Impact of population planning on the size distribution of income: a theoretical and methodological framework

Widespread population problems exist in developing countries (LDCs). It is believed that excessive population growth may have a negative effect on improvement in the standard of living and eventually on the country's production capabilities (GNP). In an attempt to stimulate production, LDCs have developed family planning programmes to decrease the rate of population growth. However, many of the family planning programmes have failed in their aims of substantially reducing the rates. A few studies conducted in Pakistan have revealed the widespread use of family planning in urbanized areas. This study supports the claim that urbanization and the practice of family planning are positively related - variables such as education and religion figure prominently in the study. Several studies have been developed to examine the relationship between income distribution and various demographic aspects. These are broken down into: Type 1 studies, which deal with the effect that income has on socioeconomic and demographic and geographic factors; Type 2 studies, which deal with the theory that income has an effect on fertility; and Type 3 studies, which deal with interdependence between income and fertility variables. Income does have an effect on decisions to use contraception, despite government sponsored programmes. Recommendations made for improving the work of government sponsored programmes include: increasing educational opportunities for men and women in both urban and rural areas; providing job opportunities for women in non-agricultural areas; redistributing income from rich to poor; and the improvement of health and nutritional facilities.     

Parental Education and Child Health: Evidence from China*

This paper examines the effect of parental, household and community character‐istics on the health of children in China. We find that birth order, death of elder siblings, use of prenatal care and alcohol consumption by the mother when pregnant have statistically significant effects on the health of children. Although parental education does not have a significant direct effect on child health, it does affect mothers’ behavior during pregnancy and inflfluences the use of health inputs, indirectly impacting the health of children. The research findings have important implications for both family planning programs and broader social policies in China.     

Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth

This study aims to examine how each cohort’s family formation is affected by labor market conditions experienced in youth in Japan. Although the deterioration in youth employment opportunities has often been blamed for Japan’s declining fertility rate, the effect of slack labor market conditions on fertility is theoretically unclear. We estimate the effects of regional labor market conditions at entry to the labor market and contemporaneous conditions on fertility, controlling for nation-wide year effects and prefecture fixed effects, and find the following. First, high school-educated women who experienced a recession while entering the labor market are less likely to have children. In contrast, a recession rather increases fertility among college-educated women. When summed up, the aggregate impact of labor market conditions experienced in youth on fertility is weak. Second, the unemployment rate at entry to the labor market is positively correlated with the probability of having two or more children conditionally on having at least one child. Third, the contemporaneous unemployment rate is negatively correlated with marriage of women in the local labor market, although the correlation is weak and concentrated on the less educated group.     

Elderly long-term care policy and sandwich caregivers’ time allocation between child-rearing and market labor

Using an overlapping generations model, we present analyses of public long-term care provision effects on fertility and time allocation decisions of sandwich caregivers, those caring for young children and old parents simultaneously. If the public long-term care level runs short of the necessary level, then working children must compensate for the difference by spending their time. Reportedly, about a third of university students’ parents are sandwich caregivers in Japan, although Japan has a Long-Term Care Insurance system, which is a mandatory system with universal coverage. With a rapidly aging population, demand for long-term care is predicted to increase, thereby affecting family time allocation, e.g., fertility decisions, in Japan. Results show that if public long-term care production is costly relative to family care provision, then increases in public care provision lower the fertility rate. If labor productivity in the public long-term care sector improves, then it increases the fertility rate by freeing caregivers’ time from family care provision. It will also increase social welfare. The effects on labor employment in the goods production sector are generally ambiguous because the increased public care provision requires more labor.     

Family Matters: Demographic Change and Social Spending in Indonesia

Economic growth of only 4.9% in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2016 cast doubt on the previous official target of 5.2%–5.6%. Given the lacklustre internal demand and dampening global outlook, whether the government can generate faster growth in the remaining months will depend on the extent to which its programs champion productive spending. The government’s response to stalling growth has focused on increasing infrastructure and social spending. In the face of budgetary constraints to financing such expenditures, initiatives to raise revenue and to improve targeting on social spending are taking place. On the revenue front, two initiatives are worth noting: the issuance of Law 11/2016 on Tax Amnesty and the amendment of Law 16/2009 on General Provisions and Tax Procedures. To improve the targeting of social spending, the National Team for the Acceleration of Poverty Reduction (TNP2 K) launched an updated Unified Database, which contains information on 24 million of Indonesia’s poorest households. Meanwhile, around 167 million Indonesians have registered for the National Health Insurance scheme. Yet any consolidation of social protection and insurance programs in Indonesia necessitates an understanding of long-run trends in population dynamics. In particular, understanding the trends and drivers of family change is pivotal to mapping key issues and challenges in President Joko Widodo’s continued push towards welfare reform. We outline key features of contemporary family change in Indonesia: a modest decline in average household size, an uncertain trend in age at first marriage, fertility rates that hover just above replacement level, an increasing tendency for women to ‘marry down’ in education, more interethnic marriages, and an upturn in divorce since around 2006. We note the implications of family change on future trends in population and the workforce, and their associated longer-term challenges for current social protection initiatives.     

Integration of an Essential Services Package (ESP) in Child and Reproductive Health and Family Planning with a Micro-credit Program for Poor Women: Experience from a Pilot Project in Rural Bangladesh

In early 1992, a two-phased pilot project, initially integrating a micro-credit program for poor women with a family planning and expanded program of immunization (EPI) (in the first phase) and subsequently and incrementally with an essential services package (ESP) in reproductive and maternal and child health (in the second phase), was initiated in rural Bangladesh. Data on the project show that there has been a significant increase in contraceptive use and a decline in fertility since the initiation of the first phase of the project. There also has been an increase in the dissemination of information on, and utilization of, ESP medical technologies in the intervention community at large.     

House price,fertility rates and reproductive intentions

This paper uses national representative data collected through population census and household surveys to estimate the effect of house price on women's childbearing behaviors and intentions. It shows that higher house price significantly lowers women's reproductive probability and that women aged 30 and under, who have been married for 3–5 years, and those with no children are more sensitive to such effect. A significantly negative fertility response to house price is observed among renter families and those with self-built houses, but the response is insignificant for home-owning families. Subsample analysis by child gender reveals that house price mainly affects the probability of male births. Furthermore, women in regions with higher house prices are more willing to have daughters whereas those owning more houses tend to have sons.     

Bargaining Power within Couples and Health Care Provider Choice in Tanzania

This paper examines the pattern of health care provider choice in relation to couples’ bargaining power, in a country where most communities are basically patriarchal, with limited legal protection for women. We use the Tanzanian Demographic and Health Survey (2010) and a nested multinomial logit model to distinguish between public and private facility choice. Evidence suggests that cooperation in decision‐making, female discretion over household resources and low domestic violence increase the probability of childbirth in a health facility. We find that cooperation in household decision‐making and low incidence of domestic violence significantly increase the probability of private facility use. The effects of these social and economic dimensions of the distribution of power between spouses on health care use remain significant after controlling for household resource endowment. A policy option that encourages cooperation between couples, reduces domestic violence and/or ensures female empowerment is more likely to enhance the use of reproductive health services.     

Does family planning help the employment of women? The case of India

This paper gives some insight into the existence of a positive effect of family planning programmes on women's employment in developing countries. We study married women aged 15–49 living throughout India using a sample drawn from the National Health Family Survey (NFHS-2) for 1998–1999. We focus on a programme of doorstep services delivered by health or family planning (FP) workers who are sent to visit women in their assigned areas. Results derived from the estimation of fixed effect linear probability and conditional logit models show a positive and significant correlation of the share of women living in a local area (village, town or city) that has been visited by FP workers with the probability of women's employment. A multinomial analysis also shows that the largest positive effect of FP in rural India is to be found on paid work, as opposed to unpaid work, suggesting a potential empowering feedback of demographic measures through labour earnings.     

Community health service centers in China, not always trusted by the populations they serve?

Based on the idea that healthcare needs to be managed by individuals and that basic health services should be provided by the community, this paper examines the factors that impact urban outpatients' preferences for particular community health service centers (CHSCs) and hospitals. Rational consumption of healthcare is influenced by a patient's beliefs, beyond simple demographics and social structure. Ignorance of basic health issues leads to non-rational patient behavior, which also explains the confusion in Chinese health reform regarding people's mistrust of CHSCs. Health education in the form of self-managed care may increase personal health knowledge and encourage individuals to make use of the basic health services that are supplied by CHSCs.     

Patrilineality,fertility, and women's income: Evidence from family lineage in China

This study investigates how traditional patrilineal family institution influences women's income through fertility behavior by offering evidence from family lineage (zongzu) in China. We hypothesize that family with strong lineage—proxied by owning genealogy—has a negative effect on women's income through the son-targeting fertility behavior. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, this study confirms the hypothesis. Relative to the women whose first child is a son, the women marring into families owning genealogy indeed have more children and lower income, if their first child is a daughter. In contrast, such finding does not hold for the male sample. Preliminary evidence suggests that shorter work time can explain the findings.     

隔代照料孙子女对中老年人心理健康的影响研究

使用 2013 年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据，以抑郁情况与生活满意度作为 心理健康的代理指标，探讨隔代照料孙子女对中老年人心理健康的影响，为克服由于自我选择所 产生的内生性问题，进一步运用倾向得分匹配法分析隔代照料孙子女对中老年人心理健康的影响。 研究结果表明，我国 51.7% 的中老年人提供隔代照料;提供隔代照料对中老年人心理健康有显著 的改善作用;隔代照料孙子女对男性、农业户口、未达到退休年龄中老年人影响更为显著;此外， 对影响路径的分析表明，提供隔代照料会通过显著增加人们参加社交活动的可能性以及参加社交 活动的频率来改善心理健康。     

Family size,birth order and educational attainment: Evidence from China

Using Chinese Household Income Project survey data from 2013, this paper investigates the effects of family size and birth order on children's educational attainment. The endogeneity of family size is an important identification issue in the test of the quantity-quality tradeoff. We use variations in a mother's exposure to various phases of China's family planning policies by Hukou type, ethnicity and regional differences in fine rates as instruments to identify the causal effects of family size. We find that family size has a negative effect on children's education. Using family fixed effects model, we find a positive birth order effect. In addition, both the family size and birth order effects are more pronounced for families where first-born children are females than those where the first-borns are males. Birth order effect is more evident in financially constrained families.     

The effects of female HIV/AIDS status on fertility and child health in Cambodia

Although Cambodia has been on a higher growth track, it still faces a great challenge in public health. Public health is closely related to the standard of living of the people and is indispensable for further economic development. This paper considers a serious public health problem, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cambodia. Specifically, it presents two testable hypotheses derived from a simple model and then empirically demonstrates these hypotheses, using data of more than 8000 women from the 2005 Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). One hypothesis is the negative effect of female HIV on fertility, and the other is the positive effect of maternal HIV on child health status. Our estimation results are consistent with these hypotheses, implying that women infected with HIV tend to bear fewer children and their children are in better health.     

An innovation to improve health outcomes in Amajuba district,KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Systems’ thinking places high value on understanding the context. This study focused on the collection of disaggregated data in order to understand the context, to facilitate improvement of health outcomes. The aim of this article was to assess the implementation of municipal ward-based health data collection (disaggregated data) and health care workers’ perceptions of this data collection process. This cross-sectional study used mixed methods in Amajuba district. The participants were professional nurses at the Primary Health Care level. Of the 131 respondents, 123 (93.9%) collected municipal ward-based health data, and found it useful. Opportunities for improving data collection were identified. Disaggregation of the data at ward level contributes to a better understanding of the target population’s health, assists planning for health needs and enables provision of targeted interventions in order to improve health outcomes, to prevent financial regression and waste of health resources.     

Internet use and fertility behavior among reproductive-age women in China

Using longitudinal data from the 2014–2018 China Family Panel Studies, we investigate the impact of internet use (IU) on fertility among reproductive-age women. We find that IU reduces the number of children born, with more pronounced effects among those with a moderate level of education, those aged 16–19, rural residents, and those who are married. These results are robust to alternative IU measures and a series of estimation approaches that control for endogeneity. IU participation affects the number of children born through decreased marital satisfaction, changed attitudes toward traditional gender roles, a reduction in the importance placed on ancestral lines, deteriorated health and reduced fertility preferences.     

Fertility decline and the heights of children in Britain, 1886–1938

In this paper we argue that the fertility decline that began around 1880 had substantial positive effects on the health of children, as the quality–quantity trade-off would suggest. We use microdata from a unique survey from 1930s Britain to analyse the relationship at the household level between the standardised heights of children and the number of children in the family. Our results suggest that heights are influenced positively by family income per capita and negatively by the number of children or the degree of crowding in the household. The evidence suggests that family size affected the health of children through its influence on both nutrition and disease. Applying our results to long-term trends, we find that rising household income and falling family size contributed significantly to improving child health between 1886 and 1938. Between 1906 and 1938 these variables account for 40% of the increase in heights, and much of this effect is due to falling family size. We conclude that the fertility decline is a neglected source of the rapid improvement in health in the first half of the twentieth century.     

Modeling the reproductive behavior of the population of a region

The paper analyses the state of one of the most important demographic processes, fertility, and in the first place, the parameter forming its level—the reproductive behavior of the population. The Vologda oblast population’s socio-psychological and childbearing and family size attitudes are considered. Modern mathematical methods are applied in a study of change in the fertility model and the emerging new value system of the population of the region.     

The Timing of the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa

If demographic and health surveys have underlined declining fertility trends in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, little is known on the precise timing and the speed of the fertility transition in the continent. This study attempts to fill this gap, by using an innovative approach to the analysis of DHS data and other relevant surveys. The method utilizes fine tuning of fertility trends year by year, for urban and rural areas separately. The paper starts by a case study of the fertility transition in Kenya. The same method is later applied to more than 20 countries. Results indicate that in many countries, fertility started to decline in the late 1960s and 1970s in urban areas, and about 10 years later in rural areas, much earlier than usually thought. Placing a time frame at the onset of the fertility transition allows one to develop further analysis of the key determinants of the fertility transition. Emphasis is on the role of family planning programs, as well as on emerging independent individual behavior such as delayed marriage and induced abortions. Comparison is made with the situations of other developing countries, and with the possible role of mass media, in particular television.