中国新疆喀什与周边主要国家相对比较优势分析

本文依据要素禀赋理论,采用劳动生产率、产业相似系数、专业化系数、区位商和商品出口竞争力指数等分析指标,对喀什地区与周边主要国家的劳动生产率、三次产业相似度和专业化程度及各国商品的出口竞争力进行了分析,综合反映了喀什地区相对于周边主要国家的相对比较优势,对喀什的外向型经济发展具有一定的指导意义。     

基于新兴古典经济学、交易成本经济学的产业集群演进机理探析

新兴古典经济学认为,在专业化经济和交易成本之间总是存在着非常复杂的两难冲突,交易效率的改进将会扩大分工经济与交易成本折衷的范围,从而提高生产者的专业化生产程度。交易成本经济学认为,不确定性、交易频率和资产专用性决定了经济活动主体的治理结构安排,随着三个变量水平的变化,其治理结构由于节约交易成本的原因,将经历市场、企业、网络组织的三种形态变化。文章运用新兴古典经济学与交易成本经济学思想,考察了劳动分工、交易效率与产业集群演进的互动关系,认为产业集群的形成与发展是一个劳动分工深化、交易效率提高(交易成本降低)的过程。在此基础上,文章对杨小凯的基于专业化经济的劳动分工模型进行了拓展和深化,以便对产业集群的演进机制进行深入分析,并通过模型分析支持了本文的观点。因此,产业集群的形成与发展有其自身的内在规律。当前,政府更为紧迫的任务是要注重产业集群软环境的建设,以此降低交易费用,促进产业集群的持续、健康发展。     

论资源禀赋对专业化分工及贸易的影响

文章通过构建优化模型分析了资源诅咒的一项传导机制——丰裕的资源将会阻碍（至少是拖延）地区经济由原本落后的自给自足的生产模式向以专业化生产和交易为特征的先进模式转变的进程,从而降低整个社会的要素生产力,对经济增长不利。这是因为随着人均资源禀赋量的增加。人们愿意从自给自足模式跨入分工模式的交易效率门槛值亦在不断提高,也就是说在资源富足的地区,除非基础设施和制度非常地完善,可以保证交易的成本下降到很低的水平,否则人们更愿意进行低效率的自给自足的生产。相反,在资源贫乏的地方,只要交易成本不是太大,人们就有充分的动机从事专业化生产和交易,显然这种模式有利于提高生产效率,也代表了社会经济的发展方向。最后,文章分析了人口增长和技术进步在这一传导机制中的作用,提出可以通过加强基础设施投资、完善交易管理制度来争取突破效率门槛的限制,规避资源诅咒。     

Does contracting institution affect the patterns of industrial specialization in China?

This study evaluates the importance of contracting institutions as a source of comparative advantage across Chinese provinces. We find that industries differ in their reliance on relationship-specific investments. Provinces with better contracting institutions specialize in industries with more intensive relationship-specific investments. We implement two proxies to measure contracting institutions, including efficiency of the legal system and service of contract enforcement. The empirical results of this study indicate that contracting institutions play a role in shaping the patterns of industrial specialization. Specifically, the service of contract enforcement has the first-order effect on the patterns of industrial specialization in China; by contrast, legal jurisdiction plays a modest role.     

国际产品内贸易对中国工业技术进步和收入水平的影响——基于工业行业数据的经验分析

国际产品内贸易是当前国际贸易的重要形式之一,中国已经充分融入这一垂直专业化的国际分工体系中,这种国际分工和贸易模式给中国的经济带来了诸多的影响。本文主要研究了国际产品内贸易对中国工业的技术进步和收入水平带来的影响。实证分析表明,如果国际产品内贸易发生在劳动密集型行业,则会给这些行业的技术进步和劳动者收入水平的提高带来负面的影响;而如果国际产品内贸易发生在技术密集型行业,则将会提升这些行业的技术水平,并使这些行业劳动者的收入水平得到改善。     

中国制造业参与产品内国际分工的影响因素分析

在经济全球化背景下,发达国家将制造业生产的劳动密集型环节转移到中国等发展中国家,产品内国际分工迅速发展.理论与实证分析表明,低成本劳动力的比较优势是我国制造业参与产品内国际分工的基础,而劳动力的素质与效率、制造业发展水平、国内经济状况与对外开放程度等宏观经济环境方面的因素对吸引和承接发达国家的跨国外包均有重要影响.     

Aging,automation, and productivity in Korea

This paper examines the impact of aging in the Republic of Korea on productivity as measured by labor productivity or total factor productivity (TFP). It also assesses the effect of robot adoption on the relation between aging and productivity using industrial level data. We find that aging is negatively associated with labor productivity and TFP growth. This is true particularly when aging is measured by increases in shares of old workers. If aging is measured by increases in the median age of workers, the negative effect is weaker. Evidence also suggests that robot technology mitigates aging's negative effect on productivity growth, particularly when productivity is measured by TFP. However, there is no evidence that robots are more heavily adopted in aged industries. While robot technology does not directly contribute to higher productivity growth, our findings suggest that the robot adoption can alleviate the negative impact of aging by helping workers in their 50s and 60s contribute less adversly to productivity growth.     

教育投资外溢与江苏经济增长:一项实证考察

文章借鉴菲德模型,在收集1992—2006年江苏省经济发展数据的基础上,对教育在江苏经济增长中的外溢作用进行了量化分析。由实证结果可知,教育对江苏经济增长的外溢作用是巨大的,研究结果同时表明江苏教育部门与经济中其他部门相比生产力较低。最后就提升江苏教育工作水平,进一步加大教育对经济增长的促进作用给出了几点建议。     

政府间转移支付、物流专业化与企业出口行为

文章以政府间转移支付、物流专业化影响企业出口行为的理论为基础,采用2000-2013年中国县级财政经济统计数据以及中国工业企业微观数据,运用Heckman两阶段法探究政府间转移支付、物流专业化与企业出口行为的总体关系。研究发现,政府间转移支付显著推动企业出口参与度的提高和出口规模的增长,物流专业化对上述企业出口行为均有显著的积极影响,政府间转移支付在物流专业化与企业出口行为的关系之间呈现显著的负向调节作用。在通过解决变量内生性问题、消除分配政策影响、考虑新冠肺炎疫情等外生冲击影响等一系列稳健性检验后,上述结论依然成立。进一步对政府间转移支付的异质性分析结果显示,一般性转移支付与物流专业化的交互项对企业出口参与度的回归结果变为正向显著。中介效应检验表明,政府间转移支付主要通过协调区域经济发展、基本公共服务均等化、改善财政收支结构促进企业自身出口参与和出口规模扩张;物流专业化主要通过物流规模扩张和物流效率提升促进企业出口二元边际增长。在新冠肺炎疫情长期持续和当前复杂艰难的国际贸易形势下,这一研究对我国继续优化政府间转移支付分配结构、强化物流专业化比较优势,进一步释放企业出口潜力,畅通国内国际经济双循环具有重要参考价值。     

全球化条件下人的发展与国际分工的转化

文章基于逻辑曲线，从人的发展角度分析了当代国际分工的转换，解释了在较高的人类发展程度上，产品内分工将会替代产品间分工，各国各部门基于价值链各片段的分工将成为国际分工的主要方式。同时，一国人类发展达到足够高的程度时，也会引致全球的产品内分工，这一机制转换与当前知识密集型产品的全球外包的高速增长是一致的。     

制度规范、劳动保护与企业创新——基于《劳动合同法》颁布的准自然实验

文章以2008年新《劳动合同法》颁布为契机,基于2005-2019年上市公司数据库,检验了制度规范引致企业劳动保护增强后对企业创新水平的促进作用.研究结果表明,劳动保护显著促进了企业创新,以研发投入衡量的创新投入指标以及以专利数量衡量的创新产出指标均显著增强.进一步分析表明,制度规范带来的劳动保护增强主要通过人力资本投资效应以及要素替代效应两个渠道促进了企业创新,并且在民营企业中更为显著;同时地区市场化程度以及法治环境水平也是影响劳动保护促进企业创新的重要因素.《劳动合同法》为企业制度建设提供了规范指引,运用法治思维提升企业管理制度化水平是企业增强市场竞争力的必然选择.     

International market interdependence and learning-by-doing in a risky world

International Market Interdependence and Learning-by-Doing in a Risky World. — This paper explores the role of international financial markets for the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage in a small economy. In a world where learning-by-doing alters labor’s productivity over time, the current allocation of labor across industries determines the future productivity of labor in each industry and future comparative advantage. The presence of technological uncertainty that is imperfectly correlated across two industries affects the current labor allocation and, thus, future industry-specific labor productivity. The introduction of international financial markets to this stochastic environment influences current resource allocations, future labor productivity, and consequently, the future path of comparative advantage.     

广东省专业镇制造业成本上升水平及其对策

纵向专业化分工、巨大的外来工市场、成熟的专业市场、行业协会强大的议价能力、技术外溢效益是广东省专业镇经济蓬勃发展的强大支撑。近年来,广东省专业镇企业成本优势弱化,竞争能力下降,部分产业出现向省外转移的迹象。为求得专业镇经济持续稳定发展,广东省各级政府必须完善职工培训体系,积极培育本地劳工市场,优化投资环境,鼓励自主创新,推进品牌建设,凸现整合优势,适时地进行产业转型与升级。     

The dynamics of European industrial structure

Has the European integration process lead to increased specialization and what drives changes in countries’ specialization? To address these questions we apply a model that incorporates endowments, technology and increasing returns to scale. Analysis reveals that countries with high capital accumulation have become increasingly specialized in capital-intensive industries; this holds for both human and physical capital. No general tendency towards increased specialization is found with the exception of capital-intensive industries. Analysis indicates scale economies in R&;D at the firm level and that R&;D at the firm level drives productivity and competitiveness. JEL no. C29, F12, O33, O52     

浙江专业市场型村落演化的一般过程及其启示

改革开放以来,浙江农村经济取得了举世瞩目的成绩,探求浙江农村经济成功发展的原因可以发现:浙江民营经济十分发达,普遍实现了地域专业化分工,基本做到了"一村一品、一乡一品"或"几乡一品",由生产带动销售,形成了浙江经济的典型特征"专业市场"经济模式。农村专业市场村落的形成也正基于此。本文试从农村工业品市场发展演化的一般过程出发,来探寻浙江农村市场型村落发展变迁的历史轨迹和宝贵经验。     

Females,the elderly,and also males: Demographic aging and macroeconomy in Japan

The speed and magnitude of ongoing demographic aging in Japan are unprecedented. A rapid decline in the labor force and a rising fiscal burden to finance social security expenditures could hamper growth over a prolonged period. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model populated by overlapping generations of males and females who differ in participation rate, employment type and labor productivity as well as life expectancy. We study how changes in the labor market over the coming decades will affect the transition path of the economy and fiscal situation of Japan. We find that a rise in the labor supply of females and the elderly of both genders in an extensive margin and in labor productivity can significantly mitigate effects of demographic aging on the macroeconomy and reduce fiscal pressures, despite their negative effects on equilibrium wages during the transition. The study suggests that a combination of policies that remove obstacles hindering labor supply and that enhance a more efficient allocation of male and female workers of all age groups will be critical to keeping government deficit under control and raising income across the nation.     

Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth: Role of Tax Revenues and Infrastructures

To encourage economic growth in a developing economy, higher agricultural productivity has been believed to enhance the manufacturing sector's development, which provides the transition into industrialization. Although this positive linkage between agricultural productivity and economic growth has been judged to be incorrect, based upon the comparative advantage argument in a model of small-open economies by Matsuyama (1992), this article revisits the linkage by extending Matsuyama's model by introducing the revenue-generating effect, which is missing in his model. As agriculture is an important source of taxation in an early stage of economic development, higher agricultural productivity generates more tax revenues and facilitates spending on infrastructure. By introducing government taxation and infrastructure expenditure, we show that under proper conditions, higher agricultural productivity creates a positive growth effect via the revenue generation that dominates the negative growth effect through the comparative advantage. Moreover, introducing infrastructure expenditure may shift the manufacturing sector's original comparative disadvantage into comparative advantage, thereby enabling a trapped economy to take off and eventually industrialize. From the early stages of economic development in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, we can quantitatively assess an obvious net positive effect of agricultural productivity upon labor allocation and economic growth.     

How does people’s liberation army related business closure affect the local economy?

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) related business was rampant in China in the 1980s and 1990s, and they significantly disrupted the local economy. However, due to limited data about PLAs, this issue is rarely investigated and thus the negative impact is hardly measured. In this paper we introduce a new proxy for measuring the approximate level of PLA related business in a specific city, PLA hospital score, to identify cities that are more affected by PLA related business closure. We then employ a difference-in-differences (DID) framework and show that PLA related business closure does bring positive effects to China’s local economy, about a 2% increase in GDP growth per year. We also find that this effect is more significant in cities with median economic size and cities that rely more on secondary and tertiary sectors. We finally provide a possible channel of this effect, which mainly works through providing a more efficient and competitive market to local private firms as well as an investment-friendly environment that attracts foreign investments.     

基于商品技术分类的我国贸易条件的测算与影响因素研究

本文以1981-2011年主要进出口商品数量与金额数据为基础,分别对我国总贸易条件及基于Lall(2000)分类法为依据的分类商品的贸易条件进行计算,并对贸易条件的各影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,一国的经济水平、FDI、劳动生产率及高技术产品出口的比重对贸易条件有显著影响。经济水平的提升、实际利用的FDI的增加是贸易条件改善的主要因素;就目前我国技术水平来说,劳动生产率的提高,高技术产品出口比重的加大并不能引起我国贸易条件的改善。     

数字经济对中国全要素生产率的影响机理:提升效应还是抑制效果？

数字经济是新时代引领中国经济高质量发展的关键抓手。然而现阶段数字经济普惠性发展尚未实现，掣肘着其对国内全要素生产率的提升力度。文章在理论分析的基础上，基于熵权TOPSIS法测算了2012-2018年中国数字经济发展水平指数，探讨了中国数字经济对全要素生产率的影响机理。研究发现：数字经济的发展显著提升了中国全要素生产率水平，但区域层面上，东部地区的数字经济发展明显领先于中西部地区，引领着中国全要素生产率快速增长。从全要素生产率的分解指标来看，数字经济推动了技术效率提升，但现阶段国内关键核心技术环节薄弱以及数字产业化带来的人才和资金的虹吸效应导致数字经济对技术进步产生了阻碍作用。此外，当前数字经济对不同产业的渗透度存在明显的不均衡性，筑高了创新资源的流动壁垒，影响产业间协调创新及合理化布局，进而抑制了对全要素生产率的提升力度。进一步的机制检验表明在创新环境的支持下，人才集聚及金融规模强化了数字经济对全要素生产率的提升力度。