Lottery mindset,mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the MAX effect regarding lottery mindset in the Chinese stock market. The MAX effect significantly affects stock returns through quintile portfolio and cross-sectional regression analyses. The most-overpriced stock groups, as categorized by mispricing index, show more support for the MAX effect. However, the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) effect continues regardless of consideration for the MAX effect, indicating that the MAX effect is not a source of the IVOL effect. Our results suggest that the MAX effect, which is highly relevant for overpriced stocks, might have information for determining stock price, and appears to be independent from information of the IVOL effect in the Chinese stock market.     

Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle exists at the country level

This paper reexamines the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle using 47 stock market indices from 1995 to 2016. We find that country-specific idiosyncratic volatility is significantly and negatively related to subsequent returns in the international markets, confirming the existence of the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle at the country level. Our results show that the positive relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and country-specific index returns documented by Bali and Cakici, 2010, Hueng and Yau, 2013 is not robust to sample selections and model misspecifications. We show that the country-level idiosyncratic volatility puzzle consistently exists after controlling for different model specifications and market segmentation in various subsamples.     

Tax morale: Framing and fairness

Tax morale has been a focus of academics and policy makers for some time. The measurement of individuals’ tax morale is subjective, and various proxies have been employed in qualitative and quantitative research. The framing of these measures has been considered in some research with respect to equivalency or goal framing, but the underlying implication of emphasis framing in commonly used proxies has yet to be considered. Further, although fairness and financial literacy have been considered determinants of tax morale, no one has yet considered whether financial and tax literacy (FTL) has a moderating effect on fairness and tax morale.This research addresses these gaps in the literature. The findings suggest that questions and scenarios posed by academics and policy makers should consider positive, negative, and emphasis framing, as well as the moderating effect of the respondents’ FTL to measure individuals’ tax morale effectively. The findings also suggest that raising levels of FTL could have a double dividend: not only will improved FTL have a positive impact on tax morale, but it might be magnified through the impact of fairness. These findings hold only when morale is determined by negatively framed scenarios. In particular, the perceived fairness of the tax system enhances tax morale when FTL is high, whereas the perception of fairness has no effect on tax morale for respondents with lower levels of FTL.     

Taxing capital is a good idea: The role of idiosyncratic risk in an OLG model

We investigate an overlapping generations (OLG) model in which agents who live for two periods receive idiosyncratic productivity shocks when they are old. We show that, around zero tax equilibria, we can always construct a combination of a small capital tax and a lump-sum transfer that are Pareto-improving. As Dávila et al. (Econometrica (2012)) show, a capital reduction in one period raises the welfare level of agents who are old in that period, but lowers that of the young agents, because it reduces their wages. We show that the government can compensate for these wage losses by additionally taxing the old agents, such that their welfare gains remain positive. Our result is unchanged when earnings are uncertain at young age.     

Trading and non-trading period realized market volatility: Does it matter for forecasting the volatility of US stocks?

We study the potential merits of using trading and non-trading period market volatilities to model and forecast the stock volatility over the next one to 22 days. We demonstrate the role of overnight volatility information by estimating heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model specifications with and without a trading period market risk factor using ten years of high-frequency data for the 431 constituents of the S&P 500 index. The stocks’ own overnight squared returns perform poorly across stocks and forecast horizons, as well as in the asset allocation exercise. In contrast, we find overwhelming evidence that the market-level volatility, proxied by S&P Mini futures, matters significantly for improving the model fit and volatility forecasting accuracy. The greatest model fit and forecast improvements are found for short-term forecast horizons of up to five trading days, and for the non-trading period market-level volatility. The documented increase in forecast accuracy is found to be associated with the stocks’ sensitivity to the market risk factor. Finally, we show that both the trading and non-trading period market realized volatilities are relevant in an asset allocation context, as they increase the average returns, Sharpe ratios and certainty equivalent returns of a mean–variance investor.     

House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership

Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in house prices. Additional results show that the idiosyncratic risk exceeds the hedging benefits of home ownership. These results imply that for many home owners, owning a house may well add more price risk than it hedges away. These findings are based on a detailed dataset of individual housing transactions in the Netherlands.     

Forecasting volatility with time-varying leverage and volatility of volatility effects

Predicting volatility is of primary importance for business applications in risk management, asset allocation, and the pricing of derivative instruments. This paper proposes a measurement model that considers the possibly time-varying interaction of realized volatility and asset returns according to a bivariate model to capture its major characteristics: (i) the long-term memory of the volatility process, (ii) the heavy-tailedness of the distribution of returns, and (iii) the negative dependence of volatility and daily market returns. We assess the relevance of the effects of “the volatility of volatility” and time-varying “leverage” to the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model, and evaluate the density of forecasts of market volatility. Empirical results show that our specification can outperform the benchmark HAR–GARCH model in terms of both point and density forecasts.     

Excess volatility and the cross-section of stock returns

We document a reliable positive relation between excess volatility and the cross-section of stock returns over the sample period of 1963 to 2010. Significantly positive differentials have been found between the two decile portfolios with the largest and the least excess volatility, under all the situations we have examined. Size, value, and momentum effects cannot explain our empirical results. Likewise they cannot be explained by liquidity, bid-ask bounce, and risk-aversion-related inventory effects.     

Experiencing Change in German Controlling – Management Accounting in a Globalized World

Abstract

In this study, I consider the effects of tax risk from tax volatility on the pricing of syndicated debt. Tax volatility is an interesting feature in that managers have some discretion over the risks they take with their tax strategies, which, however, are often harder to monitor for outsiders than risks related to other business activities. Framing my predictions based on the theoretical model developed by Merton [1974], I hypothesize and find that tax volatility is incrementally informative to other priced risks suggesting that tax risks per se are relevant to lenders. Moreover, I find that the results are stronger when the loan contract does not include performance pricing provisions or other restrictions, such as capital expenditure covenants, that protect lenders. This evidence adds to knowledge about the real effects of tax risk.     

Horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum strategies with respect to various risk metrics: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This paper focuses on the horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum (IMOM) with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Using the A-share individual stocks in the Chinese market from January 1997 to December 2017, we first evaluate the performance of the weekly momentum based on raw returns and idiosyncratic returns, respectively. After that the univariate portfolio analysis is conducted to investigate the return predictability with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Further, we perform a comparative study on the performance of the IMOM portfolios with respect to various risk metrics. At last, we explore the possible explanations to IMOM as well as risk-based IMOM portfolios. We find that 1) there are prevailing contrarian effect and IMOM effect for the whole sample; 2) the negative relations exist between most of the idiosyncratic risk metrics and the cross-sectional stock returns, and better performance is linked to idiosyncratic volatility (IVol) and maximum drawdowns (IMDs); 3) additionally, the IVol-based and IMD-based IMOM portfolios exhibit better explanatory power to the IMOM portfolios with respect to other risk metrics; 4) finally, higher profitability of IMOM as well as IVol-based and IMD-based IMOM portfolios is found to be related to upside market states, high levels of liquidity and high levels of investor sentiment.     

公司避税成本解析——利益相关者理论的应用

利益相关者理论为我们研究企业避税动机及避税成本提供了一个较好的分析框架。企业在进行避税时,不仅要考虑到避税给所有者带来的收益与成本,还要考虑避税给其他利益相关者带来的收益与成本。因此, 在进行避税成本测算时,要考虑到避税给所有利益相关者带来的成本,包括所有权成本、监管成本、政治成本、债务契约成本等。有些企业在权衡利弊后选择放弃避税,这说明避税的成本大于或等于可能的避税额,这给避税成本的测定提供了一种方法。     

Overnight stock returns and realized volatility

The information flow in modern financial markets is continuous, but major stock exchanges are open for trading for only a limited number of hours. No consensus has yet emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating and forecasting realized volatility in markets where trading does not take place 24 hours a day. Based on a recently introduced formal testing procedure, we find that for the S&P 500 index, a realized volatility estimator that optimally incorporates overnight information is more accurate in-sample. In contrast, estimators that do not incorporate overnight information are more accurate for individual stocks. We also show that accounting for overnight returns may affect the conclusions drawn in an out-of-sample horserace of forecasting models. Finally, there is considerably less variation in the selection of the best out-of-sample forecasting model when only the most accurate in-sample RV estimators are considered.     

Speaking to Theorists and Searching for Facts: Tax Morale and Tax Compliance in Experiments

A significant body of research has been accumulated concerning tax morale and tax compliance. This paper takes a stroll through the experimental findings, focussing on personal income. After briefly discussing the traditional topic of deterrence the main focus is on the social and institutional factors which until now have received only limited attention.     

浅析企业税务筹划中的风险及其防范

税务筹划有助于降低企业税收负担,实现企业价值最大化,受各种因素的影响,存在税务筹划失败的风险,本文试就这些风险进行了分析,并探讨了风险防控措施。     

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.     

Modeling common volatility characteristics and dynamic risk premia in European equity markets

The paper applies a Factor-GARCH model to evaluate the impact of the market portfolio, as a single common dynamic risk factor, on conditional volatility and risk premia for the returns on size-based equity portfolios of three major European markets; France, Germany and the United Kingdom. The results show that for the size-based portfolios the factor loading for the dynamic market factor is significant and positive but the association between the risk premia and the conditional market volatility is weak. However, the dynamic market factor is shown to explain common characteristics in the conditional variance such as asymmetry and persistence. This finding is consistent across markets and portfolio sizes.     

企业税收筹划面临的风险与防范对策

随着社会经济的发展,现代企业的生存环境越来越复杂。在企业当中,企业税收筹划工作非常重要。在企业财务管理工作当中,税务筹划不仅仅能够提升企业的竞争力,也能够保障企业的顺利发展。但是在目前企业的税务筹划方面发展并不顺利,给企业的发展和经营造成了很大影响,税务筹划工作并不顺利,企业就需要承担一定的风险。要想企业实现快速发展达到预期的税收效益,就需要加强防范,积极筹划做好税收管理。     

个税起征点改革对纳税能力的影响：基于居民收入分布的估算

本文分析了个税起征点变动对纳税能力的影响机理。本文基于2005~2012年我国居民收入分组数据,采用构建的收入分布纳税能力测算积分模型和PLS路径模型,估算了我国居民个人所得税纳税能力和个税起征点改革对纳税能力的影响效应。研究发现,2005年以来我国居民平均收入水平有较大的提高,收入分布呈厚尾分布特征,其标准差呈弱平的倒“U”形变化趋势。2006年和2008年两次个税起征点的调整并没有改变纳税能力的增长态势,却影响着税务部门的征缴行为,税收努力指数的波动表明,税制改革与征纳税人预期行为的强关联关系,2011年的个税起征点改革对纳税能力有较大影响;PLS路径模型估计显示,居民收入的增长对纳税能力影响最大,个税起征点改革则是通过增加居民收入、影响征缴行为来间接地影响纳税能力。     

人民币汇率波动对NFDI波动的影响及其检验

本文通过对我国NFDI资本流动性及其波动性的计算,检验了人民币/美元汇率波动对NFDI波动性的关系。通过实证分析表明,人民币汇率的波动将导致NFDI资本流动的明显不稳定。在理论研究的基础上,引申出其政策含义：在国际资本流动不断加大的今天,我们必须维护人民币/美元汇率的稳定,这样对于有效引导NFDI的资本流动和维护金融稳定都具有重要的意义。