The nexus between financial integration and real economy: Solow-growth model concept

This paper aims to investigate the nexus between financial integration and the real economy in ASEAN + 3 economies based on the concept of Solow-Growth Model. The equity indices as a proxy for financial markets are collected from each ASEAN + 3 members and are segmented between two periods; before and after the financial cooperation agreement period. The finding presents several outcomes; 1) no cointegration nexus is found in the system during the pre-agreement periods; 2) the markets are found cointegrated during the post-agreement period, 3) financial integration is found to influence the real sectors of ASEAN + 3 economies. Finally, this study offers policy implications to improve financial integration for stabilizing the real economy.     

Exact inference and optimal invariant estimation for the stability parameter of symmetric α-stable distributions

Hill estimation (Hill, 1975), the most widespread method for estimating tail thickness of heavy-tailed financial data, suffers from two drawbacks. One is that the optimal number of tail observations to use in the estimation is a function of the unknown tail index being estimated, which diminishes the empirical relevance of the Hill estimation. The other is that the hypothesis test of the underlying data lying in the domain of attraction of an α-stable law (α < 2) or of a normal law (α ≥ 2) for finite samples, is performed on the basis of the asymptotic distribution, which can be different from those for finite samples. In this paper, using the Monte Carlo technique, we propose an exact test method for the stability parameter of α-stable distributions which is based on the Hill estimator, yet is able to provide exact confidence intervals for finite samples. Our exact test method automatically includes an estimation procedure which does not need the assumption of a known number of observations on the distributional tail. Empirical applications demonstrate the advantages of our new method in comparison with the Hill estimation.     

Command-and-control: Alternative futures of geoengineering in an age of global weirding

In July 2012, Russ George, the founder of Planktos Inc., organized efforts to dump 100 tons of iron sulfate off the coast of Canada to engineer a plankton bloom that would, ostensibly, absorb carbon dioxide and store it in the depths of the Pacific Ocean. As George's geoengineering experiment is one of the largest and first of its kind, many were quick to denounce his rogue action while others were delighted to see that he succeeded as a large algae bloom was reported to have emerged. Using the George event as a point of entry for exploring alternative futures of geoengineering in an age of global weirding, this project fuses the 2 × 2 scenario modeling technique with the “Mānoa School” four-futures method by situating command and control, along X (control) and Y (command) axes as two critical uncertainties and key drivers of change that will impact the design, development, and diffusion of climate mitigation engineering initiatives, which some see as holding the only solution to avert global catastrophe and others condemn as a postnormal remedy.     

Predicting firms' corporate governance choices: Evidence from Korea

This paper contributes to a new literature on the factors that affect firms' corporate governance practices. We find that regulatory factors are highly important, largely because Korean rules impose special governance requirements on large firms (assets > 2 trillion won). Industry factors, firm size, and firm risk are also important. Other firm-specific factors only modestly affect governance even when they are statistically significant. This suggests that many Korean firms do not choose their governance to maximize share price. Among firm-specific factors, the most significant are size (larger firms are better governed) and firm risk (riskier firms are better governed). Long-term averages of profitability and equity finance need are significant, where short-term averages are not. This is consistent with “sticky governance”, in which firms alter their governance slowly in response to economic factors.     

How corporate governance affect firm value? Evidence on a self-dealing channel from a natural experiment in Korea

Prior work in emerging markets provides evidence that better corporate governance predicts higher market value, but very little evidence on the specific channels through which governance can increase value. We provide evidence, from a natural experiment in Korea, that reduced tunneling is an important channel. Korean legal reform in 1999 changed the board structure of “large” firms (assets > 2 trillion won) relative to smaller firms. In event studies of the reform events, we show that large firms whose controllers have incentive to tunnel earn strong positive returns, relative to mid-sized firms. In panel regressions over 1998–2004, we also show that better governance moderates the negative effect of related-party transactions on value and increases the sensitivity of firm profitability to industry profitability (consistent with less tunneling).     

Advances in international accounting: A retrospective commentary

International accounting research made huge strides over the last 30 years. Advances in International Accounting was first published in 1987 and ends in December 2016 having published over 400 articles to help advance our understanding of various topics in international accounting. This retrospective commentary provides a brief history of the journal with an emphasis on its editors, editorial boards, expanse of articles, and significance of its contributions to the literature.     

Nonprofessional investors' perceptions of the incremental value of continuous auditing and continuous controls monitoring: An experimental investigation

In this study, we investigate nonprofessional investors' perceptions of the incremental value of additional assurance provided by continuous auditing (CA) and continuous controls monitoring (CCM) relative to traditional periodic auditing. We also examine whether nonprofessional investors' perceptions of incremental value of CA and CCM depend on whether the procedure is performed by internal or external auditors, given that external auditors are likely to be perceived as more independent and objective than internal auditors. We conduct two experiments, one using 120 nonprofessional investors recruited by a national survey company, and the second using 184 participants recruited via Amazon's Mechanical Turk platform. The first experiment employed a 2 × 2 between-participants design in which we manipulate the type of assurance (CA or CCM) and the source of assurance (internal or external auditors). The second experiment was identical to the first experiment, with the addition of a fifth condition to test a conjecture stemming from the results of the first experiment. The results from both experiments indicate that although nonprofessional investors believe that continuous auditing decreases the likelihood of material errors and asset misappropriation, nonprofessional investors do not concomitantly increase their investment upon learning about the implementation of these sophisticated continuous assurance techniques. Evidence from the second experiment provides support for the contention that the reason why nonprofessional investors do not increase their investment pursuant to implementation of CA or CCM is due to the salience of the additional costs of these techniques. These results have important implications for firms considering the implementation of additional assurance procedures such as CA and CCM.     

The importance of size in private equity: Evidence from a survey of limited partners

Using a comprehensive survey, we show that investors with a larger capital allocation to private equity are more specialized − measured by the degree to which the investor focuses on private equity rather than other classes of investments − and have a wider scope of due diligence and investment activities. Other investor characteristics (experience, type, location, compensation structure, number of funds under management) play no role. In particular, endowments are not special according to the survey measures. These results are consistent with the changing LP–GP relationship in private equity as capital is increasingly concentrated in the hands of large investors.     

Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors

Studies of predictive regressions analyze the case where y_t is predicted by x_t ? 1 with x_t being first-order autoregressive, AR(1). Under some conditions, the OLS-estimated predictive coefficient is known to be biased. We analyze a predictive model where y_t is predicted by x_t ? 1, x_t ? 2,… x_t ? p with x_t being autoregressive of order p, AR(p) with p > 1. We develop a generalized augmented regression method that produces a reduced-bias point estimate of the predictive coefficients and derive an appropriate hypothesis testing procedure. We apply our method to the prediction of quarterly stock returns by dividend yield, which is apparently AR(2). Using our method results in the AR(2) predictor series having insignificant effect, although under OLS, or the commonly assumed AR(1) structure, the predictive model is significant. We also generalize our method to the case of multiple AR(p) predictors.     

The effect of Sarbanes-Oxley on the timely disclosure of restricted stock trading

Our paper investigates the effect of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) on the disclosure timeliness of restricted stock trading. Insiders selling restricted stock are required to file a Form 144 because the stock is restricted and also a Form 4 because they are an insider. We confirm that mandatory filing requirements under Section 403 of SOX reduced the Form 4 disclosure delay for restricted stock transactions from 24 days in the pre-SOX period to the mandated 2 days in the post-SOX period. Although SOX did not mandate changes to Form 144 filings, we expect that disclosure timeliness of Form 144 filings is likely impacted by SOX. We find that Form 144 filings of restricted stock sales have become less timely. In the post-SOX period, Form 144, the intent to sell restricted stock, is almost always reported after the Form 4 disclosure of the executed trade. Thus, an unintended consequence of SOX is that by making the Form 4 filing more timely than the Form 144, market participants will know about a trade sooner, but have less information about the type of equity traded. An implication of this finding is that Section 403 of SOX may not have unambiguously improved investor protection as intended.     

Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets

Using two newly available ultrahigh-frequency datasets, we investigate empirically how frequently one can sample certain foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury security returns without contaminating estimates of their integrated volatility with market microstructure noise. Using the standard realized volatility estimator, we find that one can sample dollar/euro returns as frequently as once every 15 to 20 s without contaminating estimates of integrated volatility; 10-year Treasury note returns may be sampled as frequently as once every 2 to 3 min on days without U.S. macroeconomic announcements, and as frequently as once every 40 s on announcement days. Using a simple realized kernel estimator, this sampling frequency can be increased to once every 2 to 5 s for dollar/euro returns and to about once every 30 to 40 s for T-note returns. These sampling frequencies, especially in the case of dollar/euro returns, are much higher than those that are generally recommended in the empirical literature on realized volatility in equity markets. The higher sampling frequencies for dollar/euro and T-note returns likely reflect the superior depth and liquidity of these markets.     

The home bias is here to stay

Over the last 15 years, dramatically decreasing foreign investment costs have not reduced the home bias. We show that the home bias induced by a given cost is proportional to the factor ρ/(1 − ρ), where ρ is the average correlation between markets. This factor is very sensitive to the correlation, especially when the correlation is high. Empirically, correlations have been steadily increasing from 0.4 in the 90’s to about 0.9 today. Thus, the decreasing extra costs are increasingly magnified, explaining the persistence of the home bias, and predicting its continuation.     

Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a variety of specifications for the error term. In brief, we find evidence that a lower degree of integration is associated with lower data frequencies. In particular, when the data are collected every 10 min there are several cases with values of d strictly smaller than 1, implying a mean-reverting behaviour; however, for higher data frequencies the unit root null cannot be rejected. This holds for all four series examined, namely Open, High, Low and Last observations for the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate and for different sample periods.     

Intraday stock price effects of ad hoc disclosures: the German case

This paper examines intraday stock price and trading volume effects caused by ad hoc disclosures in Germany. The evidence suggests that the stock prices react within 30 min after the ad hoc disclosures. The adjustment of the trading volume needs even more time. We find no evidence for abnormal high price nor trading volume reactions in the five transactions before ad hoc disclosures. The bigger the company, which announces an ad hoc disclosure, the less severe the abnormal price effect, following the announcement, is. The higher the trading volume at the last trading day before the announcement, the higher the price and trading volume effects, after the ad hoc disclosures, are.     

Gaining a competitive edge through acquisitions: Evidence from the telecommunications industry

I study the announcement effects of all acquisitions in the recent telecom wave on both the acquirers and their industry competitors. I find evidence of negative rival returns (? 0.55%, t-stat = 2.47) by focusing on non-horizontal acquisitions where rivals are less susceptible to experience positive returns due to increased market power or expectation that some will become future targets themselves. I find that this effect is worse for closer rivals defined as having similar size and being in the same primary service area as the acquirer. Competitor returns are positively correlated with those of the acquirers suggesting that the negative impact experienced by competitors is driven by acquisitions in which the acquirer itself is earning negative abnormal returns. Results are broadly consistent with the Competitive Advantage Hypothesis that posits acquisitions are a means of corporate restructuring in a changing environment, awarding the acquirer a competitive edge and thereby making these acquisitions costly for their non-merging competitors.     

Dividend privileges and the value of voting rights: Evidence from Italy

The present paper proposes a new measure of the voting right, the Relative Vote Segment, which incorporates dividend privileges into the inferior class of shares. We test and compare it against the standard Relative Price Difference and the Nenova (2003) measure using 1998–2008 data from Italy, a country where dividend privileges are relevant. Results show that when dividend privileges are considered, the average voting right equals + 35.63%, while its estimated value corresponds to a significantly lower + 20.35% and + 1.29% with the Relative Price Difference and the Nenova (2003) measure, respectively. Negative values of voting rights drop significantly with our methodology. Results become even more clear-cut when we clean the sample of possible measurement errors. As far as the determinants of the voting premium are concerned, the choice of the measure does not appear to have a significant impact, as long as the dividend differences are controlled for.     

Latency,liquidity and price discovery

The speed of trading is an important factor in modern security markets, although relatively little is known about the effect of speed on liquidity and price discovery, two important aspects of market quality. On April 23, 2007, Deutsche Boerse made an important upgrade to their trading system. With the 8.0 release of Xetra, system latency was reduced from 50 ms to 10 ms. Subsequently, both quoted and effective spreads decreased, which are mainly concentrated in small- and medium-sized stocks. This increase in liquidity is due to dramatically lower adverse selection costs that were only partially translated into higher liquidity. We interpret this as a decrease in the competition between liquidity suppliers who are able to increase their revenues by more than 90 million euros. The contribution of quotes to price discovery doubles to 90% post upgrade, indicating that prices are more efficient.     

Consumer payment choice: Merchant card acceptance versus pricing incentives

Using transaction-level data from a three-day shopping diary, we estimate a model of consumer payment instrument choice that disentangles the effect of merchant card acceptance from credit card pricing incentives (rewards) at the point-of-sale. The lack of merchant card acceptance plays a large role in the use of cash, especially for low-value transactions (less than 25 dollars). Participation in a credit card rewards program induces a shift toward credit card usage at the expense of both debit cards and cash. In contrast, changes in the amount of rewards (ad valorem) has a small or inelastic effect on the probability of paying with credit cards. Our findings highlight the importance of the two-sided nature of retail payment systems and provide key insights into consumer and merchant behaviour.     

Emerging markets: Is the trend still your friend?

Using an extensive sample consisting of 30 emerging countries and 38 years of data, we examine the profitability of two momentum and two trend following strategies. Over the entire sample, we find excess returns that are economically and statistically significant for all four strategies. Furthermore, we show that the significance of the excess returns remains after adjusting for macroeconomic risk factors. In addition, we find that in spite of their relative neglect, trend strategies frequently demonstrate superior performance, compared to momentum strategies. However, contrary to previous research, we do not find that time series momentum strategies outperform cross-sectional momentum strategies. Finally, we show that the effectiveness of the alternative strategies is largely diminished once transactions costs and liberalizations in emerging markets are considered.     

Risk management implications of time-inconsistency: Model updating and recalibration of no-arbitrage models

A widespread approach in the implementation of asset pricing models is based on the periodic recalibration of its parameters and initial conditions to eliminate any conflict between model-implied and market prices. Modern no-arbitrage market models facilitate this procedure since their solution can usually be written in terms of the entire initial yield curve. As a result, the model fits (by construction) the interest rate term structure. This procedure is, however, generally time inconsistent since the model at time t = 0 completely specifies the set of possible term structures for any t > 0. In this paper, we analyze the pros and cons of this widespread approach in pricing and hedging, both theoretically and empirically. The theoretical section of the paper shows (a) under which conditions recalibration improves the hedging errors by limiting the propagation of an initial error, (b) that recalibration introduces time-inconsistent errors that violate the self-financing argument of the standard replication strategy. The empirical section of the paper quantifies the trade-off between (a) and (b) under several scenarios. First, we compare this trade-off for two economies with and without model specification error. Then, we discuss the trade-off when the underlying economy is not Markovian.