对上证指数波动性的实证分析

股票价格频繁波动是股票市场中最明显的特征之一。ARCH类模型可以成功的预测金融资产收益的方差。通过对我国股价指数的统计描述,表明我国金融资产收益率存在自回归条件异方差,并表现出非正态性。并且应用GARCH、TARCH、EGARCH模型理论,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性。     

Time-varying asymmetric volatility spillover between global markets and China’s A,B and H-shares using EGARCH and DCC-EGARCH models

This paper investigates the volatility spillover and dynamic conditional correlation between three types of China’s shares including A, B and H-shares with 12 major emerging and developed markets from 2002 to 2017 using EGARCH and multivariate DCC-EGARCH models. Both models found that Chinese equities are more related with their neighbouring countries such as Singapore, Japan, Australia and ASEAN-5 than with US, Germany and UK. The EGARCH model, with an auxiliary term added to capture the volatility spillover, found no volatility spillover between A-share markets and other advanced and emerging markets during the GFC and extended-crisis periods while this behaviour is not observed for B-share and H-share markets. However, the multivariate DCC model found strong evidence of contagion effect in both return correlations and volatility spillover for all China’s markets. In addition, both models found increased regional and global integration in A-share and B-share markets but not the H-share market. Finally, the results from both models provide clear evidence of distinct behaviours associated with return and volatility spillover in these three share types, suggesting foreign investors should consider the heterogeneity in volatility spillover and return correlations of these Chinese share types when forming investment strategies.     

What drives the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market?

This paper examines the dynamics of the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market by adopting a multivariate decomposition approach to measure the individual contributions of various driving forces of the premium (such as firm size, idiosyncratic volatility, and market liquidity betas). By employing a wide range of liquidity measures, we show that liquidity premium is generally significant in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, this premium is increasing in recent years starting from 2011; this observation is different from the United States market, in which the premium has declined over the years. Moreover, the multivariate decomposition approach highlights several asset pricing factors as the main driving forces of the premium. Based on the Amihud liquidity measure, the decomposition approach indicates that the size factor contributes 45–65% to the liquidity premium. However, the measure based on turnover suggests that idiosyncratic volatility accounts for at least 60% of the liquidity premium. In contrast, the global market liquidity beta does not significantly contribute to the premium. However, there is some evidence that the local market liquidity beta has become more significant in its impact on the premium during the period from 2011 to 2015. Our results imply that the findings on the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market could be sensitive to the liquidity measure used and period of analysis.     

中国股市财富效应静态和动态实证分析

本文利用2002—2008年的月度数据,利用协整分析、误差修正模型等现代计量经济方法和状态空间模型研究了中国股市财富效应问题。研究结果认为:从长期均衡关系看,我国股市财富效应是显著存在;从短期动态关系看,我国股市财富波动对全社会消费支出波动具有负影响但不显著;从股市财富的边际消费倾向的动态过程看,我国股市财富效应始终存在,但挤出效应同样显著。     

基于数据挖掘技术的股票市场预测分析实例研究

本文主要研究数据挖掘技术在股票市场价格预测中的应用,重点采用数据挖掘分类和聚类算法对大盘走势和个股走势进行分析研究,采用实体数据进行挖掘分析,总结得出有益于投资者的结论。     

我国上市公司“退市难”的制度根源与现实对策

上市公司\"退市难\"是我国股市的特有现象,不仅产生了广泛的负面影响,而且长期未能得到解决。本文从制度经济学视角剖析\"退市难\"的深层次原因,证明\"退市难\"符合我国经济制度的一般演化逻辑;退市制度的供需结构以及制度本身的关联性特征决定了\"退市难\"难以被轻易解决。在当前市场条件下,单兵突进式的退市制度改革难以取得理想效果且面临巨大阻力。只有采取完善多层次股票市场与退市制度改革相结合的\"分层之路\",为上市公司创造梯度退市和转板机会,才是解决\"退市难\"问题的现实路径。     

关于我国推行股票指数期货的可行性分析

随着金融体制改革的不断深入,资本市场法律法规体系的建立健全和证监会监管能力的提高熏我国已具备了一定的推出新的金融衍生产品的市场条件,文章结合股指期货的功能和作用与我国股票市场的实际情况,分析了目前在我国开展股指期货交易的可行性。     

股票价值分布曲线及其应用

基于股票价值的不确定性,我们可以建立股票价值的分布曲线。通过股票价值分布曲线,不仅可以明晰股票价格的决定机制,推导出股票市场的供给、需求曲线,而且还可以解释许多股票市场现象和问题,如:小盘高价大盘低价现象、价格操纵等问题。     

中国股市资金流向优化研究——基于量化指标

在传统资金流向统计方法的基础上引入趋势移动平均价格指标,优点在于考虑到不参与交易的股票对未来股票价格及资金流量的影响,可以弥补传统股票资金流向统计方法存在的缺陷。选取上证50及创业板成分股为研究对象进行验证,实证结果较好地证明了优化资金流向统计方法具有科学性和合理性。     

Has recent financial crisis changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed stock markets?

The paper finds recent financial crisis has changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed U.S. and Europe stock markets. 70% of BRICS stock markets⿿ conditional correlation series demonstrate an upward long-run trend with the developed stock markets. Our results provide convincing evidence that the reducing diversification benefits are a long-run and world-wide phenomenon, especially after recent financial crisis.     

服装网络消费行为市场调查与分析

文中以调查分析研究为主,借鉴现有的消费者行为理论、网络消费理论,对服装网络消费行为进行问卷调查,概括总结出我国目前服装网络消费行为的基本特征,以及其在发展过程中存在的主要问题,最后针对问题提出相应的对策。     

Does investor sentiment affect fund crashes? Evidence from Chinese open-end funds

This paper aims to detect the impact of investor sentiment on the open-end fund crashes, drawing on the open-end stock funds and partial stock funds of China for the 2009–2019 period. The results show that the rise of investor sentiment will significantly increase the risk of the open-end fund crashes, which remains valid after robustness tests. Further researches indicate that the market timing and stock selection abilities of fund managers weaken the positive impact of investor sentiment on the open-end fund crashes, and the market illiquidity promotes the positive impact of investor sentiment on the open-end fund crashes.