An investigation into traveler preferences and acceptance levels of airline ancillary revenues

This study determines traveler preferences and acceptability levels for a range of airline ancillary products and services by employing an on-line passenger survey to examine booking preferences as well as attitudes toward a selection of air and non-air travel components sold by the airlines. The survey results are combined with expert opinions collated from a recent international conference, along with secondary data, to generate an acceptance ranking which can be used by a range of airlines to formulate their ancillary revenue strategies. It is found that airport car parking and checked baggage charges proved to be the most accepted commission based and unbundled products for airlines to sell respectively. Despite the recent focus and successes in ancillary revenues, however, it can also observed that none of the ancillary products and services examined in this study achieved a high take up rating suggesting that airlines can do much more to convince travelers of the benefit and value in airlines selling non-core products and services to them.     

Network industries in collision: aviation infrastructure capacity,financing and the exposure to traffic declines

This paper discusses how various aviation infrastructure service providers have dealt with the fall off in airline traffic following the terrorist attacks in the US on September 11th. It shows that these organizations have relatively high fixed costs and low incremental costs for providing services. As such, small changes in traffic have large impacts on revenue because revenues are generally proportional to activity. However, because of the high component of common and fixed costs, airport and ATS provider costs do not change in proportion to activity. When traffic declines, revenue shortfalls can arise because most airport and ATC systems operate on a simple cost recovery basis. The responses to the events of September 11th have also caused substantial increases in security costs. To the extent these costs are passed forward to system users, they will increase the price of travel and impact patronage further. Airlines also have substantial fixed capacity costs. The declines in traffic are often felt as an erosion of yields and fares as carriers seek to maintain traffic loads for the capacity they are going to operate. In general, the ability to pass along cost increases from providers to airlines or from airlines to passengers depends on relative supply and demand elasticities. Because infrastructure provision is often a monopoly, and the demand for airline services is price elastic, we suggest that most of the cost increases will be borne by the airlines. We also suggest that short-haul flights will be most severely impacted because the fees and taxes are a larger proportion of the fare for these flights. We also examine the extent to which additional infrastructure costs imposed on operators may exacerbate the downturn in their traffic.     

Advance purchase behaviors of air passengers: A continuous logit model

Modeling the advance purchase behaviors of air passengers is essential when airlines develop revenue management strategies. Therefore, this study empirically investigates advance purchase behaviors based on the air ticket transaction data by using a continuous logit model. The estimation results show that advance purchase behaviors are significantly affected by price, price uncertainty, time of day (morning, afternoon and evening flight), days of week (flight on Friday), months of year (peak or off-peak seasons), and consecutive holiday. Accordingly, different pricing strategies should be used for different flights to maximize revenue.     

Airline demand distributions: passenger revenue management and spill

Both revenue management and airline schedule optimization need to characterize the distribution of likely demand outcomes. Sources have proposed both Gamma and Normal shapes for these distributions. Data suggests that a model combining both distributions is appropriate. The model explains when the Gamma shape will dominate and when the Normal will determine the shape. One consequence of this understanding is that Gamma shapes are probably better for revenue management and Normal for spill modeling. However, it takes a compound process combining the two to generate all the observed characteristics of various cases.     

Airline cost changes: To what extent are they passed through to the passenger?

Since the start of the Millennium airline costs have been highly volatile, mainly due to large fluctuations in jet fuel prices. An important question for airlines and regulators is whether airlines are able to pass through cost changes to their prices. Little empirical evidence on the pass-through of costs exists. In this paper, we investigate which pass-through rates are most likely. According to economic theory, the pass-through of costs depends strongly on the type of cost increase (firm-specific or sector-wide) and market conditions (monopoly, oligopoly, perfect competition). In monopolistic markets, the shape of the demand curve also matters (linear, constant elasticity, log, power function). A pass-through rate of 100% is often assumed based on the reasoning that the aviation sector is highly competitive. We analyse market concentration in all airline markets in the world, and generally find a high level of concentration. Additionally, different airlines offer different products based on a variety of factors, including service, flight frequency, legroom, bags allowed on board, flight time and transfer time. Therefore, most aviation markets can be characterised as differentiated oligopolies. As airlines choose their quantities first (flight schedules) and adapt their prices to demand (yield management), we consider the Cournot model the best choice. In such markets, firmspecific cost changes will be passed through by a rate of less than half while sector-wide cost changes are passed through by a rate of more than half. In specific situations, the pass-through rate may be different. Examples are limited airport capacity (congestion), cross-subsidization, and the extent to which there is a level playing field.     

Efficiency of US airlines: A strategic operating model

This paper applies the unoriented DEA network methodology to measure US airlines' performance relative to that of peer airlines and identifies the sources of its inefficiency. The analysis of the results suggests that major US airlines are more efficient than national US airlines in spending operating expenses and gaining operating revenue, but there is no significant difference in their service supply and demand efficiencies.     

A method for reducing information asymmetry in destination–airline relationships

We propose a measure of business risk in air travel demand at the route level that can reduce information asymmetry during route development negotiations between tourism destinations and airlines. Aviation-exposed risk (AER) conveys information about the level of uncertainty with regard to air travel demand from an airline’s perspective. Using AER, tourism destinations and air service development teams can evaluate their risks from the perspective of the airline and its network. From there, an assessment can be made as to the value of air services in certain circumstances, including whether a direct underwrite or risk share between airlines and destinations is viable and necessary. By applying a portfolio analysis to an airline’s network, we find evidence that AER does indeed mimic the actual capacity distribution of the network. This provides support for AER as a useful risk measure to be used in practice.     

Robust optimization for United States Department of Agriculture food aid bid allocations

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) currently uses a bidding system to determine carriers and suppliers that would partner in providing food aid annually in response to global emergencies and famine. We mimic the USDA approach via a robust optimization model featuring box and ellipsoid uncertainty frameworks to account for uncertainties in demand, supplier and carrier bid prices. Through a case study utilizing historical invoice data, we demonstrate our model applicability in improving ocean carrier and food supplier bid pricing strategy and similar supply chain network optimization problems. Through a validation algorithm we demonstrate the value of our robust models.     

Cost and revenue synergies in airline mergers – Examining geographical differences

Deregulation, privatization and shifting demand patterns in the airline industry, combined with the emergence of low-cost airlines and rising fuel prices have increased the competitive pressure on legacy airlines. Since alliances do not deliver sufficient benefits to counterbalance these trends, many airlines have engaged in mergers to seek for additional cost and revenue synergies. An extent body of literature investigates the synergy potential in mergers and alliances, but there is no study on how synergies differ among mergers and what potential influence factors cause these differences. This paper aims at explaining differences in synergy estimates and realized synergies in recent airline mergers and places a special focus on geographical influence factors.The research methodology uses a comparative case study comprising six large airline mergers between 2003 and 2012 from Europe, North America and Latin America. After analyzing the cases individually, the pre-merger situation of the merging airlines, the synergy estimates and the realized synergies of the cases were compared.The results show considerable geographical differences in pre-merger cost structures, synergy estimates, and synergy realization. The European mergers present lower synergy estimates but also lower integration costs than mergers in the Americas. Whereas European airlines estimate cost synergies higher than revenue synergies, both North and Latin American airlines expect more revenue synergies than cost synergies from airline mergers. Only one merger showed superior post-merger profitability which indicates that the achieved synergies in the broad majority of the cases are insignificant.     

An airline's management strategies in a competitive air transport market

Over the last decade, the demand for domestic and international flights in Korea has increased substantially. To meet the strong flight demands, several low cost carriers have begun to offer flight services. In addition, full service carriers have been motivated to establish their own subsidiary low cost carriers to maintain their market share against rival low cost carriers. This paper studies the management strategies of three kinds of airlines - full service carrier, its subsidiary low cost carrier and rival low cost carrier - based on game theory in the competitive air transport market. Each airline is assumed to act as a player and chooses strategies regarding airfare, flight frequency, and the number of operating aircrafts for specific routes while maximizing its own profits. Demand leakages between the airlines are considered in the flight demand function according to the selected strategies of all airlines. Through various game situations reflecting realistic features, this study provides managerial insights that can be applied in the competitive air transport market.     

The future of airports post COVID-19

COVID-19 pandemic has hit most sectors of the world and has led to many industries coming to a standstill. It has led to restrictions of movement and travel ban. As a result of these restrictions, transport sector especially in aviation has impacted badly.With the uncertainty of further impact of the current situation, there is a likelihood of the aviation business rebounding at a slower pace bringing V-shape and U-shape recovery as per analysis of economic impacts on civil aviation by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO (2020). Currently, airline capacity is down 70 to 80 percent in April 2020 compared to April 2019, and multiple large airlines have temporarily ceased operations. Largely, almost 60 percent of the global fleet was grounded in early April 2020 as per McKinsey report (Curley et al., 2020).In order to support the sinking capacities and revenues, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) calls on the European governments to provide relief to their airlines to sustain their operations. Furthermore, this document highlights the future of airport and air transport industry based on revenue generation sources, cost control strategies and integration of innovations with respect to variable demand and capacity during and post COVID-19.     

Aircraft replacement scheduling: A dynamic programming approach

This study developed a stochastic dynamic programming model to optimize airline decisions regarding purchasing, leasing, or disposing of aircraft over time. Grey topological models with Markov-chain were employed to forecast passenger traffic and capture the randomness of the demand. The results show that severe demand fluctuations would drive the airline to lease rather than to purchase its aircrafts. This would allow greater flexibility in fleet management and allows for matching short-term variations in the demand. The results of this study provide a useful reference for airlines in their replacement decision-making procedure by taking into consideration the fluctuations in the market demand and the status of the aircraft.     

Robust optimization for fleet planning under uncertainty

We create a formulation and a solution procedure for fleet sizing under uncertainty in future demands and operating conditions. The formulation focuses on robust optimization, using a partial moment measure of risk. This risk measure is incorporated into the expected recourse function of a two-stage stochastic programming formulation, and stochastic decomposition is used as a solution procedure. A numerical example illustrates the importance of including uncertainty in the fleet sizing problem formulation, and the nature of the fundamental tradeoff between acquiring more vehicles and accepting the risk of potentially high costs if insufficient resources are available.     

On the fairness of airlines’ ticket pricing as a result of revenue management techniques

Pricing and availability of tickets have always been a source of confusion for customers in transportation industries. What is the best time to buy tickets? Why passengers taking the same flight might pay significantly different prices for the same seat? Why round trip tickets between two cities sometimes become cheaper than the one-way flights between them? Is it fair to buy a ticket for an itinerary cheaper than a ticket for just a part of it? These observations make customers wonder why they pay higher prices for shorter flights. In this paper, we study the airlines’ revenue management systems and explain some of these pricing schemes in travel industries. We develop a simulator to study the decision making process of network revenue management and use a numerical study to explore these questions and address some explanations for them. We relate these observations to the revenue management measurements such as the bid price or the adjustment cost and show how the dynamic of the network get influenced by these measures that eventually results in unusual pricing. We explain how a zero or small bid price of a specific leg may cause the price of an itinerary be cheaper than one segment of it and that the small bid price is caused by low demand in comparison to the available capacity. We exhibit network revenue management system and show the above issues for a small network.     

Robust hub network design problem

This paper presents a robust formulation for the uncapacitated single and multiple allocation hub location problem where demand is uncertain and its distribution is not fully specified. The proposed robust model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear program and then transformed into a mixed integer conic quadratic program. An efficient linear relaxation strategy is proposed which is found to deliver the optimal solutions for all the cases considered in this paper. Numerical experiments suggest location of more number of hubs when accounting for demand uncertainty using robust optimization compared to the deterministic setting.     

Services and functions provided by European city tourist offices: a longitudinal study

Tourism has become a major source of employment, revenue, international awareness and opportunity in European cities. As competition among European cities grows, the efficiency of management in city tourism organisations (CTOs) becomes increasingly important. This article reports on a longitudinal study of 50 European CTOs over the 4‐year period from 1995 to 1999. The aim of the study is to examine the changes in functions provided by European CTOs during the given period of time. Findings reveal that five identifiable function categories can characterise the changes that happened during the given period of time: hotel booking service, commerce, conventional information dissemination, advanced information product and relationship management. It is argued that information technology and role change are the main driving forces of these changes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Airport–airline interaction: the impact of low-cost carriers on two European airports

This paper uses case studies to look at the impact of low-cost airlines on two European airports. Low-cost airlines continue to exert an influence in air transport markets and small airports face pressures to compete for their business. The low-cost model motivates airlines to negotiate contracts that significantly reduce aeronautical revenues, leaving airports to compensate by seeking commercial revenues from the increase in passengers. This has consequences for the airports, their passengers and the relationship between the airport and its existing operators. It is found that it is important for airport management to see both passengers and airlines as customers and to understand the resultant revenue streams, before negotiating preferential contracts with low-cost carriers.     

Direct air transport and demand interaction: A vector error-correction model approach

The goal of this paper is to impose a cause–effect structure into the relation between tourism demand and air transport capacity. Specifically, we apply a vector error-correction model to assess if, and to what extent, capacity or passenger demand are first-movers that return to long-run equilibrium following short-run deviations. Using data on international aviation between Australia and our test cases of China and Japan, we find that demand on the Japan–Australia market corrects for short-run deviations from the long-run equilibrium quicker than the China–Australia market. Reasons for such variation in adjustment speeds are discussed and we show that the results are robust to the phenomenon of airlines pre-empting demand when setting capacity.     

Effects of cargo types and load efficiency on airline cargo revenues

Numerous factors affect air cargo revenue management. Air cargo companies base their cargo charges on whichever is the greater of gross weight or volumetric weight. We developed a cargo consolidation model based on air cargo characteristics, and investigated the effect of cargo density, the Density Ratio of Heavy cargo to Light cargo (DRHL), and the percentage of small cargo on the chargeable weights and revenues of airlines. The empirical results show that a higher DRHL indicates greater chargeable weight, and that as the DRHL climbs to a certain level, the extent of chargeable cargo weights tends to stabilize gradually. The closer the cargo density approaches the most suitable loading density for a flight, the greater the chargeable weight is. A higher proportion of small cargo loaded on an aircraft means higher airline revenue. Our results can effectively combine types of air cargo to increase loading rates and revenues for airlines.     

Multimarket contact, alliance membership, and prices in international airline markets

This paper tests the mutual forbearance view in the context of airline alliances in the international air travel market. Using passenger booking and airfare data on transpacific routes, we find consistent evidence for the positive association between multimarket contact and airfares. Our results also suggest that multimarket contact between non-aligned airlines is associated with higher airfares, whereas multimarket contact between airlines in the same alliance has no additional upward impact on airfares. Moreover, it is shown that higher airfares tend to exist when airlines have greater multimarket contact on open-skies routes. In restrictive (non-liberal) international markets, however, multimarket contact may not affect airfare.