The double-edged sword effect of diversified operation on pre- and post-loan risk in the government-led Chinese commercial banks

Under the background of China’s deregulation of financial institutions since 2004, Chinese commercial banks have undergone remarkable change from traditional lending activities to universal fee-based activities. This paper explores the effect of diversified operation on bank credit activities. We find that diversification can reduce pre-loan risk but increase post-loan risk. Besides, enhanced disclosure requirement of other comprehensive income can mitigate pre- and post-loan risk under diversified operation. Additionally, in the state-owned commercial banks where government function is primary, diversification reduces both pre- and post-loan risk. This paper aims to reveal the double-edged sword effect of diversification in the Chinese commercial banks which are more government-led.     

Non-interest income,profitability, and risk in banking industry: A cross-country analysis

Using bank accounting data for 22 countries in Asia over the period 1995–2009, this article applies the dynamic panel generalized method of moments technique to investigate the impacts of non-interest income on profitability and risk for 967 individual banks. We find that non-interest activities of Asian banks reduce risk, but do not increase profitability on a broad sample basis. Specifically, when considering bank specialization and a country's income level, the results become complicated. Non-interest activities decrease profitability as well as increases risk for savings banks. The impact is also different for commercial, cooperative, and investment banks either by increasing profitability or reducing risk. On the other hand, non-interest activities raise risk for banks in high income countries, while increasing profitability or reducing risk for banks in middle and low income countries. Finally, our results reveal that the persistence of risk is greatly affected by bank specialization and a country's income level, as all risk variables present persistence from one year to the next. Our findings suggest that the type of bank specialization matters for the effect of diversifying revenue sources.     

Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America

We examine the network spillovers, portfolio allocation characteristics and diversification potential of bank returns from developed and emerging America. We draw our results by applying a directional spillover index, the tail-event driven network (TENET) and nonlinear portfolio optimization methods on bank returns. We find that the spillovers and connectedness among banks from emerging America are noticeably smaller than those among banks from developed America. The largest emerging market spillover transmitters and receivers are the banks from Brazil, followed by the banks from Chile. The largest developed market spillover transmitter is JP Morgan Chase. The connectedness among banks from developed America is dominated by the banks from the USA, relative to those from Canada. The total connectedness of the emerging market banks is more intensified than that of the banks from developed America due to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The portfolio optimization shows that in developed America, the largest banks from the USA are the largest risk contributors to total portfolio risk, whereas the banks from Canada contribute the least risk. In emerging America, the banks from Brazil contribute the most risk to total portfolio risk while the banks from Peru and one bank from Colombia contribute the least risk. The portfolio of banks from emerging America offers greater diversification potential and lower total portfolio allocation risk.     

Understanding the consequences of diversification on financial stability

In this paper, we study the consequences of diversification on financial stability and social welfare using an agent based model that couples the real economy and a financial system. We validate the model against its ability to reproduce several stylized facts reported in real economies. We find that the risk of an isolated bank failure (i.e. idiosyncratic risk) is decreasing with diversification. In contrast, the probability of joint failures (i.e. systemic risk) is increasing with diversification which results in more downturns in the real sector. Additionally, we find that the system displays a “robust yet fragile” behaviour particularly for low diversification. Moreover, we study the impact of introducing preferential attachment into the lending relationships between banks and firms. Finally, we show that a regulatory policy that promotes bank–firm credit transactions that reduce similarity between banks can improve financial stability whilst permitting diversification.

     

Foreign banks and short-term macroeconomic fluctuations: Do financial development and regions matter?

In this paper, we investigate the association between bank integration, measured with the share of foreign banks in the banking industry, and macroeconomic volatility in emerging economies. We find a negative and significant relationship between bank integration and short-run fluctuations in output, consumption and investment, controlling for financial development, bank concentration and the real effective exchange rate. However, this relationship is found to be positive at high levels of financial development. We also explore the association at the regional level and show that the presence of foreign banks in Latin America is negatively and significantly correlated with macroeconomic volatility both in normal times and times of crisis. Despite widespread concerns in emerging Europe, which experienced greater financial vulnerability during the global financial crisis, we find no significant association between growth volatilities and bank integration.     

商业银行多元化经营对绩效和风险的影响研究--基于53家银行的面板分析

本文运用2003-2013年间我国53家商业银行的面板数据,通过建立多元化风险模型,对商业银行收入结构多元化、经营绩效以及风险的关系进行了系统分析。得出结论：规模较大的银行在专业型多元化经营业务成熟的基础上,转而发展综合型多元化经营业务,有利于银行绩效提升,但必须注重对风险的把控;而规模较小的商业银行因受地域、规模等因素的限制并不适合开展综合型多元化经营业务,应在主营业务发展充分的基础上,以发展专业型多元化经营业务为主。最后,根据实证结果提出相关的对策建议。     

The impacts of competition and shadow banking on profitability: Evidence from the Chinese banking industry

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on banking profitability by testing the impacts of competition and shadow banking on bank profitability using a sample of 100 Chinese commercial banks over 2003–2013 with 417 and 395 observations. The current study fills the gaps in the empirical studies by examining the competition in different banking markets (i.e. deposit market, loan market and non-interest income market) in China and further evaluating their impacts on bank profitability. The findings show that the non-interest income market has a higher level of competition compared to the deposit market and loan market. It is further reported that a lower level of competition in deposit market leads to an increase in the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. Finally, the results suggest that shadow banking improves the profitability of Chinese banks.     

Institutions and Bank Performance: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis*

This article investigates the impact of institutions on bank efficiency and technology, using a stochastic frontier analysis of a data set of 7,959 banks across 136 countries over 10 years. The results confirm the importance of well‐developed institutions for the efficient operation of commercial banks. Furthermore, the insights reveal the impact of institutional reforms in improving bank efficiency. The results are robust to adjustments in country‐specific effects, achieved by including country dummies, as well as across different risk profiles. Moreover, they provide empirical evidence in support of the public view of the banking sector.     

Does CEO gender matter for bank risk?

This paper addresses the relation between CEO gender and bank risk. We exploit a unique dataset of 365 Polish cooperative banks, 42% of which are run by female CEOs. We find that banks headed by female CEOs are less risky: they report higher capital adequacy and equity to assets ratios. Credit risk in female-led banks is not different from male-led banks, and therefore higher capital adequacy does not stem from lower asset quality and is likely to be linked to higher risk aversion of female CEOs. Our evidence supports the view that women are more risk averse bank CEOs than men. Our findings suggest that gender quotas in bank boards can contribute to reduce risk-taking behavior.     

Should banks diversify or focus? Know thyself: The role of abilities

The paper investigates whether diversification/focus across assets, industries and borrowers affects bank performance when banks’ abilities (screening and monitoring) are considered. The initial results show that diversification (focus) at the asset, industry and borrower levels is expected to decrease (increase) returns. However, once banks’ screening and monitoring abilities are controlled for, the effect of diversification/focus either gets weaker or disappears. Further, in some cases, these abilities enhance banks’ long-run performance, but in others they prove to be costly, at least, in the short run. Thus, the level of monitoring and screening abilities should be taken into consideration in understanding, planning and implementing diversification/focus strategies.     

State-controlled banks and income smoothing. Do politics matter?

This paper uses a new dataset to reassess the relationship between government ownership and income smoothing of commercial banks. We also evaluate how political connections affect the impact of government ownership on earnings management. We find that banks with more state-controlled shareholders located in developing countries tend to have more incentives to smooth income. The paper finds no significant difference in earnings manipulation between government-controlled and non-government banks in developed countries. Next, to investigate whether the income smoothing behavior of state-controlled banks is driven by political objectives, the paper tests whether this behavior widens during national election years; the results provide strong support for this conjecture. The magnitude of the income smoothing behavior also varies with different countries and electoral characteristics. These findings suggest that the political channel plays an important role in determining the income smoothing incentives of state-controlled banks, especially in developing countries.     

资本账户开放缩窄了商业银行利差吗？——来自41个新兴市场经济体的证据

银行利差反映银行业效率,研究资本账户开放对银行利差的影响及作用机理具有重要的现实意义。构建一个包含异质性企业的多部门分析框架,从微观层面剖析资本账户开放影响银行利差的内在机制,并运用41个新兴市场经济体国家1996—2016年的数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明：资本账户开放显著降低了商业银行利差,法定型和事实型开放指数每增加一单位标准差,银行利差分别下降0.68和0.90个百分点。由此可见,加快推进资本账户开放是新常态下提升银行业效率,降低社会融资成本,进而实现经济高质量发展的重要途径。商业银行应大力拓展非利息业务,促进产品和业务升级,创造新的盈利增长点,以弥补利差缩窄带来的不利影响。     

Commercial property prices and bank performance

We seek to assess the relationship between commercial property price movements and the behavior and performance of individual banks in a range of industrialized economies, extending the existing micro literature on bank performance. Our results suggest that commercial property prices tend to be positively associated with bank lending and profitability, and negatively associated with banks’ net interest margin and bad loan ratios. Further extensions show that the degree to which such a relationship holds is related to the size of the bank. The results underline the relevance of commercial property prices as a macroprudential variable that warrants scrutiny by the authorities.     

Oil structural shocks,bank-level characteristics,and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems

By performing a structural VAR analysis on oil price shocks, we provide an evidence on how the origins of oil price shocks impact the risk level of banks in oil-exporting countries and whether bank-level characteristics can influence the sensitivity of risk to oil shocks. When conducting panel regression analysis, we document the following findings. First, not all shocks have the same effect on bank risk. Due to oil supply shocks, the increase in oil price raises bank risk, whereas the similar increase in price due to economic expansion or oil-market specific demand reduces that risk. Second, the business model (whether the bank is Islamic or conventional), size, income diversification, profitability, and financial leverage influence the bank risk exposure to oil shocks differently. Third, the two major recent crises (global financial crises and COVID-19 pandemic) magnified bank risk exposure to oil supply shocks and speculative oil demand shocks. Overall, the structural oil shocks explain a large fraction of the variation in financial stability in GCC countries.     

Economies of scale and organization efficiency in banking

Previous studies attempting to assess economies of scale in banking firms have largely relied upon cost functions. The profit-function approach enjoys several important advantages over the cost-function method, consequently that is the approach used in this study. A risk-adjusted profit function estimates economies of scale of unit and branch banks; and the effects of bank holding-company affiliation on the level of bank profits is also examined. The results indicate larger economies of scale for branch banks than for unit banks; and bank holding-company affiliates were found to be more efficient than independent banks.     

国有商业银行最优规模选择

我国国有商业银行资产规模的扩大并没有带来规模经济。本文从现实、理论及银行风险控制管理等角度对商业银行的最优规模问题进行了经济学分析，通过中美两国商业银行规模及布局进行比较，提出了银行规模调整的政策建议，并分析了近阶段国有商业银行规模调整的侧重点。     

Explaining Bank Productivity in Ghana

The objective of this paper is to examine productivity changes among Ghanaian banks. The Malmquist productivity index is employed to estimate total factor productivity changes and its components on a panel of 18 banks from 2003 to 2011. The results indicate that productivity growth was attributable to the catch‐up effect of efficiency changes. We also find productivity growth across three categories of bank size to be driven by efficiency changes. From a panel regression analysis, we identify size, concentration, income diversification and risk as the factors that explain productivity differences among Ghanaian banks. Recommendations for improving bank productivity are derived from the results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreign bank lending during a crisis: The impact of financial regulations

This study examines foreign bank lending during crises by using data on 1,558 individual banks in Asian and Latin American countries during the period 1987-2013. Our results reveal that, in a crisis period, Asian banks with a higher level of foreign ownership tend to reduce their lending. Nevertheless, during crises banks consistently increase their lending in order to support their borrowers; in fact, in Latin America, crises stimulate foreign banks to lend more. Our evidence on lending during a crisis supports credit rationing theories with a flight to quality. The international substitution effect also holds based on our results. Taking financial structures and regulation into consideration, for banks with more foreign ownership in a highly concentrated financial system in Asia, the crisis has less effect on a cut in lending, while it has a greater effect on cuts in lending for countries with a higher level of government-owned assets. This paper contributes to the existing literature on the bank lending channel and provides implications for policymakers.     

On the periphery of the international dollar standard: Canada,Latin America,and East Asia

This paper focuses on how the world dollar standard works in two respects. The first is the dollar as a benign facilitator of international exchange both in private and official transacting. The second is the possibility of dollar encroachment on the domestic domains of weaker currencies. But this encroachment is quite different across more mature industrial economies such as Canada with long-term bond markets in comparison to more extreme encroachment in Latin America and less extreme in East Asia where domestic bond markets barely exist. It examines the risks in alternative exchange rate regimes for emerging markets where the term to maturity of finance is short, with external liabilities all dominated in foreign exchange, largely dollars. Problems faced by central banks in regulating money and exchange rates, and bank regulators in limiting default risks, are jointly considered.     

Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile

We analyze the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies in three regions that have different resource endowments. The existing literature on emerging economies remains inconclusive on how regional factors and resource characteristics affect the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. We show that (1) exports in Europe and Central Asia are driven by oil more than East Asia and the Pacific and that (2) policy makers in East Asia and the Pacific should be concerned about real exchange appreciation following a positive oil shock to mitigate losses in the non-oil export market. Analysis by resource endowment further reveals that, in less-resource-intensive economies, an oil price shock causes large variations in consumption and has a negative and persistent impact on the real gross domestic product (GDP). In mineral-exporting economies, real GDP and interest rates are driven largely by oil price shocks. The response of real GDP in mineral-exporting economies is short lived. In oil-exporting economies, only real GDP has a large variation in response to oil price shocks. Our findings highlight the need for customized policy responses to oil price shocks, depending on resource endowments, as we show that a “one size fits all" policy does not exist.