The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach

This study examines the short-term impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on 52 listed airline companies around the world by using event study methodology. The results demonstrate that airline stock returns decline more significantly than the market returns after three major COVID-19 announcements were made. Overall, investors react differently during the three selected events. The strongest overreaction is noted in the post-event period of the World Health Organization's and President Trump's official announcements. Moreover, the findings confirm that traders in Western countries are more responsive to recent information than the rest of the world. The findings call for immediate policy designs in order to alleviate the impact of the pandemic in the airline industry around the globe.     

Occupancy,oil prices,and stock returns: Evidence from the U.S. airline industry

This paper examines whether occupancy of seats affects stock returns of airline companies and how this relationship is affected by WTI oil prices. Our approach combines revenues (occupancy) and costs (oil prices) for 33 U.S. airline companies from 1990 to 2019. Using travel capacity utilization data from U.S. carriers at monthly frequency and exploiting fixed-effects regression models, we document a positive relation between occupancy and stock returns, which is attenuated by oil prices. The role of oil becomes larger with asymmetries: the effects of oil prices are higher when moving up than down. Airline stocks always respond by more than the overall stock market.     

The geographic effects of US airline alliances

Code-share agreements in the airline industry allow participants the opportunity to offer service to destinations they do not physically serve. This paper concentrates on the recently proposed domestic code-share agreements between United/Delta, Continental/Northwest, and American/US Airways, six of the largest commercial carriers in the United States. Changes in destinations served as well as geographic regions of dominance based upon market share are examined. The result is a clearer view of regions of dominance for each alliance in the United States. The proposed United/Delta alliance shows an expansion across the entire United States. The Continental/Northwest alliance allows the carriers to compete with the “Big Three”. The American/US Airways proposed alliance appears to benefit US Airways (US) more than American.     

The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market

China was the first airline market in the world to be hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been gradually recovering as the pandemic is largely contained domestically. However, with the global pandemic spread and great uncertainty, there has been a remarkable change in airline passengers’ travel behavior. This paper collected air passenger-level data from TravelSky in the Chinese market. In addition to the analyses on aggregate passenger flow patterns, this paper explores changes in airline passenger travel behavior, such as ticket booking time, age distribution of passengers, refunds and ticket changes, and passenger arrival time at airports. This is one of the first studies to focus on micro-level changes in airline passenger travel behavior by using objective passenger-level data. The pandemic-induced psychological changes in air travelers are explored, providing useful managerial and policymaking implications for the normalization of the pandemic and the recovery of the airline market in the post-pandemic era.     

The impact of low cost airline entry on competition, network expansion, and stock valuations

We conduct event studies and statistical analysis to explore the impact of low cost carriers’ entry on legacy airline stock prices. Oligopoly structures, entry barriers, and high fixed costs make the airline industry highly susceptible to competitive and network expansion impact of low cost airlines’ entry. Positive stock returns are observed, which we interpret as the spillover effects of network expansion. Thus, rising passenger traffic and improved connectivity increase the revenues of legacy airlines to sufficiently offset the low cost carriers’ competitive threats.     

The effects of China's airline mergers on prices

This paper looks at the effects of some of the recent airline mergers in China. Overall, no significant airfare increases are found in a sample of markets served by the merged China Eastern and China Southern after 2002; indeed in most of the markets directly affected airfares declined. This was despite the absence of antitrust laws and enforcement over the period. However, market power was possibly exercised after the mergers in China Eastern's hub-to-hub networks.     

Multimarket contact, alliance membership, and prices in international airline markets

This paper tests the mutual forbearance view in the context of airline alliances in the international air travel market. Using passenger booking and airfare data on transpacific routes, we find consistent evidence for the positive association between multimarket contact and airfares. Our results also suggest that multimarket contact between non-aligned airlines is associated with higher airfares, whereas multimarket contact between airlines in the same alliance has no additional upward impact on airfares. Moreover, it is shown that higher airfares tend to exist when airlines have greater multimarket contact on open-skies routes. In restrictive (non-liberal) international markets, however, multimarket contact may not affect airfare.     

The impact of airline lease agreements on the financial performance of US hub airports

This paper employs benchmarking analysis to examine the financial implications of the different types of airline lease agreements used by US airports. Five key financial performance areas relating to cost effectiveness, revenue generation, commercial performance, financial profitability and capital investment are analysed using financial data from 2011/12 for 23 of the 29 large-hub airports. The results show that compensatory airports are the most financially efficient, particularly in terms of debt efficiency, revenue generation and profitability while the vertical airport airline relationship that is common at residual airports delivers higher levels of commercial performance and cost efficiency.     

Mitigation of airspace congestion impact on airline networks

In recent years European airspace has become increasingly congested and airlines can now observe that en-route capacity constraints are the fastest growing source of flight delays. In 2010 this source of delay accounted for 19% of all flight delays in Europe and has been increasing with an average yearly rate of 17% from 2005 to 2010. This paper suggests and evaluates an approach to how disruption management can be combined with flight planning in order to create more proactive handling of the kind of disruptions, which are caused by congested airspace. The approach is evaluated using data from a medium size European carrier and estimates a lower bound saving of several million USD.     

Market orientation and business performance: An empirical investigation in the airline industry

As the airline industry has become more competitive, carriers have looked to improve performance and competitiveness. During the last decade, market-oriented corporate strategy has emerged as a significant antecedent of organizational performance and is presumed to contribute to long-term success. This study investigates potential influences of market orientation on airline performance. Data were collected by mail survey, and MARKOR was used to specify the dimensions of a market-orientated organization. The results support the positive influence of market orientation on business performance.     

Evolution of global airline strategic alliance and consolidation in the twenty-first century

Global airline strategic alliances have emerged since the late 1980s, and their number has slowly risen through the years. Will the number of such alliances continue to proliferate? Or will airlines consolidate with one another to form mega-carriers? In this paper, the likelihood of various airline consolidation and alliance development possibilities was examined based on a number of high-level trends and forces. The most probable near-term industry alliance and consolidation structure is described, accompanied with a probable path of evolution. These predictions have important implications for managers of strategic alliances, carriers who are currently in an alliance as well as carriers who are planning to join one.     

The impact of hubbing concentration on flight delays within airline networks: An empirical analysis of the US domestic market

This paper explores the relationship between hubbing activities and flight delays in the United States from an airline-specific network perspective. Airline hubbing is measured with the Hubbing Concentration Index. We estimate the impact of hubbing behavior on delays, using three measures of delay, two based on delay against schedule, and the third based on buffer-corrected excess travel times. A significant (and positive) influence of hubbing concentration can only be found for the latter delay indicator. We conclude that airlines use buffer times to mitigate passenger-perceived delays against schedule that would, without buffers, arise from more complex network operations.     

A study of the airline boarding problem

The airline industry is currently under intense pressure to simultaneously increase efficiency, customer satisfaction, and profitability. The boarding process is one way to achieve this objective as it lends itself to adaptive changes. The purpose of this paper is to determine the most cost-effective way to board passengers and still maintain quality and customer satisfaction. We conclude that the best strategy is to use a non-traditional methodology of outside-in or some modification thereof. The findings suggest that airline managers should consider issues related to evenly distributing boarding activity throughout the aircraft, developing more effective policies for managing carry-on luggage, and using simultaneous loading through two doors.     

Determinants of the payout decision in the airline industry

Payouts play an important role in the relationship between shareholders and agents in terms of rewarding the decisions of shareholders. Previous studies have observed that payout decisions appear in different ways depending on an industry's financial and operating structures. Since the airline industry has been characterized as high debt dependency, this study presumes distinctive characteristics on payouts determinants and identifies them influencing dividend payments and share repurchases. The results indicate that firm size, cash holdings, financial leverage, and life-cycle influence dividends payments, whereas firm size, cash holdings and life-cycle stage affect share repurchase. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

The strategic impact of airline group diversification: The cases of Emirates and Lufthansa

The airline industry is a diverse sector, requiring the support of a varied range of ancillary businesses such as maintenance, catering and travel agencies to carry out its activities. Many of these supporting businesses demonstrate the potential to drive wider profit margins despite generating lower revenues than the airlines themselves, making them attractive investment opportunities in a sector prone to volatile and often lacklustre trading. This study investigates two of the largest diversified airline groups, Germany's Lufthansa Group and Dubai's Emirates Group, each adopting a distinct approach towards diversification that may serve as a model for airline groups worldwide. The areas investigated were Cargo, Maintenance, Catering and Travel Services. The research found that whilst diversification may not always present the most attractive option financially, strategic factors can often outweigh such concerns. Business units studied were found to have variable prospects; particularly in the case of Catering, a sector on the rise – versus in-house Maintenance, which for airlines, is likely to see decline. The pursuit of third party revenue streams to offset weak internal trading and growth in competencies were found to be the key drivers of success. Interplay between segments was also apparent, showing that a well-organised diversification strategy can achieve robust cross-functional benefits and deliver significant value to the parent organisation.     

Commodity price pass-through in the US airline industry and the hidden perks of consolidation

How do changing jet fuel prices impact airline revenues? As expenses for jet fuel are one of the most relevant cost factors for airlines, their economic success largely depends on the ability to match changes on the cost side with an adaption on the revenue side. While previous studies primarily focused on the impact of fuel price changes to consumer prices, this paper empirically examines the ability of US airlines to pass-through lagged jet fuel prices to scaled operating revenues from an airline driven perspective. Our results suggest that the extent to which an exogenous increase in fuel prices can be passed on to revenues will deviate according to the competitive situation faced by an airline. Based on these findings our research should also be of interest for European policy makers who are discussing actions to exogenously increase jet fuel prices due to environmental reasons.     

A combined MCDM model based on DEMATEL and ANP for the selection of airline service quality improvement criteria: A study based on the Taiwanese airline industry

The aim of this study is to select airline service quality improvement criteria for the Taiwanese airline industry. Numerous factors such as low railway prices, the development of high-speed rail, increases in petroleum prices, increases in foreign airline competition, and the recent economic depression have led many airlines in Taiwan to encounter financial difficulties and even closure. Researchers have begun to identify critical service quality improvement criteria with the goal of increasing the competitive advantages of airlines. Most of the selected criteria, however, suffer from a major technical problem: all of the measurement dimensions are independent, leading to inadequate criteria for measuring service quality. Our calculations consider the interrelationships and effects among the evaluation dimensions and criteria to precisely rank and select criteria. The value of this study is that it provides airlines with a direction for measuring and improving their service quality with the goal of developing sustained competitive advantage over the long term.     

Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion

The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.