The influence of retailing-mix levers on private label market share: The case of the Italian FMCG market

An in-depth analysis of the impact of retailing-mix levers on private label market share in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Italy is made. The direction and intensity of the impact of assortment, price and sales promotion is measured for different product categories. OLS and GMM regressions run on an IRI Group dataset indicate a strong positive effect of product range, which can be considered as a proxy of on-shelf brand visibility. Increasing private label assortment share thus appears to constitute the key supply-side factor in augmenting sales share on the Italian grocery retailing market.     

Dynamic assortment in the presence of brand heterogeneity

In this paper, we study the dynamic assortment planning problem in the presence of heterogeneous brands. Over a limited selling season, the retailer sells heterogeneous products from one store brand and one national brand. We use the nested multinomial logit (NMNL) framework to model consumer choice process, in which consumers choose first which brand to buy and then a product within that brand. We formulate this problem using the finite-horizon dynamic programming approach. Using available sales transaction data, we estimate the consumer choice behavior and empirically demonstrate existence of brand heterogeneity. Further, our results suggest that ignoring brand heterogeneity will make the retailer’s expected revenues significantly overestimated, and the potential revenue overestimation depends on initial inventories and prices of products of two brands. We finally show that the retailer will benefit from dynamic assortment optimization with the estimated consumer choice model.     

The effect of retail assortment size on perceptions,choice, and sales: Review and research directions

We perform a meta-analytic review of the effect of retail assortment size on consumer perceptions, choice, and retail sales/share using a database comprising of 177 studies obtained from 95 academic papers published during 1970–2021. We define assortment size broadly as the total number of distinct alternatives (options) available to the consumer when he/she makes a choice in a product category. This number of alternatives manifest in the form of a number of brands, number of stock-keeping-units (SKUs), or simply number of items such as different colors or packaging. An increase in assortment size can lead to beneficial effects such as assortment preference, perceived choice satisfaction, confidence, freedom, purchase incidence, sales, and profits, as well as negative consequences such as information overload, increased cognitive effort, choice uncertainty, choice difficulty, and hence choice avoidance. Numerous researchers have reported the effect of assortment size on one or more of these factors. We summarize these effects using a metric called assortment size (net) benefit elasticity by positively valuing the beneficial effects and negatively valuing the harmful effects. Assortment size benefit elasticity is defined as the percent change in net benefit for a 1% change in assortment size. Our meta-analysis reveals that the mean assortment size benefit elasticity across 1936 valid elasticity observations is .082, and this effect is moderated by many study design and environmental factors. We also explore nonlinearity in assortment size effect and whether the effect is different for online vs. offline purchasing. Based on these findings, we list 30 characteristics conducive for assortment addition/deletion and specify several directions for future research.     

The effect of exclusive distribution on the sales of ready-made meals in online retail

This study examines the impact of exclusive distribution on sales for online retailers and the moderating effects of product assortment (width and depth) and within-category competitive intensity on this relationship. This study used panel data for 3285 ready-made meal products which are newly introduced from August 2018 to August 2021 at a leading online grocery retailer in Korea. The random-effects panel regression was applied to test the proposed model. The results show that exclusive distribution increases sales, and this effect is intensified with greater product depth and greater within-category competitive intensity. These findings provide useful implications for retailers to increase their likelihood of success when adopting an exclusive distribution strategy. This study also contributes to expanding the scope of the literature on the effect of exclusive distribution on sales in the context of online retail.     

Exploiting the installed base using cross-merchandising and category destination programs

We investigate two ways to increase sales and customer loyalty by taking advantage of a store's installed base of current customers. We propose a classification of products into two types. Products of Type 1 are products for which consumers have a loyalty to a specific retailer and, as far as possible, always shop at that retailer for these products. The other products (Type 2) are not associated with any retailer and are bought at whichever retailer consumers happen to shop when they plan or remember to buy the product. With this in mind, we test the potential of two marketing tools to help retailers increase their share of sales of the Type 2 segment. Using a category destination program we show that one can successfully transform Type 2 into Type 1 products. Using cross-merchandising promotions, we show that one can increase the sales of Type 2 products thereby gaining a larger share of discretionary purchases than what one would receive from a straight random allocation. Both series of tests yielded significant increases in sales and profits and were deemed successful by the retailers who implemented them.     

An Analysis of Assortment Choice in Grocery Retailing

Consumers in grocery retailing commonly buy bundles of products to accommodate current and future consumption. When all products in a particular bundle share common attributes (and are selected from the same product category), the consumer is said to assemble an assortment. This research examines the impact of assortment variety on the assortment choice process. In particular, we test the prediction that consumers demand less variety for higher quality items. To investigate this relationship, we employ a flexible choice model, suitable for the analysis of assortment choice. The model, based upon the assumption that the utility of purchase of one item in an assortment depends upon the set of items already selected, allows for a general utility structure across the assortment items. We apply the model to household assortment choice histories from the yogurt product category. Substantively, we show that yogurt choice is affected by brand quality perceptions (quality-tier competition). Moreover, we show that reaction to reductions in variety (number of yogurt flavors) is mediated by brand quality perceptions. Taken together, these empirical facts paint a picture of a consumer who is willing to trade-off variety against product quality in assortment choice.     

Market and Product Diversification: The Evidence From Retailing

This study explored the number of international regions in which retailers operate, the assortment of product categories they offer their customers, and the effects of these market and product category diversification strategies on retail sales volumes. The analysis used sales data about 246 global large-scale retail stores from diverse industries and countries of origin. We found that both strategies have positive effects on retail sales volumes. The two strategies interact such that the positive effect of market expansion on retail sales volumes is larger for retailers who also follow a strategy of greater product category diversity.     

Expanding to direct channel: Market coverages as entry barrier

A direct marketer can be either a manufacturer selling directly to the final consumers or a retailer that sells an assortment of products from multiple manufacturers. From a manufacturer's point of view, expanding to an online direct channel seems very attractive because intermediaries can be bypassed in reaching final consumers, while the Internet has substantially lowered the entry barrier. With the rapid diffusion of electronic commerce, numerous manufacturers have been considering a direct online channel as an alternative or a supplement to existing retailer channels. However, we observe in the real market that not many manufacturers are fully engaged in online retailing. One major factor frequently mentioned is the conflict with existing dealers who will not be pleased with a manufacturer's attempt to cannibalize their sales. This paper attempts to provide another explanation by comparing theoretical market coverage of manufacturers in a direct channel and a channel with intermediaries. We show that the direct channel can support fewer firms than the traditional retailer channel does, which becomes an effective entry barrier to latecomers. In equilibrium, the products are positively but finitely differentiated in their qualities, and the top two quality tiers would capture more than 75% of the direct channel's market potential (i.e., the “finiteness property”). Thus latecomers would find it difficult to gain a substantial market share against the existing pioneers in the competitive direct market unless they can find other meaningful ways to differentiate horizontally. The sales data of the online retail industry supports our finding.     

Optimizing and Evaluating Retail Assortments for Infrequently Purchased Products

This article develops a methodology for choosing optimal retail assortments for infrequently purchased products and assessing the robustness of such assortments with regard to shifts in customer preferences. The approach incorporates heterogeneous consumer preferences and uses integer programming to determine optimal retail assortments. The robustness of the resulting assortments is examined using alternative consumer choice assumptions and ranges of parameter values. The methodology is illustrated using adaptive conjoint data collected via the Internet and is assessed against the sales results from an assortment offered by a national retail chain.     

DIRECT PRODUCT PROFITABILITY AND RETAIL SHELF‐SPACE ALLOCATION MODELS

Given an assortment of k products, a retailer must make an important decision on the percentage of space allocated to each of them. Optimization models for this problem have previously shown that an item's space should not simply be given in proportion to its sales or its gross margin (GM). Calculations of Direct Product Profitability (DPP) have improved upon the GM concept, but the present paper is the first (of which we are aware) to integrate the DPP approach into a shelf‐space optimization model.     

Evaluating the impact of VAT-free promotion: the role of loyalty program membership and category characteristics

This study examines the impact of value-added tax (VAT)–free promotions on sales performance. VAT-free promotions are a recently adopted form of price promotions where consumers are exempted from paying the VAT amount across almost all products in the assortment during a limited number of days. They are typically organized once per year and surrounded by a large amount of media attention from the involved retailer. To test the effects of this promotion on store and category sales, and investigate the differences between loyalty program (LP) members and non-LP members, the authors use scanner data from a Dutch durable goods retailer across a range of categories. The results show that VAT-free promotions positively impact store performance. Moreover, the findings indicate that more non-LP members are attracted to the store and that they increase the amount they spend in the store. While LP members also spend more in the store, this increase in shopping basket size does not compensate for the significant drop in the number of LP members that visit the store, leading to an overall decrease in sales coming from LP members during VAT-free days. We furthermore find that the positive effect of VAT-free promotions for non-LP members (rather than LP members) generalizes across all investigated categories. Our results provide key insights for retailers and direct marketers with regard to the effectiveness of VAT-free promotions in order to strategically segment the customer base.

     

Which Products are More Responsive to In-Store Displays: Utilitarian or Hedonic?

In-store displays aim to boost sales of both utilitarian and hedonic products. Noting typical differences in the information processing and purchase behavior evoked by these product types, and building on congruency theory principles, the authors propose that different types of in-store displays (i.e., island, end-of-aisle, or shelf signage) are more appropriate for utilitarian versus hedonic products, and the use of price or product promotions might reinforce these effects. With a database that combines three data sources (scanner, observational, and survey), this article presents an analysis of a market share model at the SKU level. The results confirm that in-store displays have differential effects on sales, depending on their characteristics; congruency between the decision-making process of utilitarian versus hedonic products and the characteristics of in-store display types moderates their effectiveness in terms of SKU sales. Shelf signage strongly increases the sales of utilitarian products, whereas island and end-of-aisle displays increase sales of hedonic product categories more effectively. The use of congruent promotions creates synergistic influences that reinforce these effects. In particular, price promotions improve the impact of shelf signage on utilitarian products, and product promotions strengthen the impacts of island and end-of-aisle displays on hedonic products. These results extend prior research on in-store marketing actions and the nature of utilitarian versus hedonic products, as well as providing recommendations for retailers and manufacturers seeking to optimize their retail space and commercial budgets.     

Redesigning after-sales service: Impact on incumbent product distribution channels

With the growth of multi-channel retailing, many firms that have traditionally relied upon third-party service providers to offer after-sales service (AS) have introduced direct AS channel. While there exist a few studies that examine the effects of adding a direct sales channel on the sales revenue of incumbent channels, there are no studies investigating the effects of adding direct AS channel. This study tries to fill this research gap by exploring cross-channel effects of including AS through the firm's direct brand stores on performance (i.e., revenue, assortment width, and extent of upselling) in both direct and indirect channels. A matched difference-in-difference quasi-experimental design was used to compare the sales outcomes of test and control groups using a five-year longitudinal dataset from a large dual-channel consumer durables firm. Results reveal that providing AS through the firm's direct channel has a positive significant effect on the revenue and upselling in the indirect channel, but no significant impact on assortment width in the indirect channel. However, unlike hypothesized, it results in significantly lower revenue, assortment width, and upselling in the direct channel. We interpret these negative effects as arising from customer confusion and perceived retail crowding. Overall, our research highlights that implementation of going direct with AS should be done with utmost care. Our findings would serve as a building block for future studies that are conducted to understand the dynamic cross-channel effects of introducing direct AS, and would be useful for drawing comparisons and contrasts.     

LOGISTICS AND ASSORTMENT DEPTH IN THE RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN: EVIDENCE FROM GROCERY CATEGORIES

Managing the logistical issues resulting from changes in assortment depth in the retail supply chain is challenging, involving various complex tradeoffs. While increasing assortment depth can increase sales, it also increases inventory‐holding costs and reduces the amount of space for other items. As space is taken from existing items to increase assortment depth, it reduces the inventory‐holding capacity of existing items on the shelf, increasing expected annual cost of lost sales. The paper presents a conceptual model of the relationships between assortment depth, category gross margins, and the logistical concerns resulting from inventory costs and out‐of‐stocks. Evidence for the significance of depth and resulting costs are provided in an examination of 100 product categories from a case study of a retail grocery chain.     

Cross-category sales promotion effects

We introduce a multivariate binomial logit model measuring cross-category dependence and sales promotion effects of a retail assortment. This model requires as data both the market baskets of individual shoppers and the categories currently promoted in a retail outlet. A special section describes the stepwise procedure used to estimate parameters of this model. Its application is demonstrated analyzing 6147 purchases that were acquired in a medium-sized supermarket. We finally discuss the managerial relevance of this model for sales promotion decisions of retail firms.     

The relationship between in-store marketing and observed sales for organic versus fair trade products

To stimulate sales of sustainable products, such as organic and fair trade products, retailers need to know whether their in-store instruments effectively enhance market shares. This study uses sales data and a multilevel modeling approach to explain the market shares of sustainable products according to shelf layout factors, price level, price promotions, and consumer demographics. It argues that the effect of these variables differs between organic versus fair trade products, as buying motives might differ, organic buyers tend to be more loyal, and price is a more informative signal of quality for organic products. Results show that the number of facings has a positive relationship with the market share of fair trade brands, but not with the market share of organic brands. The same holds for the price difference with the leading brand, which is important for fair trade brands but not for organic brands. In contrast, an arrangement of the product category by brand is associated with higher market share for organic brands but not for fair trade brands. Additionally, placement at eye level and clustering of items benefits both types of sustainable brands, whereas they appear to be not very sensitive to price promotions. Finally, higher sales of sustainable products are found in areas where the customer base is older and has a higher education level.     

Performance effects of category assortment and stock allocation decisions for a cash-and-carry wholesaler

This study develops and tests a model of how category assortment, category stock level and within-category stock allocation decisions might affect category sales and stock turnover and reflect category-varying levels of sales heterogeneity and sales volatility. In doing so, it addresses recent calls to consider multiple dimensions of assortment planning. It uses the cash-and-carry wholesaling setting to isolate non-space-related assortment planning and performance variables otherwise difficult to treat in a conventional retailing (e.g. supermarket) context. It develops a structural equation model of how category sales volatility and heterogeneity, as antecedents, might influence both category assortments and stock allocations and thus, in turn, influence category performance.     

Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market

Marketing managers have to forecast the market size and this forecast guides strategic decisions whether to continue exporting, open new factories or expand existing production operations. Forecasting sales and the market size is a challenging task; even more so in emerging markets where data is limited and the market demand is changeable. This research proposes a novel approach that applies diffusion models using car ownership data to forecast car sales. Car ownership data may be easier to access than sales data in emerging markets but marketing managers are more interested in the sales forecast. Researchers propose using diffusion models to forecast the adoption of new products or products which are new to consumers in a market. This research demonstrates that marketing managers can use diffusion models to predict car sales in China where cars are new products to most consumers in this market. Since the majority of car buyers in China are first time buyers, car manufacturers and retailers must also forecast when the market composition will change. This effectively means predicting when first time car buying will start to slow down and repeat/replacement purchase or second hand car purchase will become more important. To forecast both sales and market composition change, marketing managers must choose a robust model. Managers want insights from models that have been tested robustly especially in less stable market conditions. In this context, this study illustrates the value of using a rolling forecast instead of a fixed horizon approach when comparing and choosing which model to use to forecast both sales and market composition change for the Chinese car market.     

Gibrat's law in marketing: The case of liquor brand sales

We test the applicability of Gibrat's Law in the liquor brand market. Basically, we model annual changes in the unit sales of the top fifty liquor brands as white noise. Our results reject this model, but we do find that changes in sales are independent of starting market sales. This leads to the interpretation that brands with above average market share do not tend to gain market share, i.e., initial market share does not affect the subsequent change in market share. Furthermore, brands with above average sales do not have more stable sales than do firms with below average sales. Changes in sales appear highly positively correlated between periods, i.e., brands that gain sales in one period tend to gain sales in the next. Finally, no major liquor type or manufacturer had consistently and significantly greater or lower success across our various annual time periods.     

Modelling the effect of store flyers on supermarket sales: An application to olive oil demand

In this paper we study the effect of store flyers on supermarket sales while controlling for other promotional strategies. We use a dataset of weekly sales of 16 olive oil products from a Spanish supermarket chain during the year 2017. We estimate a dynamic panel data model by GMM which allows us to examine both the short- and long-run effects of displaying products in store flyers. Our estimates show that products being featured in a store flyer exhibit 85 percent higher sales in the short-run, being the effect in the long-run of 109 percent. We also provide evidence that olive oil is a highly price-elastic product. Our estimates also indicate that placing the products on the end-of-aisle increases olive oil sales. Conversely, multibuy promotions are negatively related with sales.