进我国信贷资产流转市场进一步发展的角度出发,提出了制定并推广行业标准、完善金融基础设施服务、继续研究贷款评级和价格发现机制、推动银团贷款流转业务等建议。     

Learning by Trading and the Returns to Human Capital in Developing Countries

Recent evidence shows that the returns to labor and the skillpremium both increase in developing countries after trade liberalization,despite the low skill content of their exports. The author explainsthis apparent puzzle by arguing that trade increases technologytransfers from industrial to developing countries and that thetransfer technology is biased in favor of skilled labor. Therelative demand for skilled labor increases during the transitionfollowing liberalization, and so the gains enjoyed by skilledlabor are temporary, even in the absence of supply responses.The gains become longer lasting when the transferred technologyis also skill-biased.     

The Impact of Publication of Analysts' Recommendations on Returns and Trading Volume

Publication of security analysts' recommendations in the column “Inside Wall Street,” which is published in Business Week, induces abnormal returns on the publication day and the following day. The abnormal returns are robust to the use of alternative samples and methodologies. The publication increases trading volumes for the securities that are recommended to be purchased, but not for securities that are recommended to be sold. The abnormal returns and trading volumes support the view that stock prices do not adjust instantaneously when new information arrives, and that the time pattern of price adjustment depends on the time pattern of the accessibility of the information. The authors find no statistically significant difference between the average abnormal returns that are induced by recommendations that appear at the beginnings of “Inside Wall Street” columns (and are covered more extensively than others) and the average abnormal returns induced by other recommendations.