The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate

We study the empirical effects of fiscal policy in Denmark since the adoption of a fixed exchange rate policy in 1982. Denmark’s fixed exchange rate implies that the nominal interest rate remains fixed after a fiscal expansion, facilitating a substantial impact of the fiscal stimulus on the real economy. On the other hand, the large degree of openness of the Danish economy means that a sizeable share of the fiscal stimulus will be directed towards imported goods. Our results suggest that the ‘monetary accomodation channel’ dominates the ‘leakage effect’ in the short run. We demonstrate that fiscal stimulus has a rather large impact on economic activity in the very short run, with a government spending multiplier of 1.1 on impact in our preferred specification. We also find that the effects of fiscal stimulus are rather short-lived in Denmark, with the effect on output becoming insignificant after around two years. The fiscal multiplier is above 1 only in the first quarter, and drops to 0.6 one year after the shock. We also find that in the short run, the government spending multiplier is larger than the tax multiplier. Finally, we demonstrate that exogenous shocks to government spending account for less than 10 % of the movements in output over the business cycle in Denmark.     

基础设施建设支出、结构性减税与最优政策选择

财政政策的最优政策选择问题对于国家宏观调控政策的出台具有指导意义。既往的研究忽略了利用动态一般均衡的方法探求具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出与结构性减税支出的政策选择问题。本文利用引入基础设施建设支出和结构性减税的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,测算比较基建支出和结构性减税的政策福利效应。研究表明：具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出不仅可以通过提高生产效率的方式促进产出,还可以通过挤入居民消费的方式加强政策福利效应。经过测算,短期的基建支出乘数大于结构性减税的政策乘数。同时,基建支出长期平均产出乘数小于结构性减税的平均产出乘数。与结构性减税政策相比,增加基建支出对于财政资金有限的政府是短期内更加有效的产出刺激政策,但在长期中,结构性减税政策不仅具有较高的政策效应,还可以从消费、劳动、投资等角度实现结构性政策目标。进一步研究发现,地区经济发展水平的不同会导致各地区的最优政策选择存在差异性：发达地区可以通过结构性税收政策解决结构性问题的同时实现长期经济增长;而欠发达地区则更应该注重运用基础设施建设为主的支出政策以促进经济增长;但随着人口逐渐从欠发达地区流出,提高欠发达地区的基建支出是否是可行之策,还需要考虑区域协调发展等诸多因素。     

全球价值链参与对出口产品质量的影响

基于微观企业数据,研究了全球价值链分工对出口产品质量的影响,得到以下结论：从整体上看,企业GVC上游参与程度提高有助于提升出口产品质量,而下游参与程度提高阻碍了出口产品质量的提升。从分组检验中看,企业GVC上游参与度提高对出口产品质量有稳健的正效应;而下游参与度提高的效应对于不同特征的组别存在差异,加工贸易企业GVC下游参与度提高有利于产品质量的提高,而一般贸易企业GVC下游参与度提高不利于产品质量的提高;外资企业GVC下游参与度提高的质量效应较明显,而对于国有企业该效应较弱;低技术类型企业GVC下游参与度的提高有助于产品质量提升,而对中、高技术类型企业来说则有显著的负效应。文章还发现GVC下游参与通过"中间品效应"、"溢出效应"渠道提升了出口产品质量。     

The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.     

Can a rapidly growing export-oriented economy exit smoothly from a currency peg? Lessons from Japan’s high-growth era

We analyze the impact of Japan’s exit from its currency peg in 1971. We identify sizeable effects on Japanese exports and investment but find that the negative impacts on the economy were neutralized by strong global demand and domestic fiscal support. While our analysis suggests that a rapidly-growing, export-oriented economy can exit a peg for a managed float despite the presence of capital controls and the absence of sophisticated foreign currency forward markets, it underscores the importance of exiting while global conditions are favorable and points to the importance of using fiscal policy to support domestic demand as the rise in the real exchange rate slows the growth of net exports and investment.     

The role of the Spanish imperial state in the mining‐led growth of Bourbon Mexico's economy1

Colonial Mexico's economy experienced a long phase of growth during the eighteenth century. Around 1800, silver exports and fiscal surplus remittances from the colony rose to unprecedented levels. We study the contribution of the Spanish imperial state's policy to the expansion of silver production and the leading role of mining in economic growth and its fiscal implications. We find evidence to support a more favourable view of both the mining sector and the imperial state than that commonly presented in the literature. The interruption of colonial ‘mining‐led growth’ helps to explain the ‘lost decades’ for the economic development of Mexico after independence.     

关于次贷危机冲击下中国经济转型的思考

次贷危机对中国经济产生冲击已成事实,中国经济转型在所难免。本文所论述的经济转型不是以往学者所讨论的体制转型,而特指结构转型。中国经济以往过度依赖出口和投资拉动,危机后出口受挫,再过度依赖投资势必引发产能过剩和需求不足的矛盾。本文作者认为,当前中国经济的首要任务是拉动内需,而拉动内需必须和改善民生、发展社会福利事业结合起来。当前应采取积极的财政政策,财政支出的重点在于消除民众消费的瓶颈,大力发展民生工程和社会福利事业,积极促进就业。     

政企关系、财政补贴与公司经营绩效——基于中国旅游上市公司的经验证据

基于政企纽带的视角,文章以2008-2012年中国旅游上市公司的统计数据为样本,对政企关系、财政补贴和企业绩效三者间的关系进行了实证分析。研究表明:一方面政企关系对旅游企业财政补贴具有显著的正作用,即随着政企关系的增强,旅游企业获得的财政补贴就越多;另一方面,尽管旅游上市公司平均每年获得500多万财政补贴,但是旅游企业的财政补贴与旅游企业经营绩效无显著相关性,这意味着政府的财政补贴对旅游企业的经营绩效起不到激励作用。因此,应规范政府对旅游企业的补贴制度,建立有效的激励和监督机制,提高财政补贴效果。     

The computable general equilibrium analysis of the reduction in tariffs and non-tariff measures within the Korea-Japan-European Union free trade agreement

The trilateral Korea-Japan-EU FTA with the removal of tariffs can contribute to the increase GDPs of Korea, Japan, and the EU. The reduction of NTMs gives more benefits from the Korea-Japan-EU FTA. In particular, trilateral Korea-Japan-EU FTA with the reduction of both import tariffs and NTMs can give the larger increases in Korea, Japan and the EU’s GDPs, exports, and imports. Furthermore, the Korea-Japan-EU FTA also provides the positive welfare effects to all participating countries such as Korea, Japan the EU. And it can also contribute to increase the whole world’s welfare level. Thus, the Korea-Japan-EU FTA will be a win-win FTA strategy not only to Korea, Japan, and EU but also to the global world.     

How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?

China and India are rapidly growing, labor-abundant economies with very different export mixes. China is more integrated into global production sharing for manufactures, while services exports are more important for India. Even assuming India integrates more comprehensively into global production chains, there will be opportunities for rapid growth in both countries. Improvement in the range and quality of their exports can create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and can offset the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. Most countries will need to respond to increased competition in some sectors, and to greater opportunities in others.     

Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan

Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier into the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on the expenditure components. Our estimates suggest that there are crowding-in effects of government spending on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 and that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.     

COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss

This paper uses 2018 data as a benchmark to build a numerical 26-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost and an endogenous trade imbalance structure. We assume that COVID-19 will increase the trade cost between countries and decrease labor supply in production. We use China’s trade data from January to April in 2020 to calibrate the influence level parameters and then simulate the trade effects of COVID-19 in China, the EU, the US, and the world. Our simulation results find that all countries’ trade and exports will be significantly hurt by the pandemic. Due to the trade diversion effect and the price growth effect, some countries will see an increase in import trade. Comparatively, the pandemic has the most negative impact on global trade, followed by the EU, the US, and China. As the pandemic deepens, the negative impact on trade will increase. The worldwide pandemic has the most significant impact on US trade, with an effect about 1.5 times that of the average world effect.     

Sino-US trade balance from national income perspective and global income chains

ABSTRACT

Trade volume biases trade benefits under the background of economic globalization. Employing the input-output technique, important progress has been made in research on trade in value-added. It is noteworthy that capital globalization is one of the important manifestations of economic globalization. Owing to the ever-increasing transnational flow of capital, mainly by foreign direct investment (FDI), production of exports shows great dependence on foreign capital. A large part of value-added in exports are obtained by foreign factors owners, since foreign-invested enterprises account for a large proportion in host country’s total exports, which is foreign income. The ultimate goal of trade is to boost national income. We propose to study trade benefits and trade balance from national income perspective, and further introduce the concept of global income chains to reveal economic benefits distribution within international specialization.     

中国OFDI影响因素的实证——与出口的比较分析

与大规模的出口和FDI的吸收相比,中国OFDI还处于较低水平。文章基于企业对外出口与直接投资的模型分析,考察东道国生产的固定成本、工资水平、市场规模以及跨国间贸易成本和企业生产率等多种因素对企业对外直接投资的影响;采用中国与29个国家(地区)2005-2011年的面板数据实证检验了这些因素对中国对外直接投资的影响;结果表明中国企业要实现对外特别是对发达国家较大规模的直接投资,还尚待时日,企业应该在提高企业生产效率,推进生产技术进步、提高产品生产结构等方面做出努力,政府需要在构建与东道国良好的投资环境等方面对企业走出去加以支持。     

SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Managing the Indonesian economy in 2015 has proved challenging for the administration of Joko Widodo (Jokowi). In a first quarter plagued by external adversity—especially a sharp drop in exports to China—coupled with internal political paralysis and the delayed disbursement of fiscal spending, the economy recorded its lowest rate of growth since 2009. Observing relatively stable inflation, Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, eased its policy rate in February by 25 basis points, to 7.5%. The bank also adjusted its macroprudential measures to counter declining bank lending. On the fiscal side, the expected stimulus from fuel-subsidy reallocation and aggressive public-capital spending did not arrive. Meanwhile, tax revenue made slow progress towards its ambitious target, which it seems unlikely to attain.

Increases in supply costs made it difficult for the government to align domestic fuel prices more closely to the market. Major commodity exports fell significantly, but some manufactured exports showed hints of an upturn. The depreciation of the rupiah, the global strategies of leading investors, and the introduction of taxexemption policies that have been tested in neighbouring countries may have contributed to this trend. To further broaden the base of export diversification, the priorities should be to reduce business costs and enhance competition rather than enforce mandatory regulations. Jokowi has stressed that his focus on maritime development, part of a broader development strategy, includes reducing logistics costs.

The second quarter of 2015 saw the start of several projects in Jokowi's flagship ‘sea toll’ program to improve maritime connectivity. There is a concern, however, that the predominance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in strategic port operations will continue to limit competition and reduce efficiency. Jokowi's development strategy also focuses on reducing inequality. His government has implemented several distribution and redistribution policies, including the national social-security system initiated by the previous administration. The system suffered financially in its first year from low participation among those in the informal sector.     

分税制改革、城市偏向与中国农业增长

分税制改革因导致中央和地方政府之间财权和事权的不匹配而增加了地方政府的财政压力,从而深刻地改变着地方政府的行为模式。当农业税费全归地方财政收入,农业对经济增长的贡献不断下降而经济增长又成为地方官员政治晋升的主要指标时,面临财政压力的理性地方政府会强化其城市偏向程度,从而损害农业增长。本文运用1978至2009年中国省级面板数据进行的实证分析表明:分税制下的地方财政压力对农业增长特别是粮食增长产生消极影响;非本级财政收入因缓解地方财政压力而有助于农业增长;地方政府对预算外资金的依赖则不利于农业增长。历史和经验证据支持了分税制改革强化地方政府城市偏向的观点。     

信贷紧缩和流动性供给的悖论——全球金融危机之后中国银行业的考察(下)

我国在金融危机之后出现过信贷膨胀,经济过热之后又出现信贷紧缩。信贷紧缩会导致信贷增长下降,社会再生产的资金需求得不到满足。信贷紧缩有管理性成因,也有制度性成因。同时,为了确保经济增长的一定增速,我国的货币政策又要保持一定的流动性。这样,我国就出现了信贷紧缩和流动性供给之间的矛盾。本文讨论了全球金融危机之后,我国出现信贷紧缩的宏观经济运行背景,以及在此背景下货币政策失灵的内在逻辑。     

The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis

The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the Russian embargo from 7 August 2014 on certain agricultural food products from the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia. The effects of this economic sanction are analysed in the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a particular focus on bilateral and total exports, production and welfare. The detailed, based on real trade data, calibration of the model allows for an exact identification of the sectoral shares and prohibitive tariffs aggregated to match the CGE model’s sectoral level of aggregation. In addition, the paper carries on a validation exercise to compare the model’s predictions with real trade data developments. The modelling simulation results show that the impact of the ban on total exports of the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia is limited. Nevertheless at a disaggregate level there are sectors – ‘vegetables and fruits’, ‘other meat’ and ‘dairy products’ – which experience two digit percentage change declines.     

Trends and patterns of the international tropical hardwood trade

In spite of the rapid expansion of tropical hardwood exports since 1960, there was no change in the structure of the trade. For a more equitable distribution of gains from the trade, tropical developing countries need to move away from log exports into domestic processing of wood. The main obstacles to future expansion of tropical hardwood exports are a lack of necessary complementary inputs in the producing countries and the restrictions to market access in the major importing countries. Rationalization of the production and trade of tropical hardwoods could contribute significantly to world welfare.     

Global production sharing and the FDI–trade nexus: New evidence from the Japanese automobile industry

The growing importance of global production sharing makes the nexus between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade in intermediate goods ever more important. This study employs newly-constructed product-level data covering 32 products and 49 host countries over the period 1993–2008 and finds evidence that FDI by upstream firms leads to additional exports of intermediate goods from the home country. The finding of a complementary relationship between FDI and intermediate exports from Japan runs counter to the popular view that the growing overseas activity of multinational enterprises could replace intermediate exports from a home country, thereby depriving the home country of job opportunities.