Great Places to Work®: Resilience in Times of Crisis

We study the resilience of the “100 Best Companies to Work for in America” in times of financial crisis by analyzing their long‐term financial performance. Apart from implementing methods that tackle the statistical problems of stock returns, we use a conditional model to measure financial performance in periods of market growth (bull markets) and market downturn (bear markets). We find that best places to work are indeed resilient in times of crisis since neither their financial performance nor their systematic risk are affected during bear markets: top companies continue to outperform the market during periods of crisis, and the performance of lower‐ranked great workplaces does not deteriorate. Moreover, we find that previous studies were overestimating performance, and only great workplaces on the top half of the rankings exhibit positive excessive returns. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Predictability in sovereign bond returns using technical trading rules: Do developed and emerging markets differ?

The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in each class. Empirical results show that (i) investing in sovereign bond markets is predictable, based on the buy-sell signals generated by trading rules, with the predictability of the emerging Asian markets being significantly higher than those of the advanced markets; (ii) the predictability is generally higher when the US tightens its monetary policies or undergoes recession or a financial crisis; (iii) two-thirds of sovereign bond markets have a higher predictability when we use a machine learning algorithm to determine the best trading rule strategy; and (iv) the predictability of a sovereign bond market is higher when the economy has a less effective government, lower regulatory quality, lower degree of financial openness, higher political risk, lower income and faster real money growth. Our results suggest that shocks originating from US monetary policy or economic conditions could have a considerable spillover effect on sovereign bond markets, particularly the emerging Asian markets.     

Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies

The global financial crisis (2007–2009) saw sharp declines in stock markets around the world, affecting both advanced and emerging markets. In this paper we test for the existence of equity market contagion originating from the US to advanced and emerging markets during the crisis period. Using a latent factor model, we provide strong evidence of contagion effects in both advanced and emerging equity markets. In the aggregate equity market indices, contagion from the US explains a large portion of the variance in stock returns in both advanced and emerging markets. However, in the financial sector indices we find less evidence of contagion than in the aggregate indices, and this is particularly the case for the advanced markets. The results suggest that contagion effects are not strongly related to high levels of global integration.     

The symmetrical and positive relationship between crude oil and nominal exchange rate returns

This paper investigates both the static and dynamic relationships between daily crude oil returns and US dollar exchange rate returns using a test for symmetrical exceedance correlations and two mixture copulas. Empirical results demonstrate that the exceedance correlations between oil and exchange rate returns are both positive and symmetrical, indicating that the two return rates move in the same direction and that the relationship between them is symmetrical for the upper and lower quantiles. The crude oil-exchange rate relationship is sensitive to the sample period investigated. Before the 1998 financial crisis, exceedance correlations are close to zero, showing almost no correlation between the oil and exchange rate markets. However, the positive co-movement has significantly increased since the 2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, Kendall's tau coefficients of two symmetrized copulas greatly increase after the 2008 financial crisis, revealing that the probability of both returns moving in the same direction is higher than it is in the opposite direction.     

Herding behavior,market sentiment and volatility: Will the bubble resume?

This paper aims to investigate herding behavior and its impact on volatility under uncertainty. We apply a cross-sectional absolute deviation approach as well as Quantile Regression methods to capture the herding behavior in daily and monthly frequencies in US markets over several time-periods including the global financial crisis. In a novel attempt we modify the empirical CSAD herding modeling by introducing implied volatility as a measure of agent risk expectations. Our findings indicate that herding tends to be intense under extreme market conditions, as depicted in the upper high quantile range of the conditional distribution of returns. During crisis periods herding is observed at the beginning of the crisis and becomes insignificant towards the end. The US market herding behavior exhibits time-varying dynamic trading patterns that can be attributed e.g., to overconfidence or excessive “flight to quality” features, mostly observed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Moreover, implied volatility reveals asymmetric patterns and plays a key role in enforcing irrational behavior.     

The Russia–Ukraine conflict and investor psychology in financial markets

This study examines the effect of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on global financial markets and the resulting changes in investor psychology. We have analysed weekly data from January 2021 to March 2023, including indicators such as gross national income, Bitcoin historical price, Standard and Poor 500 index, US consumer price index, US dollar index, and investor psychology index, using a variety of econometric techniques. Our findings reveal a positive and significant correlation between investor psychology and market returns. These results highlight the importance of monitoring investor psychology during times of conflict as it can greatly impact investment decisions in financial markets, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers.     

Intraday effect of news on emerging European forex markets: An event study analysis

We analyze the impact of euro zone/German and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intraday data from 2011–2015. Our comprehensive analysis of the wide variety of macroeconomic information during the post-GFC period shows that: (i) macroeconomic announcements affect the value of the new EU country exchange rates, (ii) the origin of the announcement matters, (iii) the type of announcement matters, (iv) different types of news (good, bad or neutral) result in different reactions, (v) markets react not only after the news release but also before, (vi) when the U.S. dollar is the base currency the impact of the news is larger than in the case of the euro, (vii) announcements on ECB monetary policy result in stronger effects than those of the Fed, (viii) temporary inefficiencies are present in new EU country forex markets, (ix) new EU country exchange rates react differently to positive US news during the EU debt crisis compared to the rest of the period.     

Dependence structures between Chinese stock markets and the international financial market: Evidence from a wavelet-based quantile regression approach

In this study, we investigate the dependence structures between six Chinese stock markets and the international financial market including possible safe haven assets and global economic factors under different market conditions and investment horizons. The research is conducted by combining a quantile regression approach with a wavelet decomposition analysis. Although we find little or insignificant dependence under short investment horizons, we detect the strong asymmetric dependence of oil prices and the US dollar index on the six Chinese stock markets in the medium and long terms. Moreover, not only is crude oil not a safe haven, it may damage Chinese stock markets as it increases over the long term, even in bull markets. Meanwhile, appreciation of the US dollar (depreciation of RMB) damages (boosts) Chinese stock markets during bull (bear) market conditions under long investment horizons. Moreover, we find that VIX (volatility index)-related derivatives may serve as good risk management tools under any market condition, while gold is a safe haven asset only during crisis periods.     

Stocks,bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission

Understanding the complexity of the financial transmission process across various assets—domestically as well as within and across asset classes—requires the simultaneous modeling of the various transmission channels in a single, comprehensive empirical framework. The paper estimates the financial transmission between money, bond and equity markets and exchange rates within and between the USA and the euro area. We find that asset prices react strongest to other domestic asset price shocks, but that there are also substantial international spillovers, both within and across asset classes. The results underline the dominance of US markets as the main driver of global financial markets: US financial markets explain, on average, around 30% of movements in euro area financial markets, whereas euro area markets account only for about 6% of US asset price changes. Moreover, the methodology allows us to identify indirect spillovers through other asset prices, which are found to increase substantially the international transmission of shocks within asset classes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Return and volatility spillovers across the Western and MENA countries

We use weekly data on returns and range-based volatility over 2005–2017 to examine the degree of interconnectedness in financial markets of eleven MENA and four Western economies using the methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012, 2014). Our findings suggest (a) similar patterns of dynamic spillovers in both returns and in volatility. Both return and volatility spillover indices experienced significant bursts from 2008 to 2011 coinciding with the U.S. financial crisis. (b) Financial markets of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are more closely integrated with Westerns markets and may serve as primary channels for transmission of Western shocks to the region. Also, shocks to these three markets have noticeable impacts on other MENA markets. (c) Shocks to the U.S. financial markets play a critical role in return and volatility of MENA markets. (d) These findings are robust to alterations in window size and forecast horizon.     

Testing for financial spillovers in calm and turbulent periods

In this paper, we investigate financial spillovers between stock markets during calm and turbulent periods. We explicitly define financial spillovers and financial contagion in accordance with the literature and construct statistical models corresponding to these definitions in a Markov switching framework. Applying the new testing methodology based on transition matrices, we find that spillovers from the US stock market to the UK, Japanese and German markets are more frequent when the latter markets are in a crisis regime. However, we reject the hypothesis of strong financial contagion from the US to the other markets.     

Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy

We develop a technique to exploit forecast error variance decompositions to evaluate the macroeconomic connectedness embedded in any multi-country macroeconomic model with an approximate vector autoregressive (VAR) representation. We apply our technique to a large global VAR model covering 25 countries and derive vivid representations of macroeconomic connectedness. We find that the US exerts a dominant influence in the global economy and that Brazil, China, and the Eurozone are also globally significant. Recursive analysis over the period of the global financial crisis shows that shocks to global equity markets are transmitted rapidly and forcefully to real trade flows and real GDP.     

Identifying contagion

Identifying contagion effects during periods of financial crisis is known to be complicated by the changing volatility of asset returns during periods of stress. To untangle this we propose a GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) common features approach, where systemic risk emerges from a common factor source (or indeed multiple factor sources) with contagion evident through possible changes in the factor loadings relating to the common factor(s). Within a portfolio mimicking factor framework this can be identified using moment conditions. We use this framework to identify contagion in three illustrations involving both single and multiple factor specifications: to the Asian currency markets in 1997–1998, to US sectoral equity indices in 2007–2009 and to the CDS (credit default swap) market during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010–2013. The results reveal the extent to which contagion effects may be masked by not accounting for the sources of changed volatility apparent in simple measures such as correlation.     

A Respecified Fama French Three‐Factor Model for the New European Union Member States

This study uses factor models to explain stock market returns in the Eastern European (EE) countries that joined the European Union (EU) in 2004. In line with other studies, we find that the market value of equity component in the Fama French (1993) three‐factor model performs poorly when applied to our emerging markets dataset. We propose a significant amendment to the standard three‐factor model by replacing the market value of equity factor with a term that proxies for accounting manipulation. We show that our three‐factor model is able to explain returns in the EE EU nations significantly better than the Fama French (1993) three‐factor model, hereby offering an alternative model for use in the numerous markets in which previous studies have found little correlation between market value of equity and equity returns.     

Measuring the interconnectedness of financial institutions

This paper uses sophisticated empirical methodology to measure the interconnectedness of financial institutions in five developed economies – France, Germany, Japan, UK and USA – for the period January 2000 to November 2009. The study goes beyond the conventional use of first and second moments of returns and uses the timevarying equity price of risk methodology to measure the level of convergence of the financial sectors in the countries of interest. More specifically, Kalman filter convergence tests are applied to the weekly equity price of risk data to measure the interconnectedness between these countries’ and the US finance sectors. Results indicate the presence of short-term timevarying interconnectedness of the finance sectors of France, Germany and the UK with that of the US and steady-state longer term interconnectedness only between Germany and the US. Short-term and long-term steady-state interconnectedness between Japan and the US is not evident. We conclude that going forward in an environment of increased interconnectedness of international financial markets, a coordinated global financial regulatory policy with discretionary allocation of resources and execution strategy at a national level is the preferred regulatory structure to ensure sound operations of international financial systems.     

The impact of government intervention on the stabilization of domestic financial markets and on U.S. banks’ asset composition

The 2007–2009 financial crisis that evolved from various factors including the housing boom, aggressive lending activity, financial innovation, and increased access to money and capital markets prompted unprecedented U.S. government intervention in the financial sector. We examine changes in banks’ balance sheet composition associated with U.S. government intervention during the crisis. We find that the initial round of quantitative easing positively impacts bank liquidity across all bank samples. Our results show a positive impact of repurchase agreement market rates on bank liquidity for small and medium banks. We conclude that banks have become more liquid in the post-crisis period, especially the larger banks (large and money center banks). We show that real estate loan portfolio exposures have reverted to pre-crisis levels for money center banks and remained flat for all other bank samples.     

To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model

Since the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis almost half a trillion euros have been spent to financially assist EU member states in taxpayer-funded bail-outs. These crisis resolutions are often accompanied by austerity programs causing political and social friction on both domestic and international levels. The question of how to resolve failing financial institutions, and how this depends on economic preconditions, is therefore a pressing and controversial issue of vast political importance. In this work we employ an agent-based model to study the economic and financial ramifications of three highly relevant crisis resolution mechanisms. To establish the validity of the model we show that it reproduces a series of key stylized facts of the financial and real economy. The distressed institution can either be closed via a purchase & assumption transaction, it can be bailed-out using taxpayer money, or it may be bailed-in in a debt-to-equity conversion. We find that for an economy characterized by low unemployment and high productivity the optimal crisis resolution with respect to financial stability and economic productivity is to close the distressed institution. For economies in recession with high unemployment the bail-in tool provides the most efficient crisis resolution mechanism. Under no circumstances do taxpayer-funded bail-out schemes outperform bail-ins with private sector involvement.     

Volatility analysis of precious metals returns and oil returns: An ICSS approach

This study examines volatility persistence on precious metals returns taking into account oil returns and the three world major stock equity indices (Dow Jones Industrial, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225) using daily data over the sample period January 1995 to May 2008; the aim is to analyze market relationships before the global financial crisis. We first determine when large changes in the volatility of each market returns occur by identifying major global events that would increase fluctuations in these markets. The Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) algorithm was used to identify the existence of structural breaks or sudden changes in the variance of returns. In each market the standardized residuals were obtained through the GARCH(1,1) mean equation. Our main results identify a clear relationship between precious metals returns and oil returns, while the interaction between precious metals and stock returns seems to be an independent one in the case of gold with mixed results for silver and platinum. In relation to volatility persistence, the results show clear evidence of high volatility persistence between these markets, especially during times when markets were affected by excessive volatility due to economic and financial shocks.     

Value at risk and return in Chinese and the US stock markets: Double long memory and fractional cointegration

Given that the United States is an engine of global stock market while China is the largest emerging market with a cornucopia of anomalies in particular, it is vital to investigate the risk-return relationship in the two markets. This paper brings new insights not only into risk-return tradeoff, but also to the leverage effect, with the application of the fractionally co-integrated vector auto-regression (FCVAR) model capturing the fractional cointegrated relationship and long memory property. Results show that China stock markets own the property of double long memory but the US markets don’t. Most of all, in the US market, a positive risk-return tradeoff exists for the whole sample while after the crisis, even we find the negative relation, it’s not a volatility feedback effect but low risk and high returns. However, there is only a volatility feedback effect in China stock markets. Besides, there is a leverage effect in the US market, while Chinese market exhibits a reverse one, another anomaly, indicating significant difference in the two markets again.     

Stock market and macroeconomic volatility comparison: an US approach

In 2007, as the US subprime mortgage market began to fall down, which reached its peak with the catastrophic collapse of the Lehman Brothers, no one was aware of that this was going to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Evaluating the advantages and disadvantages connected with financial globalization demands a pure understanding of the influence of financial volatility. Up to the present few researches focused on analyzing macroeconomic volatility of national economies. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to compare the forecast performance of stock market and macroeconomic volatility of US economy between 2007 and 2010. Accordingly, two different types of financial time series were generated, namely weekly stock returns and quarterly return on investment. Firstly, the appropriate model was determined via time series analysis. Secondly, the relevant ARCH-type model was implemented. Finally, conditional variance forecast performance of models was presented with respect to confidence interval. Furthermore, coefficient of correlation between squared residuals and coefficient of conditional variance was given.