Predicting Under- and Overperforming SKUs within the Distribution–Market Share Relationship

This research presents a retail analytics application which uses machine learning (ML) to identify and predict under- and overperforming consumer packaged goods (CPGs) using retail scanner data. Essential to measuring market performance at the SKU level is the relationship between distribution and market share (the velocity curve). We validate that ML can reproduce the velocity curve, and ML is further used to predict underperforming, in-line performing, and overperforming SKUs relative to the velocity curve, based on a range of variables (SKU features) at a point in time. Our ML approach can correctly predict 83% of SKUs as under-, in-line-, or overperforming based on their characteristics. The research analyzes 9,321 SKUs of 2,565 brands across seven product categories of CPGs which were sold in 8,117 stores from 49 different retail chains of five different retail channels located in the US states of California, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin. The retail stores comprise convenience stores, drug stores, food stores, liquor stores, and mass merchandise retail stores. The data is Nielsen retail store scanner data for the calendar year 2014. The relationship between distribution and market share is a market-wide proxy for the ratio of relative sales in a category to, for example, aggregate shelf space, a key retail productivity metric. We further find indications that the distribution of SKUs across different store sizes, the stores’ category specialization, the line length of the brands, the overall performance of the parent brand, and sales consistency are the most important characteristics for the prediction of market share performance beyond the velocity curve. The methods and results presented will help CPG marketers (suppliers and retailers) understand which SKUs are under-, in-line-, or overperforming and the potential factors contributing to that performance. Optimizing assortments and portfolios is essential to decrease failure rates of individual SKUs. ML approaches can evolve to complementary support tools for such management problems.     

Category management,product assortment,and consumer welfare

In this article, we endogenize product assortment decisions under a category management (CM) framework in a channel setup. We find that (1) product assortment is polarized more under CM than under a non-CM regime; (2) the price of a high-end (low-end) product in an assortment increases (decreases) under CM than under a non-CM regime; and (3) a high-quality manufacturer makes more profit than a low-quality manufacturer. In our model, the manufacturer’s choice of quality and its polarization is driven by the existence and the decisions of the retailer (CM or non-CM). Finally, we have an interesting result on consumer welfare. We find that the total consumer welfare, as measured by consumer surplus, worsens under CM only when there is sufficient heterogeneity in consumers’ tastes.     

When Shelf-Based Scarcity Impacts Consumer Preferences

Shelf-based scarcity in the form of relative stocking level depletion significantly affects consumer preferences (van Herpen et al. 2009). While both popularity and quality inferences are induced by stocking-level depletion, this paper demonstrates that popularity (rather than quality) inferences are the primary driver of the effect. Shelf-based scarcity is shown to have an impact in the presence of other signals, such as brand names and quality ratings, which indicates its effect may be widespread. However, its effect on preferences is greatly decreased by the presence of strong prior preferences and/or price promotions, indicating that shelf-based scarcity is likely to affect choices when consumers lack strong prior preferences and under conditions where price promotions are either not present or are similar across alternatives.     

Managing price expectations through product overlap

How should a retailer think about the decision to carry, price, and promote products that overlap with another store when such overlap is predicted to intensify price competition and drive down product prices? The existing research suggests that retailers should look to carry an ever-increasing percentage of unique or non-overlapping products [J. Marketing 61 (1997) 38; Marketing Sci. 19 (2000) 83], thereby eliminating the ability to compare prices across stores.We challenge this recommendation, arguing that overlapping products allow one type of retailer—the higher end retailer—to signal the fairness of its prices and foster a more favorable price image than might otherwise exist. In a laboratory study, we show that, for higher end stores, the existence of overlapping products can significantly increase perceptions of pricing fairness and subsequent store choice, even when those overlapping products are no cheaper in the focal store than in a competing store.     

The Impact of Brand Delisting on Store Switching and Brand Switching Intentions

A tool retailers often use to improve their negotiating position with brand manufacturers is to delist - or threaten to delist - the manufacturers’ brand. Because brand manufacturers rely mainly on retailers to sell their products to consumers, a brand delisting will cause a sales loss for the brand manufacturer. Therefore, many brand manufacturers feel enormous pressure to give in and improve buying conditions to favor the retailer. The question thus emerges: Can a brand manufacturer resist a retailer's threat to delist its brand(s)? If a brand delisting severely hurts retail sales, it is easier for a brand manufacturer to resist. The authors study the impact of brand delistings on store switching and brand switching using a controlled online experiment and in-store shopper survey. They develop and test a conceptual model with several antecedents of consumers’ reactions to a brand delisting and conclude that brand equity, market share, and the products’ hedonic level drive store and brand switching.     

Retailer Dynamic Pricing and Ordering Decisions: Category Management versus Brand-by-Brand Approaches

This paper provides a framework for retailer pricing and ordering decisions in a dynamic category management setting. In this regard, the key contributions of this paper are as follows. First, we develop a multi-brand ordering and pricing model that endogenizes retailer forward buying and maximizes profitability for the category. The model considers (i) manufacturer trade deals to retailers, (ii) ordering costs incurred by the retailer, (iii) retailer forward buying behavior, and (iv) both own- and cross-price effects of all the brands in the category. Second, we use this model to compare differences in ordering and pricing decisions, and in profits, resulting from using a category management versus a brand-by-brand management approach. Our approach allows us to derive implications in a dynamic setting about the impact of interdependence among the brands upon decisions on pass-through of trade deals and retailer order quantity. We show that category management results in noticeably higher profits versus brand-by-brand and cost-plus (markup) approaches. Further, our results suggest an interaction between a brand's own-price effect and its cross-price effect emerges. If the cross-price effect for a brand is low - that is, the brand takes away relatively few sales from the other brands - the retail pass-through should increase with that brand's own-price effect. On the other hand, when the cross-price effect is high, the retail pass-through decreases with the brand's own-price effect.     

A COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND INTENDED CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN RESPONSE TO RETAIL STOCKOUTS

Studies of consumer response to stockouts typically capture intended behavior. After a stockout experience, consumers are asked what they intend to do. In contrast, this research measured both intended and actual behavior. Consumers were interviewed twice; once immediately following the stockout experience to gauge intended behavior and a second time 30 days later to ask what they had actually done in response to the stockout. Accordingly, the goals of this research are to (1) compare consumer actual and intended behavior in response to stockouts and (2) examine product characteristics, consumer characteristics and situational variables that may explain the consumer's response. Key results suggest that indicated behavior is a good indicator of actual behavior in situations where the consumer intends to quit the search and a rather poor indicator when the consumer intends to delay the search. Finally, of the several product characteristics, consumer characteristics and situational variables examined, store loyalty, pre‐visit agenda and product uniqueness have shown most promise to help managers understand consumer actual and intended response to stockouts.     

The Gaps in Retail Human Resource Management:

Human resource management is a critical determinant of retail organizational performance and profitability. It is estimated that the retail turnover currently is costing the industry $7.7 billion. If the current trends continue in constant dollars, this figure will be $9.2 billion in the year 2010. In current dollars this estimate will go up to $16.02 billion. Good human resource management can reduce this amount significantly. Despite its importance, retail human resource management remains a largely neglected area. Buildings on a basic model of the human resource management process, this paper provides a brief review of key personell issues, followed by a suggested research agenda. It is maintained that human resource management in the retailing sector has many major gaps. Eliminating these gaps by improving the overall human resource management activity in retailing will yield total quality management (TQM) in retailing and will enhance the retail competitive advantage. Additionally, there will be significant contribution to the overall performance of the total marketing channel.     

Customer deviance in retailing: Managers’ emotional support and employees’ affective wellbeing

Retail employees are increasingly under pressure as they are confronted with the dark side of customer behaviour: Customer deviance (NCD). Consequently, retailers face difficulties retaining employees in the job leading to workforce shortage in the industry as more and more retail workers leave their jobs. While some academic research displays the impact of NCD in retail, it leaves its effects on employees, their intentions to leave the job, including the mitigating factor of managerial support structures unexplored. Applying the job demands-resources model, this research fills this gap by investigating NCD in store-based retail, by identifying a series of employees' responses in correspondence with such behaviours and by revealing various support factors as moderators of NCD's effects on employees. Structural equation modelling of data obtained from surveying 108 retail employees in stores confirms the mediation of emotional exhaustion, affective ill-being and job (dis-)satisfaction, in the context of employees facing NCD and their leaving intention. The research raises awareness for emotional care in the form of managerial strategies targeting emotions, the supervisor's role and trust-enhancing mechanisms in retail care management, in order to attenuate NCD's negative effects on retail employees.     

Key influencers and inhibitors on adoption of the Internet for banking

The focus on new technologies in service situations is growing and is of particular importance in financial services contexts. It is argued that there is mutuality of benefit for both bank and customer through the adoption of self-service technologies (SSTs), of which e-banking is but one example. While the economic imperative for banks’ adoption of e-banking solutions is clear, the value proposition for the customer can be less evident. It is proposed that the value proposition on offer through e-banking could be better conveyed to customers were banks to have a greater understanding of the appropriateness of the on-line medium for products as they varied according to complexity level. This paper reports on a study which examined customer-stated propensity to purchase financial products on-line at varying levels of complexity. Findings underline the importance for banks to achieve a customer-oriented balance between face-to-face relationship-managed activity and online enablement and to understand now this balance varies according to customer and complexity of product. Strategic marketing implications for the case bank are discussed.     

Managing conflict to improve the effectiveness of retail networks

Retailers are becoming involved with networks consisting of multiple firms in order to more effectively perform business activities such as supply chain management. This research develops and tests a framework outlining the effects of conflict in networks and how conflict management can mitigate and exacerbate these effects. A study of 81 simulated networks finds that inter-personal and task conflict have a negative effect on network member satisfaction and desire to be a member of the network. The use of a collaborative conflict management style has a positive effect on satisfaction and desire for continuity, but the effects of accommodative and confrontational styles depend on the level of inter-personal and task conflict present in the network.     

反思与定位：建构中国特色的政府绩效管理

当前中国政府绩效管理过程中政府自身之＂被动＂、学术界倡导绩效管理理念之＂冲动＂、媒体舆论对政府绩效评估之＂盲动＂、社会公民在政府绩效管理中之＂不动＂现象,值得剖析与反思;只有清醒领悟政府绩效管理是一场持续渐进之运动,只有建构以伦理与制度结合之中国特色的政府绩效管理,才有助于实现政府持续改进、人民满意与社会和谐之目的。     

Measuring retail performance in an omni-channel world

Abstract

Driven by global advances in technology and changes in consumer buying behavior, brick-and-mortar retailers are being forced to become omni-channel retailers. This calls for new metrics for evaluating retail performance. We examine the challenges facing the retail industry, the metrics that traditional brick-and-mortar stores have used as well as the new metrics that retail industry experts are suggesting for online retailing. A conceptual framework for omni-channel retailers is suggested.     

To Justify or Not to Justify: The Role of Anticipated Regret on Consumers’ Decisions to Upgrade Technological Innovations

Prior research suggests that adoption decisions are primarily based on product features and experiential opportunities, like trial and observation. Our research follows inquiries that identify anticipated regret (AR) as an emotion integral to consumer decision making. Prior research and current retailing practice assume that AR can be alleviated by compelling product attribute-based rationales for immediate purchase. These rationales often take the form of direct attribute comparisons between the current best and the future technologies. Counter-intuitively, we find that giving consumers attribute-based justifications for immediate purchase produces a uniform level of AR and purchase delay regardless of the perceived rate of innovation (PRI). However, under conditions of low PRI and no justification, AR decreases significantly. A clear implication of our findings is that firms marketing current technology should not rush to provide consumers with justifications for immediate upgrade since such communications will remind consumers of what they might miss if they adopt now, resulting in increased AR and purchase delays. Instead, we suggest that retailers focus promotional efforts on highlighting the hedonic benefits consumers experience by adopting today.     

The performance implications of entrepreneurial proclivity: A dynamic capabilties approach

Retail performance is driven in part by a retailer's ability to not only develop knowledge resources, but also convert these resources into the dynamic capability of market responsiveness. The results of this study add to the growing literature on dynamic capabilities by showing that the management orientation of entrepreneurial proclivity not only aids in the accumulation of knowledge resources, but can aid (as well as hinder) the conversion of these resources into dynamic capabilities. Specifically, we show that the management orientation of entrepreneurial proclivity increases the accumulation of knowledge resources, in addition to enhancing the conversion of one knowledge resource (knowledge of suppliers) in the capability of market responsiveness. However, this same management orientation also diminishes the conversion of another knowledge resource (knowledge of regulatory agencies). The results are based on a survey of 269 small retailers.