融资约束与中国制造业企业出口产品质量升级

高质量出口是新时期中国外贸发展的本质要求和主攻方向,融资约束是困扰中国出口高质量发展的重大现实问题。文章基于中国大样本制造业企业面板数据,实证检验融资约束对企业出口产品质量的影响效应。实证结果显示:第一,融资约束显著降低企业出口产品质量,利用工具变量法缓解可能存在的内生性问题及进行其他稳健性检验之后,该结论依然成立;第二,中间品进口是融资约束影响企业出口产品质量的重要机制,且该机制在高技术行业表现得更为明显;第三,银行信贷和商业信用对企业出口产品质量的影响在总体上不显著,但在大型企业中显著为正。文章从微观层面诠释了金融对贸易高质量发展的作用,为缓解出口产品质量升级过程中的融资约束提供了经验证据和解决思路。     

外商直接投资对我国服务贸易的影响研究——基于1982～2010年时间序列数据的实证分析

本文基于向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用我国1982～2010年度的经济数据,对我国外商直接投资对我国服务贸易的影响进行实证分析,结果表明:外商直接投资与我国服务贸易进口、出口之间存在协整关系;服务贸易进口与FDI存在双向的因果关系。无论从长期或短期来看,外商直接投资对我国服务贸易进出口的效应均为正。基于此,我国应制定相关吸引外资的政策,重视服务贸易人才培养,并促进我国货物贸易出口与服务贸易出口协调发展,进而发挥货物贸易出口对服务贸易出口的带动作用。     

城市基础设施建设投融资模式创新的基本思路

在国家宏观经济调控的条件下,城市基础设施投融资模式创新显得尤为重要。本文从政府融资平台的视角,对后金融危机时代城市基础设施投融资模式进行探讨,认为通过基础设施融资租赁、产权权益证券化、股权转让来盘活存量基础设施的融资模式;通过土地融资、发行中票和短期融资券、PPP或FPI等运营方式,以及发行产业基金、吸引保险资金等融资模式相结合的策略,对于加快城市基础设施建设具有较强的推动作用。     

政府挤占了企业人力资源吗——来自中国企业出口产品质量的证据

文章在异质性模型基础上，引入出口产品质量，通过构建理论模型考察了政府与企业间人才配置对企业出口质量决策的影响。人力资本在政府与企业间的配置是决定企业出口质量的重要因素，政府对人才的过度占用将导致其对高技能劳动的"竞争效应"高于生产率"溢出效应"，从而抑制企业的出口质量的提升。基于此，文章采用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据、中国工业企业数据、中国海关数据及其匹配数据，通过构建计量模型检验了政府与企业间人才配置对中国企业出口产品质量的影响。研究发现：虽然公务员人力资本水平的提高有助于政府公共物品提供，但是却挤占了企业生产中对高技能劳动力的使用，政府、企业间人才配置所带来的高技能劳动力"竞争效应"显著高于公共物品"溢出效应"，从而通过提升高技能劳动力的工资水平，抑制了中国企业出口产品质量的提升，这一结论在考虑了变量的度量、模型形式设定与内生性问题之后仍然稳健；进一步检验发现政府部门对企业人力资本的"竞争效应"在不同行业间存在显著地差异性，对与政府人力资本结构更为相似行业的出口质量压抑效应更大；在对出口产品质量进行动态分解后，文章研究发现政府与企业间人才配置对出口质量的负面影响主要源自于在位企业的企业内与企业间效应，而非进入与退出效应。     

Inputs,networks and quality-upgrading: Evidence from China in India

This paper exploits China's accession to the WTO to investigate the impact of a supply shock on quality across the Indian production network. After controlling for increased import competition, including in downstream and third-country markets, and for new export opportunities, we find that a fall in input tariffs raises revenue, quality and prices, whilst lowering quality-adjusted prices and the probability of product exit – consistent with a simple model of multi-product manufacturers gaining access to higher-quality components. Upgrading persists for at least ten years; at the peak in 2010, products with a 10% higher pre-accession input tariff, and hence a larger post-accession fall in tariffs, have 5.3% higher quality. This in turn raises quality further down the supply chain, with input-output linkages amplifying the one-step effect by up to 75%. These results highlight a potential beneficial impact of the “China shock” in developing countries, namely supply-driven quality upgrading.     

Indonesian Foreign Debt: Headed for A Crisis or Financing Sustainable Growth?

This paper examines the build-up in Indonesia's foreign debt between 1981 and 1993, and explores the potential for a debt crisis during Repelita VI. It concludes that Indonesia is not headed toward a crisis in the immediate future- Borrowed funds have generally financed productive investments, contributing to rapid growth in GDP and exports since the late 1980s. If recent trends continue, debt should ease gradually; if not, the economy could withstand a substantial balance of payments shock, at least for a while. A debt servicing problem, although unlikely, is conceivable by the end of the decade. Short-term debt is growing rapidly, non-oil export growth has slowed, and debt service remains high. Appropriate government actions to reduce the potential for a crisis include further deregulation to support growth in non-oil exports, discouraging implicit government guarantees for private sector projects, and reducing government exposure to yen-denominated debt.     

地区营商环境对企业出口贸易的影响

文章利用世界银行于2013年公布的中国制造业企业问卷调查数据,实证检验地区营商环境对企业出口贸易的影响。研究发现,营商环境体系中的关贸监管效率、行政审批效率、基础设施条件、融资便利程度、高素质劳动力等因素显著阻碍了企业出口强度的提升,这几个方面应当成为政府部门改善营商环境的政策着力点。不同类型企业对营商环境的诉求存在显著差异,大型企业的出口贸易对营商环境各项指标的质量都更加敏感,高生产率企业的出口贸易则更易受到低质量税制环境和高素质劳动力短缺的制约。东部发达地区的企业出口贸易受要素市场条件的约束相对更多,而中西部欠发达地区的企业出口贸易受贸易便利条件的约束更为突出。     

Trade and Tax Reforms in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy

We examine the effects of both tariff‐only and coordinated trade‐tax reforms on market access, government revenue, and welfare for a small monetary economy, under the assumption that a certain fraction of purchases of each good must be financed with cash held in advance. We show that if the cash requirement ratio in the exportable sector is greater than that in the importable, then, contrary to previous results, (i) a uniform radial reduction of tariffs has ambiguous effects on both welfare and market access, (ii) tariff and consumption tax reforms that leave consumer prices unchanged may be more efficient in improving market access and welfare than a reform that involves only tariffs, and (iii) export and production tax reforms that keep producer prices unchanged may be welfare deteriorating.     

PFI和RCP融资模式的比较研究

把当今比较流行的PFI融资模式和正处于理论研究阶段RCP模式在历史背景、特点、优缺点方面进行了详细的比较分析,以期给政府在非经营性或准经营性基础设施项目融资模式选择时提供一些参考意见。     

Trade liberalization induced profitability enhancement? The impact of intermediate input imports on firm profitability

Using the detailed data on production and transaction of Chinese manufacturing firms, we investigate how the input tariff liberalization affects firm profitability and explore the underlying channels of this effect. We find that input tariff reduction significantly increases firms’ profitability. Our finding is robust to a variety of specifications. We further find that the quality upgrading of imported intermediate inputs and the reduction of inventory costs are the main reasons for the profit-enhancing effect of input tariff reduction. Our study has important policy implications for the economic growth in the long run and the economic recovery during the epidemic of COVID-19.     

地方政府融资平台发展综述

地方政府融资平台是在我国投融资体制改革的过程中产生的,目前已成为地方政府运用市场手段建设公共基础设施的重要载体。地方政府融资平台的发展历程包含4个阶段,包括初创萌芽阶段、起步探索阶段、稳步发展阶段、扩张繁荣和规范发展阶段,各阶段展示出了不同的特点和发展规律。     

The german stability program: A quantitative assessment

In the Maastricht Treaty and the European Stability and Growth Pact, it was recognized that high public deficits and debt levels would endanger the success of the European Economic and Monetary Union. In its stability program, updated in December 2001, the German government published its objective to achieve a balanced general budget in the year 2004. The budget of the central government should be balanced in 2006 [Bundesfinanzministerium, 2001]. This paper analyzes the effects of strict budget consolidation policies on important macroeconomic variables like inflation, unemployment and GDP growth. It is shown that a balanced budget as early as 2004 would necessitate high public consumption and investment. These should be financed by higher indirect taxes, whereas social security contribution rates should be reduced to bring unemployment down.     

地方政府融资平台贷款的形成原因分析

地方政府融资平台是我国特定历史条件下的产物,从1984年十二届三中全会通过《改革经济体制的决定》,拓宽重大基础设施建设项目的投融资渠道成为迫切需要,始于1994年的分税制改革将地方税与国家税分开收支管理,进一步加大了地方政府在"事权"与"财权"上的不匹配,为应对美国"次贷危机"影响,地方政府融资平台开始了大规模、实质性的探索实践。从地方政府融资平台的融资结构看,银行借款无疑是最重要的来源,由于地方政府融资平台债务余额不断膨胀且运作机制不够规范,地方财政的偿债风险日益加大。因此,梳理出地方政府融资平台贷款的成因对构建健康的基础设施领域投融资渠道、规范地方政府的负债行为具有重要的现实意义。本文主要是通过对地方政府融资平台的产生背景和发展脉络入手,找出地方政府融资平台贷款形成的原因。     

融资约束与多产品出口企业的二元边际:基于中国企业层面的分析

本文通过匹配2002-2006年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库,将各个出口企业贸易额分解为出口广度和深度两部分,研究多产品出口企业融资约束与出口行为之间的关系,研究发现：（1）融资约束阻碍了我国出口企业出口总额、出口深度以及平均出口广度的增长;（2）融资约束对民营企业的出口行为影响最大,之后是外资企业和国有企业;（3）与中东部地区相比,西部地区企业的出口行为对融资约束的敏感程度大得多。     

政府卫生支出水准与筹资能力的国际比较

在进行政府卫生支出的国际比较时,需注意国内外测算口径存在的差异。OECD 口径下政府卫生支出水平的国际比较表明,中国政府卫生支出总体水平较低,医疗卫生的公共筹资力度不足,对此,必须加大政府卫生投入,建立和完善健康保障制度,强化政府在卫生筹资中的主导作用。     

调控背景下的地方融资平台发展战略转型研究

2010年6月,国务院下发了《关于加强地方政府融资平台管理有关问题的通知》后地方融资平台面临着城市基础设施建设融资困难且原有融资渠道受限的两难局面。本文基于此背景,对地方融资平台发展战略转型,探索城市经营模式提出相关建议。     

我国城市基础设施建设投融资绩效评价——基于三阶段DEA模型的实证分析

自改革开放以来,我国城市化步伐明显加快,现已进入城市化高速发展的起步阶段。为了进一步推进城市化进程,更多的资金投入到城市基础设施建设中,这就涉及投融资管理与绩效评价问题。文章分别从资金来源结构和资金投向结构两个角度出发,运用三阶段DEA方法对我国2012年城市基础设施建设投融资绩效进行评价,同时对影响投融资效率的因素进行分析。研究结果表明:中西部地区城市基础设施投融资效率主要受规模效率制约,东部地区主要受纯技术效率制约;城市基础设施建设投融资效率受环境因素影响较大;人力资本、经济基础和科技发展水平较高的省份在城市基础设施建设投融资效率方面占有优势。     

要素市场扭曲、交通基础设施改善与企业出口

文章基于Melitz（2003）企业异质性理论构建厂商出口决策模型，利用2005-2007年工业企业数据库，从要素市场扭曲角度分析交通设施影响企业出口的微观机制。研究发现，交通基础设施对企业出口倾向和出口数量具有显著的促进作用，在进入国内市场固定成本大于进入国际市场成本时，地区要素市场扭曲程度越高，交通基础设施的促进作用越明显。聚焦不同所有制的企业可以进一步发现，要素市场扭曲对非国有部门企业的抑制作用更突出，改善交通基础设施通过优化资源配置更有助于带动非国有企业的出口。研究结果还显示，交通基础设施和要素市场扭曲对企业出口的影响存在地区差异，交通基础设施和要素市场扭曲对中西部地区企业出口数量的促进作用比东部地区企业更大。这一结论不受内生性的影响。     

Exchange Rate Pass‐through to China's Export Price: A Product‐level Investigation

Exchange rate movement usually results in changes in the production costs of exporting firms, and, therefore, the prices and the quantity of traded products. The present paper constructs a theoretical model to demonstrate that export products with higher productivity, or with larger market share, or of higher quality will experience a less complete pass‐through. Using the six‐digit harmonized system export data from the CEPII database over the period of 2000 to 2013, the present paper examines how product heterogeneity affects the exchange rate pass‐through of Chinese exports. The empirical results show that the most competitive Chinese export products, or those least affected by exchange rate risks, are those of higher quality, with higher technological complexity and at the high end of the international value chain. Therefore, Chinese exporting firms should pay more attention to improving export quality and upgrading technology to better cope with exchange rate risks and to enjoy more bargaining power in the international market.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S EXPORT PERFORMANCE: DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT SUPPLY

This paper presents both a comparative analysis of South Africa's export structure and performance and an econometric investigation of the determinants of export volumes. The paper finds that the improved growth and diversification of South African manufactured exports during the 1990s lag those of East Asia and a few other resource‐based economies. This performance in part reflects relatively low world growth in resource‐based products, but factors that affect the profitability of export supply, such as the real effective exchange rate, infrastructure costs, tariff rates and skilled labour, are also shown to be important. Export demand and the ability to compete in the export market on the basis of price are not found to be a major constraint to export growth.