共查询到7条相似文献,搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
This paper re-examines the nexus between crude oil price and exchange rate by investigating their heterogeneity dependence structure within the framework of Granger causality in quantiles for a sample of developed and emerging economies (namely UK, Canada, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Norway, India, Japan, South Africa, South Korea and European Union (EU)). The results indicate no distinct causality between the crude oil price changes and the real exchange rate returns for all countries besides Russia at the median of the conditional distribution. Besides, the crude oil price changes influence the exchange rate returns in all countries, except Norway and EU, particularly around the tails of the conditional distributions of exchange rate returns. This suggests that the oil price changes influence the real exchange rate returns when the real exchange rate returns are either in extreme appreciation or depreciation. Moreover, the crude oil price movement can be explained by the exchange rate returns for most oil importers only when the crude oil market is bearish or bullish. By contrast, the real exchange rate can permanently affect the crude oil price for most oil-importing countries irrespective of the crude oil market's state. Finally, our findings provide an essential reference for managing the extreme risk dependence between the exchange rate market and the crude oil market. 相似文献
2.
随着金融市场上各种投资套利者出现套利等异常现象的累积,模型和实际的背离使得传统金融理论的理性分析范式陷入了尴尬境地,行为金融学理论悄然兴起。阐述了行为金融学的产生,研究了行为金融对投资套利者面临的成本、限制与风险的影响,最后探讨了行为金融学视角下对投资套利者的启示。 相似文献
3.
We revisit the links of real exchange rate, oil price and stock market price for China using Bayesian Multivariate Quantile_on_Quantile with GARCH approach over the period of September 14, 2001 to June 17, 2022 (a total of 4051 days). Results indicate both the links between stock price and oil price and between stock price and exchange rate varying under different combinations of quantiles. GARCH model also indicate that yesterday news and persistence measures varying with current conditional variance under different quantiles. We further estimate half-life of a shock to our whole markets and find out the half-life of a shock range from 0.415 to 4.015 days. Result not found in previous study. Our study has important policy implications for the investors, practitioners, and the government. 相似文献
4.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(4):1548-1560
This study proposes a new, novel crude oil price forecasting method based on online media text mining, with the aim of capturing the more immediate market antecedents of price fluctuations. Specifically, this is an early attempt to apply deep learning techniques to crude oil forecasting, and to extract hidden patterns within online news media using a convolutional neural network (CNN). While the news-text sentiment features and the features extracted by the CNN model reveal significant relationships with the price change, they need to be grouped according to their topics in the price forecasting in order to obtain a greater forecasting accuracy. This study further proposes a feature grouping method based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model for distinguishing effects from various online news topics. Optimized input variable combination is constructed using lag order selection and feature selection methods. Our empirical results suggest that the proposed topic-sentiment synthesis forecasting models perform better than the older benchmark models. In addition, text features and financial features are shown to be complementary in producing more accurate crude oil price forecasts. 相似文献
5.
The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) insurance industry, including conventional insurance and Takaful, has witnessed remarkable growth during the last decade. However, the economies of this region rely on oil as the primary stream of revenue and lack development in financial markets. This could affect the insurance industry. For this reason, this paper examines the impact of oil prices and the financial market on the cost efficiency of the insurance and Takaful sectors in GCC countries using a stochastic frontier cost function with data from 2009–2016. The results show that the relationship between oil prices and efficiency changes from positive to negative when the prices increase, whereas the relationship between the financial market and efficiency is negative. No clear evidence of the impact of oil prices on efficiency arises from the differences between conventional insurance and Takaful. However, there are differences regarding the financial market, with a negative impact on conventional insurance and a positive one on the Takaful business. The results of this study have implications for regulators and management. The Takaful industry is rapidly growing compared to conventional insurance in the GCC and, therefore, the financial market may have added benefits for the GCC region. However, caution is required in relation to the impact of the financial market on conventional insurance. Furthermore, management may require the development of strategies to deal with the nature of GCC economies to avoid shocks to oil prices. 相似文献
6.
Maria Rosa De Giacomo Francesco Testa Fabio Iraldo Marco Formentini 《Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management》2019,25(3):100500
Life Cycle Costing (LCC) is rarely used in public procurement and public institutions have yet to fully understand its potential value for sustainable procurement. The new European Directive on Public Procurement is, however, designed to position LCC as central to sustainable sourcing. Although previous studies have identified positive correlations between Green Public Procurement Policies (GPP) and LCC, it is still unclear how public institutions can further adopt LCC practices by leveraging their experience of green sourcing. In this study an organizational learning theoretical perspective is taken to investigate the circumstances under which public administrations’ experience of GPP – considered as a way of integrating the dimension of environmental sustainability into the sourcing process – stimulates their LCC learning and capabilities – considered as a way to include the sustainability economic dimension. The goal is to understand if the adoption of GPP can stimulate the internalisation of LCC in public tenders. A multinomial logistic regression was conducted using a sample of 120 public administrations located in different countries. The results show that experience of GPP stimulates the internalisation of LCC at a public level, but only under specific conditions. The study contributes to the Sustainable Supply Management literature, being one of the first studies in the field adopting an organizational learning theoretical lens to review the role of experience as significant opportunity to develop capabilities. It also contributes to the organizational learning theory, by confirming that experience can aid learning but only in specific environmental contexts. 相似文献
7.
价值工程自引入我国20多年来,获得了快速的发展和广泛的应用,取得了很大的成绩。本文在研究价值工程基本原理的基础上,试着将其应用到高校教师选用当中来,并运用层次分析法确定功能权重,从而为高校更好地选用教师提供了更加科学的,量化的分析方法。具有很强的实践意义。 相似文献