What makes a bank risky? Insights from the optimal capital structure of banks

Assessing the risk of bank failures is the paramount concern of bank regulation. This paper argues that in order to assess the default risk of a bank, it is important to consider its financing decisions as an endogenous dynamic process. We provide a continuous-time model, where banks choose the deposit volume in order to trade off the benefits of earning deposit premiums against the costs that occur at future capital structure adjustments. The bank’s asset value may suffer from shocks and follows a jump-diffusion process.     

How important is capital structure policy to firm survival?

If there is an economically important optimal capital structure, then firms that deviate too far from the optimum will face greater risk of failure or acquisition. Using data from the oil industry we find no significant evidence that capital structure policy affects acquisition or failure probability. Firms appear to increase leverage when they face attractive growth opportunities or when poor operating performance reduces equity value or compels borrowing. Firms are acquired when rapid growth has reduced financial slack. In a clinical examination, we address the question of how firms with persistently low leverage can operate and survive for many years without being targeted for acquisition. Our evidence supports the pecking-order hypothesis, including acquisition among potential financing sources.     

Taxes and capital structure: Understanding firms’ savings

The U.S. non-financial corporate sector became a net lender to the rest of the economy in the early 2000s, with close to half of all publicly-traded firms holding financial assets in excess of their debt liabilities. We develop a simple dynamic model of debt and equity financing where firms strive to accumulate financial assets even though debt is fiscally advantageous relative to equity. Moreover, firms find it optimal to fund additional financial asset holdings through equity revenues. The calibrated model matches well the distribution of public firms’ balance sheets during the 2000s and correctly predicts which firms are net savers.     

The global financial crisis and the capital structure of firms: Was the impact more severe among SMEs and non-listed firms?

Using a dataset covering about 276,998 firms across 75 countries over the period 2004–2011, this paper examines the short-run evolution of firms' capital structures following the start of the global financial crisis and its immediate aftermath, comparing the experience of already levered SMEs, large non-listed firms, and listed companies. We find that firm leverage and debt maturity declined both in advanced economies and in developing countries, even in those that did not experience a crisis. The deleveraging and maturity reduction were particularly significant for non-listed firms, including both SMEs as well as large non-listed companies. For SMEs, these effects were larger in countries with less efficient legal systems, weaker information sharing mechanisms, less developed financial sectors, and with more restrictions on bank entry. In contrast, there is weaker evidence of a significant decline in leverage and debt maturity among listed companies which are typically much larger than other firms and likely to benefit from the “spare tire” of easier access to capital market financing. Though our results are robust to many changes in sample and specification, we cannot rule out that survivorship bias and attrition could affect our estimates to some degree.     

Bank capital and credit market competition: Will competitive pressure lead to higher capital levels?

This paper establishes a theoretical model to study the relationship between credit market competition and bank capital. In the model, bank capital can alleviate the debt overhang problem, and the extent to which banks can enjoy the gain of holding capital is decreasing in the competitive pressure in the credit market. It is shown that credit market competition reduces banks' incentive to hold capital. Deposit insurance also induces banks to hold less capital. In addition, bank capital regulation is welfare improving, and banks may voluntarily hold capital in excess of regulatory minimums.     

Is equity crowdfunding always good? Deal structure and the attraction of venture capital investors

This paper provides evidence that equity crowdfunding has implications for firms long after the capital raised through the campaign is injected. Using a unique dataset of 290 firms that successfully fundraised via the two most prominent UK equity crowdfunding portals, we examine how different shareholder structures, namely the nominee vs. the direct shareholder structure, affect the attraction of venture capital financing. From the comparison with a control group of twin firms that did not receive any external seed financing, we find that a successful equity crowdfunding campaign facilitates the attraction of VC financing. This association is stronger for equity crowdfunding campaigns with a nominee shareholder structure, while it results weaker when the direct shareholder structure is chosen. Compared to a different control sample of angel-backed firms, receiving equity crowdfunding through a nominee structure facilitates the attraction of VC financing.     

Can machines learn capital structure dynamics?

Yes, they can! Machine learning models predict leverage better than linear models and identify a broader set of leverage determinants. They boost the out-of-sample R² from 36% to 56% over OLS and LASSO. The best performing model (random forests) selects market-to-book, industry median leverage, cash and equivalents, Z-Score, profitability, stock returns, and firm size as reliable predictors of market leverage. More precise target estimation yields a 10%–33% faster speed of adjustment and improves prediction of financing actions relative to linear models. Machine learning identifies uncertainty, cash flow, and macroeconomic considerations among primary drivers of leverage adjustments.     

What lures cross-border venture capital inflows?

We investigate if economic factors drive gross and net cross-border venture capital inflows differently. Using a dataset of venture capital investments in European and North American countries from 2000 to 2008, we find that higher expected economic growth goes hand in hand with higher gross as well as net inflows, while higher market capitalization and a more favorable environment for venture capital intermediation entail higher gross inflows, but lower net inflows. The latter two findings may suggest that cross-border venture capital inflows partly compensate for potential limits in domestic venture capital supply. However, the findings may also reflect that venture capitalists’ locational decisions depend on the viability of capital markets.     

Transition to IFRS and compliance with mandatory disclosure requirements: What is the signal?

The present study examines 153 Greek listed companies' compliance with all IFRS mandatory disclosure requirements during 2005 and complements and extends prior literature in the following way. The unique setting i.e., measuring compliance with IFRS mandatory disclosure requirements during the first year of IFRS implementation, allows for examination of the possibility that the changes in the 2004 shareholders' equity and net income, as a result of the adoption of IFRS, constitute explanatory factors for compliance. Thus, this study hypothesises that, in addition to the financial measures and other corporate characteristics that prior literature identifies as proxies for explaining compliance, a significant change in fundamental financial measures, because of the change in the accounting regime, may also explain compliance based on the premises of the relevant disclosure theories. The findings confirm these hypotheses. This study also makes a methodological contribution on measuring compliance with all IFRS mandatory disclosure requirements by using two different disclosure index methods and pointing out the different conclusions may be drawn as a result.     

How does uncertainty influence target capital structure?

This study investigates how uncertainty affects firms’ target capital structure using a panel data set of U.S. public manufacturers between 2003 and 2018 and finds that high-uncertainty firms have 10.1 (8.1) percentage points lower mean book (market) targets than low-uncertainty firms. This study also shows that the uncertainty effect on leverage targets is greater than the impact of firm size, market-to-book ratio, assets tangibility, R&D intensity, and industry median leverage, making uncertainty the most critical among all time-varying determinants of leverage targets. Further, this study finds that heightened uncertainty decreases debt tax shields, increases potential financial distress costs, and exacerbates debtholder–shareholder conflicts, thereby leading to a lower optimal or target leverage ratio.     

Financing China’s unprecedented infrastructure boom: the evolution of capital structure from 1978 to 2015

ABSTRACT

The authors examine the sources of the funds that have financed China’s infrastructure development since 1978. They define the five periods in which this development has taken place in terms of predominant financing: fiscal funds, build-operate-transfer (BOT), treasury bonds, the land financing, and local bonds. The system is characterized by a heavy reliance on debt financing and one-off revenues. These approaches have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability in China. The authors explain why a shift towards the more conventional approach of fiscal funds is necessary.     

Credibility and Multiple SEOs: What Happens When Firms Return to the Capital Market?

Using a sample of firms that conducted multiple seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) from 1995 to 2012, we examine whether firms can build credibility for subsequent SEOs by following through on their stated use of the proceeds from earlier SEOs. We find that firms that state their intention to invest these funds in projects and those that make no such statements, but do invest have relatively more positive announcement returns around subsequent SEO announcements. Our results suggest that the markets are aware of the potential agency costs of equity, have a long memory, and update their beliefs as to the likely use of funds raised by firms.     

Do personal taxes affect capital structure? Evidence from the 2003 tax cut

Because the personal tax treatments of interest and dividend income likely affect the relative cost of debt and equity financing, a sharp change in tax treatment could affect firms' optimal leverage. This paper examines the effect of the 2003 equity income tax cut on firms' debt usage. Because this tax cut affected only individual investors, we can use a difference-in-differences method to identify the effect of personal tax on firms' leverage. Previous research has found that the 2003 tax cut encouraged dividend payouts and reduced the cost of equity, but it provides no link to equilibrium leverage ratios. We estimate that the tax cut causes the affected firms' leverage to decrease by about 5 percentage points. Furthermore, we show that the effects of the tax cut are stronger for firms with lower marginal corporate tax rates and for firms that are not financially constrained, consistent with our theoretical predictions. Overall, we find strong evidence that personal tax is an important determinant of firms' optimal leverage.     

Striking oil: Another puzzle?

Changes in oil prices predict stock market returns worldwide. We find significant predictability in both developed and emerging markets. These results cannot be explained by time-varying risk premia as oil price changes also significantly predict negative excess returns. Investors seem to underreact to information in the price of oil. A rise in oil prices drastically lowers future stock returns. Consistent with the hypothesis of a delayed reaction by investors, the relation between monthly stock returns and lagged monthly oil price changes strengthens once we introduce lags of several trading days between monthly stock returns and lagged monthly oil price changes.     

Public Policy and Accounting Research: What Is to Be Done?

Abstract

Singleton-Green [2010. The communication gap: Why doesn't accounting research make a greater contribution to debates on accounting policy? Accounting in Europe, 7(2), 129–145] argues that a communication gap between researchers and those involved in public debates on accounting problems significantly reduces the impact of accounting research. A new ICAEW report, The Effects of Mandatory IFRS Adoption in the EU: a Review of Empirical Research, tries to bridge the communication gap on the subject that it covers. The report found not only a significant amount of relevant research, but also that its usefulness was limited in various ways. The paper makes a number of recommendations to researchers: they should point out any biases in the data they use, address some issues through field work, not assume that surrounding institutions are unchanged, be careful to understand the specific features of the countries they cover, investigate differences in previous research, and state the economic significance of their findings. The paper also makes recommendations for non-academic participants in public policy debates, including: they should actively promote relevant research, help researchers get access to information, and help ensure that researchers have the incentives to do what is needed to benefit public policy.     

What drives leverage in leveraged buyouts? An analysis of European leveraged buyouts’ capital structure

This paper examines leverage in European private equity‐led leveraged buyouts (LBOs). We use a unique, self‐constructed sample of 126 European private equity (PE)‐sponsored buyouts completed between June 2000 and June 2007. We find that determinants derived from classical capital structure theories do not explain leverage in LBOs, while they do drive leverage in a control group of comparable public firms. Rather, we document that leverage levels in LBOs are related to the prevailing conditions in the debt market. In addition, our results indicate that reputed private equity sponsors use more debt and that secondary buyouts have higher leverage levels.     

The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?

The financial stability of the eurozone depends on its macroeconomic stability and vice versa. We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of these economies by indirect inference and using the resulting empirically-based model to assess possible new policy regimes that could maintain financial stability. The model we have found to fit the facts suggests that substantial gains in stability and consumer welfare are possible if the fiscal authority in each region is given the freedom to respond to its own economic situation. Further gains could come with the restoration of monetary independence to the two regions, in effect creating a second ‘southern euro’ bloc. Enhanced fiscal flexibility increases fluctuations in debt and deficit ratios to GDP while keeping average ratios stable, maintaining solvency. A reformed Stability and Growth Pact could be limited to monitoring solvency.     

FinTech and capital allocation efficiency: Another equity-efficiency dilemma?

The emergence of financial technology (FinTech) introduces new tools and solutions to lending and equity markets, and has significantly increased the accessibility of marginal firms to funds, a property known as financial inclusion. However, little is known about whether such inclusion is acquired at the cost of efficiency. This paper provides evidence on how FinTech affects the efficiency of capital allocation using firm-level data for China over the period of 2010–2020. The development of FinTech is measured as the number of FinTech firms in a city. We find interesting evidence that the growth of FinTech reduces the capital available to more efficient firms. The evidence stands robust at both the firm- and industry-level. We identify two mechanisms that can explain the inefficiencies of FinTech in capital allocation. The first mechanism involves FinTech-induced competition in the lending market, and the second explanation relates to the property of equity-efficiency dilemma of FinTech. Finally, we show that the inefficiencies of FinTech in capital allocation arise mainly from its impact on debt financing.     

What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25,000 Greek firms' balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is examined within a dynamic investment model. Robust GMM estimates of the investment rate model reveal a high degree of heterogeneity among these sectors. Overall uncertainty affects negatively investment performance and this effect substantially increased in the years of crisis. Agriculture and Mining are the least affected and the most affected ones include Manufacturing, Real Estate and Hotels. Focusing on the response of investment to uncertainty, it emerges that (relative) smaller firms are affected more compared to larger ones.