The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress

External financial frictions might increase the severity of economic uncertainty shocks. We analyze the impact of aggregate uncertainty and financial condition shocks using a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model with stochastic volatility during distinct US financial stress regimes. We further examine the international spillover of the US financial shock. Our results show that the peak contraction in euro area industrial production due to uncertainty shocks during a financial crisis is nearly-four times larger than the peak contraction during normal times. The US financial shocks have an influential asymmetric spillover effect on the euro area. Furthermore, the estimates reveal that the European Central Bank (ECB) is more cautious in implementing a monetary policy against uncertainty shocks while adopting hawkish monetary policies against financial shocks. In contrast, the Fed adopts a more hawkish monetary policy during heightened uncertainty, whereas it acts more steadily when financial stress rises in the economy.     

CEO强制变更与公司业绩的相关性研究 ——基于国有上市公司数据

以2000年至2012年沪深两地A股国有上市公司为研究样本,探讨在国有上市公司存在多重目标的情况下公司业绩与CEO强制变更之间的相关性,实证结果表明:当国有上市公司处于亏损状态时,公司业绩和CEO强制变更之间显著负相关;对于经营状况良好的国有上市公司来说,公司业绩和CEO强制变更之间不存在显著的相关关系。进一步研究发现,CEO强制变更后,亏损公司的业绩会得到显著性改善,而盈利公司的业绩则没有显著变化。     

Modelling stock price behaviour by financial ratios

The main purpose of this study is to find out which economic dimensions of the firm are reflected in stock price behaviour in the Finnish stock market. Based on the previous theoretical articles, four economic dimensions are chosen: profitability, financial leverage, operating leverage and corporate growth. Twelve (12) financial ratios are then selected to represent these four dimensions. All the Finnish firms common series listed for the whole 1974–1986 period are included in the empirical analysis.All of the four expected dimensions above are found in the empirical classification pattern of ratios. On the cross-sectional level, profitability and financial leverate are reported as determinants of stock price behaviour. Corporation growth is merely connected to the risk of the common stock. Somewhat weaker results concerning the association between stock price behaviour and operating leverage factor may be due to difficulties measuring operating leverage on an empirical level.When studying the intra-year explanatory power of financial ratios, it is reported that the explanatory power of financial ratios tends to increase when the reporting day approaches, and starts to decrease after that releasing day of financial statement numbers. Empirical evidence strongly indicates that financial ratios represent pricing relationships in a substantive manner.The financial support by the Academy of Finland as well as the helpful comments and suggestions of an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Radical innovations in new product development and their financial performance implications: An event study of US manufacturing firms

At the dawn of the 21st century, global competition continues to increase at an accelerating rate and radical innovation is recognized as a potent weapon for firms to achieve sustainable competitive advantages. Academics, practitioners and consultants share the view that radical innovation is important to the long-term financial success of firms. Nevertheless, empirical studies on the relationship between radical innovation and firm performance have been dominated by survey research, which provided little concrete evidence on the financial impact of radical innovation. In this study we traced the financial performance of publicly traded manufacturing firms in the United States that introduced radical innovations over the period 1986-2000 and examined whether radical innovation could lead to superior financial performance in these firms. We employed the event-study method, matching each sample firm with a control group of firms in the same industry with similar pre-event performance and firm size. Our results show that while radical innovation helps firms maintain sales growth and return on sales (ROS), firm profitability in terms of return on assets (ROA) is not significantly improved. In fact, manufacturers suffer from a decline in profitability upon the introduction of radical innovations in new product development.     

Firm Performance,Governance Structure,and Top Management Turnover in a Transitional Economy*

abstract Recent research has argued that political and regulatory environments have a significant impact on corporate governance systems. In particular, countries with poor investor protection laws and weak law enforcement have low levels of corporate governance that manifests itself in substandard financial performance, management entrenchment, and the expropriation of minority shareholders. One implication of this research is that China will have poor corporate governance and entrenched managers as its legal system is relatively underdeveloped and inefficient. However, using data on top management turnover in China's listed firms, our results refute the prediction of entrenched management. We find evidence of very high turnover of company chairmen and there are many cases that we interpret to be forced departures. Our results show that chairman turnover is related to a firm's profitability but not to its stock returns. Turnover‐performance sensitivity is higher if legal entities are major shareholders but the proportion of non‐executive directors perversely affects it. We find no evidence that profitability improves after a change in chairman and this suggests that a firm's governance structure is ineffective as it is unable to recruit suitable replacements that can turn around its financial performance.     

International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries

We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have a greater effect than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.     

On the Real Effect of Financial Pressure: Evidence From Firm‐Level Employment During the Euro‐Area Crisis

Using a large panel of mainly unquoted euro‐area firms over the period 2003–2011, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the euro area‐crisis (2010–2011), especially for firms in the periphery compared to their counterparts in non‐periphery European economies. When we introduce firm‐level heterogeneity, we show that financial pressure appears to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for bank‐dependent, small and privately held firms operating in periphery economies during the crisis.     

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLE

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission – as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE – it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.     

净资产收益率指标反映上市公司盈利能力问题探讨

考察一个公司的盈利能力,公认的财务指标是ROE(净资产收益率)。ROE反映的是实际投资收益水平,其充分考虑了毛利水平、资产周转率、财务杠杆等因素,是衡量上市公司盈利能力的核心指标。因此深刻理解其内涵,仔细了解其功用,有助于证券市场投资者正确评估股票内在价值,做出正确的投资决策。     

The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries

We employ a multi-country non-stationary dynamic factor model to assess spillover effects and transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks on a variety of macroeconomic variables in individual non-US G7 countries. We find that trade, financial and confidence channels all play a significant role in the international transmission of US shocks. However, the results point to substantial heterogeneities of shock transmission across the individual G7 economies. In particular, we find negative transmission effects for Italy and Japan as the only two G7 countries not well integrated into global value chains. Moreover, the exchange rate responses of Germany, France and Italy turn out to be far less pronounced in comparison to the other G7 economies which we relate to their membership of the euro area and their coordinated monetary policies prior to the establishment of the euro. Whereas we document a close comovement of stock market dynamics across the G7 countries, we find credit and real estate markets to be less synchronized. We do not find the effects and transmission channels to be fundamentally affected by the post-2008 economic environment.     

The interplay of corporate entrepreneurship,environmental orientation,and performance in clean‐tech firms—A double‐edged sword

Clean‐tech innovations are an important driver in solving global issues such as climate change and for the sustainable development of economies around the world. Whereas a large part of the literature focuses on clean‐tech ventures, less is known on corporate entrepreneurship, that is, entrepreneurial behavior in established firms and its relation to sustainability. This paper extends the sustainable entrepreneurship debate to corporate entrepreneurship, which represents a fruitful avenue to further developing clean technologies. We focus particularly on clean‐tech firms' organizational preparedness for corporate entrepreneurship (OPCE), that is, how well a firm's structures and processes are set for entrepreneurial activities. On the basis of contingency theory, this study investigates how the level of OPCE influences the environmental and financial performance of clean‐tech firms and whether their environmental orientation affects these relationships. Building on data from 103 firms, we find support for a positive effect of OPCE on both environmental and financial performance. Both effects are stronger the higher the external environmental orientation. In contrast, the leverage of internal environmental orientation is not equally positive. Our study reveals that the effect of OPCE on financial performance diminishes for firms that are more strongly driven by an internal than an external environmental orientation.     

Regulatory risk, market uncertainties, and firm financing choices: Evidence from U.S. Electricity Market Restructuring

Based on the universe of rate-regulated electric utilities in the U.S., we examine why firms alter their financing decisions when transitioning from a regulated to a competitive market regime. We find that the significant increase in regulatory risk after the passage of the Energy Policy Act, state-level restructuring legislations, and divestiture policies have reduced leverage by 15 percent. Policies that encouraged competition, and hence increased market uncertainty, lowered leverage by another 13 percent on average. The ability to exercise market power allowed some firms to counter this competitive threat. In aggregate, regulatory risk and market uncertainty variables reduce leverage between 24.6 and 26.7 percent. We also confirm findings in the literature that firms with higher profitability and higher asset growth have lower leverage, and those with more tangible assets are more levered. Firms with greater access to internal capital markets and those with a footloose customer segment use less debt, while those actively involved in trading power in the wholesale market use more debt.     

Environmental Compliance and Firm Performance: Evidence from China*

This article evaluates the impact of environmental compliance on firms’ innovation and financial performance using a panel dataset of Chinese firms for the period of 2000–5. Our results show certification of the ISO14000 has a significantly positive impact on firms’ profitability. This finding is robust when we take into account possible endogeneity of certification, effects of export and types of customers, and possible precertification time trends. In addition, we find that certified firms have larger per‐worker sales volumes and market shares in the country, which suggests an alternative mechanism for the Porter hypothesis in the context of a developing economy.     

Firm leverage decisions: Does industry matter?

We use a standard capital structure mode l to investigate the firm leverage decisions of 1620 companies listed in the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) across a span of 13 years (2000–2012), dividing the sample into mining and other industries (non-mining). We also test for significant differences in leverage decisions between these two groups by applying a dummy variable approach. Our findings show that fundamental differences exist between mining and non-mining companies when making leverage decisions. We find evidence that mining firms are more sensitive to profitability and asset tangibility where neither profitability nor asset tangibility has significant association for non-mining firms. Overall results suggest that industry-type does matter for firms making leverage decisions.     

Relationship between Corporate Climate Change Disclosures and Firm Factors

As carbon regulation evolves and becomes specialized in addressing carbon reduction issues, stakeholders will demand that firms provide increased information regarding corporate climate change practices. This paper contributes to the international research that examines the relationship between environmental information disclosures and additional firm factors. To do so, we have conducted an empirical analysis of the relationship between the corporate climate change disclosure practices of firms listed in the Athens Stock Exchange and firm factors, such as size, profitability, leverage and activity sector. Our results indicate there is a significant positive relationship between size and increased corporate disclosures regarding climate change practices. However, no significant relationship is detected between profitability or leverage and corporate climate change disclosures. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Macroeconomic and financial stability in a monetary union: The case of Lithuania

In this paper, we study the implications of macroprudential policies in a monetary union for macroeconomic and financial stability. For this purpose, we develop a two-country monetary union new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints, to be calibrated for Lithuania and the rest of the euro area. We consider two different scenarios for macroprudential policies: one in which the ECB extends its goals to also include financial stability and a second one in which a national macroprudential authority uses the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) as an instrument. The results show that both rules are effective in making the financial system more stable in both countries, and especially in Lithuania. This is because the financial sector in this country is more sensitive to shocks. We find that an extended Taylor rule is indeed effective in reducing the volatility of credit, but comes with a cost in terms of higher inflation volatility. The simple LTV rule, on the other hand, does not compromise the objective of monetary policy. This reinforces the “Tinbergen principle”, which argues that there should be two different instruments when there are two different policy goals.     

Optimal dividend policy with random interest rates

Several recent papers have studied the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the financial policies of firms. However, they only consider the case where these macroeconomic shocks affect the profitability of firms but not the financial markets conditions. We study the polar case where the profitability of firms is stationary, but interest rates and issuance costs are governed by an exogenous Markov chain. We characterize the optimal dividend policy and show that these two macroeconomic factors have opposing effects: all things being equal, firms distribute more dividends when interest rates are high and less when issuing costs are high.     

Monetary policy announcements and stock reactions: An international comparison

This article investigates the impact of domestic monetary policy rate announcements on the stock markets of New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom and the euro area, using event-study methods to identify stock price reactions to the unanticipated/surprise component of announcements. As Australia and New Zealand did not reach the zero bound we investigate whether there is an impact from the global financial crisis on stock market reactions that can be distinguished from the asymmetric reactions to surprises that characterise the business cycle. We find that the euro area and the UK both show a financial crisis effect but behaviour in New Zealand and Australia does not change. We conduct robustness checks and explore confounding factors, especially the impact of ‘guidance’ from central banks that prepares markets for policy rate changes.     

The evidence from Canadian firms on multinational diversification and performance

The purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of multinational diversification on corporate financial performance. This issue is examined for Canadian firms by using four years of individual as well as pooled time-series-cross-sectional data for the years 1992–1994 and 1997. Using three distinct measures of financial performance and two measures of multinational diversification and controlling for size, leverage, growth, and efficiency, we replicate the procedures in prior studies to show that, in general, lower performance is associated with multinationality. However, when a nonlinear specification is used, a hurdle level for foreign assets deployment is identified. Prior to this threshold level, financial performance is inversely related to degree of multinational diversification, but beyond this level, the relationship is positive. We provide an explanation for this U-shaped relationship.