Welfare loss of China's air pollution: How to make personal vehicle transportation policy

Given China's notorious air pollution, particularly fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution, a detailed understanding of socio-economic costs of air pollution and potential impacts of its abatement policies is crucial for policy-making if sustainable development is to be realized. To provide the first study of its kind for China, this paper builds an integrated assessment framework based on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find China's air pollution (PM_2.5, ozone, and coarse particles ranging from 2.5 to 10 μm) to be a staggering threat to human health, economy and residential welfare. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence for much more importance of the PM_2.5 issue. In addition, we investigate the impacts of alternative personal vehicle transportation policies. In terms of gross benefits, the results indicate that the total substitution of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for the existing personal internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) would be more beneficial to national air quality and human health than the combination of stringent fuel economy and emission standards for ICEVs, even in the Chinese case of coal-heavy electric grids.     

Air pollution and brain drain: Evidence from college graduates in China

This paper provides one of the few evidence about migration responses among talents to air pollution. Specifically, we investigate the impact of PM_2.5 concentration on job location decisions of Chinese college graduates at the beginning of their professional careers. The results indicate that a 10-unit increase in PM_2.5 concentration raises college graduates' probability to leave their current city by 10% point. We also find larger impacts on graduates from elite colleges and less polluted hometowns. Our empirical results are consistent with a simple model in which the location choice of college graduates depends on their wage payment and air pollution. Our findings supplement existent literature in documenting important ways in which air pollution may associate with the loss of highly-educated talents.     

The impact of lockdown on air pollution: Evidence from an instrument

This paper studies the impact of lockdown measures in response to the outbreak of COVID-19 on a prefecture's air pollution in China. To avoid potential endogenous problems, we exploit the bilateral population flow from the Baidu Migration Index to predict prefectures' probability to undertake lockdown measures. Our results using difference-in-differences with the instrumental variable show that a prefecture's lockdown measures significantly reduce its air quality index (AQI) by around 35%, and yet the result for difference-in-differences with OLS is only around 11%. We also find that a prefecture under lockdown reduces its PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 by around 25% and 35% respectively, and the results of diff-in-diff with OLS are only around 11% and 12%. The sharp difference between these two approaches seems to imply that there is a strong heterogeneity in lockdown stringency across prefectures.     

Does Air Pollution Affect Consumption Behavior? Evidence from Korean Retail Sales*

Using monthly regional panel data on air quality and large retail store sales in Korea, we empirically examine the effect of air pollution on retail sales. We account for regional heterogeneity in air pollution and control for various macroeconomic and climatic factors that can affect retail sales. We also use the air quality indicator in the west coastal islands (affected by trans‐border pollution but uncorrelated with the economic activity in the mainland) as an instrumental variable. The estimation results show that, in general, 1 additional day of PM₁₀ level higher than 80 μg/m³ reduces monthly retail sales by approximately 0.1 percent. Nonetheless, an adaptive pattern emerges over time, particularly when the level of air pollution in the previous month was severe.     

The path towards sustainable finance: Venture capital and air pollution in China

Financing sustainable growth has attracted global attention and discussion in recent years. This study investigates the effect of venture capital, as a potential source of sustainable finance, on air pollution in China from 2003 to 2016. Using the unique Government Guidance Fund as instrumental variable, we find that venture capital activities have significantly reduced local air pollution in cities of China. To be specific, a one standard deviation increase in the VC amount leads to 4% decrease in PM_2.5 concentration and 6% reduction in industrial SO₂ emission. The effects are insensitive to a wide range of robustness tests. Cities characterized by more rigorous environmental supervision, superior business environments, and stronger innovation incentives benefit more from venture capital activities. We further show that venture capital helps improve local air quality by boosting general and green innovation, increasing the investment of new green enterprises, as well as crowding out the investment of polluting industries.     

Urban pollution and road infrastructure: A case study of China

Urban road infrastructure is crucial in affecting air pollution. Yet, little is known about the roles played by road width vs road length. This paper attempts to fill this gap by estimating the effects of road infrastructure on PM₁₀ using city-level data from China. Our robust modeling results show that the road density index, defined as the ratio of road surface area to city territory size, is negatively correlated with PM₁₀. More importantly, when the road width and length components of the road density variable are separately included in the regression models, the width is found to be significantly and negatively correlated with PM₁₀, whereas the correlation with the length variable is insignificant. This is expected as increases in road width can help mitigate congestion, improve fuel efficiency, and thus reduce emissions. On the contrary, extending roads to new or unconnected areas is likely to bring more vehicles onto the roads and extend average driving time. Our findings appeal for careful consideration of the trade-off between road width (lane numbers) and road length when planning and constructing urban road infrastructure.     

Earning reduction caused by air pollution: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the effect of air pollution on employees' earnings in China. Using both instrument variable (IV) and regression discontinuity design (RDD), we find that air pollution reduces employees' yearly earnings. A one μg/m³ increase in yearly PM_2.5 decreases employees' yearly earnings by 175.4 CNY. The total loss in earnings for all employees working for our sample firms amounts to about 268.59 million CNY. Our estimations are not sensitive to a battery of different robustness checks. We also find that the effect of air pollution differs based on several factors including labor intensity, ownership types and firm size. Our mechanism tests indicate that air pollution can reduce employees' earnings by lowering their unit wage and reducing their working time. The resulting increase in firms' labor costs further undermines their operating status. Notably, air pollution exerts a non-linear negative effect on employees' earnings. Overall, our findings suggest that air pollution can significantly lower employees' benefits by reducing their earnings. Our paper also provides powerful support for formulating environmental regulations in the future.     

Trade openness and air pollution: City-level empirical evidence from China

We seek to contribute to the debate over trade openness and the environment by taking specific account of the endogeneity of trade openness. We use exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables as well as distance to Huai River for identification which is based on China's heating policy. Using air quality measure from NASA, we find that trade increases three measures of air pollution: SO₂, NO₂, and Aerosol concentration.     

The health costs of the industrial leap forward in China: Evidence from the sulfur dioxide emissions of coal-fired power stations

In this study, we attempt to empirically test the effects of air pollution on public health in China. Using three-stage least squares (3SLS) to solve the potential endogeneity problem in sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions, we find that air pollution has significant negative effects on public health. Specifically, a 1% increase in SO₂ emissions is found to lead to 0.067 and 0.004 more deaths per 100,000 population due to respiratory diseases and lung cancer, respectively. In terms of absolute magnitude, every one million ton increase in SO₂ emissions results in 0.735 and 0.052 extra deaths due to respiratory diseases and lung cancer per 100,000 population, respectively. Moreover, SO₂ emissions result in 230,000 extra deaths every year and the related economic costs over the study period amount to RMB 8.179 billion.     

Has urbanization accelerated PM2.5 emissions? An empirical analysis with cross-country data

As a prominent indicator of economic development, urbanization can exert a significant impact on the PM_2.5 level. Using panel data from 126 countries (areas) over the period 1990–2016, this study investigates the relationship between urbanization level and PM_2.5 density. A modified stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model is applied as the empirical strategy. Results show that the relationship between urbanization and PM_2.5 density has an inverted U shape. The effects of urban agglomeration and technological progress reduce the density of PM_2.5 in the late stage of urbanization. This study can help policymakers design appropriate measures relevant to PM_2.5 attenuation in the context of breakneck urbanization.     

Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission

To understand the potential impacts of China's accession to WTO on her new desulphur policy (gradual reduction of 10% of annual SO₂ emission by 2005 with respect to that of 2000), we construct a CGE model in which SO₂ emission is directly linked to energy input consumption in production. The model equally considers the substitution possibility between energies of different SO₂ effluent ratios by including energy as labor and capital in the constant elasticity of transformation production function. The positive externality of trade in China's economy is also included. This model is then calibrated into a 55-sector Chinese SAM for the year 1997. Four policy simulations (Business as Usual, Openness policy only, desulfur policy only, and the combination of openness and desulfur policy) are made for the period from 1997 to 2005. The results show that the environmental impact of trade, though proven to be “negative”, stays rather modest. This is owing to the industrial composition transformation that deviates the specialization of the Chinese economy towards labor-intensive sectors under the new trade liberalization process. We do not find evidence for the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Seemingly ambitious, the new desulphur policy will only bring small economic growth loss. The pollution reduction objective will be realized mainly by substitution between polluting and less or non-polluting energies. The combination of trade liberalization and pollution control policy seems to give China more flexibility in adapting her economy to the new desulphur objective. Considering these different aspects together, the total economic loss due to the new desulphur policy will be limited to only − 0.26% under the presence of trade liberalization.     

Pollution abatement efforts: a regional analysis of the Chinese industrial sector

Although China has had rapid economic growth, it has borne a more significant economic burden or loss because of environmental pollution. However, the country has addressed this problem with various pollution abatement efforts. Some prior studies analysed the relationship between such efforts and pollution emissions, but did not show how these efforts affect pollution reduction. This study investigates the effects of pollution abatement efforts on industrial SO_X, NO_X and CO₂ emissions in the context of pollution reduction in China by panel data for 29 provinces from 1995 to 2010. The empirical results are as follows. First, emissions have increased rapidly in the 2000s. Second, rapid income growth has led to a greater increase in emissions. Third, pollution abatement would assist improvements in environmental quality. Further, this study reveals that abatement efforts affect emissions through the adoption of pollution removal measures.     

城市经济的空间结构：居住、就业及衍生问题

居住与就业的空间关系是企业和家庭空间选址和竞争的结果,决定了城市内部的空间结构形态。本文从城市土地利用要素的空间分布出发,回顾了城市空间结构的经典理论,探讨了居住与就业空间关系的外在表现和内在经济机制,特别是集聚经济和通勤成本这两个相反经济力量是如何相互作用以决定城市空间结构基本特征的。在此基础上,对当前备受关注的交通拥堵、环境污染、弱势群体就业障碍及住房问题等“城市病”的缘由和改善途径加以讨论。城市政策应对土地利用、交通和环境进行统筹考虑,并设计恰当的制度激励机制,使个体行为的外部性进行正确的“内部化”,这可以提高城市效率和居民生活质量,改善环境影响并促进城市发展的可持续性。     

Air pollution and mental health: Evidence from China Health and Nutrition Survey

Using the mental health data of the elderly in China Health and Nutrition Survey and city-level air pollution data, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of air pollution on the mental health of the elderly. Results show that with the aggravation of air pollution, the mental health of the elderly decreases significantly. Specifically, a 10 μg/m³ increase in air pollution causes a decrease of 2.43 points in mental health. Air pollution has a greater effect on males, rural residents, and low-income and low-education groups. In addition, this paper tests two mechanisms, namely, health status and individual activity, and finds that air pollution can reduce mental health by increasing the incidence and severity of disease. Moreover, the intensification of air pollution leads the elderly to prefer indoor activities. Based on individual data, this paper estimates the health effects of air pollution, which provides a basis for the formulation of environmental and health policies.     

The Role of TTIP on the Environment

The current study empirically investigates and shows that, on average, the possible implementation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) would generally help in the fight against global warming. In particular, the study finds that a 1% increase in the bilateral trade between the United States and the typical EU member would reduce annual per capita emissions of CO₂ and GHGs in the typical TTIP member by about 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively. However, results also show that TTIP may increase annual per capita emissions of GHGs in the United States by about 2.5% per year. These results stand because the factor endowment hypothesis and the pollution haven hypothesis based on population density variations appear to dominate the pollution haven hypothesis based on national income differences.     

Environmental regulation and outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of environmental regulation (ER) on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in China. During the period from 2013 to 2015, all Chinese cities were required to join a nationwide automatic air quality monitoring network in batches, and this policy exogenously raised local environmental regulation. This unique policy implemented full coverage through a staggered adoption, which motivates this paper to apply an event study approach to identify the treatment effect of stringent environmental regulation. Based on a city-year level capital outflows dataset constructed from the fDi Markets database, we obtain three main findings: (1) environmental regulation significantly stimulates outward FDI flows; (2) this promoting effect centers on polluting industries; and (3) these ER-induced FDI outflows are mainly directed toward countries with weaker environmental protection and with a closer geographic and cultural distance to the home country. These results together provide a snapshot confirming the classical “pollution haven hypothesis”.     

Economic policy uncertainty and industrial pollution: The role of environmental supervision by local governments

This paper explores the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on industrial pollution using China's real-time pollution data and a novel news-based EPU index constructed by Davis, Liu, and Sheng (2019). Empirical results suggest that EPU can significantly promote sulfur dioxide (SO₂) readings in cities experiencing higher ex-ante fiscal pressure, and this effect is more profound during the daytime. Given that SO₂ is the main contributor to industrial pollution, and local governments have less incentive to monitor illegal pollutant discharges during the nighttime period, our findings indicate that rising EPU will harm the environment by motivating local authorities to reduce environmental supervision and thus increase industrial pollution. We also find that promoting regional innovation and strengthening external environmental regulations can mitigate the pollution effect of economic policy uncertainty.     

Employment,schooling and productivity growth

Summary This paper presents an empirical analysis of labour demand and labour productivity growth in The Netherlands. Assuming an aggregate production function with as factors capital and 3 types of labour, distinguished by educational attainment, cost minimization leads to a set of 3 labour demand relations to be estimated on time series data. Using the estimates and the implied elasticities, aggregate labour productivity growth is decomposed into factor substitution, autonomous factors, labour time shortening, economies of scale, utilization rates and the increased educational level of the working population. The contributions of substitution, utilization rates and education appear to be substantial, notably in the seventies.

List of symbols

Variables a _i Efficiency index of skill leveli - C production - h _i working-time index for skill leveli - g _i steady-state growth rate of skill leveli - K capital stock - L _i employment volume of skill leveli - L _i ^* desired level of labour skill leveli - p output price - p ^* desired output price - s _i ^* long-run static labour shares in the production value - p _k rental price of capital - P index of total factor productivity - P _l index of labour productivity - u _i utilization rate of skill leveli - u _k utilization rate of capital - w _i wage rate for skill leveli - y production volume - y _yij Hicks partial elasticities of complementarity - _i steady-state cost share of skill leveli - _k Bk steady-state cost share of capital - _f lf highest level price index in cost function nesting - _g 4 intermediate level price index in cost function nesting - _h 4 lowest level price index in cost function nesting - _i steady-state relative wage share of skill leveli - _ij Allen partial elasticities of substitution Parameters d _i l adjustment speed of skill leveli - d _p price adjustment speed - M mark-up on marginal costs - scale elasticity of production - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = 3, g - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = k, h - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i =1, 2 - _i autonomous labour productivity growth for skill leveli - _i cost share of skill level in base year - _f production cost index in base year - _i hours elasticity in labour efficiency index - group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₃ and (K, (L ₁,L ₂)) - _g Og group elasticity of substitution betweenK and (L ₁,L ₂) - _h 6h group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₁ andL ₂ We would like to thank B. Downey, G.M.M. Gelauff, A. Nieuwenhuis, J.M.M. Ritzen, J.C. Siebrand and an unknown referee for helpful comments on earlier drafts.     

Pollution abatement costs and technical changes under different environmental regulations

Balancing economic growth and environmental protection is a global issue that requires both scientific and economic consideration. In this study, we employed a joint production model that accounted for both favorable and unfavorable outputs to calculate the changes in pollution abatement costs (PACs) and the decomposition of SO₂ emissions in China's industrial sector from 2001– to 2015. Command-and-control and tradable permit environmental regulation scenarios were specified to assess PACs and changes in these costs associated with changes in technology, input, and unfavorable output production. Our empirical results show that the PACs increased by 0.06% and 0.34% under command-and-control and tradable permit scenarios, respectively. Further analyses of these changes indicated that regulated technology grew faster than unregulated under both scenarios; overall, command-and-control regulations were more conducive to green technological innovations. Both types of environmental regulation reduced industrial SO₂ emissions, and the difference between them was minimal. Under the two scenarios, the pollution emissions intensity decreased. Moreover, because the tradable permit policy improved favorable output production via the optimal allocation of resources, the intensity of pollution emissions was significantly lower. As there were advantages to both regulatory options, their balanced application is vital in the short-run. In the long-term, measures should be taken to ensure the full trading of SO₂ emission rights. The focus of environmental policies should gradually shift to an emissions trading system to achieve the balanced development of China's environment and economy.     

福州市LNG公交车辆发展需破阻前行

汽车的尾气排放的污染物已经成为城市大气的主要污染源,而且随着汽车数量的增加,污染将日益严重。本文通过对目前新能源车辆发展状况分析,提出实现城市绿色交通,首先解决城市公交车辆的污染现状是重中之重,以福州市LNG公交车目前的发展状况为例,对其进行可行性分析,权衡利弊,为福州市的绿色交通建设,提出一些看法和建议。