Measuring imported case risk of COVID-19 from inbound international flights --- A case study on China

With COVID-19 spreading around the world, many countries are exposed to the imported case risk from inbound international flights. Several governments issued restrictions on inbound flights to mitigate such risk. But with the pandemic controlled in many countries, some decide to reopen the economy by relaxing the international air travel bans. As the virus has still been prevailing in many regions, this relaxation raises the alarm to import overseas cases and results in the revival of local pandemic. This study proposes a risk index to measure one country's imported case risk from inbound international flights. The index combines both daily dynamic international air connectivity data and the updated global COVID-19 data. It can measure the risk at the country, province and even specific route level. The proposed index was applied to China, which is the first country to experience and control COVID-19 pandemic while later becoming exposed to high imported case risk after the epidemic centers switched to Europe and the US afterward. The calculated risk indexes for each Chinese province or region show both spatial and temporal patterns from January to April 2020. It is found that China's strict restriction on inbound flights since March 26 was very effective to cut the imported case risk by half than doing nothing. But the overall index level kept rising because of the deteriorating pandemic conditions around the world. Hong Kong and Taiwan are the regions facing the highest imported case risk due to their superior international air connectivity and looser restriction on inbound flights. Shandong Province had the highest risk in February and early March due to its well-developed air connectivity with South Korea and Japan when the pandemic peaked in these two countries. Since mid-March, the imported case risk from Europe and the US dramatically increased. Last, we discuss policy implications for the relevant stakeholders to use our index to dynamically adjust the international air travel restrictions. This risk index can also be applied to other contexts and countries to relax restrictions on particular low-risk routes while still restricting the high-risk ones. This would balance the essential air travels need and the requirement to minimize the imported case risk.     

Real option analysis of aircraft acquisition: A case study

This paper demonstrates that aircraft acquisition by airlines may contain a portfolio of real options (flexible strategies) embedded in the investment's life cycle, and that if airlines rely solely on the static NPV method, they are likely to underestimate the true investment value. Two real options are investigated: i) the “shutdown-restart” option (a carrier may shutdown a plane if revenues are less than costs, but restarts it if revenues are more than costs), and ii) the option to defer aircraft delivery. We quantify the values of these options in a case study of a major U.S. airline. The economic insight could help explain observed capital expenditures of airlines, and serve as a rule of thumb in evaluating capital budgeting decisions. A compound option (consisting of both the shutdown-restart and defer options) is also analyzed.     

The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market

China was the first airline market in the world to be hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been gradually recovering as the pandemic is largely contained domestically. However, with the global pandemic spread and great uncertainty, there has been a remarkable change in airline passengers’ travel behavior. This paper collected air passenger-level data from TravelSky in the Chinese market. In addition to the analyses on aggregate passenger flow patterns, this paper explores changes in airline passenger travel behavior, such as ticket booking time, age distribution of passengers, refunds and ticket changes, and passenger arrival time at airports. This is one of the first studies to focus on micro-level changes in airline passenger travel behavior by using objective passenger-level data. The pandemic-induced psychological changes in air travelers are explored, providing useful managerial and policymaking implications for the normalization of the pandemic and the recovery of the airline market in the post-pandemic era.     

Frequency and aircraft size dynamics in a concentrated growth market: The case of the Chinese domestic market

Despite the explosive growth of the Chinese aviation sector and the major industry reforms undertaken in recent decades, the Chinese domestic market remains highly concentrated with a significant element of regulation and governmental control in areas such as market entry and airline fleet planning. In this study, we investigate the frequency strategies and aircraft choices of airlines operating in this concentrated growth market. Our empirical investigation suggests that airlines mainly accommodate rapid traffic growth by flying more frequently, although increased aircraft size also contributes to market expansion. We also find a negative relationship between market concentration and flight frequency. Due to the more balanced market structure resulting from mergers among leading airlines since 2002, there has been a moderate reduction in market concentration at route level, contributing to a 3.7% increase in traffic volume from 2002 to 2008. The results of our study suggest that Chinese travelers have yet to fully enjoy the benefits of market liberalization, and airports should prioritize increasing capacity related to aircraft movements over the accommodation of larger aircraft.     

The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach

This study examines the short-term impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on 52 listed airline companies around the world by using event study methodology. The results demonstrate that airline stock returns decline more significantly than the market returns after three major COVID-19 announcements were made. Overall, investors react differently during the three selected events. The strongest overreaction is noted in the post-event period of the World Health Organization's and President Trump's official announcements. Moreover, the findings confirm that traders in Western countries are more responsive to recent information than the rest of the world. The findings call for immediate policy designs in order to alleviate the impact of the pandemic in the airline industry around the globe.     

Risks,resilience, and pathways to sustainable aviation: A COVID-19 perspective

This paper discusses the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to reconsider the foundations of the global aviation system. There is much evidence that air transport creates opportunities as well as risks. While the former accrue to businesses and individuals, risks are imposed on society. Pandemics, in which aviation has a role as a vector of pathogen distribution, as well as the sector's contribution to climate change are examples of long-standing negative externalities that continue to be ignored in assessments of aviation's economic performance and societal importance. As commercial aviation has shown limited economic resilience throughout its history, this short paper questions whether a return to business-as-usual, supported by very significant State aid payments, is desirable. The volume growth model championed by industry and aviation proponents may have to be replaced with an alternative model of a slimmed air transport system that is economically less vulnerable and accounting for its environmental impacts.     

Hub airport slot Re-allocation and subsidy policy to speed up air traffic recovery amid COVID-19 pandemic --- case on the Chinese airline market

With international air travels largely banned around the world amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, many gateway and hub airports have more ideal slots available for reallocation. Airport traffic recovery replaces airport congestion to become the primary challenge of major airports around the world. With the pandemic well controlled domestically in China, the government liberalizes the hub airport slots for those previously forbidden services to the small/regional airports. This paper thus analytically examines the effect of this slot liberalization. The government subsidy to the small airports has also been considered. It is found that the slot liberalization can speed up airport traffic recovery for both hub and small airports. The hub airport slot liberalization leads to a lower level of minimum subsidy to sustain the survival of the small airports. Given any fixed level of subsidy to the small airport, both the total airport traffic and social welfare would improve with the slot liberalization at the hub airport. When the government can adjust the level of subsidy after liberalizing the hub airport slots, the subsidy could be excessive, if the government emphasizes too much on airport traffic recovery. This would, however, harm the overall social welfare.     

Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19

This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels.     

A causal factors analysis of aircraft incidents due to radar limitations: The Norway case study

Provision of seamless, safe and effective surveillance services to airspace users requires high performance surveillance sensor coverage in the whole airspace. Limitations in the surveillance system will lead to an inability to provide the required surveillance services to the users. This may result in aircraft incident and accident occurrences. In this paper a case study is developed for the Norwegian airspace, based on five years of safety reports, to identify causal factors of incidents/accidents due to radar system limitations. This is conducted with a safety data analysis from Avinor – Norway's Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) and structured communication with Surveillance/ATM safety experts from Avinor. The case study shows that, 76 out of 124 occurrences within the five years in the Norwegian airspace/airport were related to the surveillance function, and 34 out of the 76 occurrences were due to limitations in the radar systems. The analysis identified that the highest contributing causal factors of the occurrences due to radar system limitations were limited surveillance coverage, followed by the lack of situational awareness for flight crew/controllers and unsynchronised surveillance information between flight crew and controllers.     

Municipal solid waste management and greenhouse gas emissions at international airports: A case study of Astana International Airport

The steady expansion of the city of Astana and the increase of airport capacity is leading to an increase in municipal solid waste generation. The purpose of this study was to perform compositional analysis of the municipal solid waste produced at the Astana International Airport and evaluate different waste management scenarios in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Recyclable and combustible fractions were found to be the major fractions (over 50%) of the total municipal solid waste generated in the Astana International Airport. Four base greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were proposed in this study, namely scenario-1 describing the current municipal solid waste management case, scenario-2 with integration of 29% recycling and 71% of municipal solid waste landfilling, scenario-3 for 100% of airport municipal solid waste being incinerated and scenario-4 for recycling 29% and the remaining waste being processed for energy recovery purposes. The proposed scenario 2 demonstrated significantly reduced net greenhouse gas emissions (t CO₂ eq/year) over the existing scenario 1, while scenarios 3 and 4 showed negative net greenhouse gas emissions. The experimental data provided and the scenarios discussed in this work are useful tools for decision makers for environmental waste management at airports.     

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on air travel in the medium and long term using neural network and Monte Carlo simulation

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the airline industry. Air travel in the United States declined in 2020 with significantly lower domestic and international flights. The dynamic change and uncertainty in the trend of COVID-19 have made it difficult to predict future air travel. This paper aims at developing and testing neural network models that predict domestic and international air travel in the medium and long term based on residents' daily trips by distance, economic condition, COVID-19 severity, and travel restrictions. Data in the United States from various sources were used to train and validate the neural network models, and Monte Carlo simulations were constructed to predict air travel under uncertainty of the pandemic and economic growth. The results show that weekly economic index (WEI) is the most important predictor for air travel. Additionally, daily trips by distance play a more important role in the prediction of domestic air travel than the international one, while travel restrictions seem to have an impact on both. Sensitivity analysis results for four different scenarios indicate that air travel in the future is more sensitive to the change in WEI than the changes in COVID-19 variables. Additionally, even in the best-case scenario, when the pandemic is over and the economy is back to normal, it still takes several years for air travel to return to normal, as before the pandemic. The findings have significant contributions to the literature in COVID-19's impact on air transportation and air travel prediction.     

Tourist choice of sustainable hot springs tourism under post-COVID-19 pandemic period: A case in Colorado

Hot springs tourism has increasingly attracted tourists who pursue wellness and harmony with the natural environment. This paper investigates how four sustainability-related attributes influence tourist choice and estimates their marginal willingness to pay for Colorado hot springs tourism under the post-COVID-19 pandemic period. A fractional factorial choice experiment design and conditional logit model were used to analyze the choice data of 303 retained respondents collected from the online surveys. The results show the importance of sustainability-related attributes on tourist choice and suggest the hot springs tourism sector improves destination sustainability to maintain market competitiveness under the post-COVID-19 pandemic period.     

The effect of Covid-19 depression on spirituality and psychological well-being through the perceived environmental restorativeness of a pilgrimage route: Focusing on pilgrims on Seoul Catholic Pilgrimage Route

During the COVID-19 pandemic, policies adopted by various countries to prevent the spread of the disease exacerbated social isolation among people, and their prolonged implementation has had a negative effect on people's mental health, leading to increased anxiety, stress, and depression. Group religious activities were prohibited, so believers continued their faith practices through individual pilgrimages. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between depression caused by COVID-19 and its impact on spirituality and psychological well-being, through the perceived restorative environment of the Seoul Catholic Pilgrimage Route. The results confirmed that COVID-19 depression had a negative effect on perceived environmental restorativeness and psychological well-being but perceived environmental restorativeness had a positive effect on Spirituality, and Spirituality had a positive effect on psychological well-being. These results imply that pilgrims who have experienced depression due to the pandemic can improve their spirituality and psychological well-being through nature-based pilgrimages.     

Effects of non-aeronautical activities at airports on the public transport access system: A case study of Zurich Airport

Many planning authorities and airports study measures to increase public transport use for airport ground access and egress. At the same time, an increase in real estate development at and around airports is occurring, both due to airports seeking new revenue possibilities and other developers attempting to profit from high value locations. This paper considers non-aeronautical activities at large airports, largely commercial centres and transit hubs, as land uses that have the potential to improve the situation for operating public transport services. In order to assess potential benefits and disadvantages, four research questions are considered: (1) Can the additional travel volume reach levels at which it has a significant impact? (2) To what extent do non-aeronautical activities influence the public transport access system? (3) Is the resulting demand distribution better or worse regarding peaking behaviour? (4) Is there a potential for the resulting overall demand to bring about capacity shortages?A case study is conducted at the airport of Zurich, Switzerland, which finds that non-aeronautical activities in the direct airport vicinity have led to a situation where the operation of public transport services is much more viable due to overall higher passenger numbers and a more even distribution throughout the day. It is concluded that locating non-aeronautical activities at airports can, in addition to providing commercial benefits to developers, lead to a situation where improved public transport services become feasible.     

Investigating the impacts of energy consumption,real GDP,tourism and trade on CO2 emissions by accounting for cross-sectional dependence: A panel study of OECD countries

The objective of this study is to analyse the long-run dynamic relationship of carbon dioxide emissions, real gross domestic product (GDP), the square of real GDP, energy consumption, trade and tourism under an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries. Since we find the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel time-series data, we apply second-generation unit root tests, cointegration test and causality test which can deal with cross-sectional dependence problems. The cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and the cross-sectionally augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) unit root tests indicate that the analysed variables become stationary at their first differences. The Lagrange multiplier bootstrap panel cointegration test shows the existence of a long-run relationship between the analysed variables. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique indicates that energy consumption and tourism contribute to the levels of gas emissions, while increases in trade lead to environmental improvements. In addition, the EKC hypothesis cannot be supported as the sign of coefficients on GDP and GDP² is negative and positive, respectively. Moreover, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests exploit a variety of causal relationship between the analysed variables. The OECD countries are suggested to invest in improving energy efficiency, regulate necessary environmental protection policies for tourism sector in specific and promote trading activities through several types of encouragement act.     

The influence of service performance and destination resources on consumer behaviour: a case study of mainland Chinese tourists to Kinmen

This paper draws upon the responses of 603 mainland Chinese tourists in Kinmen and attempts to understand their consumer behavior on the aspects of intentions, preferences, decision‐making process, satisfaction, and willingness to revisit. Variables such as service performance and destination resources that affect visitor's satisfaction are also tested. The findings reflect a ‘myth of mysteriousness’ of mainland Chinese visitors to the destination and suggest that it is essential for the market segmentation to participate in the tourism planning of Kinmen to develop an integrated policy for promotion and marketing, in order to enhance consumers' interest. In addition, this research has implications for tourism planning in Kinmen and provides references for other destinations striving for tourists from mainland China. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.